Gold Battles $1,800 As USD Lingers Near Highs

1. Gold Battles $1,800 As USD
Lingers Near Highs

2. Points To Be Covered Today:
• XAU/USD Treads Water Near $1,800, Bearish Bias Stays Intact
• US Census Bureau
• Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index
• Gold Technical Outlook
• Gold: Next Support Lines Up At $1,760
• Gold Prices Loiter Near The $1,800 Mark
• Gold Technical Analysis
• Gold Four – Hour Chart
• Gold Technical & Fundamental Overview

3. XAU/USD Treads Water Near $1,800, Bearish Bias
Stays Intact
• XAU/USD is fluctuating in a tight range on Tuesday.
• Gold continues to trade near the 100-day SMA.
• Focus shifts to macroeconomic data releases from US.
• The XAU/USD pair closed the first day of the week in the negative territory.
• Although the US Dollar Index edged lower, the risk-positive market
environment made it difficult for gold to find demand.
• Ahead of Tuesday's key macroeconomic data releases from the US, the pair
is moving sideways and was last seen trading flat on the day at $1,798.

4. US Census Bureau
• Later in the session, the US Census Bureau will release the Durable Goods Orders
for June.
• However, investors could remain on the sidelines and show no reaction to this report
while waiting for the FOMC to announce its monetary policy decisions on
Wednesday.
• Previewing the data, "estimates for Durable Goods Orders are likely too high, as
past misses on this release and disappointments in other figures for June allude to,"
said FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam.
• "The market reaction will likely be muted ahead of the Fed – apart from a minor
mean-reversion – but the data would be useful for trading GDP on Thursday."

5. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index
• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for July and
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be featured in the US economic
docket as well.
• On Wednesday, market participants will look for clues regarding the timing of
asset tapering in the Fed's Monetary Policy Statement.
• Moreover, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on the policy outlook
amid renewed concerns over the coronavirus Delta variant hurting the
recovery will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

6. Gold Technical Outlook
• With Tuesday's subdued trading action, key technical levels remain intact for gold.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart continues
to edge lower toward 40, suggesting that the near-term outlook remains bearish.
• Currently, gold is trading a tad below the 100-day SMA at $1,800 and sellers are
likely to remain in control unless the price manages to hold consistently above that
level. On the downside, $1,790 (July 23 low) aligns as the next target ahead of
$1,775 (Fibonacci 61.8 retracement of April-June uptrend).
• On the other hand, $1,820 (200-day SMA) aligns as key resistance
before $1,830/$1,833 area (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 50-day SMA).

7. Scope For Further Downside
• Open interest in gold futures markets rose for the fifth
consecutive session on Monday, this time by around 3.3K
contracts considering flash data from CME Group.
• Volume, instead, shrank by around 38.3K contracts,
extending the choppy activity.

8. Gold: Next Support Lines Up At $1,760
• Gold prices started the week on the negative footing.
• The downtick was amidst increasing open interest, hinting at
the idea that extra pullbacks remain on the cards in the very
near term.
• That said, there is an interim support at the Fibo level around
the $1,760 mark per ounce troy.

9. Gold: Next Support Lines Up At $1,760 - I

10. XAU/USD Slips Below $1,800 As USD Lingers Near Highs
• Gold prices remain pressured for third consecutive day, off intraday low.
• Chatters over covid, US infrastructure bill test traders ahead of the key FOMC.
• US Durable Goods Orders, risk catalysts eyed for short-term direction.
• XAU/USD bears await break below 100-day SMA at $1,796

11. Gold Prices Loiter Near The $1,800 Mark
• Gold prices loiter near the $1,800 mark for the past five trading sessions.
• The US dollar remains steady near the four-month high ahead of the Fed’s interest rate
decision. The prices moved cautiously despite the general negative sentiments
surrounding the greenback.
• The yields on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bonds recovered to 1.28% after
retreating towards 1.27% on Monday. Investors remain reluctant to open new big positions
as they await the FOMC meeting outcome for further clues on the central bank’s next
move on stimulus and economic outlook.
• The meeting would be followed by the speech of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which
could alter the trader’s sentiment.
• The demand is also affected by the rising coronavirus delta variant. The higher USD
valuations make the precious metal expensive for the other currencies holders.

