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THE GREAT RECESSION OF 2008
AND FORECLOSURES
Flavio Mota
ABSTRACT, BACKGROUND
• The Issue
• Did increased foreclosures contribute to the recession? or
• Were foreclosures merely a side effect of declining house prices and rising
unemployment rates?
• Put another way, did increased foreclosures shock the system and
substantially Worsened the economy?
• Answer; Yes, foreclosures shocked the economy and substantially
made the economy worse
HOW THE RESEARCH WAS
CONDUCTED
• Four State Level Variables
1. Unemployment Rates
2. Fraction of Existing Mortgages that Become New Foreclosures
3. The Change in Housing Prices
4. Effective Mortgage Rates
• Regression Analysis
• Adjusted R-Squared Method
THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH
• Foreclosures had a Statistically Significant Negative Effect on the
Economy
• Foreclosures Shocked the Economy
• Higher Unemployment
• Declining Housing Prices
• Increased Foreclosures
• Death Spiral was in Effect
• If Left Alone, the Problem will only Get Worse
• A solution is needed
THE USEFUL AND VALUABLE
INSIGHTS
• Make Policy Changes
• Home Affordable Modification Program
• Give Homeowners a Way to Save their Homes
• Refinance with lower payments
• Lower the Mortgage Rates
• Encourage Home Purchases
• Inspire Confidence in the Economy
CONCLUSION
• Shocks to Business Cycles might have Long-Term Effects
• Research, Data Analyses, Business Experience, and Common
Sense are Needed to Implement Sustainable Solutions to Problems
• Increased Foreclosures Compounded the Economic Crisis
• Results Driven Data Analyses Lead to Actionable and Valuable
Insights (e.g. policy changes and economic stimulus)
THANK YOU.
QUESTIONS?
Economics Letters 134 (2015) 90-93
“Estimating the Causal Relationship between Foreclosures and
Unemployment during the Great Recession”
Authors
Ghulam Awais Rana, Paul Shea
ARTICLE USED

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Storytelling with the Data.... Got Data?

  • 1. THE GREAT RECESSION OF 2008 AND FORECLOSURES Flavio Mota
  • 2. ABSTRACT, BACKGROUND • The Issue • Did increased foreclosures contribute to the recession? or • Were foreclosures merely a side effect of declining house prices and rising unemployment rates? • Put another way, did increased foreclosures shock the system and substantially Worsened the economy? • Answer; Yes, foreclosures shocked the economy and substantially made the economy worse
  • 3. HOW THE RESEARCH WAS CONDUCTED • Four State Level Variables 1. Unemployment Rates 2. Fraction of Existing Mortgages that Become New Foreclosures 3. The Change in Housing Prices 4. Effective Mortgage Rates • Regression Analysis • Adjusted R-Squared Method
  • 4. THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH • Foreclosures had a Statistically Significant Negative Effect on the Economy • Foreclosures Shocked the Economy • Higher Unemployment • Declining Housing Prices • Increased Foreclosures • Death Spiral was in Effect • If Left Alone, the Problem will only Get Worse • A solution is needed
  • 5. THE USEFUL AND VALUABLE INSIGHTS • Make Policy Changes • Home Affordable Modification Program • Give Homeowners a Way to Save their Homes • Refinance with lower payments • Lower the Mortgage Rates • Encourage Home Purchases • Inspire Confidence in the Economy
  • 6. CONCLUSION • Shocks to Business Cycles might have Long-Term Effects • Research, Data Analyses, Business Experience, and Common Sense are Needed to Implement Sustainable Solutions to Problems • Increased Foreclosures Compounded the Economic Crisis • Results Driven Data Analyses Lead to Actionable and Valuable Insights (e.g. policy changes and economic stimulus)
  • 7. THANK YOU. QUESTIONS? Economics Letters 134 (2015) 90-93 “Estimating the Causal Relationship between Foreclosures and Unemployment during the Great Recession” Authors Ghulam Awais Rana, Paul Shea ARTICLE USED