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Global diabetes care_market_cmd2011

The document discusses the global diabetes care market and insulin market. It notes that diabetes is a growing global epidemic driven by lifestyle changes and demographics. The insulin market has seen sustained double-digit growth due to factors like increasing diagnosis and treatment rates, intensifying insulin regimens, and device penetration. Insulin consumption is expected to continue increasing significantly in coming decades. Modern insulin now constitutes over 80% of the insulin market by value due to upgrades in treatment. Characteristics of the insulin industry include a chronic disease leading to long patient-drug relationships and brand loyalty.

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Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 The global diabetes care market Kåre Schultz COO
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 2 Forward-looking statements Novo Nordisk’s reports filed with or furnished to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the company’s Annual Report 2010 and Form 20-F, both expected to be filed with the SEC in February 2011 as well as this document and written information released, or oral statements made, to the public in the future by or on behalf of Novo Nordisk, may contain forward-looking statements. Words such as ‘believe’, ‘expect’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘plan’, ’strategy’, ’prospect’, ’foresee’, ’estimate’, ’project’, ’anticipate’, ’can’, ’intend’, ‘target’ and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance identify forward-looking statements. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: - statements of plans, objectives or goals for future operations, including those related to Novo Nordisk’s products, product research, product development, product introductions and product approvals as well as cooperations in relation thereto, - statements containing projections of or targets for revenues, income (or loss), earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure or other net financials, - statements regarding future economic performance, future actions and outcome of contingencies such as legal proceedings, and - statements regarding the assumptions underlying or relating to such statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific. Novo Nordisk cautions that a number of important factors, including those described in this document, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in any forward-looking statements. Factors that may affect future results include, but are not limited to, global as well as local political and economic conditions, including interest rate and currency exchange rate fluctuations, delay or failure of projects related to research and/or development, unplanned loss of patents, interruptions of supplies and production, product recall, unexpected contract breaches or terminations, government-mandated or market-driven price decreases for Novo Nordisk’s products, introduction of competing products, reliance on information technology, Novo Nordisk’s ability to successfully market current and new products, exposure to product liability and legal proceedings and investigations, changes in governmental laws and interpretation thereof, including on reimbursement, intellectual property protection and regulatory controls on testing, approval, manufacturing and marketing, perceived or actual failure to adhere to ethical marketing practices, investments in and divestitures of domestic and foreign companies, unexpected growth in costs and expenses, failure to recruit and retain the right employees and failure to maintain a culture of compliance. Please also refer to the overview of risk factors in ‘Risk management’ of the Annual Report 2010 available as of 4 February 2011 on the company’s website (novonordisk.com). Unless required by law Novo Nordisk is under no duty and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement after the distribution of this document, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry Growth in global prescription sales versus diabetes care sales (CAGR) Total Prescription sales Diabetes Care sales Insulin and GLP-1 sales 18.4% 15.9% 12.3% 12.0% 10.7% 9.2% 7.8% 6.4% 3.6% 2000-2005 Source: EvaluatePharma, data retrieved January 21, 2011 2005-2010 2010-2015 Slide no 3
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 4 Diabetes market development Global insulin market by segments Global diabetes care market by treatment class DKK billion 200 OAD Insulin GLP-1 tMU 400 Total market: CAGR 11.4% 180 160 Injectables: CAGR 15.6% 140 CAGR volume: 7.1% CAGR value*: 14.3% 350 300 34% 250 Fast acting 120 31% 200 100 CAGR 14.3% 80 30% 35% 100 60 50 CAGR 7.8% 40 20 Premix 150 Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures Source: IMS 0 34% Long acting Feb 2006 Note: *in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS 36% Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 5 Sustained double-digit insulin market growth The fundamental growth drivers of the insulin market Global insulin market growth 2006-2011 DKK billion 100 Volume • Prevalence of diabetes • Diagnosis rates and treatment rates 20.7 bDKK 80 • Intensification of insulin regimens • Growing BMI 21.6 bDKK 60 • Life-length 40 44.4 bDKK 86.7 bDKK 20 Value • Conversion to new generations of insulin • Device penetration • Price changes 0 MAT Feb 2006 Volume contribution Mix/price contribution Source: IMS, Monthly MAT, value figures MAT Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 6 Globally, diabetes has become an epidemic - driven by lifestyle changes and demographics Estimated number of people with diabetes – projections appear conservative Million people CAGR: 2.2% 450 439 CAGR: 6.6% 300 100% All people with diabetes 400 350 Diagnosis and optimal treatment remains a challenge – the rule of halves International Operations 285 250 200 150 50% are diagnosed 151 JP, Korea Europe 100 China Japan Europe 50 0 2000 50% 2010 // North America N. America 2030 Source: International Diabetes Foundation: Diabetes Atlas, 2000 and 2009 Note: Data covers the 20-79 age-group. IO: International Operations, Japan includes Korea 25% 50% have access to care 50% get decent care 12% 50% reach target
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 7 The world is growing unhealthier Prevalence of overweight and obesity in selected countries Proportion of overweight and obese of population (%) 90% United States 80% Canada 70% England France 60% Italy 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Adapted from: Sassi, F. et al. 2009 “The Obesity Epidemic: Analysis of Past and Projected Future Trends in Selected OECD Countries”, OECD Health Working Papers, No. 45, OECD Publishing. Available at: http://www.ecoclimax.com/2010/10/past-and-projected-future-overweight.html 2020
