Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Sandvik - Michaux

489 views

Published on

  • DOWNLOAD FULL BOOKS, INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Sandvik - Michaux

  1. 1. 14/7/2014
  2. 2. Summary • Technological and sustainability gap in mining • The lowering of ore grade • Energy sources and reserves • Water • Several possible technical solutions presented • Systemic interaction of these issues in the industrial sector 2
  3. 3. Conventional Model for Sustainable Priorities A completely new business model is now appropriate Business has been done a certain way for the last 100 years. Now lets do it for another 100. 3 At this time, globally it seems, all sustainability work in mining is totally targeted at community and social engagement; even the environmental aspects are about planting trees and supporting local wildlife; nothing on reducing waste/energy/toxins
  4. 4. Dynamic Self Regulating Finite System This system is not growing and has been stable for some time 4
  5. 5. Oil Coal Gas 5 Exponential growth in a finite system is not sustainable Consumption of all natural resources are following this basic pattern over time
  6. 6. Try this for size… Enough for everyone, for ever If you are not considering all three of these things then you are not sustainable 6
  7. 7. 48% Decrease in Multifactor Productivity 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Indexed2000-01=100 Topp et al. (2008) Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) 7
  8. 8. MFP growth in Australia, selected sectors, average annual growth Most of the slowdown in Australia MFP attributable to mining and electricity generation, water and waste 8
  9. 9. Conventional mining practice is struggling to remain economically viable Ore Grades Are Decreasing 9
  10. 10. 1800’s North American Continent Large nuggets found in river beds Yes that’s a nugget of pure copper! Smaller nuggets found in streams Grade 15-20%Finally started to dig Cu out of the ground 1850’s 10
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. Metal Price Cost (Indexed to the year 2000) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 RealPrice Indexed2000-01=100 Au Cu Pb Zn Ag Ni Al Fe Ore Year 2008 (GFC) CurrentMiningcrash ABS 1350.0 Financial Markets - Long term http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/1350.0Jul%202012?OpenDocument ABARES - Australian Mineral Statistics March 2011 12
  13. 13. Source: Nature 26 Jan 2012, Vol 481 Comment Price $50 USD/barrel Price $147 USD/barrel Peak Conventional Oil Production - 2006 International Energy Agency http://makewealthhistory.org/2010/11/11/iea-peak-oil-happened-in-2006/ Source: EIA, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects, Tony Erikson “ace” theoildrum.com GFC 2008 World Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production, Including Canada Oil Sands 13
  14. 14. Oil Demand & supply & the GFC GFC Oil is the ability to do work 14
  15. 15. GFC Oil Production Static 15
  16. 16. China industrial demand dominated the rest of the planet China now dominates manufacturing and resource consumption 16
  17. 17. We are 8 years into an era of industrial transformation 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 RealPrice Indexed2000-01=100 Au Cu Pb Zn Ag Ni Al Fe Ore Oil supply became inelastic Chinese industrial demand 17
  18. 18. Total Mining costs have also risen 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 Total Income Total Expenses ABS 1350.0 Financial Markets - Long term http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/1350.0Jul%202012?OpenDocument ABARES - Australian Mineral Statistics March 2011 18
  19. 19. Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2008 Energy consumption in mining increased 450% in the last 40 years 19
  20. 20. 20
  21. 21. Total energy consumption by process path This is a very different conversation to recovery efficiency. Different mineralogy's require different process paths Source: Energy efficiency and copper hydrometallurgy J.Marsden 2008 Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold Energy efficiency may be a priority for process design as soon as 2018 21
