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Special report-20-august-epic-research-2018
1. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
Global markets at a glance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 110.59 points, or
0.43 percent, to 25,669.32, the S&P 500 gained 9.44 points,
or 0.33 percent, to 2,850.13 and the Nasdaq Composite
added 9.81 points, or 0.13 percent, to 7,816.33.
US stocks closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and
the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending gains and the
Nasdaq turning positive on reports of progress in tariff dis-
putes between the United States and its trading partners
China and Mexico.
Chinese and US negotiators are planning talks to resolve
their trade row ahead of meetings in November, the Wall
Street Journal reported on Friday. Additionally, Mexico’s
economy minister, Ildefonso Guajardo, said he hopes to
wrap up outstanding bilateral issues on the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by the middle of next week.
“The threat of a trade war threatens economic activity,”
said Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush
Securities in San Francisco. “The fact that the administra-
tion might resolve (trade disputes) sooner rather than lat-
er, without a sustained time frame of slower economic ac-
tively due to tariffs, that bodes well for the market.”Asian
share markets crept cautiously higher on Monday as inves-
tors awaited developments on proposed Sino-US trade
talks and the Chinese yuan rallied away from dangerous
lows. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside
Japan gained 0.4 percent, while Shanghai blue chips firmed
0.2 percent.
The Nifty50 after opening sharply higher above psychologi-
cal 11,400-mark extended rally to move near its intraday
record high and finally ended at record closing high on Fri-
day, driven by broadbased buying. The index formed bullish
candle on the daily candlestick charts as well as weekly
scale. It closed half a percent higher for the truncated
week.The broader markets also participated in the rally
today with the Nifty Midcap index rising over a percent
while all sectoral indices ended in the green with Nifty
Bank, FMCG, Metal and Pharma rising 1-2 percent.
The Nifty50 started off session above 11,400 levels at
11,437.15 and rallied further during the day to touch an
intraday high of 11,486.45 but failed to reclaim its intraday
record high of 11,495.20 seen on August 9.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in
dices performed as follow; Commodities[16.05pts], Con-
sumption[25.50pts],PSE[-0.10pts],CPSE[+1.43pts],Energy
[168.55pts],FMCG[245.50pts],Auto[+104.36pts],Pharma
[+185.81pts],IT[+76.30pts],Metal[+216.43pts],Realty
[+14.98 pts], Fin Serv sector[+52.06pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
DJI 25,669.32 +0.43
S&P500 2,850.13 +0.33
NASDAQ 7,816.33 +9.81
FTSE100 7,558.59 +2.21
NIKKEI 22,210.22 -0.27
HANG SENG 27,463.00 +0.92
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Grasim 1,045.85 46.4 4.64
Yes Bank 393.2 14.75 3.9
Lupin 881.25 31.5 3.71
SBI 302.1 9.4 3.21
Vedanta 215.2 6.4 3.07
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
GAIL 387.70 -6.1 -1.55
Hero Motocorp 3242.3 -40.35 -1.23
Eicher Motors 28476.15 -327.7 -1.14
ONGC 163.05 -1.4 -0.85
Maruti Suzuki 9152.1 -48.45 -0.53
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
3MINDIA 25336.8 -136.8 -0.54
ALMONDZ 39.2 1.55 3.95
APCOTEXIND 619.35 12.65 2.04
ASTRAZEN 1708.25 181.75 10.64
BALAXI 26.05 1.3 4.99
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 11470.75 +85.70 +0.75
SENSEX 37947.88 +284.32 +0.75
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
ABMINTLTD 16.65 0 0
AMTEKAUTO 6.9 0.05 0.72
ANTGRAPHIC 0.5 0 0
BLUEBLENDS 6.65 0.15 2.26
BYKE 105.3 0.2 0.19
2. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
CADILAH - [CASH]
Stock has shown good strength from the bottom of the
chart with good volumes. It took support of trend line on
daily chart. The RSI has also shown reversal on daily chart.
We recommend to buy from current level for the target of
370 with the stop loss of 351.
MACRO NEW
Bank Nifty futures open interest data depicts the cycle
of Long- Long unwinding. Considering truncated week,
faster theta decay is certain. Thus to take combat the
fast perishing time value, Ratio Call Spread is recom-
mended, says Shubham Agarwal of Quantsapp Private
Limited.
While both the exchanges will together suspend Gitan-
jali Gems, Amtek Auto, Easun Reyrolle and Panoramic
Universal, the BSE will suspend Thambbi Modern Spin-
ning Mills, Indo Pacific Projects, Haryana Financial Cor-
poration, Noble Polymers and Samruddhi Realty as
well.