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 8 Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970 Life expectancy at birth (weighted average) 69 years 56 years 1970 Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book 2010
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 9 Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970 Life expectancy at birth (weighted average) 82 years? 69 years 56 years 1970 Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book 2010 2050
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 10 Implied development in insulin consumption Insulin consumption in selected countries – average insulin units per inhabitant United States Germany United Kingdom Japan China 426 349 238 293 264 165 99 53 14 1 2000 Sources: Calculation based on IMS volume figures and United Nations Population Division demography data 2010
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 11 Modern insulin is replacing human insulin – as human insulin replaced animal insulin Share of total insulin volume 100% Modern insulin 80% 60% Human insulin 40% 20% 0% 1994 Animal insulin 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: IMS, annual volume figures 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 12 Modern insulin constitute more than 80% of the total insulin value market Share of total insulin value 100% Modern insulin 80% 60% Human insulin Human insulin 40% 20% 0% Animal insulin Animal insulin 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: IMS, monthly MAT value figures 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 13 Two-thirds of insulin volume is injected via a modern pen device Share of total insulin volume 100% Prefilled device 80% Durable device 60% 40% Vial and syringe 20% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: IMS, annual volume figures 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 14 Characteristics of the insulin industry • Chronic disease leading to life-long patient-drug relationship • Significant and growing patient population • Continuous upgrade of insulin treatment • • • • • Significant usage of modern pen devices Strong brand loyalty and limited switching between therapies Many prescribers requiring significant commercial operations High volume production with significant capital investment required Limited abbreviated regulatory pathways for approval of biosimilar insulin Significant growth Complex to be competitive
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 15 Novo Nordisk device development for improved insulin treatment 1923 - 1985 1985 - 2010
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 16 Diabetes is chronic disease leading to long patient-drug relationship Insulin treatment is generally characterised by strong brand loyalty and limited switching between therapies 12 years 8 years 54 years OAD treatment 74 years Insulin treatment Average life expectancy with type 2 diabetes Diagnosis of type 2 diabetes Sources: Calvert MJ, McManus RJ, Freemantle N (2007) Management of type 2 diabetes with multiple oral hypoglycaemic agents or insulin in primary care retrospective cohort study Br J Gen Pract 57: 455-60. The British Journal of Diabetes & Vascular Disease 2008 8:92. 2005 -2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/03/03/1025677/type-2-diabetes-linked-to-shorter.html#storylink=misearch. Lifeexpectancy in Individuals with type 2 Diabetes, Diabetes (2007); 56: (supp1): A596
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Novo Nordisk has significant operations across the world to remain competitive North America: ~4,000 FTEs Europe: ~3,100 FTEs Japan & Korea: ~900 FTEs China: ~2,100 FTEs International Operations: ~2,700 FTEs FTEs represent full-time employee equivalents in Novo Nordisk’s sales regions (excludes a.o. employees in headquarter and manufacturing) Slide no 17
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 18 Insulin manufacturing process API: insulin crystals Fermentation Recovery Purification F&F: liquid form Formulation Filling Device & packaging Assembly Packaging
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Novo Nordisk’s global manufacturing setup • • • • • Clayton • Formulation & filling • Assembly • Packaging API production Formulation & filling Assembly Packaging Device & needle manufacturing Denmark Chartres • Formulation & filling • Assembly • Packaging Montes Claros • Formulation & filling • Assembly • Packaging Tianjin • Device manufacturing • Packaging • Filling plant project Koriyama • Packaging Slide no 19
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 20 Novo Nordisk has sustained a global insulin market leadership position… Insulin value market share worldwide Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Insulin volume market share worldwide Novo Nordisk Others 70% 60% Eli Lilly Others 60% 50% Sanofi-Aventis 70% 50% 51% 44% 40% 33% 30% 40% 30% 23% 22% 20% 20% 22% 10% 10% 4% 1% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 21 …through focus on improvements for patients… Modern insulin global volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Prefilled device global insulin volume market share FlexPen® Others SoloStar® KwikPen® 30% 70% 60% 46% 50% 40% 19% 20% 34% 30% 19% 20% 10% 10% 3% 10% 1% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 22 …with a strong portfolio of modern insulins Novo Nordisk’s modern insulins’ global insulin volume market share Strong current portfolio NovoMix® NovoRapid® Levemir® 20% 14% 9% 10% 6% 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 23 Novo Nordisk is now also expanding into earlier treatment and growing the GLP-1 class Victoza® is driving the expansion of the global GLP-1 market GLP-1 sales in bDKK (right axis) Diabetes market share (value) 5% North America constitutes the majority of the GLP-1 value market* DKK billion 7 6 4% Victoza® Rest of world Europe 5 26% 3% 4 3 2% exenatide 72% 2 1% North America 1 0% 0 Feb 2011 Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK) *Annual value of diabetes market MAT February 2011 Source: IMS, Monthly value data (DKK)
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 The diabetes care market in the US Jurek Gruhn SVP Region North America
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day Outline • The diabetes challenge • Treatment of diabetes today • Victoza® performance • Insulin market performance • Focus areas and priorities 5 May 2011 Slide no 25
