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Happy...butHappy...butHappy...butHappy...but
(1)
Credit Crunch
Tracking
September 2010
Happy...butHappy...butHappy...butHappy...but
Anxious ForAnxious ForAnxious ForAnxious For
IrelandIrelandIrelandIreland
It’s not as bad as we anticipated, with less
personal impact over the past year than
originally feared.
High maintenance or improvement in
Caution remains among happy
consumers
(2)
High maintenance or improvement in
quality of life, happiness & in energy and
motivation.
However, caution over Irish economy
means we are holding our breath to see
what happens, & also our pulse strings.
The Recession
is not as bad as
we expected.
Actual personal
(3)
Actual personal
impact overall
is lower than
was expected a
year ago.
30
46High impact (8-10)
Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact -
Overall
Oct
‘09
%
Expected
Sept
‘10
%
Actual
-16%
(4)
Limited Impact (1-3)
Average 7.0
Some Impact (4-7) 44
We feared
the worst
but it hasn’t
happened.
5.9
49
+5%
21
10
46
43
49 49
55
45 44
49
51
43
34 34
18-34
%
35-44
%
45-64
%
AGE
65+
%
Any
%
None
%
CHILDREN
Male
%
Female
%
GENDER
ABC1
%
C2DE
%
SOCIAL
CLASS
Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact
– Net High Impact (8-10)
TOTAL
%
Actual
Sept
‘10
Expected
Oct
‘10
(5)
3030
27
33 32
30
33
19
24
34 34
27
The greatest gap between expected & actual impact is seen in the 35-44
year old age category. This age cohort were very pessimistic but they
appear to have been impacted the same degree as the average.
This trend of
perception
being worse
than reality
(6)
than reality
carries forward
to monthly
spending, way
of life and job
security also.
43
31
38
23
Monthly Spending Your Way Of Life
High impact (8-10)
Oct
‘09
%
Oct
‘09
%
Expected & Actual Impact of Recession on….
Sept
‘10
%
Sept
‘10
%
Expected
Impact
Actual
Impact
-12% -15%
(7)
Average 6.7 6.4
Limited Impact (1-3)
Some Impact (4-7) 41 45
5.5
51
5.8
46 +5% +6%
Our spending
and way of
life haven’t
been
impacted as
we expected.
16
15
21
25
Full-time Workers Part-time Workers
Job Security wasn’t as shaky as expected…
31
21
46
35High impact (8-10)
Oct
‘09
%
Oct
‘09
%
Sept
‘10
%
Sept
‘10
%
Expected
Impact
Actual
Impact
-10% -11%
(8)
Average 5.6 6.5
Limited Impact (1-3)
Some Impact (4-7) 40 34
5.7
33
4.4
33 -7% -1%
Lower impact
on job security
than expected
for both full
and part-time
workers
19
3026
45
Even in this
time of
Recession we
are generally
happy.
(9)
happy.
For some
happiness has
even
increased!
2717
22 23Better
Change Compared To Same Time Last Year in ....
Quality
of Life
%
Your
Happiness
%
Your Energy
for Life
%
Your
Motivation
%
(10)
23 13 16 18
Worse
The Same 60 65 61 54
77%
87% 84%
82%
Only 1 in 4 claim their quality of life has failed since the same time last
year and for 6 out of 7 their happiness has maintained or increased.
% Better/Same as same
time last year
Quality of Life
Your
Happiness
Your Energy
Life
Your
Motivation
Total 77 87 84 82
Gender
Male 78 86 84 83
Change Compared To Same Time Last Year
Analysed by key demographics
(11)
Male 78 86 84 83
Female 77 88 83 80
Age
18-34 82 89 88 86
35-44 69 87 89 79
45-64 73 82 77 79
65+ 86 90 80 78
Social Class
ABC1 80 88 86 85
C2DE 76 86 82 78
Middle ages have seen greater impact on Quality Of Life, while the
Energy For Life of pre-retireds is lower than average
Dubliners and
those in urban
areas have seen
most
(12)
most
improvement in
quality of life,
happiness,
motivation &
energy for life
19
17
UrbanAREA
Levels rating better than last year on....