  22. 22. Total energy consumption as a function of ore head grade for various process routes Many new proposed operations are considering a cut-off grade of 0.1% on leach pads Source: Energy efficiency and copper hydrometallurgy J.Marsden 2008 Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold 22
  23. 23. Rock breakage - There is no free lunch, or short cuts Kambalda 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 0 5 10 15 20 Cumulative Energy, kWh/t P80Size,mm Flowsheet 1 Flowsheet 2 Flowsheet 3 Flowsheet 4 Flowsheet 5 40x10mm Feed -9.5mm Crush -3.35mm Crush HPGR Pass 1 HPGR Pass 2 Bond Test - 125um CS Bond Test - 75um CS Leinster 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Cumulative Energy, kWh/t P80Size,mm Flowsheet 1 Flowsheet 2 Flowsheet 3 Flowsheet 4 Flowsheet 5 Flowsheet 3a Flowsheet 4a 40x10mm Feed -9.5mm Crush -3.35mm Crush HPGR Pass 1 HPGR Pass 2 Batch Grind 2 HPGR Pass 3 HPGR Pass 4 Batch Grind 3 Batch Grind 1 Mine Site ‘X’ Mine Site ‘Y’ The cumulative energy consumed to process a sample to a target P80 is very similar across all conventional process paths. M. Hilden 23
  24. 24. Energy Consumed kJ per lb of copper produced Mining 6,000 (kJ/lb) Primary crushing & conveying 900 (kJ/lb) SAG Milling 10,700 (kJ/lb) Ball Milling 10,590 (kJ/lb) Flotation & regrinding 1,870 (kJ/lb) Smelting 5,150 (kJ/lb) Refining 2,700 (kJ/lb) Transport to market 120 (kJ/lb) Primary Crush, SAG mill, ball mill, flotation, smelt, refine Source: Energy efficiency and copper hydrometallurgy J.Marsden 2008 Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold
  25. 25. Energy Consumed kJ per lb of copper produced Mining 6,000 (kJ/lb) Primary crushing & conveying 900 (kJ/lb) Secondary crushing 450 (kJ/lb) Tertiary crushing 450 (kJ/lb) HPGR 1,100 (kJ/lb) Ball Milling, 10,590 (kJ/lb) Flotation & regrinding 1,870 (kJ/lb) Smelting 5,150 (kJ/lb) Refining 2,700 (kJ/lb) Transport to market 120 (kJ/lb) C V C V C V C V C V C V Primary Crush, Secondary Crush, Tertiary Crush, HPGR, ball mill, flotation, smelt, refine Source: Energy efficiency and copper hydrometallurgy J.Marsden 2008 Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold
  26. 26. Energy Consumed kJ per lb of copper produced Mining 8,000 (kJ/lb)ROM Leaching 1,440 (kJ/lb) Solution Extraction 1,980 (kJ/lb) Electrowinning 3,840 (kJ/lb) Transport to market 120 (kJ/lb) Run of Mine (ROM) Leach, Electrowinning Source: Energy efficiency and copper hydrometallurgy J.Marsden 2008 Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold
  27. 27. Its all about oil, gas and coal
  28. 28. US Shale Gas ‘Fracking’ Boom 96% downgrade of Monterey shale oil reserves (2/3 of US reserves) extractable with current technology ~ 600 million barrels down from 13.7 billion barrels (Source EIA) 28
  29. 29. • Production from shale gas ‘fracked’ wells typically declines 80 to 95% in the first 36 months of operation • For US shale gas industry to maintain 2013 production rates, it needs to drill approx. 7200 new wells each year • CSG in Australia is considered less productive than US unconventional gas plays US Shale Gas ‘Fracking’ Bust • How did the EIA get these fantastic future predictions? – Take the content of the best gas ‘sweet spots’ in each fracking field – Take the highest recovery rates of the best fracking wells in each fracking field – Extend both of these to the entire volume of the fracking gas field – Sum all fields together, ignore logistical issues and process issues 29
  30. 30. Peak Gas Year 2018 Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013 CSG and shale gas has pushed Peak Gas back from approx. 2010 30
  31. 31. Peak Coal Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013 Year 2020 Peak date contingent on China selling us their coal 31
  32. 32. Supply and demand of Uranium There is probably enough U for existing nuclear power stations 32 Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013
  33. 33. Future projection of Uranium production 2014 Nuclear power would have to increase 12-13 times capacity at peak potential to make up for total energy supply to replace fossil fuels 33 Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013
  34. 34. Existing nuclear infrastructure needs replacing Someone has to pay for these new reactor sites 34
  35. 35. Storage of spent fuel rods • Spent fuel rods are very radioactive and generate a lot of heat • Need to be stored in cooled water for 10-20 years before dry storage This is the Achilles Heel of nuclear technology as a solution to our energy supply problem 35
