final thesis msc energy engineering

1. Prospects for renewable
Hydrogen in the implementation
of the EU hydrogen strategy in
Sweden and Spain
- An analysis of stock market companies –
18th August 2022
Supervisor: Karl Hillman
Author: Sergi Contelles

2. Introduction: Energy Transition context
Coal burning and
nuclear reopening?
I
Distance
working?
Poles melting
Supply Chain
break
Ukraine War
Iran nuclear deal
at the brink of
the abyss
Saving Energy
European Plan
Diplomatic rupture
Spain-Algeria
Hydrogen arose to become a global
energy carrier for the Energy Transition.
Venezuela
resumes relations
with the US and
sells oil
Broken
cooperation in
climate change
between China
and USA
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity,
Ambiguity (VUCA times) is the context of
the energy transition.
2

3. Introduction: Renewable Hydrogen
1. Production:
Wind and solar
2. Transformation:
Pure H2, synthtetic
fuels, green ammonia
3. Transportation:
Shipping (liquid),
trucks (liquid),
pipelines (gas),
storage
4. End-use:
Priority use of H2 in
hard-to-abate sectors
as steel, chemical,
oil&gas sectors and
heavy transport.
Secondary use in
power generation
and others
3

4. Introduction: European Hydrogen Strategy
Different
Climate
Energy Sources
Energy consumption
Policies
Geography
(i) Which kind of projects in
renewable Hydrogen will be in
both EU countries?
(ii) Which are the similarities
and differences in the
implementation of H2 the
strategies?
(iii) Which are prospects for
renewable Hydrogen in the two
countries?
(iv) Which logic in the
investments of both countries is
expected?
… others
4

5. Method: study object
H2 Policies
Stock Exchange
investments
& Energy background
Energy
background
5

6. Method: Procedure
Policy analysis:
1. A hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral
Europe – European Comission, Brussels, July
2020
2. Förslag till Sveriges nationella strategi för
vätgas, elektrobränslen och ammoniak
3. Hoja de ruta del hidrógeno: una apuesta por
el hidrógeno renovable. – Ministerio para la
Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico,
Madrid, October 2020.
Energetic background analysis:
Bibliographic analysis of
energetic baseline in Sweden
and Spain
6

7. Method: Procedure
Common
Frameworks
Dynamic
Companies
High liquidity
& revenues
Transparent
companies
Stock exchange
companies
analysis
OMX-Stockholm30
vs
IBEX-35 companies
Analysed sources:
Sustainability reports,
annual reports, press
releases, news, etc.
Settled
Companies
7

8. Results: Policy hydrogen plans
Common points:
- Develop a full scale
H2 energy system
based on green and
blue hydrogen
- H2 must be used as
a valuable source,
used only in hard-
to-abate sectors
- Considered a way to
increase the energy
security in their
energy systems
- Chase of leadership
in the renewable
hydrogen market
Different points:
- Sweden has bigger
ambitions of 15 GW
of electrolysis by
2045
- Spain has a full
deployed hydrogen
strategy with 8.900
M€ public funds
8

9. Results: Energetic background
Oil, coal & gas:
Oil TEC 21%
Biofuels TEC 24%
Natural Gas TEC 2%
Coal TEC 3%
Steel&iron not
decarbonised
Electricity:
33% TEC; where:
Hydro 39% share
Nuclear 39% share
Wind 12% share
Others
Oil, coal & gas:
Oil 51% TEC
Gas 25% TES
Coal 4% TES
Biofuels, residual
Electricity:
24% TEC; where:
37% share from wind
(55%), hydro (24%) solar
(15%)
41% share from
hydrocarbons
20% share nuclear
Summary:
Diversified decarbonised
economy. Still relying in
oil. Iron&steel not
decarbonised.
Summary:
Not very decarbonised
economy. High bets on
natural gas. Many
industrial sectors not
decarbonized, specially
petrochemical sector.
9

10. Results: Stock market companies analysis
• Potential members of Hydrogen Energy System
57
63
53 54
43
37
47 46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Swedish companies Spanish companies % cap. Swedish companies% cap. Spanish companies
Potential Hydrogen Energy System Members
Yes No
Potential members:
Producers of renewable energies,
transformation industries, transportation,
and logistics companies, and a final broad
range of end-users including industry,
transport, and Heat&Power producers
Non Potential members:
banks, financial services,
telecommunication companies, other
companies not involved directly in the
hydrogen energy system
10

