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PUBLIC TRANSPORTS SAFETY MEASURES COMPLIANCE AND PRICES FLUCTUATION IN COVID-19 CONTEXT - LAGOS, NIGERIA
- 1. An initiative supported by PUBLIC TRANSPORTS SAFETY MEASURES COMPLIANCE AND PRICES FLUCTUATION IN COVID-19 CONTEXT - LAGOS, NIGERIA FIRST EDITION A.S. Elijah
- 2. Evaluating the impacts of COVID-19 crisis on various communities across the 20 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Lagos, Abuja and Kano. Evaluating the impacts of COVID-19 on key value chains: Health; Food; Logistics & Distribution; Water, Power & Sanitation; Banking; Mobility; Housing; SMEs. COMPONENT 1 - IMPACT ON COMMUNITIES COMPONENT 2 - IMPACT ON VALUE CHAINS COMPONENT 3 - INTERVENTIONS ANALYSISTRACKERS - Baseline survey in underserved communities - Focusing on key components (food, logistics…) LAGOS: - 24 communities LAGOS: - 24 communities - All LGAs - Refresh and tracking post 3-6-12 months LAGOS ABUJA KANO Monitoring and analysing public and private sector reactions and interventions. Identifying optimization avenues. WHAT WE DO Tracking the effects of COVID-19 2020 crisis on Education, Employment, Food availability, Gender, Health, Housing, Logistics, Utilities, Transport and Safety in Nigeria. VERTICALSCOMMUNITIES COMPONENT 4 - KNOWLEDGE CENTER Aggregating knowledge, facts, stakeholders and timelines.
- 3. In order to flatten the COVID-19’s spreading curve, the Lagos State Ministry of Transport has implemented a set of safety guidelines in Public Transport. The safety guidelines set by the Lagos State Ministry of Transport impact the operations cost of bus companies. FOCUS 1 – SAFETY MEASURES & HEALTH COMPLIANCE FOCUS 2 – PRICES FLUCTUATION BACKGROUND & SAMPLE SIZES Public transport remains one of the main potential propagative vector of COVID-19. it constitutes also the only relevant mobility alternative and an important share of lower income workers' budget in Nigeria SURVEY SAMPLE SIZE: 592 Journeys2 SURVEY SAMPLE SIZE: 298 Journeys2 CONTEXT CONTEXT Hence, the reduction in the number of passengers may have strongly impacted public transport prices in Lagos, which already accounted for a significant share of people’s monthly budget. Here follows an extract of those measures that we took into consideration in the framework of this survey: • "All buses should be at 60% capacity and not 100% • All drivers and conductors should always wear hand gloves and nose guides while in transit” • All passengers are also required to sanitize themselves before and after each trip”1 NOTES: (1) Lagos State Government safety guidelines : Commissionner for Transport, Dr Frederic Oladeinde Twitter, (2) Collected May 7th 2020
- 4. Data was collected taking into account Lagos' peak hours and the curfew implemented by the Lagos State Government (6.00AM to 8.00PM). Data collection occurred during 3 different kind of periods: • 7.30AM to 10.00AM (Morning peak hour), • 12.00PM to 2.00PM (off-peak hour) and • 4.00PM to 6.PM (Evening peak hour) LAND – Formal Mass Transit – Cat. 1 BLUE BRT BIG MOLUE BUS METHODOLOGY On the 7th of May 2020 Mitsio Motu conducted on-field surveys related to the safety measures enacted by the Lagos State Ministry of Transport and the tickets fare fluctuation. WHERE AND WHEN MEANS OF TRANSPORT - CATEGORIZATION LAND – Informal Mass Transit – Cat. 2 LAND – Mid-Capacity 11 – Cat. 3 LAND – Mid-Capacity 2 – Cat. 4 LAND – Lower capacity 1 – Cat. 5 LAND – Lower capacity 22 – Cat. 6 SEA – Formal Mass transit3 – Cat. 7 SEA – Informal Mid-Capacity4 – Cat. 8 RED BRT COASTER LT SMALL MOLUE DANFO 14 18MINI BUS LT BIKEKEKEMINI BUS MAZDA FERRY SEA COACH LARGE WOODEN BOAT … and across 30 bus stops, 2 jetties stops in 12 LGAs of Lagos State. Map 1 : Bus and Jetties stops covered, Mitsio Motu, 2020 NOTES: Additional means of transport (1) Land 3: Nissan White Civilian (2) Land 6: Car Sienna Car – Normal (3) Sea 1: Ferry Texas (4) Sea2: Big Fiber, Big Pako, Small Pako
