Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bears Awai A Break Below Ascending Trend - Line Support

1. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD
Bears Await A Break Below
Ascending Trend-line Support

2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• USD Profit-taking Assisted Gold
• Gold Daily Chart
• Technical Levels To Watch
• Shorting Opportunity In XAUUSD ( Gold )
• $1,800 Likely To Cap XAU/USD’s Road To
Recovery

3. USD Profit-taking Assisted Gold
• Some USD profit-taking assisted gold to gain
some positive traction on Thursday.
• Hawkish Fed expectations kept a lid on any
meaningful gains for the commodity.
• Weakness below an ascending trend-line is
needed to confirm a fresh breakdown.
• Gold Price Forecast: Thanksgiving Day unlikely
to offer respite to XAU/USD bulls amid a bear
flag.

4. US Dollar Witnessed Some Profit-
taking
• Gold gained some positive traction on
Thursday, albeit lacked any follow-through and
remained well within the striking distance of a
three-week low touched in the previous day.
• The US dollar witnessed some profit-taking
following the recent strong run up to the
highest level since July 2020.

5. Key Factor That Extended Some
Support
• This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that
extended some support to the dollar-
denominated commodity.
• Apart from this, concerns about the economic
fallout from the rising number of COVID-19
cases and the imposition of fresh lockdown
measures in Europe further underpinned the
safe-haven gold.

6. Stable Performance In The Equity
Markets
• That said, stable performance in the equity
markets, along with hawkish Fed expectations
kept a lid on any further gains for the non-
yielding yellow metal.
• The markets seem convinced that the Fed
would be forced to tighten its monetary policy
sooner rather than later to contain stubbornly
high inflation.

7. The US PCE Price Index
• The bets were reinforced by Wednesday's
release of the US PCE Price Index, which
accelerated to a 30-year high in October.
• Adding to this, the minutes of the November
FOMC meeting revealed that were open to
speeding up the tapering of the bond-buying
program and moving quickly to raise interest
rates if high inflation persists.

8. The Fed Funds Futures
• The Fed funds futures indicate the possibility
for an eventual rate hike move by mid-2022
and a high likelihood of another raise in
November.
• This warrants some caution for bullish traders
and before confirming that gold prices might
have bottomed out in the near term.

9. A Technical Perspective
• The fundamental backdrop remains tilted firmly in
favour of bears, though relatively
thin liquidity conditions on the back of the
Thanksgiving holiday in the US held back traders from
placing fresh bets.
• Even from a technical perspective, gold, so far, has
managed to defend a short-term ascending trend-line
support extending from the September monthly swing
low, around the $1,722 area.
• This further makes it prudent to wait for a convincing
break below the mentioned support before positioning
for any further depreciating move.

10. Gold Daily Chart

11. Technical Levels To Watch

12. Technical Levels To Watch - I

13. Shorting Opportunity In XAUUSD ( Gold )

14. $1,800 Likely To Cap XAU/USD’s Road
To Recovery
• Gold price rebounds but not out of the woods yet
while below $1,800.
• Range play is likely to continue in gold amid
Thanksgiving Holiday.
• Gold could stage a deep correction if $1,850
becomes resistance.
• Gold is in the green zone for the first time this
week, attempting to recover a part of
Wednesday’s sell-off to three-week lows of
$1,779.

15. The Rebound In Gold Price
• Thanksgiving Holiday in the US offers little
motivation to the dollar bulls, as they
consolidate the hawkish Fedspeak and
minutes-led upside.
• The sluggish price action in the yields and the
greenback is aiding the rebound in gold price.
• Although the further upside appears elusive,
as the $1,800 mark is likely to be a tough nut
to crack for gold bulls.

16. Gold Price: Key Levels To Watch
• The Technical Confluences Detector shows that
the gold price is defending critical support around
$1,790, which is the intersection of the SMA50
one-day, Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and
Fibonacci 61.8% one-day.
• If the sellers find a strong foothold below the
latter, then the recent downtrend could resume
towards the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,785.

17. Gold Price: Key Levels To Watch - I
• Further south, the confluence of the Fibonacci
23.6% one-day and Bollinger Band one-hour
Lower at $1,782 will guard the downside.
• The next stop for gold sellers is envisioned at
$1,779, the meeting point of the previous day’s
low and the pivot point one-day S1.
• On the flip side, gold bulls need acceptance
above the powerful $1,797 hurdle, which is the
convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month,
pivot point one-day R1 and the previous day’s
high.

18. Gold Price: Key Levels To Watch - II
• The next relevant upside target is seen at
$1,800, the pivot point one-week S3.
• The additional advances will then challenge
the bearish commitments near $1,807, where
the SMA200 four-hour, Fibonacci 161.8% one-
day and pivot point one-day R2 merge.

19. Here Is How It Looks On The Tool

20. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD
Bears Await A Break Below
Ascending Trend-line Support

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bears
Await A Break Below Ascending Trend-
line Support