  36. 36. Peak Oil Tar and oil sands have pushed back the peak of total oil supply back 6-7 years from approx. 2006 Conventional and unconventional oil supply Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013 Discovery & Production Year 2012 36
  37. 37. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-30/us-gasoline-consumption-plummets-nearly-75 Source: Zero Hedge, Submitted by Jeff Nielsen via BullionBullsCanada blog 2008 (GFC) U.S. “gasoline consumption” – as measured by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – has plummeted by nearly 75% 37
  38. 38. But peak oil has no influence on mining and is not our problem (right?) 38
  39. 39. Ore is shifted with diesel fuel (oil) 255 tonne load capacity 200kg (?) load capacity 1 truck = 3400 donkey loads Bingham: Would we cart 5000tph of rock for 10tph of copper (0.2% grade) without oil? Or run 66 000 donkey loads an hour….. Not without its logistical problems There comes a point when something has to give. Escondida: 1/3 of total energy consumed is in haulage of ore from pit floor to plant 39
  40. 40. Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI Ratio) 40 Current industrial based society requires and EROEI of 10:1 New conventional oil (12-18:1)
  41. 41. EROEI (The song and dance needed to get the energy) • Conventional Oil 12-18:1 • Tar Sands Oil 3:1 • Shale Oil 5:1 • Coal 50-80:1 • Conventional LNG gas 10:1 • Shale Gas 6.5:1 • Hydro Power 20-40:1 • Solar Power 2-8:1 • Wind Power 18:1 • Conventional Nuclear 5:1 including the energy cost of mining U (10:1 as quoted) Some Perspective European medieval society EROEI was Approx 1.5:1 • Biogas 1.3:1 • Bio-ethanol 1.3:1 41
  42. 42. Quantity of Energy at Application • Current oil demand is 87.4 Mb/day or 31.9Gb a year • This translates to a little under 62 GW of energy • The average coal power station outputs 650MW • The average gas power station outputs 550 MW • The average Nuclear power station outputs 850MW • The gigantic Three Gorges Dam hydro project in China outputs 18.2 GW • The new solar power stations being commissioned output 350MW • An offshore wind turbine on average outputs 3.6MW 42
  43. 43. So one year current demand for oil, could be replaced with: • 191 coal fired power stations each year for 50 years • 248 gas power stations each year for 50 years • 354 industrial scale solar power stations each year for 50 years • 146 nuclear power plants each year for 50 years • 7 Three Gorges Dams projects each year for 50 years • 34 400 off shore wind turbines each year for 50 years 43
  44. 44. World supply of fossil fuels and uranium Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013 Peak energy approx. 2017 Industrialisation in a global context will soon tip into contracting economies - the end of growth based economics 44
  45. 45. 45 Corporate culture genuinely does not know where to start to instigate a major shake-up of technology and approach; instead across the board, focus has been on short term risk aversion
  46. 46. 1900 • Cu Grades of approx. 20% • Energy EROEI of approx. 100:1 2014 • Cu Grades of approx. 0.3% (considering 0.1%) • Energy EROEI of approx. 12-18:1 46
  47. 47. Economies of Scale Has Carried the Industry Cheap abundant energy Available credit for industrial procurement 47
  48. 48. 48
  49. 49. Global Potable Water Consumption Over Time 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 Waterdraw(km3/year) Worldwater use by economic sector (km3 /year) (Shiklomanov 2000) Agriculture use Municipal use Industrial use Reservoirs Total (rounded) 49 Global water use is divided as follow: •70% Agriculture •22% Industry •8% Domestic
  50. 50. Global physical and economic water scarcity 50 Source: World Water Development Report 4. World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP), March 2012. Development of industrial sites with high potable water volume requirements will increasingly conflict with the needs of the growing population
  51. 51. The amount of fresh water supply provided by the hydrological cycle does not increase. Water everywhere on the planet is an integral part of the hydrologic cycle. Many major rivers; Colorado, Ganges, Indus, Rio Grande and Yellow are so over-tapped that they now run dry for part of the year. Freshwater wetland has shrunk by about half worldwide. 51