12. Gold (XAU/USD)
• Gold (XAU/USD) licks its wounds around $1,798 amid a subdued Asian session on
Tuesday.
• The yellow metal bounces off an intraday low, but remains depressed for the third
day in a row, as market players embrace the week’s key data/events amid mixed
risk-related headlines.
• While the coronavirus numbers in the UK and Australia placate market bears, the
US flashes mixed readings and challenge the optimists over economic recovery.
• Reuters recently said, “The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
and State Department on Monday both warned against travel to Spain, Portugal,
Cyprus and Kyrgyzstan because of a rising number of COVID-19 cases in those
countries.”
• The list also included the UK and India amid delta variant fears.

13. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
• The jump in covid cases can be witnessed in the states with lower vaccinations,
pushing local governments for jabbing and limiting the international travels despite
strong lobbying by the airlines and travel companies.
• Even so, Wall Street managed to refresh record top amid a jump in technology
shares and as downbeat US housing and activity numbers back the Federal
Reserve’s easy-money policy.
• It should be noted that the global investors’ cautious mood ahead of Wednesday’s
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting joins the recent squabbling of the
US Senators over President Joe Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan to weigh on
the sentiment.
• Additionally, the Sino-American tussles and China’s crackdown on technology
companies may also challenge the gold traders.

14. US 10-year Treasury yields
• Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields remain firmer around 1.28%
whereas S&P 500 Futures drop 0.10% despite the upbeat Wall Street close.
• On a short-term basis, US Durable Goods Orders and Hosing Price Index for
June will be important numbers to watch.
• Should the figures remain softer for June, the Fed will have another reason to
reject tapering and back the gold buyers.
• It’s worth noting that the covid headlines and updates over US stimulus, not to
forget the US-China news, should offer extra filters to gold moves.

15. Gold Technical Analysis
• Gold bears cheer sustained pullback from the key SMAs to attack five-week-old
horizontal support.
• As MACD flirts with sellers, a clear downside break of the broad region between
$1,795 and $1,789 becomes necessary for the bears to dominate going forward.
• Following that, the monthly low of around $1,768 will be in focus.
• On the flip side, 200-SMA guards the quote’s immediate upside near $1,805 before
the 50-SMA level of $1,810.
• Also acting as the key resistance is a descending trend line from July 15 near
$1,813.
• Overall, gold bears inch closer to crucial levels and can keep the reins but it all
depends upon the Fed at the last.

16. Gold Four-Hour Chart

17. Gold Technical Overview

18. Gold Technical Overview - I
• From a technical perspective, the $1,790 level might continue to protect the immediate downside and act as a
pivotal point for short-term traders.
• Sustained weakness below might prompt some aggressive technical selling and accelerate the slide further
towards the $1,765-60 support area.
• This is followed by monthly swing lows, around the $1,750 area, which if broken decisively will shift the near-
term bias back in favour of bearish traders.
• On the flip side, the $1,807-10 area now seems to have emerged as immediate strong resistance.
• Any subsequent positive move is more likely to confront a stiff resistance near the very important 200-day
SMA, currently around the $1,822-23 region. A convincing breakthrough the mentioned barrier will be seen as
a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for additional gains.
• The XAU/USD might then climb towards the $1,845-46 region, en-route the next major hurdle near the
$$1,866 zone. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the commodity further and allow bulls to
aim to reclaim the $1,900 round-figure mark.

19. Gold Fundamental Overview
• Looking at the broader picture, the XAU/USD has been oscillating in a familiar trading range over the
past one week or so.
• Investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets, rather preferred to wait on the sidelines
ahead of this week's event risk – the FOMC meeting starting this Tuesday.
• Policymakers are expected to discuss plans about slowing the pace of monthly bond purchases.
• The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday, which will influence the greenback in the
near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity.
• In the meantime, traders on Tuesday will take cues from the US economic docket, highlighting the
releases of Durable Goods Orders and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.
• This, along with developments surrounding the coronavirus saga, the broader market risk sentiment, the
US bond yields and the USD price dynamics might produce some trading opportunities around the
XAU/USD.

20. Gold Battles $1,800 As USD
Lingers Near Highs

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Battles $1,800 As USD Lingers Near Highs