TOTAL
23
22
26
23
30
27
Quality
of Life
%
Your
Happiness
%
Your Energy
for Life
%
Your
Motivation
%
(13)
13
11
17
25
13
UrbanAREA
Rural
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Dublin
Rest of
Leinster
REGION
19
20
22
26
20
20
19
26
27
19
22
25
26
33
23
Dubliners & those in urban areas see greatest
improvement across all measures
Although it may
not have been as
bad as we
expected so far,
(14)
expected so far,
consumers are
still holding their
breaths
9 7
18
21 23
17
1 1
2
1 2
2
Much better (5)
Stay the same (3)
Slightly better (4)
12 11 18
How do you expect the Irish economy to
fare in the next 6 months?
May
‘09
%
July
‘09
%
Oct
‘09
%
26
Feb
‘10
%
May
‘10
%
26
The outlook is more
bleak than previous
2010 waves, and
closely matches the
view at same period
last year.
Sept
‘10
%
22
(15)
38 39 32
35 29 29
40 41
29 17
21 30
Much worse (1)
Average
Slightly worse (2)
1.92 1.88 2.32
NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 19 38
2.54
48
2.57
51
Almost 1 in 3 expect
the Irish economy to
fare much worse over
the next 6 months.
But 1 in 5 expect the
economy to improve
over the next 6 months.
2.32
41
Once again,
higher
expectations
seen among the
youth.
(16)
youth.
However,
positivity
declines with
age.
Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now
% Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5)
41 40 41
48
42
45
39
46
18-34
%
35-44
%
45-64
%
AGE
65+
%
Any
%
None
%
CHILDREN
Male
%
Female
%
GENDER
ABC1
%
C2DE
%
SOCIAL
CLASS
TOTAL
%
(17)
40 41
37
32
39
37
Change
since
Feb ‘10
-10% -12% -8% -8% -3% -10% -21% -5% -13% -6% -11%
Positivity for the Irish Economy declines with age
The less
positive outlook
for Ireland is
not replicated
(18)
not replicated
for the world
economy, with
no change
since May.
31 31
44
53
43 41
3 2
5
5
6 5
Much better (5)
Slightly better (4)
How do you expect the World economy to fare in
the next 6 months?
May
‘09
%
July
‘09
%
Oct
‘09
%
Feb
‘10
%
May
‘10
%
Expectations for the
World economy have
maintained as in May.
Almost 1 in 3 believe
Sept
‘10
%
(19)
33 34
21 17 21 21
15 11
8
5
8 8
Much worse (1)
Average
Stay the same (3)
Slightly worse (2)
NET Same/Better (3-5)
2.72
16
2.77
18
3.18
19
50 51 68
3.36
20
78
3.17
22
71
Almost 1 in 3 believe
the World economy will
fare worse in the next 6
months.
But just under half still
expect the World
economy to improve.
3.13
25
71
Stability
expected for job
market...
(20)
.. but some
foresee a
worsening
house market.
15 15 15
7 7
12 12 14 13
2 2 2
2 1 2 2
11 12 15
11
2 2
2
Much better (5)
The Housing Market 6 months
from now?
Job security 6 months from
now?
Stay the same (3)
Slightly better (4)
20 1123 1426 2036 27
May
‘09
%
July
‘09
%
Oct
‘09
%
Feb
‘10
%
May
‘09
%
July
‘09
%
Oct
‘09
%
Feb
‘10
%
How do you expect the Housing and Job markets
to fare in the next 6 months?
May
‘10
%
May
‘10
%
38 27
Sept
‘10
%
32
Sept
‘10
%
31
(21)
44 40 37
35 32 37
37 38 36
39 36 34
21 22 19 13 13 14 42 40
28 21 21 21Much worse (1)
Average 2.29
Slightly worse (2)
1.852.32 1.892.43 2.24
NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 1937 2243 34
2.59
53
2.34
40
2.60
55
2.39
42
2.55
49
2.40
45
More positive spend
patterns than May..
... but still remaining
(22)
... but still remaining
extremely cautious
19 18 17 19 16 16 15
13
15
10
13
4 6
4
6 5
7 6
7 3 4
4
5
3 5
3
4
Already increased
Entertainment
such as going out,
eating, drinking or
socialising
Grocery
spend
Consumer goods
and services – e.g.
hairdresser,
clothes, mobile
phone, gaming etc.
