Business forward 130708v1

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Business forward 130708v1

  1. 1. DRAFT 00Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist0 The Labor Market Situation July 8, 2013 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist US Department of Labor Office of the Chief Economist
  2. 2. DRAFT 11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1 Steady job growth since February 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program Over-the-month change, in thousands • June: 202 • May: 207 • April: 188 12-month change, in thousands • June 2012 to June 2013: 2,357
  3. 3. DRAFT 22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2 Steady unemployment decline since end 2009
  4. 4. DRAFT 33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3 Leisure & Hospitality led job growth this month
  5. 5. DRAFT 44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4 Since the end of the recession, many industries have not recovered their employment losses
  6. 6. DRAFT 55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5 Long-term unemployed share falling
  7. 7. DRAFT 66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6 Labor force participation has been falling, even among adults age 25 to 54
  8. 8. DRAFT 77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7 Problem is not layoffs, but low hiring rate
  9. 9. DRAFT 88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8 Ratio of unemployed to job openings has fallen, but remains above pre-recession levels
  10. 10. DRAFT 99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9 We are experiencing an “L” shaped recovery; CBO estimates we won’t return to potential until 2018
  11. 11. DRAFT 1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10 Graduation rates have continued to increase Source: Murnane, Richard J. “U.S. High School Graduation Rates: Patterns and Explanations” NBER Working Paper 18701. January 2013 Graduation rates by birth year
  12. 12. DRAFT 1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11 Student test scores are rising Source: Murnane, Richard J. “U.S. High School Graduation Rates: Patterns and Explanations” NBER Working Paper 18701. January 2013 NAEP Long-Term Trend Scores for 13-Year-Olds Scoring in the 25th Percentile in Mathematics and Reading for White, Hispanic, and Black Students
  13. 13. DRAFT 1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12 Thank you!

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