Latest Projection Of Cases By State For Next 15 Day. Average growth abut 30 % per day (expect to be lower). Uses average growth per day from 3-21 to 3-28 to project ahead 14 days.

1. Orr’s Model V
Coronavirus Cases Projection
J.K. Orr
March 29, 2020

2. Summary
• This is a revised model based on actual increases in test cases over
the past 7 days.
• Charts 8 – 10 give results for my projections a week ago
• Actual cases on 03-21-2020
• Actual cases on 03-28-2020
• Orr’ Model III projection for 03-28-2020
• Average actual daily growth per day in Coronavirus cases for actual cases 03-
21-2020 to 03-28-2020 (this value is used as a constant for the Model V
projection for the next 14 days on Charts 3 – 7)
• Average Model III daily growth per day in Coronavirus cases for actual cases
03-21-2020 to 03-28-2020 (some too low, some too high, a few close)

3. Orr’s Model V Projection For Next 14 Days
Date Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware
District of
Columbia
Florida Georgia
3/28/2020 696 102 773 409 4,643 2,061 1,524 214 342 4,038 2,446
3/29/2020 891 136 1,031 489 5,637 2,545 2,007 268 409 5,234 3,200
3/30/2020 1,142 180 1,374 584 6,845 3,142 2,643 335 489 6,784 4,186
3/31/2020 1,462 240 1,833 698 8,311 3,879 3,481 419 585 8,794 5,477
4/1/2020 1,873 319 2,444 833 10,091 4,790 4,584 525 699 11,398 7,165
4/2/2020 2,398 424 3,259 996 12,252 5,914 6,038 657 836 14,774 9,374
4/3/2020 3,072 563 4,346 1,190 14,877 7,301 7,951 822 1,000 19,150 12,263
4/4/2020 3,934 749 5,795 1,421 18,063 9,015 10,472 1,029 1,196 24,821 16,044
4/5/2020 5,038 996 7,727 1,698 21,932 11,131 13,791 1,288 1,430 32,173 20,989
4/6/2020 6,453 1,324 10,304 2,029 26,629 13,743 18,162 1,612 1,710 41,702 27,459
4/7/2020 8,264 1,761 13,740 2,424 32,332 16,968 23,919 2,017 2,045 54,053 35,924
4/8/2020 10,584 2,341 18,322 2,896 39,258 20,950 31,501 2,525 2,446 70,062 46,998
4/9/2020 13,556 3,112 24,431 3,460 47,666 25,866 41,486 3,160 2,925 90,813 61,485
4/10/2020 17,361 4,138 32,578 4,134 57,875 31,937 54,635 3,955 3,498 117,710 80,438

4. Orr’s Model V Projection For Next 14 Days
Date Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine
3/28/2020 51 151 261 3,491 1,232 298 261 394 3,316 211
3/29/2020 61 178 338 4,353 1,704 369 327 524 4,253 246
3/30/2020 72 210 437 5,428 2,356 456 409 697 5,454 287
3/31/2020 86 248 566 6,769 3,259 564 511 927 6,994 334
4/1/2020 103 292 732 8,441 4,507 697 640 1,232 8,970 390
4/2/2020 123 345 948 10,525 6,233 863 800 1,639 11,503 454
4/3/2020 146 406 1,227 13,125 8,621 1,067 1,001 2,179 14,752 529
4/4/2020 174 479 1,588 16,366 11,923 1,320 1,253 2,898 18,919 617
4/5/2020 207 565 2,055 20,409 16,489 1,632 1,567 3,854 24,262 719
4/6/2020 247 666 2,660 25,449 22,804 2,019 1,961 5,125 31,115 839
4/7/2020 295 786 3,443 31,734 31,538 2,497 2,453 6,815 39,903 978
4/8/2020 351 927 4,456 39,572 43,617 3,088 3,069 9,063 51,174 1,140
4/9/2020 418 1,093 5,768 49,345 60,322 3,820 3,840 12,053 65,628 1,329
4/10/2020 499 1,289 7,465 61,532 83,426 4,725 4,804 16,028 84,165 1,549

