Gold Price Forecast

1. Gold Price Forecast

2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• XAU/USD Looks North With Eyes On ECB, US Q3
GDP
• Gold Teases Descending Triangle On The 4H Chart
• Gold Bulls Remains The Pattern Target
• The XAU/USD Back Above
• Gold (XAU/USD) Flirts
• Gold Analysis: Reaches Above 1,800.00
• Intraday Market Analysis: Gold Seeks Support
• Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
• XAUUSD Chart

3. XAU/USD Looks North With Eyes On
ECB, US Q3 GDP
• Gold price is building onto Wednesday’s
recovery in the lead-up to the European
Central Bank (ECB) decision and the US
Q3 GDP release.
• In the view of FXStreet’s Dhwani
Mehta, risks appear skewed to the
upside for XAU/USD.

4. Gold Teases Descending Triangle On
The 4H Chart
• “Investors turn cautious and seek shelter in
the traditional safe-haven gold, awaiting the
ECB outcome for clues on whether they would
consider tightening monetary policy earlier
than thought.”
• “The US Q3 growth figures will provide fresh
signs on economic recovery, with the country
likely to grow 2.7% QoQ vs. a 6.7% jump seen
previously.”

5. Gold’s Four-hour Chart
• “Gold’s four-hour chart shows that the price
has been teasing a descending triangle
breakout, with a candlestick closing above
the falling trendline resistance at $1803
awaited.
• If the upside breakout from the triangle
materializes, then a fresh advance towards
the weekly highs of $1810 cannot be ruled
out

6. Gold Bulls Remains The Pattern Target
• The next goal for gold bulls remains the pattern
target measured at $1835, where the September
month highs coincide.”
• “The 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1798
will be the immediate cushion, below which the
daily lows of $1794 could get retested.
• A sharp drop towards the bullish 50-SMA at
$1787 will be on the cards if the latter caves in.”

7. XAU/USD Retakes $1,800, Upside
Potential Limited Ahead Of US GDP
• Gold consolidates weekly losses during two-
day uptrend, eases from daily high of late.
• US dollar differs from firmer Treasury yields,
helps gold buyers amid market’s indecision,
central bank moves.
• US GDP, ECB and US stimulus updates are the
key for fresh impulse.
• Bulls trying to recover the 1,800 mark.

8. The XAU/USD Back Above
• Gold built on the previous day's rebound
from the vicinity of weekly lows and edged
higher through the Asian session on
Thursday.
• The momentum pushed the XAU/USD back
above the $1,800 mark, though a
combination of factors might keep a lid on
any meaningful upside.

9. The US Treasury Bond Yields
• A generally positive tone around the equity
markets could act as a headwind for the safe-
haven precious metal.
• Apart from this, a solid rebound in the US
Treasury bond yields, along with expectations
for an early policy tightening by major central
bank might further collaborate to cap gains for
the non-yielding yellow metal.

10. The Outlook – Amid Worries
• Moreover, investors seem to have moved on the
sidelines ahead of Thursday's key event risk – the
highly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting.
• The ECB is expected to leave its monetary policy
settings unchanged, though the outlook – amid
worries about rising inflationary pressures – should
infuse some volatility in the markets.
• Beyond this, traders will focus on the release of the
Advance US Q3 GDP report.
• The data will play a key role in driving the USD demand
and influence dollar-denominated commodities,
including gold.

11. Gold (XAU/USD) Flirts
• Gold (XAU/USD) flirts with the $1,800 threshold, keeps
the previous day’s rebound amid softer USD during
early Thursday.
• The yellow metal recovered the previous day from the
weekly bottom as the US dollar faded the bounce off a
one-month low, tracking the US Treasury yields.
• The latest run-up in the gold prices, however, could be
linked to the market’s fears of an end to the easy
money policies introduced during the pandemic.
• It’s worth noting that the hopes of US stimulus and
Sino-American tussles are extra catalysts that helped
the gold buyers at the latest.

12. Gold Fundamental Overview
• Spiking short-term US Treasury yields amid increasing
bets of Fed’s monetary policy normalization, in the
face of strengthening economic recovery, leading to
the flattening of the yield curve.
• As the yield curve flattens, it also re-ignites stagflation
fears amid the persistence of rising price pressures
globally, which is possibly keeping the buoyant tone
intact around the traditional safe-haven gold price.
• However, gold bulls remain cautious and refrain from
placing any fresh bets ahead of the key event risks for
this week.

13. The Balance Of Risks Appears To Be
Siding With A Nascent Bull
• “Gold is quietly making a bullish inverse head-
and-shoulders since June – thus the nascent
gold bull is quietly knocking at the door.
• The neckline stands around $1830, for that
pattern to take off.
• A secondary confirmation probably requires
gold to surmount and sustain over the weekly
Ichimoku’ cloud fringe resistance at $1873.

14. Gold Analysis: Reaches Above 1,800.00
• The price of gold found enough support in the
200-hour simple moving average to surge and
pass the 1,800.00 level together with the 55
and 100-hour simple moving averages, which
strengthened the round price level.
• On Thursday morning, the price was testing
the resistance of the 1,805.00 level.

15. Gold Analysis: Reaches Above 1,800.00 - I
• If the price continues to surge, it would most
likely test the resistance of the 1,810.00 level,
which reversed the metal's recovery on Monday.
• On the other hand, a decline of the metal could
find support in the combination of the 55 and
100-hour simple moving averages above the
1,795.00 level.
• Below the 1,795.00, the 200-hour SMA at
1,786.00 might once again act as a support level.

16. Intraday Market Analysis: Gold Seeks
Support
• Gold treads water as markets await a slew of central
bank decisions in the coming days.
• The recent break above the daily resistance at 1805 is a
prerequisite for a bullish turnaround.
• However, the rally has met stiff selling pressure at the
supply zone around 1813 which is at the origin of the
September sell-off.
• Along with a repeatedly overbought RSI, a combination
of profit-taking and fresh selling may weigh on the
precious metal in the short term. 1777 is the
immediate support and its breach would send the price
to 1760.

17. XAU/USD Consolidates Gains

18. Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

19. XAUUSD Chart

20. Gold Price Forecast

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Price Forecast