Technical analysis of agricultural markets

1. General comments:
• DXY technical target of 100 might not come before a short term correction, although s/r
levels are nearby at 98 and 97.
• Ags were strong as an asset class, but individual markets went their own ways to end the
week:
• Corn: low volatility strengthened the rounding bottom, but translated into loss of
momentum.
• Wheat: losing momentum as well, now that we need it.
• Soybeans: possible long term pattern of higher highs / higher lows.
• Coffee: uptrend refreshed as price breaks out.
• Sugar: sticking to the Elliott Wave script.
• Cocoa: head and shoulders or not, 2700 is a make or break level.
96
96 + 4
96 - 4
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Oct. 30, 2016

2. CBOT Corn (daily chart):
• Rounding bottom in corn takes it back to the 360-380 S/R zone in effect since 2014 as
shown on last week’s weekly chart. Spikes to 450 are not out of the question.
• Short term, however, look out for lost momentum last week, and a possible small correction
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Oct. 30, 2016

3. CBOT Wheat (daily chart):
• Wheat lost momentum needed to get into the resistance area and Friday’s close below the
moving averages could push it back to year lows. Would rather be cautious wheat below
450.
Resistance Area
Oct. 30, 2016
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com

4. CBOT Soybeans (weekly chart):
• Weekly soybeans chart more interesting than the daily as we may be watching market
action of long term relevance. Next resistance is 1050, then 1100, then few things stand
between soybeans and a fresh higher-high / higher-low pattern.
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Oct. 30, 2016

5. ICE Coffee (daily chart):
• Breakout above 165 refreshes the coffee rally and sets the stage for a 180 target, maybe
even 185 given coffee’s volatility. As days go by, moving averages could get into the previous
resistance area, making it even stronger as future support.
Previous resistance area
20 cts/lb range
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Oct. 30, 2016

6. ICE Sugar (weekly chart):
• Very low volume on this correction that may mark the end of the III rd wave. Expectations
purely based on Elliott Wave Theory are for an a-b-c correction down to 20.50, and then a V
impulse wave to new highs.
I
II
III
i
ii
iii
iv
v
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Oct. 30, 2016

7. ICE Cocoa:
• Still undecided about cocoa. Those following the Momentum Thesis saw the classic
pullback to the trendline on slightly lower volume. Those following the Contrarian Thesis
are seeing an oversold market reiterating its support.
Momentum Thesis : Head and
shoulders top
Contrarian Thesis : Not yet
Momentum or Contrarian?
Heavy volume doesn’t help the head and shoulders thesis
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Oct. 30, 2016

8. DISCLAIMER
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT
This presentation is an analysis of past price action and uses technical
analysis tools such as charting and mathematical calculations based on
time series data of price and volume. It is meant to be descriptive, not
proscriptive, and comments about upside and downside potential are my
own.
Before taking any action, do your own analysis, see what conclusions you
arrive at, and choose to trade the instruments and volumes that are
appropriate to your own situation.