The State of the A/E/C Industry: PSMJ's Outlook for 2017 and Beyond

#PSMJTHRIVE
The State of the A/E/C Industry
PSMJ’s Outlook for 2017 and Beyond
1. Trends in the overall economy
2. The A/E/C industry today
3. Our outlook for the A/E/C
industry in 2017 and beyond
– Which markets will be up?
– Which will be down?
– When will the good times
end?
4. What should you do?

#PSMJTHRIVE
David Burstein. P.E.
B.S., M.S. Civil Engineering
26 years with Parsons Corporation
• Junior Engineer
• Project Engineer
• Project Manager
• Dept. Manager
• Office Manager
• Regional Manager
• U.S. Operations Manager
• President of Parsons Engineering Science, Inc.
• President of Harland Bartholomew Associates
Affiliated with PSMJ since 1979
• Part time from 1979 – 1997
• Full time since 1997
2

#PSMJTHRIVE
We’re Going to Cover a Lot of Information.
So Hold Onto Your Hat!
3

#PSMJTHRIVE
The U.S. Economy Continues
Its Steady Growth Pattern
4

#PSMJTHRIVE
Canada is Doing Even Better

#PSMJTHRIVE 6
A/E revenue continues to grow
Source: PSMJ 2017 Financial Performance Survey

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Most U.S. Industries are Consolidating
7

#PSMJTHRIVE
This was happening in the A/E industry
8
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
> $1B $250M -
$1B
$100 -
$250M
$25 -
$100M
< $25M
Growth from M&A
Internal Growth
Average Annual Revenue
Growth 2009-2014
Source: PSMJ analysis of Engineering News Record data

#PSMJTHRIVE
But Things Have Changed!
Source: ENR 500 Design Firms

#PSMJTHRIVE
Even in Design-Build
6.0%
6.5% 6.2%
6.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9%
6.5% 6.6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Percent of U.S. Construction by the Top 100 D-B Firms
10
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and “Engineering News Record”

#PSMJTHRIVE
Perhaps this is why?
12.5
10.7
9.7
15.4
12.4
19.7 19.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1-20 21-50 51-100 101-200 201-350 351 - 500 Over 500
Firm Size (Employees)
Employee Turnover (%)
11
Source: PSMJ 2017 Bonus & Benefits Survey

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Perfect Storm
12

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Total U.S. employment is
now well above pre-recession levels
13
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

#PSMJTHRIVE
Employment in the U.S. A/E Sector is finally
back to pre-recession levels
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics
14

#PSMJTHRIVE
Engineering firms are doing much better
15

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Architecture firms still haven’t recovered
16

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Construction firms are also behind
17

#PSMJTHRIVE
A Serious Labor Shortage is Forming
18
Source: Federal Reserve

#PSMJTHRIVE
It’s Getting Harder to Find Good Staff
19

#PSMJTHRIVE
Although A/E employee turnover has
been trending lower…
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
MedianAnnualTurnover
3-year Moving Average
Source: PSMJ Financial Performance Survey
20
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22% 1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

#PSMJTHRIVE
It may be increasing in the future
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
3-year Moving Average
Source: PSMJ Financial Performance Survey
21
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22% 1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

#PSMJTHRIVE
If you think you can replace…
These Guys With These Guys
22

#PSMJTHRIVE
Probability of Being Replaced
by a Robot or Computer
23
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
HR Professional Mechanical
Engineers
Architect
Managers
Architects Civil Engineers Electrical
Engineers
Average U.S.
Worker
Source: “The Future Of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerization?”
By Carl Benedikt Frey and and Michael A. Osborne, September 17, 2013

#PSMJTHRIVE
As the labor market tightens…
Higher
Wages
Lower
Availability

#PSMJTHRIVE 25
“Entry-level pay for engineers declines as
management compensation rises.”

