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- 1. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Climate Science Appendix Ap – Math Plots
- 2. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 What the math tells us What we don’t know is astounding If we can’t convert unknowns in time to forestall known existential risks, then immediate action must be mandated. Cutting research funding, UN support/participation means direct action must be engaged Here is what we CAN show: • Temperature effects from one pulse of CO2 • Temperature effects from one pulse of CH4 • Temperature effects of CO2 past 2050 • Temperature effects of CH4 past 2050
- 3. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Doing the math The GWP stuff – Behavior of one pulse of CO2 ( GWP = 1)
- 4. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Doing the math The GWP stuff – Behavior of one pulse of CH4 using GWP0 = 125
- 5. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Doing the math The GWP stuff – 34 years of CO2, then coast at 2050
- 6. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Doing the math The GWP stuff – 34 years of CH4, then coast at 2050
- 7. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 We can’t know the future What we don’t know is astounding If we can’t convert unknowns in time to forestall known existential risks, then immediate action must be mandated. We are being forced by the existence of fossil fuels to struggle with a dire and unpredictable future We can cut the risk • Its easier to eliminate the problem than to struggle with it at great risk for who knows how long Accumulation of economic risk as forced by future unknowns is explored by Wagner and Weitzman in Climate Shock
- 8. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Climate Shock © 2015 The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet Wagner and Weitzman CO2 IPCC Human Causation 1995 - Not unlikely 2001 – Likely 2007 – Very likely 2013 – Extremely likely 2015 – Virtually certain Identify Root Cause of GHG Amount of GHG Emitted Measured GHG Concentration Global Temp Climate Damage Impact on Habitability Society’s Coping Effectiveness of Response Arc of Truth: Carbon Overuse Coffin Corner CO2e Start at 280ppm Serious Unknown Climate Sensitivity - Unknown 700ppm =2016 CO2 at 400ppm CO2e > 1900ppb Start at 790ppb 6 deg C [10%] 2 deg C Serious Unknown Serious Unknown Serious Unknown No reflection Acidification Methane release Sea Level Food collapse Refugees Conflict Disease Extinctions False profits Surprises Trees do not absorb CO2e Personal mortality risk Car accident, lifetime 1% Heart disease 0.2% Why not cut root causes ? [10% - p55] Solar Source [compounding uncertainties p57] [knowns and unknowns p56] [insured risks p55] [cascade of uncertainties p12]