First annual GRESB spring conference, hosted by Siemens at The Crystal in London on May 4th, and in collaboration with BBP, UK-GBC, and support from RI, IPF, INREV.
+Mark Jenkinson, Siemens | Welcome and Crystal Introduction [slide 5]
+Sarah Ratcliffe, BBP [slide 21]
+Prof. Dr. Sven Bienert, Regensburg University | "Climate Change Implications for Real Estate Portfolio Allocation: Business as usual or game changer?" [slide 26]
+Tatiana Bosteels, Hermes Investment Management | "Climate risks, resilience, and opportunities" [slide 59]
+Miles Keeping, IPF | "Climate Risk and resilience: An industry response"[slide 70]
+Caroline Hill, Land Securities | "Setting science-based carbon reduction targets" [slide 76]
+Simon Cox, Prologis | "Embodied Carbon Mitigation" [slide 88]
+John Davies, Derwent London plc | "Engaging occupiers" [slide 104]
+Niko Kavakiotis, Siemens Building Technology | "Leading Sustainability Innovations for Real Estate: The new..and the old (we forget)" [slide116]
+Ragnar Martens, GRESB [slide 133]
+Tobias Huber, Siemens | "Digitalization of Real Estate: New ways to systematically increase sustainable real estate asset value" [slide 150]
+Claire Penny, IBM | "Watson IoT - Cognitive Buildings" [167]
+Keith Gunaratne, EP&T | "Achieving a 30% ROI" [slide 175]
+Benjamin Kott, EnergyDeck | "From Known Knowns to the Science of Interstellar" [slide 183]
1. 2017 GRESB-Siemens Spring Conference
Leading Sustainability Innovations for Real Assets
#GSC17 @SiemensBT@GRESB
2. 9:00 Welcome, Sander Paul van Tongeren, GRESB
9:10 Introduction & The Crystal, Mark Jenkinson, Siemens
9:30 Session 1: Climate Risk and Resilience – getting 2 degree ready
11:00 Coffee Break
11:30 Session 2: ESG Solutions in Real Estate – new methods of mitigation
13:00 Lunch
14:15 Session 3: The Impact of Digitalization – IoT for buildings
15:10 Coffee Break
15:25 Session 3: Panel
16:10 Closing, Sander Paul van Tongeren, GRESB
16:25 Drinks & Networking
3. We appreciate your participation
@GRESB
#GSC17
@SiemensBT
Answer our questions at kahoot.it
Siemens Building Technologies
@siemensbt
Siemens Building TechnologiesGRESB
4. 2017 GRESB-Siemens Spring Conference
Leading Sustainability Innovations for Real Assets
#GSC17 @SiemensBT@GRESB
26. “Climate Change Implications for Real Estate Portfolio Allocation:
Business as usual or game changer?”
GRESB SPRING CONFERENCE 2017 – Session 1 on Climate Risk and Resilience
4th May 2017Prof. Dr. Sven Bienert MRICS REV, Head of Departement
28. 3GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Current status of national goals: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
Source:(http://cait.wri.org/indc/,(2016
• All countrieshave already publishedtheir INDCs. Their share accountsfor 90% inglobal GHGemissions.
• The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Researchdoubtsthe sufficiency ofthe announcedINDCs to limitglobal warming to
3°C with respectto preindustrial levels(official goal:2°C).
Unfortunately we are on track for 3 degree plus (1/2)
29. 4GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Sources: www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/february-smashes-earths-alltime-global-heat-record-by-a-jawdropping, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/18/science/earth/2016-hottest-year-on-record.html
Global development 1980-2016
Unfortunately we are on track for 3 degree plus (2/2)
Monthly anomaly of global movingaverage temperature 1880 - 2016
30. 5GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Downside „Risk“
Upside „Risk“
Portfolio level
• diversification
• investment alternative with special risk-return profile
• Green Funds, SRI and RPI „en vogue“
Geiger, Cajias, Bienert (2013): The Asset Allocation of Sustainable Real
Estate: A Chance for a Green Contribution?
Intensive research with hedonic pricing (regression)
Positive impact
Corporate level
• Sustainability as productionfactor
• Positive Impact on Yields, Tobin´s Q, Asset Turnover and
risk measures
• CSR-strategy
Ansari, Cajias, Bienert (2015): The Value contribution of Sustainability
Reporting – an empirical evidence for real estate companies.
Property level
• Sustainability is impacting rents, vacancies and values
• Green Building certificates
Cajias, Fürst, Bienert (2016): Is energy efficiency priced in the German
housing market? – Large sample evidence from Germany.
Negative impact
More extreme weather events and „looser“ regions
• High impact on real estate and infrastructure
• Due to creeping climatechanges and extremes
• Adaptation and mitigation required
Bienert (2014): Extreme Weather Events and Property Values Assessing
New Investment Frameworks for the Decades Ahead.
Hirsch, Braun, Bienert (2015): Assessment of Climatic Risks for Real
Estate.
