4. Gold Prices Week In Review
• It was a great week for gold prices across the
board. Every single gold-cross gained at least
+3%, but for one – gold in USD-terms (XAU/USD),
which added +2.57%.
• The top performing gold-cross was gold in EUR-
terms (XAU/EUR), which added +3.72%, while
gold in AUD-terms (XAU/AUD) and gold in NZD-
terms (XAU/NZD) were not far behind, adding
+3.60% and +3.66%, respectively.
5. Gold Prices Week In Review - I
• The bulk of gains emerged mid-week after the October
US inflation report (CPI), which showed the highest
price pressures in the United States since 1990.
• Gold’s gains came as rising realized inflation readings
were met with a corresponding jump in inflation
expectations, which outpaced nominal long-end yields,
curating an environment of falling real yields.
• If US real yields stay near record lows, gold prices may
still be able to tack on further gains in the coming
sessions.
6. Economic Calendar Week Ahead
• The turn through the ides of November will see
several more inflation reports due from G10
economies, which may provide another boost for
gold prices in the middle of the week.
• Speeches from various European Central Bank
and Federal Reserve policymakers could help
determine whether or not gold’s gains stick,
insofar as central bankers ignoring the continued
rise in inflation pressures could bring about
another wave of fresh lows in real yields.
7. Economic Calendar Week Ahead - I
• On Tuesday, gold in GBP-terms (XAU/GBP) will
be in focus when the September UK
unemployment rate and the August UK
employment change figures are released.
• Gold in EUR-terms (XAU/EUR) could also see
some volatility around the release of the
revised Eurozone 3Q’21 GDP report.
• October US retail sales will bring gold in USD-
terms (XAU/USD) into the spotlight.
8. Economic Calendar Week Ahead - II
• On Wednesday, a trio of inflation reports
should produce the most volatile trading day
of the week for gold prices.
• The October UK inflation report (CPI), the final
October Eurozone inflation report (HICP), and
the October Canada inflation report (CPI)
should catalyze gold in GBP-terms (XAU/GBP),
gold in EUR-terms (XAU/EUR), and gold
in CAD-terms (XAU/CAD), respectively.
9. Economic Calendar Week Ahead - III
• On Thursday, the October Japan inflation
report (CPI) will bring gold in JPY-terms
(XAU/JPY) into focus, although it is likely to be
the least important set of inflation date due
over the course of the week in terms of
potential market impact.
• On Friday, the November UK GfK consumer
confidence report will bring gold in GBP-terms
(XAU/GBP) into the spotlight once more.
10. Gold Price Versus Cot Net Non-Commercial
Positioning: Daily Timeframe (November 2020 To
November 2021)
11. Gold Price Versus Cot Net Non-
Commercial Positioning - I
• Next, a look at positioning in the futures market.
• According to the CFTC’s COT data, for the week
ended November9, speculators increased their
net-long gold futures positions
to225,597 contracts, up from the 225,443 net-
long contracts held in the week prior.
• The futures market remains at its most net-long
positioning since the second week of June.
13. IG Client Sentiment Index - I
• Gold: Retail trader data shows 66.31% of traders are net-
long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.97 to 1.
• The number of traders net-long is 1.27% lower than
yesterday and 1.84% higher from last week, while the
number of traders net-short is 2.10% lower than yesterday
and 1.74% higher from last week.
• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment,
and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may
continue to fall.
• Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week,
and the combination of current sentiment and recent
changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading
bias.