Holidays
and short
breaks
Likely to increase
in next 6 months
Oct
‘09
%
Feb
‘10
%
Oct
‘09
%
Feb
‘10
%
Oct
‘09
%
Feb
‘10
%
Oct
‘09
%
Feb
‘10
%
Likelihood to increase spend in...
May
‘10
%
May
‘10
%
May
‘10
%
May
‘10
%
Sept
‘10
%
Sept
‘10
%
Sept
‘10
%
Sept
‘10
%
(23)
63 64
73
65 63 67 70 66 68 65
74
67 62 64
71 66
13 12 11 12 11 8 10 9 12 13 13 12
20 16 14 17
19 18
12
17 19
16 12 17 16 16
9 15
15
10
136 4
Not likely to increase
Likely to increase
in next 6 months
Likely to increase
in next 12 months
After a dip in May a return to positivity seen in February.
However, 2 in 3 still holding tightly on purse strings
% Likely to increase
spend in next 12 months
Entertainment
Grocery
Spend
Consumer
Goods/
Services
Holidays/
Shorter Breaks
Total 29 26 27 30
Gender
But, younger age groups and higher social
classes are most likely to increase spend again...
(24)
Gender
Male 29 24 26 29
Female 29 28 27 30
Age
18-34 42 34 38 37
35-44 29 27 24 28
45-64 20 20 20 22
65+ 15 13 17 24
Social Class
ABC1 33 26 28 33
C2DE 28 28 29 28
Summary...
• It is not as bad as we anticipated, with
less personal impact over the past year
than originally feared.
• We feared the worst, but it hasn’t
happened for most of us. However, 3 in
10 have still had a high personal
Recession impact.
(25)
Recession impact.
• There is high maintenance or
improvement in quality of life, happiness,
in energy for life and motivation.
• Demographically younger and older age
groups claim higher levels of
maintenance or improvement of quality of
life.
Summary...
• Regionally, Dubliners and those in
Urban areas have seen greatest
improvement in quality of life,
happiness, energy and motivation.
• Despite the past, consumers are still
holding their breaths, as they expect
the Irish Economy to worsen.
(26)
the Irish Economy to worsen.
• This wave shows more positive spend
patterns than May, but 2 in 3 still hold
tightly on the purse strings and will not
increase spend in the next 12 months
• Stability is expected in the job market
but Irish consumers foresee a slightly
worsening housing market.
Methodology – RED Express
• 1,000 telephone interviews (CATI)
using a random digital sample to
ensure coverage of all households,
including ex-directory.
• Quotas were set and data weighted to
(27)
• Quotas were set and data weighted to
ensure a national representative
sample of the population aged 18+
years.
• This is the 9th wave of the credit
crunch tracking – fieldwork was
conducted 6th-8th September 2010.

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RED C Credit Crunch Tracking - Sept 2010

  • 2. It’s not as bad as we anticipated, with less personal impact over the past year than originally feared. High maintenance or improvement in Caution remains among happy consumers (2) High maintenance or improvement in quality of life, happiness & in energy and motivation. However, caution over Irish economy means we are holding our breath to see what happens, & also our pulse strings.
  • 3. The Recession is not as bad as we expected. Actual personal (3) Actual personal impact overall is lower than was expected a year ago.
  • 4. 30 46High impact (8-10) Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact - Overall Oct ‘09 % Expected Sept ‘10 % Actual -16% (4) Limited Impact (1-3) Average 7.0 Some Impact (4-7) 44 We feared the worst but it hasn’t happened. 5.9 49 +5% 21 10
  • 5. 46 43 49 49 55 45 44 49 51 43 34 34 18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact – Net High Impact (8-10) TOTAL % Actual Sept ‘10 Expected Oct ‘10 (5) 3030 27 33 32 30 33 19 24 34 34 27 The greatest gap between expected & actual impact is seen in the 35-44 year old age category. This age cohort were very pessimistic but they appear to have been impacted the same degree as the average.
  • 6. This trend of perception being worse than reality (6) than reality carries forward to monthly spending, way of life and job security also.
