1. S&P 500
Intermediate Term
PredictionUpdated 12/09/2016
“祸兮,福之所倚;福兮,祸之所伏” -春秋·老聃《老子》第五十八章 (约公元前571
年-公元前471年).
Market Timing: “What underlies the Luck comes with Misfortune; What underlies the
Misfortune comes with Luck.”
Return Forecastability: “What we expected to be 0 is 1; what we expected to be 1 is 0.” –
John Cochrane <<Discount Rates, NBER2011>>