5. Orr’s Model V Projection For Next 14 Days
Date Maryland Massachusetts Michagan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Neveda
3/28/2020 892 4,267 4,650 441 683 838 147 108 621
3/29/2020 1,114 5,764 5,997 522 858 1,188 187 121 759
3/30/2020 1,392 7,786 7,734 617 1,078 1,685 239 137 927
3/31/2020 1,739 10,517 9,974 730 1,354 2,390 305 154 1,133
4/1/2020 2,172 14,206 12,863 864 1,700 3,390 389 173 1,384
4/2/2020 2,714 19,190 16,588 1,022 2,135 4,807 496 194 1,690
4/3/2020 3,390 25,922 21,393 1,209 2,682 6,817 633 218 2,065
4/4/2020 4,235 35,015 27,589 1,430 3,369 9,668 807 245 2,523
4/5/2020 5,290 47,299 35,580 1,692 4,232 13,710 1,029 276 3,083
4/6/2020 6,609 63,891 45,886 2,002 5,315 19,443 1,313 310 3,767
4/7/2020 8,256 86,304 59,176 2,368 6,676 27,573 1,674 349 4,602
4/8/2020 10,313 116,579 76,316 2,801 8,386 39,103 2,135 392 5,622
4/9/2020 12,884 157,475 98,421 3,314 10,534 55,455 2,724 441 6,869
4/10/2020 16,095 212,717 126,928 3,921 13,231 78,644 3,474 496 8,392

6. Orr’s Model V Projection For Next 14 Days
Date
New
Hampshire
New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania
3/28/2020 214 11,124 208 52,318 935 94 1,406 377 478 2,751
3/29/2020 254 15,092 250 66,030 1,181 112 1,804 497 567 3,663
3/30/2020 301 20,477 301 83,335 1,492 133 2,315 654 673 4,877
3/31/2020 358 27,781 362 105,176 1,885 158 2,971 862 799 6,493
4/1/2020 424 37,692 436 132,742 2,381 188 3,812 1,136 948 8,645
4/2/2020 503 51,139 525 167,532 3,008 224 4,891 1,497 1,126 11,510
4/3/2020 597 69,383 632 211,439 3,800 267 6,276 1,972 1,336 15,325
4/4/2020 709 94,134 760 266,855 4,801 317 8,054 2,599 1,585 20,404
4/5/2020 841 127,716 915 336,794 6,065 377 10,334 3,424 1,882 27,166
4/6/2020 998 173,278 1,101 425,063 7,662 449 13,261 4,511 2,233 36,169
4/7/2020 1,184 235,095 1,325 536,466 9,679 534 17,016 5,944 2,650 48,157
4/8/2020 1,405 318,963 1,594 677,066 12,228 635 21,835 7,831 3,145 64,117
4/9/2020 1,668 432,752 1,918 854,516 15,447 756 28,018 10,318 3,733 85,367
4/10/2020 1,979 587,134 2,308 1,078,473 19,514 899 35,952 13,594 4,430 113,660

7. Orr’s Model V Projection For Next 14 Days
41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
Date Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Total US
3/28/2020 239 660 68 1,373 2,062 602 211 739 4,310 112 889 84 120,815
3/29/2020 287 800 85 1,656 2,713 746 260 928 4,894 156 1,049 101 153,833
3/30/2020 345 969 107 1,997 3,568 924 321 1,165 5,557 217 1,238 122 196,195
3/31/2020 415 1,174 135 2,408 4,694 1,144 396 1,462 6,309 303 1,462 146 250,625
4/1/2020 499 1,422 169 2,904 6,175 1,417 489 1,836 7,164 422 1,725 176 320,669
4/2/2020 600 1,723 212 3,503 8,123 1,755 603 2,305 8,134 589 2,036 212 410,940
4/3/2020 721 2,088 266 4,224 10,686 2,174 744 2,894 9,236 820 2,403 255 527,456
4/4/2020 866 2,530 334 5,094 14,057 2,693 918 3,633 10,487 1,143 2,836 307 678,072
4/5/2020 1,041 3,065 419 6,143 18,492 3,336 1,132 4,561 11,907 1,593 3,348 370 873,065
4/6/2020 1,251 3,713 526 7,409 24,325 4,132 1,397 5,726 13,520 2,220 3,951 445 1,125,889
4/7/2020 1,504 4,499 661 8,935 32,000 5,118 1,723 7,189 15,351 3,093 4,663 536 1,454,191
4/8/2020 1,808 5,451 829 10,775 42,095 6,340 2,126 9,025 17,430 4,311 5,504 645 1,881,149
4/9/2020 2,173 6,604 1,041 12,995 55,376 7,853 2,623 11,331 19,791 6,007 6,496 776 2,437,251
4/10/2020 2,612 8,002 1,307 15,672 72,846 9,727 3,236 14,225 22,472 8,371 7,667 934 3,162,652