  • 7. 43 31 38 23 Monthly Spending Your Way Of Life High impact (8-10) Oct ‘09 % Oct ‘09 % Expected & Actual Impact of Recession on…. Sept ‘10 % Sept ‘10 % Expected Impact Actual Impact -12% -15% (7) Average 6.7 6.4 Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 41 45 5.5 51 5.8 46 +5% +6% Our spending and way of life haven’t been impacted as we expected. 16 15 21 25
  • 8. Full-time Workers Part-time Workers Job Security wasn’t as shaky as expected… 31 21 46 35High impact (8-10) Oct ‘09 % Oct ‘09 % Sept ‘10 % Sept ‘10 % Expected Impact Actual Impact -10% -11% (8) Average 5.6 6.5 Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 40 34 5.7 33 4.4 33 -7% -1% Lower impact on job security than expected for both full and part-time workers 19 3026 45
  • 9. Even in this time of Recession we are generally happy. (9) happy. For some happiness has even increased!
  • 10. 2717 22 23Better Change Compared To Same Time Last Year in .... Quality of Life % Your Happiness % Your Energy for Life % Your Motivation % (10) 23 13 16 18 Worse The Same 60 65 61 54 77% 87% 84% 82% Only 1 in 4 claim their quality of life has failed since the same time last year and for 6 out of 7 their happiness has maintained or increased.
  • 11. % Better/Same as same time last year Quality of Life Your Happiness Your Energy Life Your Motivation Total 77 87 84 82 Gender Male 78 86 84 83 Change Compared To Same Time Last Year Analysed by key demographics (11) Male 78 86 84 83 Female 77 88 83 80 Age 18-34 82 89 88 86 35-44 69 87 89 79 45-64 73 82 77 79 65+ 86 90 80 78 Social Class ABC1 80 88 86 85 C2DE 76 86 82 78 Middle ages have seen greater impact on Quality Of Life, while the Energy For Life of pre-retireds is lower than average
  • 12. Dubliners and those in urban areas have seen most (12) most improvement in quality of life, happiness, motivation & energy for life
  • 13. 19 17 UrbanAREA Levels rating better than last year on.... TOTAL 23 22 26 23 30 27 Quality of Life % Your Happiness % Your Energy for Life % Your Motivation % (13) 13 11 17 25 13 UrbanAREA Rural Munster Conn/Ulster Dublin Rest of Leinster REGION 19 20 22 26 20 20 19 26 27 19 22 25 26 33 23 Dubliners & those in urban areas see greatest improvement across all measures
  • 14. Although it may not have been as bad as we expected so far, (14) expected so far, consumers are still holding their breaths
  • 15. 9 7 18 21 23 17 1 1 2 1 2 2 Much better (5) Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) 12 11 18 How do you expect the Irish economy to fare in the next 6 months? May ‘09 % July ‘09 % Oct ‘09 % 26 Feb ‘10 % May ‘10 % 26 The outlook is more bleak than previous 2010 waves, and closely matches the view at same period last year. Sept ‘10 % 22 (15) 38 39 32 35 29 29 40 41 29 17 21 30 Much worse (1) Average Slightly worse (2) 1.92 1.88 2.32 NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 19 38 2.54 48 2.57 51 Almost 1 in 3 expect the Irish economy to fare much worse over the next 6 months. But 1 in 5 expect the economy to improve over the next 6 months. 2.32 41
  • 16. Once again, higher expectations seen among the youth. (16) youth. However, positivity declines with age.
  • 17. Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5) 41 40 41 48 42 45 39 46 18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS TOTAL % (17) 40 41 37 32 39 37 Change since Feb ‘10 -10% -12% -8% -8% -3% -10% -21% -5% -13% -6% -11% Positivity for the Irish Economy declines with age
  • 18. The less positive outlook for Ireland is not replicated (18) not replicated for the world economy, with no change since May.
  • 19. 31 31 44 53 43 41 3 2 5 5 6 5 Much better (5) Slightly better (4) How do you expect the World economy to fare in the next 6 months? May ‘09 % July ‘09 % Oct ‘09 % Feb ‘10 % May ‘10 % Expectations for the World economy have maintained as in May. Almost 1 in 3 believe Sept ‘10 % (19) 33 34 21 17 21 21 15 11 8 5 8 8 Much worse (1) Average Stay the same (3) Slightly worse (2) NET Same/Better (3-5) 2.72 16 2.77 18 3.18 19 50 51 68 3.36 20 78 3.17 22 71 Almost 1 in 3 believe the World economy will fare worse in the next 6 months. But just under half still expect the World economy to improve. 3.13 25 71
  • 20. Stability expected for job market... (20) .. but some foresee a worsening house market.
