Technical analysis of agricultural commodities: corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee, cocoa

1. General comments:
• DXY uptrend intact after a volatile week that ended with the retest of the current resistance level
of 99. 100-101 area is a good technical target at the moment.
• Ags trended lower as negative correlation with a very strong dollar kicked in and affected grains
and softs alike:
• Corn: price pulled below 50 day moving average and previous support/resistance area is
being challenged.
• Wheat: trended lower on low volatility and is now testing key support levels.
• Soybeans: very volatile week ended unchanged but on a negative tone.
• Coffee: technical target reached and currently experiencing a strong pullback.
• Sugar: sticking to the Elliott Wave script; possibly at sub-wave a of corrective wave IV.
• Cocoa: strong bearish momentum may have found some short term support in the 2450
area.
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 11, 2016

2. CBOT Corn (daily chart):
• Rounding bottom in October took it back to a S/R zone that can be traced back to 2014, but last
week’s volatility took it back below the zone and the 50 day MA.
• Narrow support area of 340 – 346 is key right now, otherwise bearish momentum can pick up steam.
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 11, 2016
R = 354
R = 369
R = 390
Support area

3. CBOT Wheat (daily chart):
• Wheat has experienced very low volatility within the 410 – 430 zone, has been able to digest a lot
of information without moving much. However, were starting to see weakness in other grains and
volatility may return.
• Inability to hold above 410 may paint the October strength as a false breakout, and these are often
followed by strong moves in the opposite direction.
Nov. 11, 2016
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com

4. CBOT Soybeans (daily chart):
• What soybeans prices lacked in direction, they more than made up in volatility. The wild swings
respected the 990 support and 1030 resistance in the H7 contract to end the week almost
unchanged. Judging by its ability to close above the 50 day MA, soybeans looks stronger than the
other grains and a move above its 20 day MA may help corn and wheat get out of the trouble
zones they got into.
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 11, 2016

5. ICE Coffee (daily chart):
• H7 Coffee almost completes the 20ct move early Tuesday before a week marked by strong selling
activity. Open interest is also falling, as expected during a risk-off move.
• At the moment, 160 is a key level and Friday’s close points to a high probability it will be
challenged the coming week.
Previous resistance area
20 cts/lb range
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 11, 2016

6. ICE Sugar (weekly chart):
• Sugar correction continued, although at a slower pace, and 20-week MA continued to support
price. The analysis continues to be:
• We are seeing a correction that marks the end of impulse wave III. Expectations purely based
on Elliott Wave Theory are for an a-b-c correction down to 20.50, and then a V impulse wave
to new highs.
I
II
III
i
ii
iii
iv
v
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 11, 2016
a?

7. ICE Cocoa (weekly chart):
• Another week of strong momentum found some support at an old resistance zone around 2450.
We may see price catch some air at around these levels and even correct a bit to the upside to
retest old supports.
• Technical target to the downside is 2100 based on the distance between the Dec 15 top and the
level of the breakout.
Strong Momentum
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT Chart source: www.barchart.com
Nov. 11, 2016

8. DISCLAIMER
Prepared by: Jose Briz CMT
This presentation is an analysis of past price action and uses technical analysis tools
such as charting and mathematical calculations based on time series data of price
and volume. It is meant to be descriptive, not proscriptive, and comments about
upside and downside potential are my own.
Before taking any action, do your own analysis, see what conclusions you arrive at,
and choose to trade the instruments and volumes that are appropriate to your own
situation.