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 26 Today, diabetes affects more than 32 million Americans Increasing prevalence of diabetes 2010: ~32 million <6% 6-7% 2015: ~40 million 8-9% 10-11% 12-13% 2025: ~53 million 14-15% 16-17% Note: Improvements in therapies and medical management over time are factored in. Sources: CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Narayan, Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden, Diabetes Care 2006;29:2114-2116; Boyle, Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population, http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/8/1/29; Institute for Alternative Futures projections 18-19%
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 27 Associated costs of diabetes represent a significant and increasing economic burden for society Total annual direct medical and indirect societal costs of diabetes (billion USD) 2010: 299 bUSD 36 bUSD 2015: 374 bUSD 2025: 514 bUSD 64 bUSD 46 bUSD 30 bUSD <1b 37 bUSD 21 bUSD 1-2.9b 3-4.9b 5-9.9b 52 bUSD 27 bUSD 40 bUSD 10-14.9b 15-24.9b Sources: CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Narayan, Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden, Diabetes Care 2006;29:2114-2116; CDC, 2010 National Diabetes Fact Sheet; Boyle, Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population, http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/8/1/29; Institute for Alternative Futures projections >25b
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day Treatment of diabetes in the US today Share of patients by treatment class Insulin 24% Incretin 10% OAD - Met/SU/TZD 55% Rapid-only 14% Premix-only 14% Basal-Bolus 29% Basal-only 40% GLP-1 - 20% Diet & Exercise 11% Note: Insulin data include treatment with concomitant non-insulin products Source: IMS LRx Monthly Regime, 12/10 PROJECTED to Mattson Jack, NHANES IV and Ropers 2010 DPP-4s 80% 5 May 2011 Slide no 28
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 29 In the US, the insulin market is outgrowing the overall diabetes care market US diabetes care market by treatment class DKK billion 120 100 OAD Insulin US insulin volume market by segments tMU GLP-1 120 100 Total market: CAGR 12.0% 80 60 Fast acting 80 60 40 CAGR 5.6% 20 0 Premix CAGR 18.9% 40 CAGR volume: 5.8% CAGR value*: 18.9% Feb 2006 20 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures Source: IMS 0 Long acting Feb 2006 Note: * in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 30 Victoza® continues to drive GLP-1 growth Expansion of the GLP-1 market GLP-1 TRx scripts (thousands) 300 Victoza® source of patients Number of patients (thousands) GLP-1 % of of diabetes market value (right axis) 6% 5% 250 200 5 4 exenatide DPP-IV TZD ± met 4% Victoza® 3 150 100 Insulin 3% 2% SU ± met 2 exenatide 1% 50 64% Metformin 1 Naïve 0 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Source: IMS, NPA Monthly data; IMS LRx Weekly Data 0% 0 Mar 2010 Note: Naïve is defined as all patients who have not filled a prescription in 12 months Source: IMS, NPA Monthly data; IMS LRx 4 week average Naive and Switch/Add Script Counts Mar 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 31 Volume growth and value upgrade drive insulin market value expansion US insulin value market growth DKK billion 60 Value upgrade Penetration of total market 80% Modern insulin penetration 70% 50 73% 60% 18.5 bDKK 40 50% 30 20 10 40% 9.0 bDKK 30% 19.9 bDKK 47.4 bDKK Device penetration 27% 20% 10% 0 0% February 2006 Volume growth Mix/price growth Note: Monthly MAT, value figures Source: IMS February 2011 Feb 2006 Note: Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 32 Novo Nordisk has increased overall insulin market share in the US US total insulin volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis US total insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Eli Lilly 70% Eli Lilly 70% 60% Sanofi-Aventis 60% 50% 42% 40% 50% 37% 40% 32% 30% 26% 20% 26% 20% 10% 10% 0% 37% 30% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS 0% Feb 2006 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK) Source: IMS Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 33 Novo Nordisk has increased modern insulin market share in the US US modern insulin volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis US modern insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Eli Lilly 70% Eli Lilly 70% 60% Sanofi-Aventis 60% 50% 44% 37% 40% 50% 42% 40% 30% 20% 37% 30% 20% 19% 10% 10% 0% 21% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS 0% Feb 2006 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK) Source: IMS Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 34 Insulin market shares and dynamics US total insulin market shares by segment Novo Nordisk Short acting segment Insulin market share (volume) 100% Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Conversion rate to modern insulin Premix segment 100% Long acting segment 100% 80% 80% 80% 60% 60% 60% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 0% Source: IMS, Monthly MAT volume figures Feb 2006 Feb 2011 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Focus areas for the US • Expand Victoza® prescribing base and access • Continue modern insulin strategy of value creation by balancing profitability and access • Preparing for a successful launch of Degludec and DegludecPlus Slide no 35
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 The diabetes care market in China Ron Christie SVP Region China
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 37 China is evolving as the world’s #3 pharma market 2009 Rank 2011 Rank 2013 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 United States Japan France Germany China Italy Spain United Kingdom Brazil Canada 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 United States Japan China Germany France Italy Spain Brazil United Kingdom Canada 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 United States Japan China Germany France Italy Spain Brazil Canada United Kingdom 11 Russia 11 Russia 11 Russia 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Turkey India Mexico South Korea Australia Greece Venezuela Netherlands Poland 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 India South Korea Venezuela Mexico Australia Turkey Greece Poland Netherlands 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Venezuela India South Korea Turkey Mexico Australia Greece Poland Belgium Source: IMS Health MIDAS, Market Prognosis October 2009. Market size ranking in constant USD
