Updated with Model VII which has a much sharper decrease in Case Growth Per Day. Model VII achieves peak New Cases per Day within the two week project, while Model VI New Cases continues to grow over the 14 days.

1. Orr’ Coronavirus Cases
Projection to 4/16/2020
James K. Orr
4/3/2020
Revision A: Added Second Very Optimistic Scenario

2. Changed Methodology
• Per State, computed a moving average of Case Growth Per Day
• Over 7 Days, gives average growth rate over that period that gives final cases
• Evaluated change in Growth Rate Over Time
• Essentially, the first derivative of (Case Growth Per Day)
• Based on Prior data, projected continued decrease in Case Growth
Per Day, then computed Cases by date
• Then projected forward for 14 days using Model VI
• Adding Model VII which reduces the Case Growth Per Day More
Rapidly – enough for a near term peak in new cases per day

3. Case VII Reduces Case Growth Per Day More

4. USA Total Coronavirus Cases – Model VI

5. USA Total Coronavirus Cases – Model VII

6. USA Total Coronavirus Cases – Model VI

7. USA Total Coronavirus Cases – Model VII

8. USA Total Case Growth % Per Day – Model VI

9. USA Total Case Growth % Per Day – Model VII

10. New Coronavirus Cases Per Day – Model VI

11. New Coronavirus Cases Per Day – Model VII

12. State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Alabama 4,093,000 78 480 1,270 2,843 5,041
Alaska 73,545 9 70 147 271 419
Arizona 7,279,000 44 508 1,598 3,802 7,006
Arkansas 3,017,000 62 335 683 1,230 1,865
California 39,512,000 752 3,104 10,414 25,254 46,684
Colorado 5,759,000 277 1,430 3,728 8,244 14,485
Connecticut 3,565,000 159 1,012 3,824 9,887 18,816
Delaware 974,000 30 130 393 907 1,635
District of Columbia 706,000 71 261 586 1,144 1,837
Florida 21,477,000 432 2,483 9,008 23,162 44,628
Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VI

13. Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VII
State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Alabama 4,093,000 78 480 1,270 2,345 3,324
Alaska 73,545 9 70 147 234 304
Arizona 7,279,000 44 508 1,598 3,113 4,552
Arkansas 3,017,000 62 335 683 1,067 1,372
California 39,512,000 752 3,104 10,414 21,088 31,540
Colorado 5,759,000 277 1,430 3,728 6,819 9,613
Connecticut 3,565,000 159 1,012 3,824 8,059 12,337
Delaware 974,000 30 130 393 747 1,078
District of Columbia 706,000 71 261 586 974 1,298
Florida 21,477,000 432 2,483 9,008 18,539 27,990

14. State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Georgia 10,671,000 151 1,525 5,348 13,406 25,370
Guam 166,000 8 45 82 135 192
Hawaii 1,416,000 26 106 286 625 1,088
Idaho 1,787,000 23 190 891 2,646 5,416
Illinois 12,672,000 422 2,538 7,695 17,796 32,133
Indiana 6,723,000 58 645 3,039 9,057 18,579
Iowa 3,156,000 44 179 614 1,514 2,831
Kansas 2,913,000 34 168 552 1,318 2,409
Kentucky 4,468,000 40 248 770 1,814 3,318
Louisiana 4,649,000 392 2,305 9,150 24,529 47,866
Maine 1,344,000 52 155 376 783 1,317
Maryland 6,046,000 107 580 2,331 6,306 12,383
Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VI

15. Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VII
State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Georgia 10,671,000 151 1,525 5,348 10,791 16,107
Guam 166,000 8 45 82 119 147
Hawaii 1,416,000 26 106 286 521 733
Idaho 1,787,000 23 190 891 2,070 3,342
Illinois 12,672,000 422 2,538 7,695 14,662 21,164
Indiana 6,723,000 58 645 3,039 7,078 11,448
Iowa 3,156,000 44 179 614 1,260 1,899
Kansas 2,913,000 34 168 552 1,104 1,639
Kentucky 4,468,000 40 248 770 1,488 2,166
Louisiana 4,649,000 392 2,305 9,150 19,847 30,899
Maine 1,344,000 52 155 376 657 901
Maryland 6,046,000 107 580 2,331 5,093 7,962

