This was an attempt to see if I could measure the effect of social distancing. While the method is immature, it definitely shows that movement into regions by infectious persons is defeating "social distancing" in most areas. Only New York and Washington show progress. Texas "social distancing" appears overwhelmed by movement of new infectious persons into Texas

1. Measuring The Effect of Social
Distancing
Proposed Metric For Transmission Rate
James K. Orr
April 5, 2020

2. Model When Person Infectious
• Simple model of large population
• 40 % infectious 5 days before symptoms, infectious for a total of 20 days
• 40 % infectious 10 days before symptoms, infectious for a total of 25 days
• 20 % infectious 15 days before symptoms, infectious for a total of 30 days
• Model assume travel of infectious person into the region
• Obviously extremely flawed for the United States
• Combines the number of known cases by date to estimate the
number of infectious cases in the region
• Then computes a “transmission rate” as the ration of new cases
divided the estimated infectious people in the region

3. Infection Persons For One Confirmed Cases
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
1
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ProbabilyOfInfectionPersonover30dayperiodfromOneConfirmedCoronavirusCase

4. Discussion of Data In Tables
• Reported US Cases -- For each region, this is the number of Coronavirus Cases
being reported each day
• For United States, New York State, Washington State, Louisiana and Texas
• These seem to be a represented set of regions, plus seem to have influence on Texas cases
• Date -- Date of actual cases as of end of day
• Estimated Infectious Cases – This combines actual reported cases to 4/4/2020,
estimated projection of cases to 4/19/2020 combined with the model on Chart 3
for “Infection Persons For One Confirmed Cases”
• Transmission Factor For Single Day – New (delta from 14 days in future to 15 days
in future) Actual Cases divided by Estimated Infectious Cases at Today (hypothesis
that today’s infectious cases relate to observed actual cases 15 days in the future)
• Transmission Factor Over Prior Days – This attempts to produce a number that
shows how many total Actual Cases will result for a single infectious case.
• Expected value near 3 for closed region (no infectious cases travel into region)

5. Model Of Infections And Transmission Rate
Total United States
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
2/18/2020 22
2/19/2020 57 292.8% 2.93
2/20/2020 108 132.4% 2.65
2/21/2020 178 92.8% 2.78
2/22/2020 322 80.8% 3.23
2/23/2020 521 45.7% 2.28
2/24/2020 808 55.5% 3.33
2/25/2020 1,189 33.5% 2.35
2/26/2020 1,707 33.2% 2.66
2/27/2020 2,441 32.9% 2.96
2/28/2020 3,450 27.3% 2.73
2/29/2020 4,731 19.4% 2.14
3/1/2020 6,385 18.5% 2.22
3/2/2020 8,579 20.1% 2.61
3/3/2020 11,582 28.2% 3.95
111 3/4/2020 15,757 34.1% 5.11
176 3/5/2020 21,475 34.4% 5.50
252 3/6/2020 29,101 28.8% 4.90
352 3/7/2020 39,722 31.0% 5.58
496 3/8/2020 54,210 25.5% 4.84
643 3/9/2020 73,155 18.6% 3.73
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
932 3/10/2020 97,307 16.3% 3.42
1,203 3/11/2020 128,981 17.5% 3.85
1,598 3/12/2020 169,485 14.8% 3.40
2,160 3/13/2020 219,654 11.9% 2.86
2,827 3/14/2020 280,876 9.4% 2.34
3,497 3/15/2020 355,470 7.3% 1.89
4,372 3/16/2020 446,116 6.8% 1.83
5,656 3/17/2020 554,206 5.9% 1.67
8,074 3/18/2020 680,353 5.2% 1.51
12,018 3/19/2020 825,940 4.9% 1.46
17,438 3/20/2020 994,738 4.1% 1.24
23,623 3/21/2020 1,192,886
32,638 3/22/2020 1,419,739
42,752 3/23/2020 1,677,692
52,854 3/24/2020 1,967,812
64,767 3/25/2020 2,300,670
81,783 3/26/2020 2,673,840
100,869 3/27/2020 3,089,978
121,099 3/28/2020 3,552,373
141,701 3/29/2020 4,063,148
162,161 3/30/2020 4,632,613
186,214 3/31/2020 5,258,087
212,747 4/1/2020
241,626 4/2/2020
274,635 4/3/2020
308,876 4/4/2020