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 38 This growth has been driven by five major factors China’s pharmaceutical market is estimated to grow 20% per annum 2010-2015 Robust economic growth • World #2 economy in 2010 • 8% GDP growth for the next 5 years (government target 7.5%) Ageing population • 2006-2010: +46 million >50 years old • 2010-2020: +180 million more Increasing incidence of chronic diseases • Latest study estimates 92 million people with diabetes • Obese population tripled from 2002 to 2010 Sweeping healthcare reforms • Broaden coverage and benefits • Strengthen primary care and rural healthcare services • Improve disease prevention and early diagnosis Increased investment from all players • Increasing M&A activity Source: IMS RDPAC presentation March 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 39 Substantial growth in diabetes prevalence expected in the BRIC countries Diagnosis, treatment intensification and regional difference remains key challenges Driven by prevalence growth in the BRIC countries % of people with diabetes 100 Million people 100 2010 87 2030 80 80 64 60 60 51 44 40 40 20 8 13 10 30% 24% 20 10 3% 0 0 Brazil Russia India China People with diabetes Source: International Diabetes Foundation: Diabetes Atlas, 2000 and 2009 Note: Data covers the 20-79 age-group. IO: International Operations, Japan includes Korea Diagnosed diabetics Treated diabetics Patients achieving targets
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 40 Changing Diabetes® in China - increasing awareness and diagnosis • Insulin Patient Self-management Guideline, CDS-NN • Changing Diabetes® bus: 3 years, 61 cities, 46,000 patients and ~200 media reports • 12 more cities will be covered in 2011 • Diabetes knowledge websites for both patients and physicians • GDM program: 3-year, World Diabetes Foundation-Ministry of Health-Novo Nordisk programme: • Establish 45 centres, train 4,725 physicians and screen 292,500 women • Localised “Barometer” Programme — Diabetes Care Campaign: • Covered 90 hospitals + 200 CHC, 45,952 patients screened, 1,690 physicians and nurses educated • Social Network for Endocrinologists in China & Medical Information Website: launched in Feb 2011 • Leadership foras • NNDU • NovoCare – serving more than 600,000 members since 2011 • Provide comprehensive diabetes knowledge for patients and organise a variety of patient activities • 24-hour hotline service - >9000 calls per month • Patients follow-up calls to ensure successful insulin initiation - >66,000 calls per month
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 41 Novo Nordisk is the company with the largest focus on diabetes care in China A • • • • • total of 3,375 employees across Commercial operations in China Manufacturing R&D Hong Kong Taiwan Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Tibet Liaoning Beijing Shenyang Tianjing Hebei Ningxia Qinghai Shanxi Jinan Shandong Shanxi Henan Jiangsu Shanghai Hubei Chongqing Anhui Sichuan Wuhan Zhejiang Guizhou Hunan Jiangxi Gansu Yunnan Inner Mongolia Fujian Guangxi Guangzhou Taiwan Guangdong Branch Office Frontiers Changchun Hainan Hong Kong
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 42 The Chinese insulin market is expanding significantly predominately driven by the premix segment Chinese diabetes care market by treatment class by value DKK billion 6 5 OAD Insulin Chinese insulin market by segments GLP-1 tMU 24 CAGR volume: 26.8% CAGR value*: 38.8% 20 Total market: CAGR 32.4% 23% 16 4 Fast acting 12 3 CAGR 38.8% 64% 8 33% 2 4 53% CAGR 27.8% 1 Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals Source: IMS 0 Premix 14% Long acting Feb 2006 Note: *in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals Source: IMS 13% Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 43 Novo Nordisk is leading the total diabetes market in China… Total diabetes care value market shares 40% Novo Nordisk Bayer-Schering Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Bristol Myers-Squibb Total insulin volume market shares 37% Novo Nordisk Shanghai Fosun 70% Sanofi-Aventis Tonghua Dongbao Eli Lilly 63% 60% 30% 50% 40% 20% 15% 10% 30% 9% 20% 6% 0% Feb 2006 13% 12% 5% 4% 10% 4% Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 44 …and maintaining clear leadership in the significant human insulin market… Human insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Tonghua Dongbao Human insulin volume market share Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Tonghua Dongbao Eli Lilly 90% 90% 80% 76% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 74% 30% 20% 17% 20% 17% 10% 6% 10% 8% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures. 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 45 …and maintaining a very solid leadership position in the modern insulin market Modern insulin value market share Novo Nordisk 90% Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Modern insulin volume market share BJ Ganli Pharm Novo Nordisk 80% BJ Ganli Pharm 80% 70% Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly 90% 70% 60% 53% 50% 69% 60% 50% 40% 32% 30% 20% 40% 30% 20% 8% 10% 6% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures 15% 11% 10% 0% 4% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 46 Outlook for Novo Nordisk in China • Continue to collaborate with public authorities on diabetes awareness programmes • Continue to be the main source of information on diabetes to doctors • Continue to be the leading patient support company in the diabetes field • Expand operations further into smaller cities and rural areas • Launch of Victoza® in second half of 2011
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Closing remarks Kåre Schultz COO
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 48 Innovation is the key to sustained growth Diabetes Modern insulins Victoza® Degludec* DegludecPlus* IDegLira* FIAsp* *Note: Degludec is the internal designation for insulin degludec. DegludecPlus is the internal designation for insulin degludec/insulin aspart. IDegLira is the internal designation for insulin degludec/liraglutide. FIAsp is the internal designation for fast acting insulin aspart. Liraglutide in pre-diabetes and obesity
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 49 Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry Growth in global prescription sales versus diabetes care sales (CAGR) Total Prescription sales Diabetes Care sales Insulin and GLP-1 sales 18.4% 15.9% 12.3% 12.0% 10.7% 9.2% 7.8% 6.4% 3.6% 2000-2005 Source: EvaluatePharma, data retrieved January 21, 2011 2005-2010 2010-2015

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Global diabetes care_market_cmd2011

  • 1.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 The global diabetes care market Kåre Schultz COO