- 5. • State’s and/or Private Sector intervention in subsidies to cover part of transport fees of Lagosians, in particular workers of fundamental value chains that live far from key public facilities, industrial or commercial zones. • Minimum control or at least transparency on prices and enactment of a general ticketing system among all modes of transport to reduce the total cost per trip. • If possible, Private Companies reinforcing/enabling remote work beyond the partial lock down period with adequate organizational measures and IT infrastructure • Commuting in formal mode of transport (Land and Sea) commuting in formal buses networks does not entails more compliance in safety guidelines nor price stagnation (Blue BRT fares increased between 100% to 150%1). • In some cases, it may not be economically feasible for minimum wage workers to commute every day. Ex: from Ajah to Mushin (40% income) or Agege to Ilupeju (90% income). OBSERVATIONS: POTENTIAL INTERVENTION AREAS: • High level of compliance regarding the wearing of face mask, but can be increased. • Commuting in formal buses networks does not preclude more compliance to the safety guidelines. 24% of Blue BRT observed exceeded the total number of passengers in contrast to only 4% of Red BRT. • Low level of compliance regarding social distancing while queuing (32%). • Very high general level of safety compliance in the case formal sea transport stakeholders (Sea Coach and Texas Ferry). HEALTH AWARNESS AND PRACTICES PRICE FLUCTUATION KEY RESULTS OBSERVATIONS: POTENTIAL INTERVENTION AREAS: • Budgeting additional distributions of facemasks for 100% drivers. • Additional enforcement of facemask wearing for drivers commuters, and of non excessed capacity, in particular in Blue BRT buses networks and based on a clear categorization of transport means in other cases. • Monitor disinfection frequency in all means of transport. • Investigating if the lack of social distancing is due to non compliance from commuters or inadequate infrastructure (In the latter case, planning the reinforcement of bus and jetty stops infrastructure). NOTES: (1) Managing Director Primero Transport Service limited, subsequently to our study
- 6. PART I: SAFETY MEASURES A.S. Elijah
- 7. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Do commuters observe social distancing while queuing ? Are commuters wearing a facemask while entering/leaving the vehicle ? How many people were inside the mean of transport ? Is the driver wearing a face mask ? Observations • High general level of compliance regarding drivers wearing face masks (91 %, 80% for BRT Blue). • In total, in 24% case, at least commuters entered without a face mask, except in the case of Formal sea transport. Nonetheless, Formal Land Mass Transit buses (BLUE BRT) are the less compliant (34%) • In general more passengers were carried than required, Land Mid and Lower Capacity 2 are the less compliant in this regard (66% compliance in average) • In most cases (except Formal Sea Mass Transit categories), commuters do not observe social distancing while queuing 73%, probably due to inadequate Bus Stops and Jetty Stop infrastructure. Caption Yes There is a queue but limited social distance Not crowdy No Drivers and commuters’ compliance regarding the wearing of face mask is high (but lower in the case of BLUE BRT Buses). Social distancing during queuing remains a general concern. Formal Sea Mass Transit category is the generally the most compliant.
