Gold price futures (GC) Technical Analysis - Trade Through$1851.00 Confirms Closing Price Reversal Top

1. Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical
Analysis –Trade Through $1851.00
Confirms Closing Price Reversal Top

2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• Comex Gold Futures Contract
• Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
• Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
• Gold Breakout Hits A Wall- XAU/USD Levels
• Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly
• Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price
Chart
• IG Client Sentiment

3. Comex Gold Futures Contract
• The direction of the December Comex gold
futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be
determined by trader reaction to $1865.30.
• Gold futures are trading nearly flat early
Wednesday after posting a dramatic closing
price reversal top the previous session.
• The chart pattern doesn’t change the trend to
down, but if confirmed, it could trigger the
start of a minimum 2 to 3 day correction.

4. Comex Gold Futures Contract - I
• At 04:07 GMT, December Comex gold
futures are trading $1855.40, up $1.30 or
+0.07%.
• Retail sales in the United States accelerated
more than expected last month, giving the
economy a lift at the start of the fourth
quarter and sending the dollar to a 16-month
high.

5. Gold Futures Trade

6. Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
• The main trend is up according to the daily
swing chart, however, momentum may be
getting ready to shift to the downside.
• A trade through $1879.50 will negate the
closing price reversal top and signal the
resumption of the uptrend.
• A trade through $1851.00 will confirm the
potentially bearish closing price reversal top
and shift momentum to the downside.

7. Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis - I
• On the upside, resistance is a pair of main tops
at $1919.10 and $1922.00.
• On the downside, potential support is a
former main top at $1839.00, a Fibonacci level
at $1828.80 and a short-term 50% level at
$1819.00.
• The major support is a pair of 50% levels at
$1800.00 and $1795.00.

8. Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
• The direction of the December Comex gold
futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be
determined by trader reaction to $1865.30.
Bullish Scenario
• A sustained move over $1865.30 will indicate
the presence of buyers. If this creates enough
upside momentum then look for a test of
$1879.50.

9. Bullish Scenario - I
• Taking out $1879.50 will indicate the
buying is getting stronger.
• This could trigger an acceleration into
$1919.00 to $1922.00 if the buying
volume is strong enough.

10. Bearish Scenario
• A sustained move under $1865.30 will signal the
presence of sellers.
• Taking out $1851.00 will confirm the closing price
reversal top and could drive the market into a
series of downside targets at $1839.00, $1828.80
and $1819.00.
• Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in
on a test of any of these levels, but if $1819.00
fails then look for the selling to possibly extend
into $1800.00 to $1795.00.

11. Gold Breakout Hits A Wall- XAU/USD
Levels
• Gold prices have surged nearly 12% off the
August lows with the XAU/USD breakout now
testing initial resistance objectives at five-week
highs.
• While the broader focus remains constructive,
the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the
days ahead.
• These are the updated targets and invalidation
levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly
technical chart.

12. Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

13. A Trading Standpoint
• In last Gold Weekly Price Outlook we noted that,
“A multi-month consolidation in Gold is taking
shape just above broader uptrend support.
• From a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for
downside exhaustion ahead of 1738 in the weeks
ahead with a breach above 1849 ultimately
needed to fuel the next leg higher towards 1900.”
• Price registered a low at 1758 in the following
days before reversing sharply higher to close at
1864 last week.

14. A Trading Standpoint - I
• The rally takes price into confluent resistance at the
January trendline / 100% extension of the August advance
at 1876- may see some kickback here.
• Initial support at 1825 backed by the 52-week moving
average at 1804- both areas of interest for possible
downside exhaustion IF reached.
• Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August advance
at 1754.
• A topside breach / close above this slope keeps the focus
on critical resistance at the yearly high-close / June swing
high / 61.8% retracement of the 2020 decline at 1903/23-
look for a larger reaction / pivot there IF reached.

15. A Trading Standpoint - II
• The Gold breakout takes price into confluent
technical resistance at 1876 – the immediate
long-bias may be vulnerable while below this
threshold.
• From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce
long-exposure / raise protective stops –
ultimately a pullback here may offer more
favorable opportunities closer to uptrend
resistance.
• A topside breach from here keeps the focus on
key resistance just above 1900.

16. GOLD TRADER SENTIMENT – XAU/USD
PRICE CHART

17. IG Client Sentiment
• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows
traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at
+2.13 (68.08% of traders are long) –
typically bearish reading.
• Long positions are2.38% higher than
yesterday and 3.87% higher from last week
• Short positions are 5.10% lower than
yesterday and 16.74% lower from last week

18. IG Client Sentiment - I
• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd
sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long
suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.
• Traders are further net-long than yesterday
and last week, and the combination of current
positioning and recent changes gives us a
stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias
from a sentiment standpoint.

19. Gold Bearish

20. Thanks for listening
Trade Through $1851.00 Confirms
Closing Price Reversal Top

21. Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical
Analysis –Trade Through $1851.00
Confirms Closing Price Reversal Top