2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• Fast Four On Bullion
• Yellow Metal Likely To Remain Range
Bound, Buy On Dips
• Gold, Chart Of The Week: Bears Eye The
38.2% Fibonacci For The Open
• Gold Sentimental Poll
3. Gold Futures Opened Weak
• Gold futures opened weak on Monday at ₹
48,775 per 10 grams for the December
contract, down ₹947 from previous close on
the Multi C
• The precious metals, however, recovered from
the lows and returned to positive territory in
the first hour of the trade.
4. Opening Weakness?
• Gold prices remained under pressure on profit
booking from the 9-month peak levels.
• However, the haven demand didn't taper off amidst
US and European economic uncertainties and the
yellow metal remained a preferred asset-class to pick
on dips.
• The first hour of trade on MCX showed gold making
some recovery from its opening lows of ₹48,766.
• Silver, too, tracked gold on recovery path gaining by
over ₹100 from its opening lows in the initial trades.
5. Spot Movements
• Spot gold was weak as festive purchases
slowed after sparkling Diwali sales a fortnight
ago.
• For the week ended November 18, gold
posted marginal gains of 0.5 per cent to settle
at ₹49,235 per 10 grams (999 purity) as last
quoted by the India Bullion and Jewellers
Association (IBJA)
6. International Gold
• The CME Gold futures for December was last
quoted at $1849.5 an oz (an ounce is equal to
approx. 28.3 grams) on November 21, 0.1%
down from previous close.
• This is lower by over 1 per cent from the
recent highs of $1870 quoted on November
3.
7. International Gold - I
• Analysts maintained that the yellow metal
weighed down by gains in the dollar after
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller
called for early tapering of economic support
to help chart a tighter monetary policy.
• Adding to the weakness is the softening of
demand for the yellow metal in the Asian
countries such as India and China owing to
high price levels in recent months.
8. Outlook
• An Angle Broking report stated that
chances of a rate hike by the US FED
might weigh on Gold prices;
however, rising inflation and global
uncertainties is expected to support
the safe haven asset in the week
ahead.
9. Gold Declines Slightly
• Even as the inflationary trend continued in the
USA and bank and Fed rates remained undecided
about increasing the interest rates, yellow metal
ruled firm in global markets.
• This trend is likely to continue quite for some
time.
• According to experts, gold may touch $ 1,920 (per
Oz) if Fed rate is revised upward in a near future.
• Consequently, New York gold closed at $1,845
(per Ounce)
10. Yellow Metal Likely To Remain Range
Bound, Buy On Dips
• Gold prices stabilised on November 22 after
hitting their lowest in nearly two weeks, as a
retreating dollar lent some support to the
metal.
• A hike in interest rates should reduce bullion’s
appeal as higher rates raise the non-interest
bearing metal’s opportunity cost.
11. Gold, Chart Of The Week: Bears Eye
The 38.2% Fibonacci For The Open
• Gold bears are in control and eye a downside
continutation.
• The 38.2% Fibo is on focus for the week
ahead.
• The price of gold is stalling and bulls have run
out of steam, leaving the yellow metal
vulnerable to a deeper consolidation if prices
fail to hold above the $1,840/oz region.
12. Gold, Chart Of The Week
• The following is an illustration of how the bias
is to the downside at the moment taking into
account the weekly, daily and lower time
frames:
• There is a bias to the downside here until the
38.2% Fibo is reached that marks the prior
highs that would be expected to act as
support on initial tests.
16. Gold This Week
• IHS Markit’s preliminary Manufacturing and Services
PMI surveys for November will be featured in the US
economic docket on Tuesday.
• Ahead of Wednesday’s data dump, the market reaction
to these data is likely to remain subdued.
• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its
second estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic
Product growth alongside the October Personal
Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, Personal
Income and Personal Spending figures. The US Census
Bureau will publish the monthly Durable Goods Orders
report as well.
17. Gold This Week - I
• It will be difficult for market participants to
navigate through all these numbers and settle on
a decision.
• The Core PCE Price Index is likely to have an
impact on the US T-bond yields and gold.
• In the second half of the week, trading conditions
will thin out due to the Thanksgiving holiday in
the US and XAU/USD could fluctuate between
technical levels heading into the weekend.
18. Gold This Week - II
• A higher-than-expected print could ramp up
the probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate
hike in June, which currently stands at 44%
according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool,
and weigh on XAU/USD.
• However, gold’s status as an inflation-hedge
could allow the pair to find support.