- 8. IS THE DRIVER WEARING A FACE MASK ? Relatively high level of compliance in most transport categories Brt- Blue Brt- Red Bus Nissan White Civilian Bus Coaster Bus LT Mini Bus Danfo 18 Mini Bus Danfo 14 Mini Bus Mazda Car Sienna Bus Big Molue Ferry Texas Ferry Sea Coach Boat Big Pako Boat Wooden Large Boat Small Fiber Car- Normal Keke Bike 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% Sub-categories Categories 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Observations • Highest compliance: Nissan Civilian Bus, LT Bus, Sienna Car, Bike, Texas Ferry, Sea Coach Ferry, Big Pako Boat and Large Wooden Boats • Lowest compliance: Big Molue Bus and Small Fiber Boat • Formal vs Informal: Formal Land Mass transit (Cat. 1) are less compliant than Informal Land Mass (Cat. 2) in average (except Molue), Mid and Lower (Cat. 3-4-5-6) modes of transport • Size: Same level of compliance between Mid and Lower capacities (Cat. 3-4-5-6) • Sea vs Land: Better level of compliance with Sea modes of transport in contrast to Land Yes NoCaption
- 9. ARE COMMUTERS WEARING A FACE MASK WHILE ENTERING/LEAVING THE VEHICLE ? Heterogeneous level of compliance across all transport categories 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Observations • Highest compliance: Nissan Civilian Bus, Sienna Car, Bike, Texas Ferry, Sea Coach Ferry and Wooden Large Boat • Lowest compliance: Big Molue Bus Brt- Blue Brt- Red Bus Nissan White Civilian Bus Coaster Bus LT Mini Bus Danfo 18 Mini Bus Danfo 14 Mini Bus Mazda Car Sienna Bus Big Molue Ferry Texas Ferry Sea Coach Boat Big Pako Boat Wooden Large Boat Small Fiber Car- Normal Keke Bike Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal Sub-categories Categories Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal Yes NoCaption • Formal vs Informal: Formal Land Mass transit (Cat. 1) are less compliant than Informal Land Mass (Cat. 2) in average (except Molue), Mid and Lower (Cat. 3-4-5-6) modes of transport • Size: Same level of compliance between Mid and Lower capacities (Cat. 3-4-5-6) • Sea vs Land: Better level of compliance with Sea modes of transport in contrast to Land 1
- 10. 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE INSIDE THE MEAN OF TRANSPORT ? Low level of compliance in most mid and lower capacity categories Sub-categories Categories Yes NoCaption 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • Highest compliance: Big Molue Bus, Red BRT and Sea Coach Ferry • Lowest compliance: Coaster Bus and Bike • Formal vs Informal: Informal Land Mass transit (Cat. 1) are less compliant than Land Mass transit (Cat. 2), but more compliant than Mid and Lower capacities (Cat. 3-4-5-6) • Size: Higher level of compliance for higher capacity Land categories (Cat. 1-2) than Mid and Lower capacities (Cat. 3-4-5-6) • Sea vs Land: Similar compliance levels in the case of Sea and Land categories Observations Brt- Blue Brt- Red Bus Nissan White Civilian Bus Coaster Bus LT Mini Bus Danfo 18 Mini Bus Danfo 14 Mini Bus Mazda Car Sienna Bus Big Molue Ferry Texas Ferry Sea Coach Boat Big Pako Boat Wooden Large Boat Small Fiber Car- Normal Keke Bike Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal 1
- 11. • Highest compliance: Nissan Civilian Bus, Coaster Bus, Texas Ferry, Sea Coach Ferry • Lowest compliance: LT Bus, Bike, Danfo 18 Mini bus and Big Pako Boat 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% 0% 20% 60% 40% 80% 100% ARE COMMUTERS OBSERVING SOCIAL DISTANCING WHILE QUEUING ? Very low general level of compliance except in the case of formal sea transport Sub-categories Categories Observations Caption • Formal vs Informal: Both informal and Formal Land modes of transport have low level of compliance • Size: Relatively same level of compliance between Land Mid and Lower (Cat. 3-4-5-6) modes of transport • Sea vs Land: Sea modes of transport are more compliant than Land 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Brt- Blue Brt- Red Bus Nissan White Civilian Bus Coaster Bus LT Mini Bus Danfo 18 Mini Bus Danfo 14 Mini Bus Mazda Car Sienna Bus Big Molue Ferry Texas Ferry Sea Coach Boat Big Pako Boat Wooden Large Boat Small Fiber Car- Normal Keke Bike Sea Mass Transit Formal Sea Mid Capacity Informal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Yes There is a queue but limited social distance Not crowdy Land Lower Capacity 1 Land Lower Capacity 2 Land Mid Capacity 1 Land Mid Capacity 2 Land Mass Transit Formal Land Mass Transit Informal No 1
