By Joeri Van Mierlo
It is an exciting period of time, where the transi-tion towards a more sustainable mobility via the introduction of electric vehicles is taking place. What are the benefits and barriers for the e-mobility developments? Driving range, charging infrastructure availability and especially cost are perceived as important barriers for the mar-ket take-up of electric vehicles. Driving range is defined by o.a. battery performance. The chal-lenge of infrastructure lies in the return on investment (chicken and egg problem). And the cost will evolve by technological improvement, market take-up and in the mean time policy support. The purchase price of electric vehicles is currently higher than of conventional vehicles, however the driving cost is lower. Based on a Total Cost of ownership (TCO) different vehicle technologies can be compared. Results are strongly depending on the market segment assessed as well as on the incentives put forward by the legislation. How to compare the environmental performance of different vehicle technologies? Vehicles with lower tailpipe emissions are perceived as cleaner. However, does it make sense to look only to tail-pipe emissions? Limiting the comparison only to these emissions denies the fact that there are emissions involved during the production of a fuel. Would it be enough to combine fuel pro-duction and tailpipe emissions? Especially when comparing the environmental performance of electric vehicle technologies, the emissions during production of the specific components and their appropriate end-of-life treatment processes should also be taken into account. Therefore, the complete life cycle (LCA) of the vehicle should be included in order to avoid problem shifting from one life stage to another.
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E-mobility
The transition towards sustainable mobility
Prof. Dr. ir. Joeri Van Mierlo
Director of Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology Research Centre
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 2
25%
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 3Joris Besseling
57% NOx – 25% PM
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 4
Jonathan C. Wheeler
1 Billion Euro’s per Day
for import of Oil in Europe
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 5
Manon
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 6
Strong foundations
1979 - Vrije Universiteit Brussel
2014 - Vrije Universiteit Brussel
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Vrije Universiteit Brussel
13
Growth
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
3.500.000
4.000.000
4.500.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industry
IWT, Belspo, Innoviris, etc
EU
€
Over the past 5 years the group undertook
• 21 EU projects,
• 59 projects with the industry,
• and 61 projects funded by national organizations.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
14
Ongoing EU projects
E-mobility
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 16
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 17
Top 3 Barriers for EVs
Limited charging
infrastructure
Limited driving range
High purchase cost
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 18
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Charging
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 20
Infrastructure needs
Where is your car during one week?
HomeWork
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 21 Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van MierloMOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology 22
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
60,00%
70,00%
Vlaanderen Walonië Brussel
Garage en parking gelegenheden in België
% aantal gebouwen met garage, parking of overdekte staanplaats / aantal gebouwen
% aantal gebouwen met garage, parking of overdekte staanplaats / aantal woongelegenheden
Bron: FOD Economie
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van MierloMOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology 23
Intelligent roll-out of infrastructure
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Charging Infrastructure Location
Fast Chargers
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How Green are Clean vehicles?
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Real life emissions (exhaust/non-‐‑
exhaust/non regulated)
M. Messagie- VUB 27
Real-‐‑time emissions of full supply chain of
electricity generation
28
Extensive Bill-‐‑of-‐‑Materials of all components
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 29
Life Cycle Assessment
Raw
materials
Production of
components
Assembly and
distribiution
Waste
Raw
materials
Refining and
transport
Distribution
Usage
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Ozone formation
Elementary
flows
Midpoint
impacts
Endpoint
Damages
Climate
change
Acidification
Eutrophication
Fossil fuel
depletion
PM formation
Land use
Human
toxicity
Radiation Eco toxicity
Ozone depletion
CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, Cd, Benzene, iron ore, hard coal, land use, …
and other elementary flows (emissions and resources)
Human
health
Ecosystem
Resource
availability
Single score
Mineral
depletion
Water use
Inventory
model
Raw materials Production of
components
Assembly and
distribiution
Waste
Raw materials Refining and
production
Distribution
Usage
WTT
Maintenance
Production
TTW
Road
infrastructure 30
FU: 209,470 km
(14.1 years, 14,856 km/yr)
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Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 31
Climate change
Messagie, Maarten; Boureima, Faycal-Siddikou; Coosemans, Thierry; Macharis, Cathy; Van Mierlo, Joeri (2014) A Range-Based Vehicle Life Cycle
Assessment Incorporating Variability in the Environmental Assessment of Different Vehicle Technologies and Fuels. ENERGIES Volume: 7 Issue: 3
Pages: 1467-1482
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Ozone formation
Elementary
flows
Midpoint
impacts
Climate
change
Acidification
Eutrophication
Fossil fuel
depletion
PM formation
Land use
Human
toxicity
Radiation Eco toxicity
Ozone depletion
CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, Cd, Benzene, iron ore, hard coal, land use, …
and other elementary flows (emissions and resources)
Mineral
depletion
Water use
Inventory
model
Raw materials Production of
components
Assembly and
distribiution
Waste
Raw materials Refining and
production
Distribution
Usage
WTT
Maintenance
Production
TTW
Road
infrastructure
32
Single score
33
http://www.demorgen.be/wetenschap/positieve-effecten-elektrische-auto-op-
luchtkwaliteit-overschat-b003bdaf/ Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 34
Air quality in Belgium
"ʺThe most detailed analysis of human health impact of Electric Vehicles”:
hDp://mobi.vub.ac.be/mobi/news/the-‐‑most-‐‑detailed-‐‑analysis-‐‑of-‐‑human-‐‑health-‐‑impact-‐‑of-‐‑electric-‐‑vehicles-‐‑by-‐‑mobi/ (English)
-‐‑Compositie van slijtage van banden en remschijven
-‐‑Verspreiding, opname en schade van de toxische stoffen
-‐‑Real-‐‑life emissies
-‐‑incl. Non-‐‑regulated emissies
Refinery-to-tank (RTT)
Tank-to-Wheel (TTW)
Non-Exhaust (NEx)
M. Messagie- VUB 35
Supply chain risks
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Vehicle
database
Parameterized LCI model
Monte Carlo
assessment
Vehicle
segmentation
Data fitting
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
970
1035.4
1100.8
1166.2
1231.6
1297
1362.4
1427.8
1493.2
Density
Weight [kg]
Parameterized vehicle-LCA model
36
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Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 37
Single score
Messagie, M., et.al.. (2014) A Range-Based Vehicle Life Cycle Assessment
Incorporating Variability in the Environmental Assessment of Different Vehicle
Technologies and Fuels. ENERGIES Volume: 7 Issue: 3 Pages: 1467-1482
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 38
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Influence of the electricity mix
Ref: Messagie, M., et.al. (2014) A Range-Based Vehicle Life Cycle Assessment
Incorporating Variability in the Environmental Assessment of Different Vehicle
Technologies and Fuels. ENERGIES
39
How affordable are Clean Vehicles?
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 41
TCO methodology
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Passenger cars – medium cars
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Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Passenger cars – medium cars - subsidy
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Passenger cars – premium cars
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Company cars – medium cars
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Company cars – premium cars
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 49 Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Electrification:
1 mln. additional jobs in 2030 in EU
2 mln. additional jobs in 2050 in EU
50
Source: Fuelling EUROPE’S Future, 2013
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Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 51
Fun to drive and …. J
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – MOBI – Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo 52
Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo
Phone +32 2 629 28 03
Email joeri.van.mierlo@vub.ac.be
Office Building Z (ZE109)
Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels
mobi.vub.ac.be
twitter.com/MOBI_VUB
Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Research centre
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Pag.
End of Oil (video)
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J. Van Mierlo - VUB