Technical Analysis of the US Dollar and Agricultural Commodities (corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee, sugar, and cocoa).

1. General comments:
• DXY 100 is getting close and we may be there pretty soon.
• Ag commodities have been resilient to the strong dollar, meaning demand for them might
be quite strong. After two weeks of strong performance in some Ags, it is worth looking at
longer term charts:
• Corn: just below a key s/r area and volatility could be higher to the upside than the
downside.
• Wheat: has work to do, but has taken the first step.
• Soybeans: possible long term pattern of higher highs / higher lows.
• Coffee: buy the dips or a breakout.
• Sugar: textbook uptrend, especially for Elliott Wave enthusiasts.
• Cocoa: head and shoulders or not, 2700 is a make or break level.
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96 + 4
96 - 4

2. CBOT Corn (weekly chart):
• Rounding bottom in corn takes it back to the 360-380 S/R zone in effect since 2014. Once
back into this zone, spikes to 450 are not out of the question. A break above 450 would
mean possible long term bull move for corn.

3. CBOT Wheat (daily chart):
• Last few days have retraced part of the breakout from 2-month base. Price above the 20 &
50d MA’s should be a good sign for the bulls. 430-450 resistance area is strong in both daily
and weekly charts. A break above 450 would be a very bullish development.
Resistance Area

4. CBOT Soybeans (weekly chart):
• Aggressive buyers could enter this dip with a tight stop under the 50 week MA and hope for
a breakout above 1000. Upside volume has been encouraging this year, and there’s
potential for a fresh ‘higher-high/higher-low’ pattern to emerge from here.

5. ICE Coffee (daily chart):
• Coffee is still a buy; good entry points would be dips to the 50 day MA or a buy stop above
resistance the area. Low volume should be interpreted as very little resistance to the
current trend, which might mean that the uptrend is the status quo and is not yet crowded.
Resistance area
20 cts/lb range

6. ICE Sugar (weekly chart):
• There might be room for a correction in the sugar market, but notice how price held on to
short term support despite fall in open interest. The trend’s structure is very healthy with
clear wave-counting possibilities, which attract financial traders.
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7. ICE Cocoa:
• Awkward situation because we can argue that a head and shoulders pattern has been
completed and we can argue that it has not. What’s true is that the 2700 support is holding
and, if broken, 2200 becomes a technical target.
Momentum Thesis : Head and
shoulders top
Contrarian Thesis : Not yet
Momentum or Contrarian?
Heavy volume doesn’t help the head and shoulders thesis

8. DISCLAIMER
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT
This presentation is an analysis of past price action and uses technical
analysis tools such as charting and mathematical calculations based on
time series data of price and volume. It is meant to be descriptive, not
proscriptive, and comments about upside and downside potential are my
own.
Before taking any action, do your own analysis, see what conclusions you
arrive at, and choose to trade the instruments and volumes that are
appropriate to your own situation.