6. Model Of Infections And Transmission Rate
New York State
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
2/18/2020 2
2/19/2020 7 500.0% 5.00
2/20/2020 15 333.3% 6.67
2/21/2020 33 292.2% 8.77
2/22/2020 59 51.2% 2.05
2/23/2020 96 61.2% 3.06
2/24/2020 148 32.3% 1.94
2/25/2020 227 29.0% 2.03
2/26/2020 335 49.3% 3.95
2/27/2020 480 27.8% 2.50
2/28/2020 687 46.0% 4.60
2/29/2020 937 12.7% 1.39
3/1/2020 1,293 23.6% 2.83
3/2/2020 1,781 33.6% 4.36
3/3/2020 2,573 56.6% 7.92
11 3/4/2020 3,766 68.8% 10.32
22 3/5/2020 5,653 78.1% 12.49
44 3/6/2020 8,411 57.7% 9.82
89 3/7/2020 12,570 57.1% 10.28
106 3/8/2020 18,666 45.4% 8.63
142 3/9/2020 26,932 25.7% 5.13
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
173 3/10/2020 37,621 19.1% 4.01
216 3/11/2020 51,693 17.1% 3.77
328 3/12/2020 69,927 14.3% 3.28
421 3/13/2020 92,322 11.0% 2.64
642 3/14/2020 119,390 7.8% 1.95
729 3/15/2020 151,739 5.8% 1.52
950 3/16/2020 190,817 6.1% 1.65
1,384 3/17/2020 236,837 4.2% 1.16
2,392 3/18/2020 289,385 3.7% 1.06
4,162 3/19/2020 349,204 4.2% 1.26
7,102 3/20/2020 417,920 3.7% 1.12
10,366 3/21/2020 495,530
15,168 3/22/2020 582,603
20,875 3/23/2020 680,539
25,666 3/24/2020 789,760
30,811 3/25/2020 911,708
37,258 3/26/2020 1,046,321
44,636 3/27/2020 1,194,301
52,318 3/28/2020 1,357,510
59,513 3/29/2020 1,536,604
66,497 3/30/2020 1,732,465
75,785 3/31/2020 1,945,665
83,712 4/1/2020
92,381 4/2/2020
104,537 4/3/2020
117,605 4/4/2020

7. Model Of Infections And Transmission Rate
Washington State
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
2/18/2020 6
2/19/2020 13 196.4% 1.96
2/20/2020 27 231.3% 4.63
2/21/2020 43 36.5% 1.09
2/22/2020 75 50.7% 2.03
2/23/2020 118 45.3% 2.27
2/24/2020 180 31.4% 1.88
2/25/2020 256 23.8% 1.67
2/26/2020 361 42.6% 3.41
2/27/2020 511 26.6% 2.39
2/28/2020 719 37.6% 3.76
2/29/2020 979 16.1% 1.78
3/1/2020 1,331 22.6% 2.71
3/2/2020 1,742 4.7% 0.61
3/3/2020 2,279 10.0% 1.41
28 3/4/2020 2,915 8.3% 1.24
39 3/5/2020 3,687 5.1% 0.81
70 3/6/2020 4,580 7.3% 1.24
80 3/7/2020 5,622 4.4% 0.80
102 3/8/2020 6,862 4.0% 0.76
136 3/9/2020 8,257 3.6% 0.72
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
173 3/10/2020 9,870 1.3% 0.28
216 3/11/2020 11,715 6.4% 1.40
325 3/12/2020 13,818 4.2% 0.97
421 3/13/2020 16,218 4.4% 1.06
613 3/14/2020 18,839 3.6% 0.90
729 3/15/2020 21,851 0.9% 0.23
950 3/16/2020 25,233 2.1% 0.56
1,012 3/17/2020 29,042 1.9% 0.52
1,187 3/18/2020 33,305 2.1% 0.60
1,376 3/19/2020 37,786 2.0% 0.61
1,524 3/20/2020 42,830 1.9% 0.56
1,793 3/21/2020 48,376
1,996 3/22/2020 54,550
2,221 3/23/2020 61,366
2,469 3/24/2020 68,662
2,580 3/25/2020 76,565
3,207 3/26/2020 85,092
3,700 3/27/2020 94,242
4,310 3/28/2020 104,071
4,896 3/29/2020 114,506
5,062 3/30/2020 125,645
5,515 3/31/2020 137,400
5,984 4/1/2020
6,585 4/2/2020
7,262 4/3/2020
7,972 4/4/2020