#PSMJTHRIVE
Salaries for Most New
Grads Increased Modestly
Degree
Median Salary*
2017 Survey 2016 Survey % Change
Architect $47,500 $46,957 +1.2%
Civil $54,576 $53,460 +2.1%
Electrical $56,493 $55,067 +2.6%
Mechanical $59,000 $56,300 +4.8%
Structural $56,000 $55,755 +0.4%
Landscape Architect $47,650 $43,472 +9.6%
* Comparison of 109 firms that participated in both surveys
27

#PSMJTHRIVE
Are we attracting the best & brightest?
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
Starting Salary for BS Graduates
Median for All
Employers
Top 25% for A/E
Firms
Sources:
• 2014 Salary Survey, National Association of Colleges and Employers
• 2014 PSMJ Staff Salary Survey
28

#PSMJTHRIVE
Money is becoming
more important to new grads
29

#PSMJTHRIVE
Most firms are encouraging teleworking
35%
46%
36%
46% 46%
65%
43%
53%
47%
57% 55%
73%
25%
30%
26%
31% 32%
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percentage of Firms Paying Teleworking Costs
Computer Hardware Computer Software
Communications Expenses
30

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What Happened to CH2M?
Sellers
Buyers
Change in U.S. Labor Force from 2010-16 by Age (Millions)

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Let’s Look at Financial Performance
of the A/E Industry

#PSMJTHRIVE 33
Labor utilization dipped slightly

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Continuing the Long-Term Trend

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Group insurance costs
increased modestly (3%)

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Overhead rates are trending down

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Target DL multiplier has levelled off

#PSMJTHRIVE 38
But achieved DL multiplier dipped

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Net Revenue Deficit Increased a Bit

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Net payroll multiplier (revenue factor)
dipped a bit

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Profitability also dipped

#PSMJTHRIVE 42
…As did return on shareholders’ equity

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It took longer to invoice and collect

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Equity per staff levelled off

#PSMJTHRIVE
Our Outlook for the A/E/C Industry
45

#PSMJTHRIVE
When Planning
Your Firm’s
Strategy…
“Don’t skate to where the
puck is. Skate to where
it’s going to be.”
-- Wayne Gretzky
46

#PSMJTHRIVE
A/E Proposal Opportunities Are
the Most Leading Indicator
3-6
Months
6-12
Months
2-4
Months
A/E Firm
Proposal
Opportunities
A/E Firm
Backlog
A/E Firm
Revenues
A/E Firm
Cash
Flow
Construction
Firm
Revenues
1-2 Years
47

#PSMJTHRIVE
PSMJ’s Quarterly
Market Surveys
➢ PSMJ conducts quarterly
market surveys as a free
service to the industry.
➢ Input is restricted to A/E
firms.
➢ 200-500 people respond to
these surveys.
➢ We use this data to chart
trends using a “Plus/Minus
Index”.
PSMJ
Survey
PSMJ
Survey
PSMJ
Survey
PSMJ
Survey
48

#PSMJTHRIVE
We Look at These A/E/C Markets
49
Energy and Utilities
• Renewable energy
• Power plants
• Utility distribution
• Telecom/cable
• Pipelines
Transportation
• Roads
• Bridges
• Rail
• Airports
• Transportation planning
• Traffic
Education
• K-12 schools
• Higher education facilities
• Laboratories
• Support facilities (gyms, dorms,
libraries, etc.)
Other Government Buildings
• Justice facilities
• Public safety facilities (fire
stations, police, etc.)
• Public recreation
• Sports facilities
Housing
• Condominiums
• Multifamily housing
• Single family development
(subdivisions)
• Single family property (individual
houses)
• Senior & assisted living
(independent living)
Commercial (Developers and
Users)
• Office buildings
• Retail buildings
• Warehouse distribution
• Call centers & data facilities
• Hotels/motels
• Restaurants
Industry (Light and Heavy)
• Component assembly facilities
• Repair facilities
• Warehouse distribution facilities
• Oil drilling and mining
• Petroleum facilities
• Chemical plants
• Primary metals manufacturing
• Product manufacturing
• Pharmaceutical manufacturing
Water and Wastewater
• Water supply
• Water distribution
• Wastewater collection
• Wastewater treatment
• Wastewater reuse
• Water treatment
Environmental
• Solid waste disposal
• Waste cleanup
• Site characterization
• Resource management
• Wetlands delineation
• Environmental permitting
• Air pollution
Health Care
• Hospitals
• Continuing care facilities
• Medical offices
• Medical laboratories