Bienert (2016): Climate change implications
for real estate portfolio allocation
Various ongoing research projects
Limited Real estate research. Extreme value statistics
and climate data
Adaption
Mitigation
vs.
Climate change = Climate risk?
Climate change triggers …
Upside-chances and Downside-risks
31. 6GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Climate data is getting more and more precise
Emergence of global climate model GCM: Global vs. Regional climate models:
GCM
RCM
(REMO-
CLM)
Source: www.southwestclimatechange.org (left), www.remo-rcm.de (right)
Only Trump might doubt that data is still not precise…
32. 7GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
ULI Report: Extreme weather events and property values by Prof. Bienert
Business Case affectedby climate change
• There are many ways our business cases are
influencedby climate change, mitigation
policies, changes inconsumerbehaviour,
more investorsapplying ESG/PRI criteria
etc.
• One aspect is the potential loss caused by
extremeweather events on property level!
33. 8GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Extreme weather events affecting property values
• Real estate values are being increasingly threatened by extreme weather events, such as storms,
hail, flooding, droughts, tropical cyclones, and landslides.
• These extreme events have far greater relevance for real estate investors than the more
frequently discussed effects of creeping climate change, such as rising mean temperatures.
• The number of extreme weather events has doubled globally since the 1980s to an average of
over 800 events per year during the past decade.
• The occurrence of such events is therefore escalating and is likely to continue to do so until the
end of this century (and beyond), as climate change becomes more severe.
38. 13GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Implications for Investors
How to react?
• Check your risk
• Question short and long term effectson values/pricing
• Check if riskis coveredby insurance
• Searchfor adaptationmeasures andwhat the regional
government does (foryou)
• E.g.: Germanys government does a lot onadaptation,
tools andincreasing transparency. ImmoRisk(left)
developedby Bienert et al. is just one example!
39. 14GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
• Global Warming/Heatwaves and (illegal) deforestation led to delicate situations in Brazil.
• The town suffers from severe water shortage. Between August and September 2014, water supply for residential properties
was completely abandoned. Drinking water was available via public springs only (social escalation). Solution of the
situation: rainfall in November.
• Does history repeat itself in Sao Paulo?
• Sao Paulo is the largest city as well as the most important business
location in SouthAmerica; only about 10% of water reserves are still
available
• Since March 2015 additionally: (random) rationing of drinking water
• Political ignorance worsens the situation (Governor of Sao Paulo:
„There is no water shortage“, 30.09.2014)
• Public sector and policy unable to react properly due to corruption, economic downturn, missing financing
capabilities, lack of transparency and responsibilities.
• 40 % of residential properties are not regularly supplied with water any more
• People accumulate used water for second-hand use (risk: gastro-intestinal diseases, dengue fever)
Would you want to invest there –
in exchange for some BP more returns?
Example 1: Ecology, housing and quality of life in Sao Paulo
40. 15GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
• „California will run out of water within one year“ (NASA)
• Four-years drought and temperature records make California‘s water reserves drain
• New water saving regulation provides for annual cutbacks of up to 36 %.
• Fines of up to $10,000 for local water companies are legally enforced from July on
• Exemplary saving targets
• Montecito / Beverly Hills minus 36 %
• PaloAlto minus 28 %
• Santa Barbara minus 16 % …
• Properties are considered as a significant
driver of water consumption
• While agricultural production must be ensured,
especially real estate (existing and new buildings)
as well as their outdoor facilities (watering, pools)
are captured by the authorities.
Would you want to invest there –
in exchange for some BP more returns?
Example 2: Ecology, housing and quality of life in California
41. 16GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
• 50 senior executivesat leading real estate
investment and management firms with €428
billion AuM participated
• Main questions addressed:
1. What impact do real estate investors expect
climate change to have across regions, and on
their portfolios and business strategy?
2. How are real estate investors and asset
managers addressing climate change within their
portfolios, and how do they expect those practices
to change over time?
3. What barriers and opportunities are there to
more expanded action within the real estate
sector to addressclimate change?
Climate change implications
for real estate portfolio allocation
52. 29GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
German Government Report (here BBSR): Decarbonization of cities
• International analysisof cities and their
respectiveactivities to cut down GHG
emissions
• Identification of best practises
• 250 pages analysis releasedinJanuary 2017
• Funded by BBSR/German Government
Crucial observations on the successful decarbonizationincities
and districts
53. 30GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Crucial observations on the successful decarbonizationincities
and districts
vision,
aims,
political
stability
Governance-structure,
city government and
-administration
Success Factors:
• sector coupling
• digitalization
• financial basis
• balance between market und regulation
• district approach & polycentric structures
• plurality of development trajectories & mix of instruments
Data basis / carbon inventory /
Dynamic data update / data migration from othersystems /
use of guidelines (GPC) and reportingplatforms (cCR, CDP)
Mobility Building Energy
Urban
planning
Economy/
garbage
disposal
City networks
• international positioning
• platform
• guidelines / tools
Citizen / Consumer:
• diversity of actors
• NGOs
• participation/dialogue
• change in behavior
information /
communication
needs /
participation
empowerment
support
active engagement
competence
through monitoring
and reporting
transparency &
understanding
dedication &
support
54. 31GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
“Sustainable long term competitiveness is dominatingthe thinking within the business environment since its
existence.” (Collin and Porras 1994,Makower 1994 andGladwin et al. 1995)
Risk Control
Early Mover
Advantage
Long Term Business
Success
Long Term View on
Natural Resources
Which role does
sustainability play in
this respect?