8. Model Of Infections And Transmission Rate
Louisiana
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
2/18/2020 0
2/19/2020 0
2/20/2020 0
2/21/2020 0
2/22/2020 0
2/23/2020 0
2/24/2020 1 1000.0% 60.00
2/25/2020 3 1250.0% 87.50
2/26/2020 7 176.5% 14.12
2/27/2020 15 236.1% 21.25
2/28/2020 31 277.0% 27.70
2/29/2020 57 82.8% 9.11
3/1/2020 92 57.7% 6.92
3/2/2020 146 65.2% 8.48
3/3/2020 233 57.7% 8.08
0 3/4/2020 354 48.1% 7.22
0 3/5/2020 509 24.9% 3.98
0 3/6/2020 712 20.6% 3.51
0 3/7/2020 1,006 35.4% 6.37
0 3/8/2020 1,428 33.3% 6.33
1 3/9/2020 1,939 15.1% 3.03
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
3 3/10/2020 2,586 21.0% 4.41
13 3/11/2020 3,460 19.7% 4.34
19 3/12/2020 4,590 12.7% 2.93
36 3/13/2020 5,966 12.4% 2.98
77 3/14/2020 7,584 3.8% 0.94
103 3/15/2020 9,545 6.4% 1.66
136 3/16/2020 12,025 12.7% 3.43
196 3/17/2020 15,105 9.9% 2.76
280 3/18/2020 18,906 18.0% 5.23
392 3/19/2020 23,423 9.5% 2.84
480 3/20/2020 29,014 8.2% 2.47
585 3/21/2020 35,665
837 3/22/2020 44,061
1,172 3/23/2020 53,725
1,388 3/24/2020 64,854
1,795 3/25/2020 77,817
2,305 3/26/2020 92,668
2,746 3/27/2020 110,134
3,316 3/28/2020 129,937
3,540 3/29/2020 152,211
4,025 3/30/2020 177,117
5,237 3/31/2020 204,782
6,424 4/1/2020
9,150 4/2/2020
10,943 4/3/2020
12,872 4/4/2020

9. Model Of Infections And Transmission Rate
Texas
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
2/18/2020 0
2/19/2020 0
2/20/2020 1
2/21/2020 3
2/22/2020 4
2/23/2020 7
2/24/2020 12 13.9% 0.83
2/25/2020 18 33.9% 2.37
2/26/2020 26 21.7% 1.74
2/27/2020 35 7.8% 0.70
2/28/2020 49 45.5% 4.55
2/29/2020 69 35.0% 3.85
3/1/2020 92 1.5% 0.17
3/2/2020 117 7.6% 0.99
3/3/2020 154 16.3% 2.28
0 3/4/2020 210 39.0% 5.85
1 3/5/2020 278 24.3% 3.89
5 3/6/2020 373 39.5% 6.72
8 3/7/2020 482 8.0% 1.45
8 3/8/2020 626 3.7% 0.71
12 3/9/2020 808 9.3% 1.85
Reported U.S.
Cases Total
Date
Estimated
Infectious
Cases
Transmission
Factor
-- Single Day
Transmission
Factdor Over
Prior Days
Days
13 3/10/2020 1,147 69.8% 14.67
17 3/11/2020 1,585 36.8% 8.10
21 3/12/2020 2,105 21.1% 4.86
23 3/13/2020 2,739 15.7% 3.77
39 3/14/2020 3,719 18.3% 4.56
56 3/15/2020 4,974 8.5% 2.20
57 3/16/2020 6,453 7.8% 2.11
64 3/17/2020 8,218 11.3% 3.17
83 3/18/2020 10,341 8.2% 2.37
143 3/19/2020 12,973 7.6% 2.29
194 3/20/2020 16,096 6.4% 1.93
304 3/21/2020 19,813
334 3/22/2020 24,115
352 3/23/2020 29,134
410 3/24/2020 34,822
974 3/25/2020 41,237
1,396 3/26/2020 48,554
1,731 3/27/2020 56,788
2,062 3/28/2020 66,028
2,562 3/29/2020 76,314
2,877 3/30/2020 87,692
3,266 3/31/2020 100,241
3,997 4/1/2020
4,669 4/2/2020
5,460 4/3/2020
6,293 4/4/2020

10. Following Chart Is Infection Spread Factor
• This is a first attempt to model the “Infection Spread Factor”
• This tells how many new cases will exist in 15 days based on today’s number
of infectious individuals multiplied by number of days infectious
• Model ASSUME no new cases traveling in or out of the region
• This assumption is obviously invalid
• New Orleans spike after Madri Gras (In February 25th period)
• Ban Flights From China February 1
• Ban Flights From Europe March 11
• Texas seems to show spikes from infectious persons arriving from Louisiana, New York
and Europe
• Otherwise, would expect Infection Spread Factor to be in the 1.0 to 3.0 range
• Washington State seems to be the one area not having infectious persons entering

11. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2/19/2020 2/26/2020 3/4/2020 3/11/2020 3/18/2020 3/25/2020
AttempToShowHowManyNewCasesFromOneInfection
Estimate Of Number Of Cases From One Infection
Assume Closed Population, No Travel Into Region
USA Total
New York
Washington
Louisiana
Texas

12. Following Chart Attempt to Measure Effect Of
Social Distancing
• Similar to Chart 10 and 11, but focuses only on mass transfer from
infectious person to new cases
• This is a first attempt to model the “Social Distancing”
• This tells how many new cases will exist in 15 days based on today’s number
of infectious individuals

13. Long Term Trend With
New Infectious Person Entering Region

14. Minimize Effect Of Infectious Persons Entering
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
3/11/2020 3/18/2020 3/25/2020
AttemptToShowEffectOfSocialDistancing
Estimate Percent Of Cases From All Infection
Total USA
New York
Washington
Louisiana
Texas