  • 2.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 2 Forward-looking statements Novo Nordisk’s reports filed with or furnished to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the company’s Annual Report 2010 and Form 20-F, both expected to be filed with the SEC in February 2011 as well as this document and written information released, or oral statements made, to the public in the future by or on behalf of Novo Nordisk, may contain forward-looking statements. Words such as ‘believe’, ‘expect’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘plan’, ’strategy’, ’prospect’, ’foresee’, ’estimate’, ’project’, ’anticipate’, ’can’, ’intend’, ‘target’ and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance identify forward-looking statements. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: - statements of plans, objectives or goals for future operations, including those related to Novo Nordisk’s products, product research, product development, product introductions and product approvals as well as cooperations in relation thereto, - statements containing projections of or targets for revenues, income (or loss), earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure or other net financials, - statements regarding future economic performance, future actions and outcome of contingencies such as legal proceedings, and - statements regarding the assumptions underlying or relating to such statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific. Novo Nordisk cautions that a number of important factors, including those described in this document, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in any forward-looking statements. Factors that may affect future results include, but are not limited to, global as well as local political and economic conditions, including interest rate and currency exchange rate fluctuations, delay or failure of projects related to research and/or development, unplanned loss of patents, interruptions of supplies and production, product recall, unexpected contract breaches or terminations, government-mandated or market-driven price decreases for Novo Nordisk’s products, introduction of competing products, reliance on information technology, Novo Nordisk’s ability to successfully market current and new products, exposure to product liability and legal proceedings and investigations, changes in governmental laws and interpretation thereof, including on reimbursement, intellectual property protection and regulatory controls on testing, approval, manufacturing and marketing, perceived or actual failure to adhere to ethical marketing practices, investments in and divestitures of domestic and foreign companies, unexpected growth in costs and expenses, failure to recruit and retain the right employees and failure to maintain a culture of compliance. Please also refer to the overview of risk factors in ‘Risk management’ of the Annual Report 2010 available as of 4 February 2011 on the company’s website (novonordisk.com). Unless required by law Novo Nordisk is under no duty and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement after the distribution of this document, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
  • 3.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry Growth in global prescription sales versus diabetes care sales (CAGR) Total Prescription sales Diabetes Care sales Insulin and GLP-1 sales 18.4% 15.9% 12.3% 12.0% 10.7% 9.2% 7.8% 6.4% 3.6% 2000-2005 Source: EvaluatePharma, data retrieved January 21, 2011 2005-2010 2010-2015 Slide no 3
  • 4.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 4 Diabetes market development Global insulin market by segments Global diabetes care market by treatment class DKK billion 200 OAD Insulin GLP-1 tMU 400 Total market: CAGR 11.4% 180 160 Injectables: CAGR 15.6% 140 CAGR volume: 7.1% CAGR value*: 14.3% 350 300 34% 250 Fast acting 120 31% 200 100 CAGR 14.3% 80 30% 35% 100 60 50 CAGR 7.8% 40 20 Premix 150 Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures Source: IMS 0 34% Long acting Feb 2006 Note: *in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS 36% Feb 2011
  • 5.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 5 Sustained double-digit insulin market growth The fundamental growth drivers of the insulin market Global insulin market growth 2006-2011 DKK billion 100 Volume • Prevalence of diabetes • Diagnosis rates and treatment rates 20.7 bDKK 80 • Intensification of insulin regimens • Growing BMI 21.6 bDKK 60 • Life-length 40 44.4 bDKK 86.7 bDKK 20 Value • Conversion to new generations of insulin • Device penetration • Price changes 0 MAT Feb 2006 Volume contribution Mix/price contribution Source: IMS, Monthly MAT, value figures MAT Feb 2011
  • 6.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 6 Globally, diabetes has become an epidemic - driven by lifestyle changes and demographics Estimated number of people with diabetes – projections appear conservative Million people CAGR: 2.2% 450 439 CAGR: 6.6% 300 100% All people with diabetes 400 350 Diagnosis and optimal treatment remains a challenge – the rule of halves International Operations 285 250 200 150 50% are diagnosed 151 JP, Korea Europe 100 China Japan Europe 50 0 2000 50% 2010 // North America N. America 2030 Source: International Diabetes Foundation: Diabetes Atlas, 2000 and 2009 Note: Data covers the 20-79 age-group. IO: International Operations, Japan includes Korea 25% 50% have access to care 50% get decent care 12% 50% reach target
  • 7.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 7 The world is growing unhealthier Prevalence of overweight and obesity in selected countries Proportion of overweight and obese of population (%) 90% United States 80% Canada 70% England France 60% Italy 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Adapted from: Sassi, F. et al. 2009 “The Obesity Epidemic: Analysis of Past and Projected Future Trends in Selected OECD Countries”, OECD Health Working Papers, No. 45, OECD Publishing. Available at: http://www.ecoclimax.com/2010/10/past-and-projected-future-overweight.html 2020
  • 8.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 8 Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970 Life expectancy at birth (weighted average) 69 years 56 years 1970 Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book 2010
  • 9.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 9 Life expectancy has on average risen by 4 months each year since 1970 Life expectancy at birth (weighted average) 82 years? 69 years 56 years 1970 Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book 2010 2050