  52. 52. Access to Potable Water In the West, we take water for granted. Most people don’t actually think about the supply of water. Water is easy to ignore provided you can still turn on a tap and water comes out! We still have the same amount of water in our ecosystem but the supply of freshwater faces a three-pronged attack from population growth, climate change and industrialisation. As it currently stands, there’s not enough water to go around. The same mentality is within our industrial culture 52
  53. 53. 71.5 62.3 61.6 55.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 75.0 1980's 1990's 2000's AverageA*b ComminutionImpact Breakage A*b Ore has been progressively getting harder Softer Harder ~3000 Drop Weight Tests What does this mean? More power draw is required to break the rock 53
  54. 54. Target Grind Size is Decreasing 54 1 mm Target ore P80 = 150mm 10 mm Target ore P80 = 4mm
  55. 55. General form of the Energy-Size relationship An exponential increase in required power draw A decrease in plant final grind size P80 =A decrease in metal grain size = Energy,kWh/t Hukki 1962 55
  56. 56. Dynamic Interaction and Exacerbation • Power & water shortages • Decreasing grade requires more tonnes of rock extracted for the same resulting amount of target metal. – More energy is needed (diesel and electrical power draw) per unit of extracted metal – More potable water is needed per unit of extracted metal • Increasing ore hardness requires more power draw to crush and grind the ore 56
  57. 57. Dynamic Interaction and Exacerbation • Decreasing grind size due to finer mineral grains requires more power draw to crush and grind the ore – More water is needed per unit of extracted metal – Water recycling is more difficult – More disseminated finer grained rocks are usually harder to crush and grind • To remain economically viable operation scale has to double/triple in size • Metal demand is growing fast Once our society understands what is happening and why, everything will need to be re-engineered. Which will require vast amounts of metal! - QUICKLY This is where you will be needed 57
  58. 58. Energy,kWh/t Hukki 1962 Fine grained minerals are almost always associated with low grade The exponential increase in required energy as mineral grain size gets smaller is happening at a time when available quantity of energy is vastly reduced Dynamic Interaction and Exacerbation 58 M. Lardelli
  59. 59. Driven by increasing demand Production is Increasing 59
  60. 60. Economic goal posts are shifting for future deposits • Huge low grade deposits • Penalty minerals more prominently present in deposit that prevent efficient processing • Ever decreasing grind sizes (close size 10-20mm) • Operating on an economy of scale never been seen before (4MT blasted rock a day, 40% of which is ore!) • To stay economically viable, economics of scale have to be applied. Operations will double and triple in size. All of this based on the assumption that there is no energy or water shortage 60
  61. 61. Future underground block caves are going to be the size of existing open pits. Open pits of unprecedented size. 61
  62. 62. With a continuing grade of 0.5% this will require 20000Mt of Rock With a decrease of grade to 0.2% this then requires 50000Mt of Rock Copper Demand Outlook Is this sustainable? World Cu grade 0.5% 17Mt 3400Mt of RockWorld Cu grade 1.6% Eventually the cost of dealing with the wastes will exceed the value of the metal… With current estimations the demand for copper will increase to ~100Mt by 2100 62
  63. 63. Copper is a finite resource like any other Forecast Historical Global Cu production by principal geological deposit types 63
  64. 64. Conventional mining problem solving is if the numbers don’t stack up, its not viable and the project doesn’t start There is no ‘Plan B’ if higher grade easier to work deposits are unavailable 64
