Technical analysis of corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee and cocoa futures

1. General comments:
• DXY overshooting technical target this week along with a selloff in global bonds. New technical
target is 110.
• Ags were mixed. Softs softened and grains toughened. In the face of strong dollar, we read grain’s
resilience more strongly than current charts can tell:
• Corn: regaining the 50-day MA in strong move up despite strong dollar.
• Wheat: remained within its low volatility zone and successfully retested support.
• Soybeans: low volatility contrasts last week’s high volatility and strong moves in outside
markets.
• Coffee: slowly moving down towards support, with risk of it falling off the table.
• Sugar: corrective wave a takes price down to previous support @ 20.
• Cocoa: strong bearish momentum found it hard to break. Week closes well off lows again,
creating conditions for, possibly, some relief.
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 18, 2016

2. CBOT Corn (daily chart):
• Very encouraging last two days for corn as it successfully retested the support area earlier in the
week and regained the 50-day moving average. This ,despite strong dollar.
• Next resistance is 354, along with the 20-day MA.
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 18, 2016
R = 354
R = 369
R = 390
Support area

3. CBOT Wheat (daily chart):
• Wheat continues to experience very low volatility within the 410 – 430 zone, and to digest a lot of
information without moving much. After re-testing the year lows, it has bounced back to the 20
and 50 day moving averages.
• Even the slightest strength is notable, given the strength of the US Dollar.
Nov. 18, 2016
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com

4. CBOT Soybeans (daily chart):
• Price experienced very low volatility constrained between the 20 and 50 day moving averages.
This week’s low volatility contrasts with last week’s and with significant moves in outside markets.
Given that this is taking place above support levels, we interpret this as strength.
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 18, 2016

5. ICE Coffee (daily chart):
• Closely watching H7 coffee has been nerve-wreaking . Slow-drip, anyone? Despite falling open
interest (net long), price only slowly drifted towards the 50-day moving average and the 160
support level. With some imagination, one can see a head and shoulders being formed with a
very bearish neckline but, for this to be confirmed, price needs to cut through 160 and then 157.
For now, uptrend is still intact.
Previous resistance area
20 cts/lb range
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 18, 2016

6. ICE Sugar (weekly chart):
• Corrective wave has taken price to a previous support level of 20. The analysis continues to be:
• We are seeing a correction that marks the end of impulse wave III. Expectations purely based
on Elliott Wave Theory are for an a-b-c correction, and then a V impulse wave to new highs.
I
II
III
i
ii
iii
iv
v
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 18, 2016
a

7. ICE Cocoa (weekly chart):
• We had expected cocoa to get some temporary relief from 2450, but selloff continued for another
week. Price again closed well off lows, forming a hammer, so we’ll continue to expect some relief
in the form of a correction. That said, technical target from the head and shoulders top is around
2100.
Strong Momentum
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 18, 2016

8. DISCLAIMER
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT – Risk Management Solutions @ Olam
This presentation is an analysis of past price action and uses technical analysis tools
such as charting and mathematical calculations based on time series data of price
and volume. It is meant to be descriptive, not proscriptive, and comments about
upside and downside potential are my own.
Before taking any action, do your own analysis, see what conclusions you arrive at,
and choose to trade the instruments and volumes that are appropriate to your own
situation.