This is an exercise in the practical application of data analyses. The Practical application of data Analyses includes having a common thread throughout the story and implementing useful and valuable insights from the analyses, solving a problem.
2. ABSTRACT, BACKGROUND
• The Issue
• Did increased foreclosures contribute to the recession? or
• Were foreclosures merely a side effect of declining house prices and rising
unemployment rates?
• Put another way, did increased foreclosures shock the system and
substantially Worsened the economy?
• Answer; Yes, foreclosures shocked the economy and substantially
made the economy worse
3. HOW THE RESEARCH WAS
CONDUCTED
• Four State Level Variables
1. Unemployment Rates
2. Fraction of Existing Mortgages that Become New Foreclosures
3. The Change in Housing Prices
4. Effective Mortgage Rates
• Regression Analysis
• Adjusted R-Squared Method
4. THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH
• Foreclosures had a Statistically Significant Negative Effect on the
Economy
• Foreclosures Shocked the Economy
• Higher Unemployment
• Declining Housing Prices
• Increased Foreclosures
• Death Spiral was in Effect
• If Left Alone, the Problem will only Get Worse
• A solution is needed
5. THE USEFUL AND VALUABLE
INSIGHTS
• Make Policy Changes
• Home Affordable Modification Program
• Give Homeowners a Way to Save their Homes
• Refinance with lower payments
• Lower the Mortgage Rates
• Encourage Home Purchases
• Inspire Confidence in the Economy
6. CONCLUSION
• Shocks to Business Cycles might have Long-Term Effects
• Research, Data Analyses, Business Experience, and Common
Sense are Needed to Implement Sustainable Solutions to Problems
• Increased Foreclosures Compounded the Economic Crisis
• Results Driven Data Analyses Lead to Actionable and Valuable
Insights (e.g. policy changes and economic stimulus)
7. THANK YOU.
QUESTIONS?
Economics Letters 134 (2015) 90-93
“Estimating the Causal Relationship between Foreclosures and
Unemployment during the Great Recession”
Authors
Ghulam Awais Rana, Paul Shea
ARTICLE USED