Infosys today announced that Chief Financial Officer M
D Ranganath has stepped down to pursue professional
opportunities in new areas”.His resignation was ac-
cepted by the Infosys Board on Saturday.Ranganath
will remain CFO until November 16.
Jet Airways will operate additional domestic and inter-
national flights to Thiruvananthapuram from Benga-
luru, Mumbai, Dammam and Dubai from Sunday, Au-
gust 19, in light of the floods in Kerala that have killed
hundreds. All operations from Cochin International
Airport have been suspended till Sunday, August 26,
due to floods in the city.
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1.TORNTPHARM [FUTURE ]
Stock was consolidating from past four trading sessions
and it outperformed well with good volumes and closed
near to days high. It is also trading near to 52 week high. It
should continue trend for next week. We recommend to buy
from current level for the target of 1780 with the stop loss of
1744.
2.GRANULES [FUTURE]
After a short consolidation stock outperformed well with
above the average volumes on daily chart. The RSI also mov-
ing up side on daily chart and it gave closing above the 200
SMA & EMA on daily chart. We recommend to buy from cur-
rent level for the target of 115 with the stop loss of 108.
3. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY CE 11,600 38 1,18,080 35,93,925
BANKNIFTY CE 28,000 251.05 97,623 3,83,600
NIFTY CE 11,400 142.5 91,525 28,36,500
BANKNIFTY CE 28,600 21.1 79,710 2,78,760
SUNPHARMA CE 640 8 8,006 22,23,100
TATASTEEL CE 600 7.65 7,079 21,26,244
YESBANK CE 400 7.4 6,364 32,93,500
TATAMOTOR CE 260 5.85 6,024 43,99,500
MARUTI CE 9,000 111.5 5,823 2,83,500MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY PE 27800 44 1,58,395 4,87,200
BANKNIFTY PE 27900 66.3 1,42,996 4,32,120
BANKNIFTY PE 27700 33.1 1,21,871 3,76,440
NIFTY PE 11300 37.5 1,12,559 41,74,200
RELIANCE PE 1200 18 4584 14,30,000
TATASTEEL PE 560 5.8 4247 12,70,017
RELIANCE PE 1180 10.55 4077 14,60,000
ICICIBANK PE 330 4.25 3989 58,19,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAYSELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 20467 1874.43 27766 2569.85 346671 30356.38 -695.4195
INDEX OPTIONS 552645 54925.69 533042 53011.42 772124 69030.26 1914.2644
STOCK FUTURES 158364 10898.93 146301 10043.50 1162435 87279.64 855.434
STOCK OPTIONS 111148 8344.02 114361 8556.46 142548 10938.40 -212.4435
1861.8354
STOCKS IN NEWS
Larsen & Toubro: Company will consider the pro-
posal of buyback of equity shares on August 23
Navin Fluorine's Managing Director Shekhar Khanol-
kar resigned
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty finished at all time highs but in previous week it
dint cross all time high of 11495, according to spot mar-
ket chart Nifty moving in rising channel line pattern
which followed in last week where Nifty traded near
pattern support level here down side support is at
11400, if Nifty break this level on closing basis then we
can see two per cent fall, while on future market chart it
is moving in rising wedge pattern and RSI also has double
top pattern where below 11274 it will divergence on RSI
so be cautious at this points, here Nifty can be buy
around 11400-11380 with strict stop loss of 11200 for
the target of 11550 11700 12000.
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 11403.66 11387.33 11455.00 11471.66 11523.33
BANKNIFTY 28331.67 28250.34 28127.67 28046.34 27923.67
4. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Gold prices fell by Rs 90 to Rs 30,250 per 10 grams at the
bullion market today owing to tepid demand from local jew-
ellers even as the precious metal strengthened overseas.
However, silver held steady at Rs 38,000 per kg on scattered
enquiries from industrial units and coin makers.
Marketmen attributed the slide in gold prices to easing de-
mand from local jewellers and retailers in the domestic spot
market but a firm trend overseas capped the fall.
Globally, gold rose by 0.93 percent to $1,184.60 ounce and
silver climbed 0.99 percent to $14.77 an ounce in New York
in yesterday's trade.
In the national capital, gold of 99.9 percent and 99.5 per-
cent purity declined by Rs 90 each to Rs 30,250 and Rs
30,100 per 10 grams, respectively.
Sovereign also traded lower by Rs 100 to Rs 24,400 per
piece of 8 grams. On the other hand, silver ready ruled flat
at Rs 38,000 per kg, while weekly-based delivery recovered
by Rs 235 to Rs 36,940 per kg on speculative buying.