  • 10.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 10 Implied development in insulin consumption Insulin consumption in selected countries – average insulin units per inhabitant United States Germany United Kingdom Japan China 426 349 238 293 264 165 99 53 14 1 2000 Sources: Calculation based on IMS volume figures and United Nations Population Division demography data 2010
  • 11.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 11 Modern insulin is replacing human insulin – as human insulin replaced animal insulin Share of total insulin volume 100% Modern insulin 80% 60% Human insulin 40% 20% 0% 1994 Animal insulin 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: IMS, annual volume figures 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 12.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 12 Modern insulin constitute more than 80% of the total insulin value market Share of total insulin value 100% Modern insulin 80% 60% Human insulin Human insulin 40% 20% 0% Animal insulin Animal insulin 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: IMS, monthly MAT value figures 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 13.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 13 Two-thirds of insulin volume is injected via a modern pen device Share of total insulin volume 100% Prefilled device 80% Durable device 60% 40% Vial and syringe 20% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: IMS, annual volume figures 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 14.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 14 Characteristics of the insulin industry • Chronic disease leading to life-long patient-drug relationship • Significant and growing patient population • Continuous upgrade of insulin treatment • • • • • Significant usage of modern pen devices Strong brand loyalty and limited switching between therapies Many prescribers requiring significant commercial operations High volume production with significant capital investment required Limited abbreviated regulatory pathways for approval of biosimilar insulin Significant growth Complex to be competitive
  • 15.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 15 Novo Nordisk device development for improved insulin treatment 1923 - 1985 1985 - 2010
  • 16.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 16 Diabetes is chronic disease leading to long patient-drug relationship Insulin treatment is generally characterised by strong brand loyalty and limited switching between therapies 12 years 8 years 54 years OAD treatment 74 years Insulin treatment Average life expectancy with type 2 diabetes Diagnosis of type 2 diabetes Sources: Calvert MJ, McManus RJ, Freemantle N (2007) Management of type 2 diabetes with multiple oral hypoglycaemic agents or insulin in primary care retrospective cohort study Br J Gen Pract 57: 455-60. The British Journal of Diabetes & Vascular Disease 2008 8:92. 2005 -2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/03/03/1025677/type-2-diabetes-linked-to-shorter.html#storylink=misearch. Lifeexpectancy in Individuals with type 2 Diabetes, Diabetes (2007); 56: (supp1): A596
  • 17.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Novo Nordisk has significant operations across the world to remain competitive North America: ~4,000 FTEs Europe: ~3,100 FTEs Japan & Korea: ~900 FTEs China: ~2,100 FTEs International Operations: ~2,700 FTEs FTEs represent full-time employee equivalents in Novo Nordisk’s sales regions (excludes a.o. employees in headquarter and manufacturing) Slide no 17
  • 18.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 18 Insulin manufacturing process API: insulin crystals Fermentation Recovery Purification F&F: liquid form Formulation Filling Device & packaging Assembly Packaging
  • 19.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Novo Nordisk’s global manufacturing setup • • • • • Clayton • Formulation & filling • Assembly • Packaging API production Formulation & filling Assembly Packaging Device & needle manufacturing Denmark Chartres • Formulation & filling • Assembly • Packaging Montes Claros • Formulation & filling • Assembly • Packaging Tianjin • Device manufacturing • Packaging • Filling plant project Koriyama • Packaging Slide no 19
  • 20.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 20 Novo Nordisk has sustained a global insulin market leadership position… Insulin value market share worldwide Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Insulin volume market share worldwide Novo Nordisk Others 70% 60% Eli Lilly Others 60% 50% Sanofi-Aventis 70% 50% 51% 44% 40% 33% 30% 40% 30% 23% 22% 20% 20% 22% 10% 10% 4% 1% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
  • 21.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 21 …through focus on improvements for patients… Modern insulin global volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Prefilled device global insulin volume market share FlexPen® Others SoloStar® KwikPen® 30% 70% 60% 46% 50% 40% 19% 20% 34% 30% 19% 20% 10% 10% 3% 10% 1% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
  • 22.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 22 …with a strong portfolio of modern insulins Novo Nordisk’s modern insulins’ global insulin volume market share Strong current portfolio NovoMix® NovoRapid® Levemir® 20% 14% 9% 10% 6% 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
  • 23.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 23 Novo Nordisk is now also expanding into earlier treatment and growing the GLP-1 class Victoza® is driving the expansion of the global GLP-1 market GLP-1 sales in bDKK (right axis) Diabetes market share (value) 5% North America constitutes the majority of the GLP-1 value market* DKK billion 7 6 4% Victoza® Rest of world Europe 5 26% 3% 4 3 2% exenatide 72% 2 1% North America 1 0% 0 Feb 2011 Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK) *Annual value of diabetes market MAT February 2011 Source: IMS, Monthly value data (DKK)
  • 24.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 The diabetes care market in the US Jurek Gruhn SVP Region North America
  • 25.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day Outline • The diabetes challenge • Treatment of diabetes today • Victoza® performance • Insulin market performance • Focus areas and priorities 5 May 2011 Slide no 25
  • 26.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 26 Today, diabetes affects more than 32 million Americans Increasing prevalence of diabetes 2010: ~32 million <6% 6-7% 2015: ~40 million 8-9% 10-11% 12-13% 2025: ~53 million 14-15% 16-17% Note: Improvements in therapies and medical management over time are factored in. Sources: CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Narayan, Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden, Diabetes Care 2006;29:2114-2116; Boyle, Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population, http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/8/1/29; Institute for Alternative Futures projections 18-19%