  • 21. 15 15 15 7 7 12 12 14 13 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 11 12 15 11 2 2 2 Much better (5) The Housing Market 6 months from now? Job security 6 months from now? Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) 20 1123 1426 2036 27 May ‘09 % July ‘09 % Oct ‘09 % Feb ‘10 % May ‘09 % July ‘09 % Oct ‘09 % Feb ‘10 % How do you expect the Housing and Job markets to fare in the next 6 months? May ‘10 % May ‘10 % 38 27 Sept ‘10 % 32 Sept ‘10 % 31 (21) 44 40 37 35 32 37 37 38 36 39 36 34 21 22 19 13 13 14 42 40 28 21 21 21Much worse (1) Average 2.29 Slightly worse (2) 1.852.32 1.892.43 2.24 NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 1937 2243 34 2.59 53 2.34 40 2.60 55 2.39 42 2.55 49 2.40 45
  • 22. More positive spend patterns than May.. ... but still remaining (22) ... but still remaining extremely cautious
  • 23. 19 18 17 19 16 16 15 13 15 10 13 4 6 4 6 5 7 6 7 3 4 4 5 3 5 3 4 Already increased Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or socialising Grocery spend Consumer goods and services – e.g. hairdresser, clothes, mobile phone, gaming etc. Holidays and short breaks Likely to increase in next 6 months Oct ‘09 % Feb ‘10 % Oct ‘09 % Feb ‘10 % Oct ‘09 % Feb ‘10 % Oct ‘09 % Feb ‘10 % Likelihood to increase spend in... May ‘10 % May ‘10 % May ‘10 % May ‘10 % Sept ‘10 % Sept ‘10 % Sept ‘10 % Sept ‘10 % (23) 63 64 73 65 63 67 70 66 68 65 74 67 62 64 71 66 13 12 11 12 11 8 10 9 12 13 13 12 20 16 14 17 19 18 12 17 19 16 12 17 16 16 9 15 15 10 136 4 Not likely to increase Likely to increase in next 6 months Likely to increase in next 12 months After a dip in May a return to positivity seen in February. However, 2 in 3 still holding tightly on purse strings
  • 24. % Likely to increase spend in next 12 months Entertainment Grocery Spend Consumer Goods/ Services Holidays/ Shorter Breaks Total 29 26 27 30 Gender But, younger age groups and higher social classes are most likely to increase spend again... (24) Gender Male 29 24 26 29 Female 29 28 27 30 Age 18-34 42 34 38 37 35-44 29 27 24 28 45-64 20 20 20 22 65+ 15 13 17 24 Social Class ABC1 33 26 28 33 C2DE 28 28 29 28
  • 25. Summary... • It is not as bad as we anticipated, with less personal impact over the past year than originally feared. • We feared the worst, but it hasn’t happened for most of us. However, 3 in 10 have still had a high personal Recession impact. (25) Recession impact. • There is high maintenance or improvement in quality of life, happiness, in energy for life and motivation. • Demographically younger and older age groups claim higher levels of maintenance or improvement of quality of life.
  • 26. Summary... • Regionally, Dubliners and those in Urban areas have seen greatest improvement in quality of life, happiness, energy and motivation. • Despite the past, consumers are still holding their breaths, as they expect the Irish Economy to worsen. (26) the Irish Economy to worsen. • This wave shows more positive spend patterns than May, but 2 in 3 still hold tightly on the purse strings and will not increase spend in the next 12 months • Stability is expected in the job market but Irish consumers foresee a slightly worsening housing market.
  • 27. Methodology – RED Express • 1,000 telephone interviews (CATI) using a random digital sample to ensure coverage of all households, including ex-directory. • Quotas were set and data weighted to (27) • Quotas were set and data weighted to ensure a national representative sample of the population aged 18+ years. • This is the 9th wave of the credit crunch tracking – fieldwork was conducted 6th-8th September 2010.