- 12. PART II: PRICES FLUCTUATION A.S. Elijah
- 13. HOW PRICES HAVE FLUCTUATED SINCE COVID-19 AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF HEALTH SAFETY GUIDELINES These tickets fare increase directly impact negatively low income commuters especially in a context where salaries may decrease. Furthering the pre existing economic and social inequalities within low income households. Start End Pen Cinema Bus stop Danfo 14/18BRT – Red Oshodi Bus stopLocations Price (before COV-19) Price (after COV-19) Description : One commuter walks from his home to Pen Cinema Bus stop, takes a BRT- Red to go to Oshodi bus stop, then takes a bike to go to Ilupeju and finally walks to his final destination. Total distance: 38Km. Journey 2Journey 1 Description : One commuter walks from his home Ajah Bus stop, takes a Danfo 14 seaters to go to CMS stop, then takes a Danfo- 18 seaters to Mushin and finally walks to his final destination. Total distance: 42 km. Start End Ajah Bus stop CMS Bus stopLocations Price (before COV-19) Price (after COV-19) Ilupeju Mushin BikeCaption 200 NGN 500 NGN300 NGN 250 NGN 675 NGN425 NGN 50 NGN 150 NGN100 NGN 100 NGN 300 NGN200 NGN Share in monthly budget1 Pre COVID-19 Post COVID-1967% 90% Share in monthly budget1 Pre COVID-19 Post COVID-1920% 40% NOTES: (1) supposing 1 trip every work day (20 days/month) & a 30K NGN salary, Collected May 7th 2020
- 14. PRICE FLUCTUATION TABLE – EXTRACT Mean of transport JourneyCategory Distance (km) Current Avg. price Previous Avg. Price Evolution (%)2 Danfo 18 Mini bus Land 4 Mid capacity 2 Ojota to Mile 12 4 100 NGN 100 NGN +0% Mazda Mini bus Land 5 Lower capacity 1 Ojuelegba to Doyin 7 183 NGN 100 NGN +83% Danfo 14 Mini bus Land 4 Mid capacity 2 Ajah Bus stop to CMS 26 425 NGN 200 NGN +113% Sienna Car Land 6 Lower capacity 2 Yaba to Jakande 18 500 NGN 400 NGN +25% Normal Car Land 6 Lower capacity 2 Yaba to Shita 3 200 NGN 100 NGN +100% Keke Land 6 Lower capacity 2 Sabo Ojodu to Ajuwo 16 150 NGN 100 NGN +50% Texas Ferry Sea 1 Formal Mass Transit 1 CMS jetty to Apapa jetty 13 200 NGN 150 NGN +33% Sea Coach Ferry Sea 1 Formal Mass Transit 1 CMS jetty to Apapa jetty 13 200 NGN 150 NGN +33% Sea 2 Informa Mid capacityBig Pako Boat CMS jetty to Ogogoro com 200 NGN 150 NGN +33% LT Mini Bus Land 4 Mid capacity 2 Iyana Ipaja to Oshodi 16 300 NGN 200 NGN +33% Coaster Bus Land 3 Mid capacity 1 Ijora 7up Apapa to Mile 12 27 300 NGN 300 NGN +0% Nissan Civilian Bus Land 3 Mid capacity 1 CMS to Ajah 26 300 NGN 300 NGN +0% Red BRT Land 1 Inormal Mass Transit Obalende to Ikorodu 37 400 NGN 300 NGN +33% Blue BRT Land 1 Formal Mass transit Ketu to Agric 26 200 NGN 150 NGN +33% Small Fiber Boat Sea 2 Informa Mid capacity CMS jetty to Tarkwa Bay 500 NGN 300 NGN + 67% (1) Collected May 7th 2020 (2) Rounded to the closest unit A total number of 298 price points have been collected in Lagos1 3 7 NOTES:
- 15. An initiative supported by You are an expert, a practitioner, a community member interested in joining us: www.covidobs.com Info@covidobs.com You are a company, NGO or public body interested in partnering with us: info@mitsiomotu.com WHO WE ARE CONTACT US We are a group of experts, practitioners and community members who aim at helping both public institutions and private actors decide on the most relevant ways to make impactful interventions in areas needed the most by various communities in Nigeria during the current and upcoming COVID-19 crisis, through the collection and analysis of field and alternative data. Mitsio Motu Ltd. is a research & advisory firm which supports government, institutions, NGOs and private companies design, developing, implementing and optimizing projects that have an impact on underserved communities About us