#PSMJTHRIVE
How We Compute the “Plus/Minus
Index”
Sample Question: Are proposal opportunities in the transportation
sector increasing or decreasing compared to last quarter?
Sample Calculation:
Total firms reporting = 185
Firms reporting an increase = 60 firms x 1 points = +60
Firms reporting no change = 80 firms x 0 points = 0
Firms reporting a decrease = 45 firms x -1 points = -45
Total “points” = +15
Index = 15 ÷ 185 = +8%
50

#PSMJTHRIVE
A/E Proposal Opportunities
Continue Their Upward Trend
51

#PSMJTHRIVE
All regions show solid proposal activity
52
+37%
+36%
+24%
+27%
+30%
+37%
Canada: +32%
Proposal Plus/Minus Index (Q2 2017)

#PSMJTHRIVE
Is there a “Trump Effect” on our industry?
53
We’re going to bring
manufacturing jobs back
to America

#PSMJTHRIVE
Manufacturing job growth
is still sluggish…
54

#PSMJTHRIVE
But Industrial Production is Increasing
55
Trump Elected

#PSMJTHRIVE
Capital Expenditures
Are Expected to Increase

#PSMJTHRIVE
Let’s Look at A/E Proposal Activity
57

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Heavy Industry Market is Solid
58
37%
-46%
-13%
22%
55%
46%
30%
58%
1%
48%
28%
36%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Heavy Industrial Submarkets
(Before Hurricane Harvey)
Primary materials manufacturing
Petroleum facilities
Pharmaceutical manufacturing
Chemical plants
Product manufacturing (food, autos, etc.)
59

#PSMJTHRIVE
Light Industry Looks Good
60
26%
-58%
-28%
1%
24%
53%
37%
57%
41% 44% 45% 44%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Light Industrial Submarkets
Component assembly (including telecom)
Warehouse/distribution facilities
Repair/service facilities
61

#PSMJTHRIVE
62
Coal miners should get
ready to get back to work

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Changing Energy Picture
63

#PSMJTHRIVE
Will Trump bring back
coal mining jobs?

#PSMJTHRIVE
But is this a good idea?
65
777,000
50,000 80,000
Renewables Coal Mining Arby's
Number of Jobs in 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

#PSMJTHRIVE
Coal Use by 2040
66
45% U.S.
87%
Europe
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2017
(Produced after U.S. pulled out of Paris Accords)

#PSMJTHRIVE
Maybe Focus on Gas Instead?

#PSMJTHRIVE
Let’s Look at Other Energy Sources

#PSMJTHRIVE
U.S. oil production is back up
69

#PSMJTHRIVE
Low prices have cut into
natural gas production

#PSMJTHRIVE
The gas market is about
to get a major boost

#PSMJTHRIVE
Solar is becoming mainstream
72

#PSMJTHRIVE
By 2021, solar will be cheaper than coal in…
73
66%
Solar costs
by 2040

#PSMJTHRIVE 74
Solar PV and
Wind
72%
All Others
28%
NEW GLOBAL POWER GENERATION
EXPENDITURES IN 2040

#PSMJTHRIVE
Wind power is now competitive with
natural gas in many locations
75

#PSMJTHRIVE
And predicted to drop further by 2040
76
47% On-shore
71%
Off-shore

#PSMJTHRIVE
Battery production is ramping up
77

#PSMJTHRIVE
By 2040…
38%
49%
55%
74%
U.S. INDIA CHINA GERMANY
Penetration of Energy by Renewables
78

#PSMJTHRIVE
Renewables will replace coal
as the primary energy source
79
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Note: Flexible capacity includes power storage,
demand response, and other potential resources.