  65. 65. This is not a tickling competition • Raw materials supplied by mining are required for our industrial society to run. That supply must continue in some form • Engineering problem solving according to new target parameters • Knowledge of deposit ore variability needs to be matched with sophisticated flexible engineering design • Put less ore in the mill for the same metal output – Sorting technology – Unconventional exploitation of geological characteristics • Dry process • More sophisticated system based modelling of existing technology • Bacterial leach • Remove all time pressure – NPV is no longer important – Take the time to process each ore parcel at maximum efficiency 65
  66. 66. 1 - One process stream, flexible operation • Engineered ability to more easily adapt to variable feed • And to a series of dynamic conditions, that are not a steady state • More sophisticated process control capabilities to manage dynamic non steady state conditions Operation can liberate and separate most efficiently each ore parcel in a responsive manner, resulting in higher operational revenue 66
  67. 67. 2 - Multiple process streams in the same operation, each with its own stockpile Each stream with its own closing size and cutoff grade returning the same recovery with lower CAPEX/OPEX Geomet Block Model Blast Sorting Dump Leach Pad Tank Leach Flash Flotation Flotation Flotation 67
  68. 68. 3 - Flexible operation to process different size fractions in different streams • SAG mill critical particle size - 75+40mm • SAG needs coarse fragments and fines to run • HPGR needs over size to be crushed to protect it ball Mill 2 x Cone crush RoM 20 mm 5mm 2mm Pump Sump deagglomerate HPGR SAG 50 mm pebbles Variable splitter 2000 tph 1000 tph 600 tph 300 tph 1000 tph fresh 300 tph Recycle surplus pebbles Cyclone 1600 tph Each comminution unit operates at peak efficiency resulting in higher throughput Prof. Malcolm Powell 68
  69. 69. 4 - Flexible operation that uses sorting to remove waste rock throughout the whole mining system Geomet Block Model Blast Sorting Dump Leach Pad Flotation Flotation Sorting Sorting Future Ore Working Ore Waste dump Problem ore with ‘show stoppers’ Only a fraction of the ore volume goes to ball mil for same recovery resulting in lower CAPEX/OPEX 69
  70. 70. 5 - Flexible Operation to meet challenging external conditions Engineered ability to more easily adapt to changes to external circumstances • Power shortages, outages, power spikes • Potable water shortages • Fluctuating price of steel consumables • Fluctuating price of saleable metal Operation can still operate and produce revenue 70
  71. 71. Change the fundamental process flow path • All solutions presented so far are step changes to the existing conventional mining process • What is required is a fundamental rethink and restructure of the mining process from the fundamental science foundation all the way to engineering design • A radical change in business model is also required – We no longer have the time or capacity to meet desired production targets 71 So completely change the approach
  72. 72. 72
  73. 73. The engineering to do this at an industrial scale is already here 73 Solar power stations now have a capacity of the order of 350MW
  74. 74. Solar smelting of ore • Mine then crush ore to optimum size • Process through solar smelter unit in batches • Exploit difference in melting temperatures • To either extract target element directly or, • Upgrade a low grade disseminated texture into something more feasible – As molten rock cools, could it be mixed in a way to bond like with like so metal grains are larger and closer together – Easier to process texture – Rock more brittle and weakened in strength 74 Remove NPV time pressure and requirement for high throughput tonnages
  75. 75. Approximate Temperature (°C) Minerals which are molten 1200°C All molten 1000°C Olivine, pyroxene, Ca-rich plagioclase 800°C Amphibole, Ca/Na- plagioclase 600°C Quartz, K-feldspar, Na- plagioclase, micas. Metal Approximate Melting Temperature (°C) Density (g/cm3 ) Aluminum 659°C 2.70 g/cm3 Iron 1538 °C 7.86 g/cm3 Copper 1083°C 8.96 g/cm3 Gold 1063°C 19.3 g/cm3 Lead 163°C 11.34 g/cm3 Magnesium 651°C 1.738 g/cm3 Nickel 1452°C 8.908 g/cm3 Silver 951°C 10.49 g/cm3 Tungsten 3399°C 19.25 g/cm3 Zinc 419°C 7.14 g/cm3 Density 1.8-3.5g/cm3 Exploit the difference in melting temperature and density 75 ROCK ELEMENT METAL All mineral processing exploits a physical or chemical difference between the target element and its host rock
  76. 76. Mine Crush 0.6 MW2-5 MW Grind Flotation Smelt 50 MW Potable water 5 MW Potable water 20 MW 76 A job for the JKMRC ~ 1 MW? Dry process Solar Smelting