16. State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Massachusetts 6,950,000 326 2,417 8,966 22,871 43,120
Michagan 9,884,000 334 2,856 10,791 27,899 53,093
Minnesota 5,640,000 89 346 742 1,394 2,178
Mississippi 2,976,000 80 485 1,177 2,451 4,125
Missouri 6,137,000 28 502 1,834 4,741 9,168
Montana 1,067,000 16 71 241 590 1,097
Nebraska 1,934,000 32 73 246 599 1,109
Neveda 30,808,000 95 420 1,458 3,627 6,827
New Hampshire 1,360,000 44 137 479 1,198 2,264
New Jersey 8,882,000 742 6,876 25,590 65,432 123,568
New Mexico 2,097,000 36 136 403 916 1,633
New York 19,454,000 4,162 37,258 92,381 195,890 333,920
Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VI

17. Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VII
State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Massachusetts 6,950,000 326 2,417 8,966 18,693 28,438
Michagan 9,884,000 334 2,856 10,791 22,740 34,812
Minnesota 5,640,000 89 346 742 1,197 1,569
Mississippi 2,976,000 80 485 1,177 2,056 2,822
Missouri 6,137,000 28 502 1,834 3,790 5,736
Montana 1,067,000 16 71 241 491 738
Nebraska 1,934,000 32 73 246 499 748
Neveda 30,808,000 95 420 1,458 2,925 4,350
New Hampshire 1,360,000 44 137 479 965 1,439
New Jersey 8,882,000 742 6,876 25,590 53,453 81,408
New Mexico 2,097,000 36 136 403 778 1,133
New York 19,454,000 4,162 37,258 92,381 163,599 226,393

18. State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
North Carolina 10,488,000 97 636 1,857 4,321 7,877
North Dakota 782,000 19 52 159 370 671
Ohio 11,689,000 119 867 2,902 7,025 12,970
Oklahoma 3,957,000 46 248 879 2,221 4,227
Oregon 4,218,000 88 316 826 1,831 3,222
Pennsylvania 12,802,000 186 1,687 7,016 19,463 38,893
Rhode Island 1,059,000 44 165 657 1,765 3,450
South Carolina 5,149,000 81 456 1,554 3,813 7,107
South Dakota 885,000 14 46 166 425 817
Tennessee 6,833,000 154 957 2,845 6,481 11,575
Texas 29,996,000 143 1,396 4,669 11,296 20,847
Utah 3,206,000 78 402 1,074 2,328 4,031
Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VI

19. Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VII
State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
North Carolina 10,488,000 97 636 1,857 3,554 5,143
North Dakota 782,000 19 52 159 304 441
Ohio 11,689,000 119 867 2,902 5,868 8,769
Oklahoma 3,957,000 46 248 879 1,785 2,673
Oregon 4,218,000 88 316 826 1,513 2,136
Pennsylvania 12,802,000 186 1,687 7,016 15,220 23,617
Rhode Island 1,059,000 44 165 657 1,428 2,225
South Carolina 5,149,000 81 456 1,554 3,177 4,777
South Dakota 885,000 14 46 166 341 513
Tennessee 6,833,000 154 957 2,845 5,506 8,021
Texas 29,996,000 143 1,396 4,669 9,437 14,098
Utah 3,206,000 78 402 1,074 1,945 2,726

20. State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Vermont 624,000 22 158 338 634 988
Virginia 8,535,000 94 460 1,706 4,351 8,202
Washington 7,615,000 1,376 3,207 6,585 11,929 18,161
West Virginia 1,792,000 5 76 217 496 893
Wisconsin 5,822,000 155 707 1,730 3,628 6,136
Wyoming 579,000 18 57 150 334 591
Total 355,686,545 11,994 81,967 242,423 566,991 1,028,077
Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VI

21. Coronavirus Cases By Date – Model VII
State Population
Actual Cases To
3/19/2020
Actual Cases To
3/26/2020
Actual Cases To
4/02/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/09/2020
Projected Cases
To 4/16/2020
Vermont 624,000 22 158 338 544 713
Virginia 8,535,000 94 460 1,706 3,556 5,410
Washington 7,615,000 1,376 3,207 6,585 10,334 13,328
West Virginia 1,792,000 5 76 217 410 588
Wisconsin 5,822,000 155 707 1,730 3,038 4,183
Wyoming 579,000 18 57 150 276 390
Total 355,686,545 11,994 81,967 242,423 467,097 681,154