Silver coins, however, held steady at Rs 72,000 for buying
and Rs 73,000 for selling of 100 pieces.
Natural Gas prices made a higher high for the week and
traded higher than last week closing of Rs 203.2. In general,
the market looks as if it is getting a bit heavy, but there is no
hurry to go in either direction right now.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported
Thursday morning that the US natural gas stockpiles in-
creased by 33 billion cubic feet for the week ending August
10.
In its August revision to the Short-Term Energy Outlook, the
EIA estimated that dry gas production rose by 8.4 billion
cubic feet per day to 81.8 billion cubic feet in July despite
record-high demand and relatively low inventory levels. Dai-
ly production is forecast to rise to 84.3 billion cubic feet by
the end of next year.Total US stockpiles rose week over
week to 22.3 percent below last year’s level and are now 20
percent below the five-year average.
The EIA reported that the US working stocks of natural gas
totalled about 2.387 trillion cubic feet at the end of last
week, around 595 billion below the five-year average of
2.982 trillion cubic feet and 687 billion below last year’s to-
tal for the same period.
Working gas in storage totalled 3.074 trillion cubic feet for
the same period a year ago. Bearish risks are record high
production, falling Cooling degree-days (CDD)/ Total degree
-days (TDD) and mild winter outlook. Rising nuclear outages
and global LNG fundamentals are the two bullish factors as
of now.
RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD ABOVE 29400 TGT 29470 29570 SL BELOW
29330
SELL GOLD BELOW 29330 TGT 29260 29160 SL ABOVE
29400
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER ABOVE 36900 TGT 37100 37400 SL BELOW
36700
SELL SILVER BELOW 36700 TGT 36500 36300 SL ABOVE
36900
5. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
Barley 1651 -0.18
Castor Seed 4609 -0.73
Chana 4290 -1.13
Coriander 4830 -0.47
Cotton Seed Oilcake 1730.5 -0.63
Guar Seed 10 MT 4582 -0.91
Jeera 19495 1.33
Mustardseed 4168 0.97
Soy Bean 3370 0.63
Turmeric 6966 0.09
RECOMMENDATIONS
GUARGUM5
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 9985 TARGET10030 10080 SL
9935
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 9825 TARGET 9775 9725 SL
9875
DHANIYA
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY CORIANDER SEP ABOVE 4985 TARGET 5030 5080 SL
4935
SELL CORIANDER SEP BELOW 4815 TARGET 4755 4705 SL
4965
Global soyabean production is on the upswing, pressuring pric-
es. What is coming as an additional headwind is the ongoing
trade slugfest between the US and China.
According to USDA latest crop production estimates -- released
last week -- global soybean production for crop year 2018-19
will reach 3,671 lakh tonnes against the earlier estimate of
3,594 lakh tonnes. While the US is seen to account for 1,248
lakh tonnes against the previous estimate of 1,172 lakh
tonnes, Brazil’s ..output is projected at 1,205 lakh tonnes
against Argentina’s 570 lakh tonnes. Even on the domestic
front, this year could be a bumper one for soyabean produc-
tion as sowing crossed 11 million hectares.
US end stock is expected to stay higher on lower export to Chi-
na because of the ongoing trade issues involving China.
The prices are visibly under pressure. Soybean futures con-
tracts at CBOT plunged more than 5 per cent below 900 cent
per bushel. Looking at fundamentals and the record global
output, further weakness in the soybean prices cannot be
ruled out. The dollar is getting stronger among its peers, a neg-
ative for global commodity prices.
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) has
successfully settled its first options contract in guar seed after
trading over 52,000 tonnes, according to a release issued by
the exchange on Monday. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had
announced the commencement of agri options contract in
guar seed on January 14. On the launch day, the quantity trad-
ed was 8,010 tonnes. The first set of call and put options ex-
pired on February 28, 2018 with 1,130 tonnes being exercised
by holders of the options. The open interest in the February expiry
options increased from the first day’s 4,290 tonnes to touch a peak
of 8710 metric tonnes on February 23, 2018.The average daily
EOD Open Interest was 6610 MT.
On the completion of the first settlement of agri commodity op-
tions, a NCDEX spokesperson said, “It is heartening to observe
that such a large number of members actively participated in the
first ever expiry options of an agri commodity. With increasing
participation in the exchange, we are sure the subsequent options
expiring on 28 March 2018 and 25 April 2018 will also be suc-
cessful.”
6. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 70.2287 Yen 63.35
Euro 79.9718 GBP 89.3670
USD/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY USDINR ABOVE 70.35 TGT 70.55/70.75 SL BELOW 70.20
SELL USDINR BELOW 70.15 TGT 70/69.80 SL ABOVE 70.32
GBP/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GBPINR ABOVE 89.50 TGT 89.70/89.90 SL BELOW 89.35
SELL GBPINR BELOW 89.30 TGT 89.10/88.90 SL ABOVE 89.48
A parliamentary committee looking into the issue of
mounting non-performing assets (NPAs) has asked former
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan to appear before it and brief
on the matter. Rajan was invited after former Chief Eco-
nomic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian praised him be-
fore the Parliament's Committee on Estimates, headed by
veteran BJP leader Murali Manohar Joshi, for identifying
the NPA crisis and trying to resolve it. Joshi has written a
letter to Rajan asking to appear before the panel and brief
the members on the issue of mounting NPAs, a source
said. Rajan, who was RBI governor for three years till Sep-
tember 2016, is currently the Katherine Dusak Miller Dis-
tinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth
School of Business.
The letter has been written to Rajan after Subramanian
credited him for identifying the problem, the source said.
Subramanian appeared before the panel last month as CEA
and briefed it on the bad loans issue. During his submis-
sion, he expressed scepticism over the handling of the
NPAs and indicated that big-ticket loans by public sector
banks were influenced. Indian currency and debt markets
are closed on Friday for a local holiday and trading would
resume on Monday, but the local stock markets will be
functioning as normal.On Thursday, the benchmark 10-
year bond yield ended at 7.86 percent, up 4 basis points
from its Tuesday's close.All financial markets including
stocks were closed on Wednesday for Independence Day
celebrations.The partially convertible rupee INR=D2 closed
Thursday at 70.15/16 per dollar versus its previous close of
69.90/91. It hit a record low of 70.40 during the session.
At press time, the USD/INR is trading at 70.20, having
clocked a record high of 70.32 earlier today.
The Indian currency fell past 70 per US dollar earlier this
week, courtesy of the broad-based sell-off in the Asian cur-
rencies.
The INR's pain has been accentuated by worsening eco-
nomic data. India’s trade deficit widened to a more-than-
five-year high of $18.02 billion in July, the trade ministry
said on Tuesday, according to a Reuters report.
The Indian rupee dropped to a record low in opening deals
on Thursday with investor sentiment affected by a widen-
ing trade deficit on the domestic front and the broad rise in
the U.S. dollar versus other Asian peers.
7. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
Date
Commodity/ Cur-
rency Pairs
Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
17/08/18 NCDEX DHANIYA SEP BUY 4930 4980-5030 4880 OPEN
17/08/18 NCDEX DHANIYA SEP SELL 4870 4820-4770 4920 NOT EXECUTED
17/08/18
NCDEX GUAR-
GUM5
OCT BUY 9800 9850-9900 9750 TARGET HIT
17/08/18
NCDEX GUAR-
GUM5
OCT SELL 9730 9680-9630 9780 TARGET HIT
17/08/18 MCX GOLD OCT BUY 29600 29700-29900 29500 NOT EXECUTED
17/08/18 MCX GOLD OCT SELL 29350 29250-29150 29450 SL TRIGGERED
17/08/18 MCX SILVER SEP BUY 37400 37600-37900 37200 NOT EXECUTED
17/08/18 MCX SILVER SEP SELL 36700 36500-36300 36900 NOT EXECUTED
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
17/08/18 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 11440-20 11350-300 11480 NOT EXECUTED
17/08/18 SUNPHARMA FUTURE BUY 612-615 625-635 605 NOT EXECUTED
17/08/18 DLF FUTURE BUY 206.90-208 212-216 203 NOT EXECUTED
17/08/18 NBCC CASH BUY 74.50-75 76.50-78.50 73.25 COST EXIT
8. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
20-Aug-2018
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NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, AUG. 20
None scheduled
TUESDAY, AUG. 21
None scheduled
WEDNES-
DAY, AUG.
22
WEDNESDAY, AUG. 22
WEDNES-
DAY, AUG.
22
WEDNESDAY, AUG.
22
WEDNESDAY,
AUG. 22
WEDNES-
DAY, AUG.
22
WEDNESDAY, AUG. 22
2 pm FOMC minutes 7/31-8/1
THURSDAY, AUG. 23
9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI (flash) Aug. -- 55.3
9:45 am Markit services PMI (flash) Aug. -- 56.0
10 am New home sales July 641,000 631,000
FRIDAY, AUG. 24
8:30 am Core capital goods orders July -- 0.7%
10 am Jerome Powell speaks