  77. 77. Decreasing Grade Sovereign Debt Default Decreasing Grind size+ Increasing Depth+ Peak Fossil Fuel + Peak Mining Credit Freeze + Structural Inflation +FIAT Currency Devaluation + Peak Finance Peak Manufacturing Peak Industrialisation = = The End of the Industrial Revolution Expansion of production needed to stay viable Expansion of money needed to service debt The Industrial Big Picture 160 years after it started 77
  78. 78. The writing on the wall • Everything we need/want to operate is drawn from non- renewable natural resources in a finite system • Most of those natural resources are depleting or will soon • Demand for everything we need/want is expanding fast • When these trends meet, there will come a point where how we do things will fundamentally change • None of these issues can be seen in isolation. 78
  79. 79. ‘Must’ expand exponentially Can’t expand Deteriorating Chris Martenson http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse The Pickle and the Rub… This is the only thing that can change 79
  80. 80. Forced Transformation Understand true implications Deterioration and Fragmentation Decay/Collapse Write- off/Reset Mounting Stress Weare here Conquest of another system Fundamental Reform Mounting Stress Existential large scale crisis Existential large scale crisis business as usual Early small scale crisis All 5 Stages of Human Grief at all scales Deterioration and Fragmentation Temporary solution loop Where we are Where we should be Inelastic oil supply 2005 Peak Total Energy 2017 With 20/20 hindsight business as usual Early small scale crisis This diagnoses a certain outcome 80
  81. 81. Systemic environmental disruption Natural raw materials unavailable for industrialisation Energy supply disrupted then unavailable • Reset all FIAT currencies – asset based • Restructure all debt • Need to grow into new system • Cannot sustain growth • Cannot grow economy system • Change to alternative energy system • Rebuild all infrastructure to meet requirements of new energy system • Cannot supply raw materials for construction or manufacture at needed rate or volume, if at all • Need to reassess what is really needed • Mine our rubbish dumps • Cannot run any existing system for very long Financial Systemic Meltdown GrowingPopulation • Puts pressure on all other sectors except finance
  82. 82. Paradigm changing information is right in front of us if we choose to see it… Everyone should try thinking for themselves at least once Now would be a good time 82
  83. 83. Thank you for your time Simon Michaux Bach App Sc. PhD simonpetermichaux@gmail.com 83
  84. 84. 84
  85. 85. Case Study 2: Mogalakwena • Mogalakwena platinum mine in South Africa hit several sustainability limits • The mining corporation in question was not doing anything unusual in mining operational parameters (no unusual site restrictions) • Operation expanded several times • Villages were sometimes moved to accommodate this • Operation was in direct competition with local population for water and power supply • Local population depended on mine operations economically • Multiple power shortages & water shortages • Mine site would occasionally crash local power grid • In this case, the conventional mining process was in direct conflict with the sustainability of local population This site put the spot light on the sustainability issue in all its forms 85
  86. 86. Peak Oil The NET peakoil curve (or "Net Hubbert Curve") is what really counts ... and given that two-thirds of all global crude oil supplies is now HEAVY SOUR (and thus much more energy intensive to refine), and only 1/3 is LIGHT SWEET crude i.e., given that most of the low- hanging fruit has already been extracted. EROEI Ratio for Oil extraction Net Hubbert Curve 86
  87. 87. Energy Density of Oil 1 litre of Petrol = 132 hours of hard labour • Put 1 litre of petrol in your car • Drive it till it runs out • Push car back to start point At $15/hour 1 litre of petrol = $1981.20 87
  88. 88. Oil producing countries past their peak Source: Ludwig-Bolkow Systemtechnik GmbH 2007 HIS 2006; PEMEX, petrobas ; NPD, DTI, ENS(Dk), NEB, RRC, US-EIA, January 2007 Forecast: LBST estimate, 25 January 2007 88
  89. 89. Production stable Number of rigs going up Has Saudi Arabia Peaked? 89

×