#PSMJTHRIVE
The U.S. Economy Has Become
Much More Energy Efficient
80
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

#PSMJTHRIVE
So we have become more independent
81

#PSMJTHRIVE
82

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Energy/Utilities Market is Solid
83
83%
27%
56% 51%
60% 66%
54% 61%
31%
71% 71%
41%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Renewables Are Red Hot
84
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Renewable Energy (wind, solar,
hydroelectric, wave)

#PSMJTHRIVE
Mining/Resource Extraction (including
oil/gas drilling) has turned positive
85
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Mining/Resource Extraction (includes oil drilling)
Trump Elected

#PSMJTHRIVE
The pipeline market has improved
86
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Pipelines
Trump Elected

#PSMJTHRIVE 87
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Utility Distribution
Utility distribution may be slipping

#PSMJTHRIVE
Power Plants are trending down
88
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Power Plants

#PSMJTHRIVE
89
We’re going to make
America’s infrastructure
great again

#PSMJTHRIVE
Infrastructure investment
is forecast to grow
91

#PSMJTHRIVE
92

#PSMJTHRIVE 93
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Roads

#PSMJTHRIVE 94
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bridges

#PSMJTHRIVE 95
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Rail

#PSMJTHRIVE 96
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Traffic

#PSMJTHRIVE 97
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Transportation Planning (includes ITS)

#PSMJTHRIVE 98
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Airports

#PSMJTHRIVE
But funding will have to change
99

#PSMJTHRIVE
Even more so in the future
100

#PSMJTHRIVE
Will P3 fill the gap?
Source: Biocentury Innovations

#PSMJTHRIVE
Water/Wastewater is Also Strong
102
63%
26%
44% 40% 35%
54%
32%
60%
52% 48%
54%
62%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Climate Change Will Create New Demand
103

#PSMJTHRIVE
104
We’re going to roll back all
the Obama environmental
regulations

#PSMJTHRIVE
106

#PSMJTHRIVE
Environmental Markets Are Still Strong
107
53%
18%
34% 28% 33%
18%
36%
63%
38%
30% 28%
48%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Environmental submarkets are all up
Waste disposal (landfills, etc.)
Wetlands delineation
Site characterization
Site cleanup
Environmental permitting
Resource management
Air pollution
108

#PSMJTHRIVE
And if you’re into designing walls…

#PSMJTHRIVE
When will the good times end?
The current
cycle is 96
months
110

#PSMJTHRIVE
Recessions are caused by…
Whoppers
111
Normal Recessions

#PSMJTHRIVE
I’m not too worried about debt (yet)
112

#PSMJTHRIVE
Housing activity is a great indicator
113

#PSMJTHRIVE
Signs of Trouble Started in 2005-06
114
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Year End
2003
Year End
2004
Year End
2005
Year End
2006
Year End
2007
QTR 1 QTR 2
Housing Plus/Minus Trends

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Housing Market is Still Strong
115
-50%
-80%
-15%
11%
0%
20%
55%
70%
53% 57%
47% 48%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
An Important Bell Weather
116
Housing
Commercial
Users
Commercial
Developers
Transportation
Water &
Wastewater
Education
Energy &
Utilities
Government
Buildings

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Subdivision Market is Still Strong
117
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Single Family Development (Subdivisions)

#PSMJTHRIVE
Other Housing Submarkets
Condominiums
Multi-family housing (apartments)
Single family homes
Senior and assisted living
118

#PSMJTHRIVE
Hot and Cold New Home Markets
119
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, June 2017

#PSMJTHRIVE
What a Difference Since 2008!

#PSMJTHRIVE
I’m a bit worried about Canada
121

#PSMJTHRIVE
Let’s Look at Other Market
Sectors
122

#PSMJTHRIVE
Commercial Developers Are Strong
123
8%
-81%
-37%
6%
17%
24%
44%
57%
45% 48% 45% 44%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Commercial Users are Also Strong
124
19%
-76%
-36%
12%
19%
33%
48% 52% 49% 44%
56%
44%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Healthcare Market Remains Strong
125
67%
19%
30%
43% 48%
28% 32%
60% 56%
45% 52% 49%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
The Education Market is Growing
126
42%
-4% 2% -1% -7% -2%
29%
36%
43%
50% 55%
40%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Other Government Buildings
Have Recovered
127
26%
-10%
15%
-6%
-27% -26%
0% 5%
15%
33%
23% 30%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