11. Results: Stock market companies analysis
• Hydrogen promotion
Anual Reports:
OMX-Stockholm30
Yes: 40%
No: 60%
IBEX-35
Yes*: 51%
No: 49%
News, conferences, press releases, etc.:
OMX-Stockholm30
Yes: 43%
No: 57%
IBEX-35
Yes*: 66%
No: 34%
*Includes many finance companies
11

12. Results: Stock market companies analysis
• Clusters and joint ventures
Clusters and joint ventures:
OMX-Stockholm30
Yes: 23%
No: 77%
IBEX-35
Yes: 31%
No: 69%
Major clusters and joint ventures:
OMX-Stockholm30
HYBRIT, GreenSteel
Iron and Steel sector
IBEX-35
Catalina, Shyne, HYDEAL, Iberdrola
projects
More than 13 GW electrolyser
capacity by 2030
Petrochemical, chemical and iron
and steel sector
Supply
Storage &
Transportatio
n
Demand
Hydrog
en
Services
Europe
an
Funds
Stock
Exchange
Companies
Investments
€ €
12

13. Results: Stock market companies analysis
• International projection
Global
H2
Energy
System
EU H2
Energy
System
Country
H2
Energy
System
International investment:
OMX-Stockholm30
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
IBEX-35
Yes: 26%
No: 74%
Investments in EU countries:
OMX-Stockholm30
20%
IBEX-35
14%
Investment outside EU countries:
OMX-Stockholm30
13%
IBEX-35
17%
1.
RepowerEU
10 Mt H2
imported
2. European
Hydrogen
Strategy
10 Mt
produced
1. 2.
13

14. Discussion: Results
• Hydrogen roadmaps are very similar in Sweden and Spain
• Energetic backgrounds are very different in Sweden and Spain. Sweden is highly
decarbonized and electrified. Spain has enormous potential as a renewable
energy producer but still relies on oil and gas as main energy carriers
• OMX-Stockholm30 companies are investing in H2 to decarbonize iron & steel
industry. IBEX-35 firms are investing in H2 to decarbonize the petrochemical,
chemical, and iron & steel industry
• OMX-Stockholm30 and IBEX-35 companies are investing outside national
territories, showing the idea that H2 is a global market, not just an EU project
• Both countries are trying to decarbonize the hard-to-abate sectors. In addition,
Spain is trying to become the south energy hub of the EU, betting on renewable
hydrogen as a key element. The future of the hydrogen energy systems of
Sweden and Spain will be in that direction.
14

15. Discussion: Method
• This final thesis had not been developed without the energy systems
approach
• Stock exchange comparison gave some important data that allow a
generic qualitative analysis. Combined with the policy analysis and
the energetic background gives a reasonable tool to do a prospective
of the hydrogen energy system in both countries
• Lack of some major Swedish companies as Vattenfall among others,
that are not part of OMX-Stockholm30
• Lack of direct information obtained from interviews
15

16. Conclusions
• Sweden and Spain are trying to implement H2 strategies with many similarities
(hard-to-abate sectors, energy security). Both countries have very different energy
backgrounds. Sweden is highly decarbonised, on the other hand, Spain has a broader
dependency on oil&gas than Sweden. The investments of OMX-Stockholm30 are
mainly in iron&Steel and outside Sweden. IBEX-35 companies are investing in huge
H2 projects (>13GW by 2030), and in international projects too.
• Could be interesting to analyse other EU countries with the same method (stock
exchange analysis). In Sweden could be investigated how OMX-Stockholm30 is
investing in iron&steel H2 projects. In Spain could be developed studies that chase
how IBEX-35 companies are betting on H2 as an element to become Spain in the EU
energy hub.
• Renewable hydrogen can become a fundamental energy carrier to achieve the
sustainability of the European Energy System. Economic growth, security of supply,
and reduction of greenhouse emissions can be improved with the renewable H2 16

17. Thanks for your attention!
Tack för din uppmärksamhet!
• Time for questions
17