8. Compare Model III to Actual 3/21 to 3/28
State Actual Cases To
4/21/2020
Actual Cases To
4/28/2020
Projection Of Cases To
4/28/2020 Based on
4/21/2020 Actuals
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Alabama 124 696 1,097 28.1% 36.7%
Alaska 14 102 58 33.0% 22.6%
Arizona 104 773 920 33.3% 36.7%
Arkansas 118 409 1,044 19.5% 36.7%
California 1,200 4,643 3,494 21.4% 16.7%
Colorado 476 2,061 1,860 23.5% 21.6%
Connecticut 223 1,524 1,768 31.7% 34.6%
Delaware 45 214 357 25.2% 34.6%
District of Columbia 98 342 777 19.6% 34.6%
Florida 658 4,038 5,218 29.6% 34.6%
Georgia 374 2,446 4,020 30.8% 40.4%
Guam 15 51 58 19.2% 21.4%
Hawaii 48 151 425 17.9% 36.7%
Idaho 43 261 274 29.4% 30.3%
Illinois 753 3,491 12,891 24.7% 50.0%
Indiana 128 1,232 1,133 38.3% 36.7%
Iowa 68 298 602 23.7% 36.7%

9. Compare Model III to Actual 3/21 to 3/28
State Actual Cases To
4/21/2020
Actual Cases To
4/28/2020
Projection Of Cases To
4/28/2020 Based on
4/21/2020 Actuals
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Kansas 55 261 487 25.1% 36.7%
Kentucky 54 394 157 33.0% 16.7%
Louisiana 585 3,316 5,177 28.2% 36.7%
Maine 73 211 163 16.6% 12.3%
Maryland 190 892 1,682 24.9% 36.7%
Massachusetts 525 4,267 1,529 35.1% 16.7%
Michagan 787 4,650 3,378 29.0% 23.3%
Minnesota 137 441 399 18.3% 16.7%
Mississippi 140 683 2,397 25.6% 50.0%
Missouri 73 838 646 41.8% 36.7%
Montana 27 147 79 27.5% 16.7%
Nebraska 48 108 111 12.4% 12.8%
Neveda 154 621 1,363 22.2% 36.7%
New Hampshire 65 214 160 18.7% 14.0%
New Jersey 1,327 11,124 11,744 35.7% 36.7%
New Mexico 57 208 166 20.3% 16.7%
New York 10,366 52,318 114,619 26.2% 41.0%
North Carolina 184 935 1,628 26.3% 36.7%

10. Compare Model III to Actual 3/21 to 3/28
State Actual Cases To
4/21/2020
Actual Cases To
4/28/2020
Projection Of Cases To
4/28/2020 Based on
4/21/2020 Actuals
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
North Dakota 28 94 248 19.0% 36.7%
Ohio 247 1,406 2,186 28.3% 36.7%
Oklahoma 55 377 487 31.8% 36.7%
Oregon 145 478 399 18.7% 15.8%
Pennsylvania 374 2,751 3,310 33.1% 36.7%
Rhode Island 66 239 584 20.2% 36.7%
South Carolina 173 660 1,531 21.2% 36.7%
South Dakota 14 68 41 25.5% 16.7%
Tennessee 371 1,373 3,283 20.6% 36.7%
Texas 304 2,062 2,690 31.5% 36.7%
Utah 136 602 396 23.9% 16.7%
Vermont 49 211 84 23.4% 8.4%
Virginia 152 739 443 25.5% 16.7%
Washington 1,793 4,310 5,221 13.5% 16.7%
West Virginia 11 112 97 39.4% 36.7%
Wisconsin 281 889 2,487 18.0% 36.7%
Wyoming 23 84 67 20.4% 16.7%