  • 27.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 27 Associated costs of diabetes represent a significant and increasing economic burden for society Total annual direct medical and indirect societal costs of diabetes (billion USD) 2010: 299 bUSD 36 bUSD 2015: 374 bUSD 2025: 514 bUSD 64 bUSD 46 bUSD 30 bUSD <1b 37 bUSD 21 bUSD 1-2.9b 3-4.9b 5-9.9b 52 bUSD 27 bUSD 40 bUSD 10-14.9b 15-24.9b Sources: CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Narayan, Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden, Diabetes Care 2006;29:2114-2116; CDC, 2010 National Diabetes Fact Sheet; Boyle, Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population, http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/8/1/29; Institute for Alternative Futures projections >25b
  • 28.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day Treatment of diabetes in the US today Share of patients by treatment class Insulin 24% Incretin 10% OAD - Met/SU/TZD 55% Rapid-only 14% Premix-only 14% Basal-Bolus 29% Basal-only 40% GLP-1 - 20% Diet & Exercise 11% Note: Insulin data include treatment with concomitant non-insulin products Source: IMS LRx Monthly Regime, 12/10 PROJECTED to Mattson Jack, NHANES IV and Ropers 2010 DPP-4s 80% 5 May 2011 Slide no 28
  • 29.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 29 In the US, the insulin market is outgrowing the overall diabetes care market US diabetes care market by treatment class DKK billion 120 100 OAD Insulin US insulin volume market by segments tMU GLP-1 120 100 Total market: CAGR 12.0% 80 60 Fast acting 80 60 40 CAGR 5.6% 20 0 Premix CAGR 18.9% 40 CAGR volume: 5.8% CAGR value*: 18.9% Feb 2006 20 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures Source: IMS 0 Long acting Feb 2006 Note: * in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS Feb 2011
  • 30.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 30 Victoza® continues to drive GLP-1 growth Expansion of the GLP-1 market GLP-1 TRx scripts (thousands) 300 Victoza® source of patients Number of patients (thousands) GLP-1 % of of diabetes market value (right axis) 6% 5% 250 200 5 4 exenatide DPP-IV TZD ± met 4% Victoza® 3 150 100 Insulin 3% 2% SU ± met 2 exenatide 1% 50 64% Metformin 1 Naïve 0 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Source: IMS, NPA Monthly data; IMS LRx Weekly Data 0% 0 Mar 2010 Note: Naïve is defined as all patients who have not filled a prescription in 12 months Source: IMS, NPA Monthly data; IMS LRx 4 week average Naive and Switch/Add Script Counts Mar 2011
  • 31.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 31 Volume growth and value upgrade drive insulin market value expansion US insulin value market growth DKK billion 60 Value upgrade Penetration of total market 80% Modern insulin penetration 70% 50 73% 60% 18.5 bDKK 40 50% 30 20 10 40% 9.0 bDKK 30% 19.9 bDKK 47.4 bDKK Device penetration 27% 20% 10% 0 0% February 2006 Volume growth Mix/price growth Note: Monthly MAT, value figures Source: IMS February 2011 Feb 2006 Note: Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS Feb 2011
  • 32.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 32 Novo Nordisk has increased overall insulin market share in the US US total insulin volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis US total insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Eli Lilly 70% Eli Lilly 70% 60% Sanofi-Aventis 60% 50% 42% 40% 50% 37% 40% 32% 30% 26% 20% 26% 20% 10% 10% 0% 37% 30% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS 0% Feb 2006 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK) Source: IMS Feb 2011
  • 33.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 33 Novo Nordisk has increased modern insulin market share in the US US modern insulin volume market share Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis US modern insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Eli Lilly 70% Eli Lilly 70% 60% Sanofi-Aventis 60% 50% 44% 37% 40% 50% 42% 40% 30% 20% 37% 30% 20% 19% 10% 10% 0% 21% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, volume figures Source: IMS 0% Feb 2006 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK) Source: IMS Feb 2011
  • 34.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 34 Insulin market shares and dynamics US total insulin market shares by segment Novo Nordisk Short acting segment Insulin market share (volume) 100% Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Conversion rate to modern insulin Premix segment 100% Long acting segment 100% 80% 80% 80% 60% 60% 60% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 0% Source: IMS, Monthly MAT volume figures Feb 2006 Feb 2011 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011
  • 35.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Focus areas for the US • Expand Victoza® prescribing base and access • Continue modern insulin strategy of value creation by balancing profitability and access • Preparing for a successful launch of Degludec and DegludecPlus Slide no 35
  • 36.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 The diabetes care market in China Ron Christie SVP Region China
  • 37.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 37 China is evolving as the world’s #3 pharma market 2009 Rank 2011 Rank 2013 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 United States Japan France Germany China Italy Spain United Kingdom Brazil Canada 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 United States Japan China Germany France Italy Spain Brazil United Kingdom Canada 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 United States Japan China Germany France Italy Spain Brazil Canada United Kingdom 11 Russia 11 Russia 11 Russia 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Turkey India Mexico South Korea Australia Greece Venezuela Netherlands Poland 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 India South Korea Venezuela Mexico Australia Turkey Greece Poland Netherlands 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Venezuela India South Korea Turkey Mexico Australia Greece Poland Belgium Source: IMS Health MIDAS, Market Prognosis October 2009. Market size ranking in constant USD