All sectors have a positive plus/minus index
Housing
Commercial Users
Commercial Developers
Light Industrial
Heavy Industrial
Energy & Utilities
Water/Wastewater
Environmental
Education
Transportation
Other Gov’t. Buildings
Health Care
0-20-40-60-80 +20 +40 +60 +80 +100-100
Legend:
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
0-20-40-60-80 +20 +40 +60 +80 +100-100
128

#PSMJTHRIVE
Market Sector
Profitability vs. A/E Industry Median
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Transportation -1.4% -2.2% -3.9% -1.5% -0.8% -1.3% -2.8%
Government Buildings +12.5% +6.5% +2.3% +2.3% -2.2% +0.1% +2.6%
Water/Wastewater +0.8% -2.3% +0.1% -1.6% +4.8% +1.9% +4.6%
Industrial -0.6% +4.9% +4.3% +0.6% +1.5% +14.0% +5.1%
Energy-Utilities -0.6% -2.5% -2.4% +3.7% +5.3% +10.5% -1.4%
Commercial (Users) -0.1% +7.9% +5.9% -7.6% 0% +3.4% -0.6%
Commercial
(Developers)
+8.2% +8.2% +9.1% +20.6% -5.8% +6.1% NR
Housing +8.4% +12.6% -1.5% +6.2% +11.3% -3.7% -10.1%
Healthcare -1.4% -4.2% -4.1% -4.5% +2.3% +3.0% 0%
No Specialty -1.1% -1.3% 0% -0.5% -0.9% -0.6% -1.1%

#PSMJTHRIVE
Our Latest Prioritization
Markets
Short-Term
Prospects
(-2 to +2)
Long-Term
Prospects
(-2 to +2)
Relative
Profitability
(-2 to +2)
Total Points
(-6 to +6)
Housing +2.0 +2.0 +2.0 +6.0
Govt. Buildings +1.5 +1.5 +2.0 +5.0
Commercial +1.5 +1.5 +1.5 +4.5
Water/Wastewater +2.0 +1.5 +1.0 +4.5
Education +1.5 +1.5 - +3.0
Industrial +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +3.0
Transportation +1.5 +2.0 -1.0 +2.5
Health Care +1.5 +1.5 -1.0 +2.0
Environmental +1.5 - - +1.5
Energy/Utilities +1.0 +0.5 -0.5 +1.0

#PSMJTHRIVE
So What Should Our Firm Do?
What should I do
with all this information?
131

#PSMJTHRIVE
Our Recommendations
• Track PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Trends
• Listen to Wayne Gretzky’s advice.
• Prepare for the worsening labor shortage.
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#PSMJTHRIVE
Please participate in PSMJ’s surveys
Survey Timing Benefits
Quarterly Market Survey • December
• March
• June
• September
• Free quarterly market
report
Management & Staff
Compensation
January-February 2018 • Free compensation
benchmarking tools
• 40% off each survey
Financial Performance January – April 2018 • Free financial performance
benchmarking tools
• 40% off each survey
Go to the PSMJ booth to sign up or send an email to Jill Stoodley, PSMJ’s Survey
Director, at jstoodley@psmj.com.

#PSMJTHRIVE
New from PSMJ
A/E/C Project
Management Association*
Project Management
E-learning Modules*
Aptitude Test for Potential
Project Managers**
• Created by task force of
12 well-respected firms
• PM certification
• Access to great content
• Participation in on-line
forums
• Charter memberships
still available
• 20 modules
• From proposal to close-
out
• Take PM Bootcamp
without travelling
• Refreshers for past PM
Bootcamp attendees
• Uses well respected
Harrison Assessment
• Predicts the probability
of success as a PM
• Use when considering
promotions or new
hires
* See the PSMJ booth for more information
** See the Harrison Assessments booth for more information

#PSMJTHRIVE
Questions or Comments???
David Burstein. P.E.
dburstein@psmj.com
770.723.9651135

The State of the A/E/C Industry: PSMJ's Outlook for 2017 and Beyond

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