  • 38.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 38 This growth has been driven by five major factors China’s pharmaceutical market is estimated to grow 20% per annum 2010-2015 Robust economic growth • World #2 economy in 2010 • 8% GDP growth for the next 5 years (government target 7.5%) Ageing population • 2006-2010: +46 million >50 years old • 2010-2020: +180 million more Increasing incidence of chronic diseases • Latest study estimates 92 million people with diabetes • Obese population tripled from 2002 to 2010 Sweeping healthcare reforms • Broaden coverage and benefits • Strengthen primary care and rural healthcare services • Improve disease prevention and early diagnosis Increased investment from all players • Increasing M&A activity Source: IMS RDPAC presentation March 2011
  • 39.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 39 Substantial growth in diabetes prevalence expected in the BRIC countries Diagnosis, treatment intensification and regional difference remains key challenges Driven by prevalence growth in the BRIC countries % of people with diabetes 100 Million people 100 2010 87 2030 80 80 64 60 60 51 44 40 40 20 8 13 10 30% 24% 20 10 3% 0 0 Brazil Russia India China People with diabetes Source: International Diabetes Foundation: Diabetes Atlas, 2000 and 2009 Note: Data covers the 20-79 age-group. IO: International Operations, Japan includes Korea Diagnosed diabetics Treated diabetics Patients achieving targets
  • 40.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 40 Changing Diabetes® in China - increasing awareness and diagnosis • Insulin Patient Self-management Guideline, CDS-NN • Changing Diabetes® bus: 3 years, 61 cities, 46,000 patients and ~200 media reports • 12 more cities will be covered in 2011 • Diabetes knowledge websites for both patients and physicians • GDM program: 3-year, World Diabetes Foundation-Ministry of Health-Novo Nordisk programme: • Establish 45 centres, train 4,725 physicians and screen 292,500 women • Localised “Barometer” Programme — Diabetes Care Campaign: • Covered 90 hospitals + 200 CHC, 45,952 patients screened, 1,690 physicians and nurses educated • Social Network for Endocrinologists in China & Medical Information Website: launched in Feb 2011 • Leadership foras • NNDU • NovoCare – serving more than 600,000 members since 2011 • Provide comprehensive diabetes knowledge for patients and organise a variety of patient activities • 24-hour hotline service - >9000 calls per month • Patients follow-up calls to ensure successful insulin initiation - >66,000 calls per month
  • 41.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 41 Novo Nordisk is the company with the largest focus on diabetes care in China A • • • • • total of 3,375 employees across Commercial operations in China Manufacturing R&D Hong Kong Taiwan Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Tibet Liaoning Beijing Shenyang Tianjing Hebei Ningxia Qinghai Shanxi Jinan Shandong Shanxi Henan Jiangsu Shanghai Hubei Chongqing Anhui Sichuan Wuhan Zhejiang Guizhou Hunan Jiangxi Gansu Yunnan Inner Mongolia Fujian Guangxi Guangzhou Taiwan Guangdong Branch Office Frontiers Changchun Hainan Hong Kong
  • 42.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 42 The Chinese insulin market is expanding significantly predominately driven by the premix segment Chinese diabetes care market by treatment class by value DKK billion 6 5 OAD Insulin Chinese insulin market by segments GLP-1 tMU 24 CAGR volume: 26.8% CAGR value*: 38.8% 20 Total market: CAGR 32.4% 23% 16 4 Fast acting 12 3 CAGR 38.8% 64% 8 33% 2 4 53% CAGR 27.8% 1 Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals Source: IMS 0 Premix 14% Long acting Feb 2006 Note: *in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals Source: IMS 13% Feb 2011
  • 43.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 43 Novo Nordisk is leading the total diabetes market in China… Total diabetes care value market shares 40% Novo Nordisk Bayer-Schering Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Bristol Myers-Squibb Total insulin volume market shares 37% Novo Nordisk Shanghai Fosun 70% Sanofi-Aventis Tonghua Dongbao Eli Lilly 63% 60% 30% 50% 40% 20% 15% 10% 30% 9% 20% 6% 0% Feb 2006 13% 12% 5% 4% 10% 4% Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures. IMS projects the Chinese market based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals Feb 2011
  • 44.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 44 …and maintaining clear leadership in the significant human insulin market… Human insulin value market share Novo Nordisk Tonghua Dongbao Human insulin volume market share Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Tonghua Dongbao Eli Lilly 90% 90% 80% 76% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 74% 30% 20% 17% 20% 17% 10% 6% 10% 8% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures. 0% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
  • 45.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 45 …and maintaining a very solid leadership position in the modern insulin market Modern insulin value market share Novo Nordisk 90% Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Modern insulin volume market share BJ Ganli Pharm Novo Nordisk 80% BJ Ganli Pharm 80% 70% Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly 90% 70% 60% 53% 50% 69% 60% 50% 40% 32% 30% 20% 40% 30% 20% 8% 10% 6% 0% Feb 2006 Feb 2011 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures 15% 11% 10% 0% 4% Feb 2006 Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures Feb 2011
  • 46.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 46 Outlook for Novo Nordisk in China • Continue to collaborate with public authorities on diabetes awareness programmes • Continue to be the main source of information on diabetes to doctors • Continue to be the leading patient support company in the diabetes field • Expand operations further into smaller cities and rural areas • Launch of Victoza® in second half of 2011
  • 47.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Closing remarks Kåre Schultz COO
  • 48.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 48 Innovation is the key to sustained growth Diabetes Modern insulins Victoza® Degludec* DegludecPlus* IDegLira* FIAsp* *Note: Degludec is the internal designation for insulin degludec. DegludecPlus is the internal designation for insulin degludec/insulin aspart. IDegLira is the internal designation for insulin degludec/liraglutide. FIAsp is the internal designation for fast acting insulin aspart. Liraglutide in pre-diabetes and obesity
  • 49.
    Novo Nordisk CapitalMarkets Day 5 May 2011 Slide no 49 Capital markets expect diabetes care to continue to outgrow the general pharmaceutical industry Growth in global prescription sales versus diabetes care sales (CAGR) Total Prescription sales Diabetes Care sales Insulin and GLP-1 sales 18.4% 15.9% 12.3% 12.0% 10.7% 9.2% 7.8% 6.4% 3.6% 2000-2005 Source: EvaluatePharma, data retrieved January 21, 2011 2005-2010 2010-2015