Sustainability – property level
• Bienert Immovalue– IREBS (2011)
• Cajias and Piazolo – IREBS
(2012/2013)
• Chegut, Eichholtz andKok (2012)
• Fürst and McAllister (2011a)
Influence of sustainability on
• rents
• transaction prices
• vacancy rate
!Thoroughly researched both
quantitatively und qualitatively
Sustainability – company level
• Newell and Lee (2012)
• Falkenbach,Lindholm,Schleich
(2010)
• Newell (2009)
• Roberts et al. (2007)
Influence of sustainability on
• investment decision
• risk profile
!Rather descriptive, qualitative
approach
Sustainability – portfoliolevel
• Geiger, Cajias, Bienert (2013)
! Particularly within the multi-
asset-portfoliostill considered as
white spot
Profitability / Pay off on property level
57. 28GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Curriculum Vitae - Prof. Dr. Sven Bienert
IRE|BS InternationalReal Estate Business School
University of Regensburg
Prof. Dr. Sven Bienert MRICS
• MBA, Master in Real Estate
• MBA, Master in General Management
• General Court-Certified Valuer
• Trustee in Real Estate
Current activities:
• Head of IRE|BS
International Real Estate Business School
• Professor of Sustainable Real Estate at IRE|BS
• Various research projects
• Member of various associations and working groups
(DGNB Council,ARE Board member/Tegova, Immq
Board member, ICG Board member, DVFA commission
leader etc.)
58. 27GRESB'SPRING'CONFERENCE'– 4th'May'2017 Prof.'Dr.'Sven'Bienert'MRICS'REV'
Contact
Prof. Dr. Sven Bienert MRICS
IRE|BS Department of Real Estate
Head of Department
and Head of the
Competence Center of Sustainable Real Estate
University of Regensburg
Universitätsstraße 31
D-93040 Regensburg
Tel.: +49 (0)941 943-6011
Fax: +49 (0) 941 943-816013
Mail: sven.bienert@irebs.de
IRE|BS Competence Center of
Sustainable Real Estate
59. For professional investors only
Excellence. Responsibility. Innovation.
Climate risks, resilience and opportunities
GRESB Spring Forum
Tatiana Bosteels, Director for Responsibility
April 2017
67. G20 EE Investment Toolkit (2017)
G20 EE Investment Toolkit
Private Sector
Finance
Policy
Public Sector
Finance
Banks
Long Term
Investors
Insurance
Companies
1.We will embed in our decision‐making
environmental, social and governance issues
relevant to our insurance business.
2.We will work together with our clients and
business partners to raise aware ness of
environmental, social and governance issues,
manage risk and develop solutions.
3.We will work together with governments,
regulators and other key stakeholders to
promote widespread action across society on
environmental,social and governance issues.
4.We will demonstrate accountability and
transparency in regularly disclosing publicly
our progress in implementingthe Principles.
G20 Energy Ministers in
Istanbul in 2015 & attached
to the G20 Leaders’
Communique from Antalya
EEFTG Energy Efficiency
Investment Principles for
G20 Participating Countries
G20 Energy Efficiency
Leading Programme
68. Navigating low carbon pathways
Whole value chain approach to managing carbon risk and opportunities
10
We need to challenge the current economic and
financial models used by the investment industry if
we are to ensure the world does not breach the
scientifically-guided objectives we have set for
ourselves on climate change.
69. Exposure to natural hazard and climate risks and opportunities
From risks to positive impacts
11Responsible Property Investment 2017
HFM managed real estate and infrastructure
Kings Cross –
regeneration of inner
London
70. Climate Risk and Resilience:
An industry response
Miles Keeping, Hillbreak
Chairman, IPF Sustainability Interest Group
@Miles_Keeping @Hillbreak_Ltd
80. Setting,our,scienceZbased,target
CO2
#
1
• We wanted a target which applied to our whole portfolio, not just
a few buildings. Setting an intensity target based on floor area
allowed us to do that
• Land Securities didn’t have a carbon target, it was thought both
internally and by external stakeholders that we would benefit
from setting a company wide carbon target
• Energy consumption remains a material issue for our company,
we therefore needed to set an additional, ambitious energy
target
• We were set the challenge of becoming sustainability leaders
within the real estate sector
102. 2. Engage – Community programme
Fact & figures:
Prologis increasesits sustainability impact throughcommunity engagement. It does this by sponsoring
certificationtoThe Planet MarkTM andsustainability workshops inlocalprimary schools andcolleges through
The Planet MarkTM for NewDevelopmentsprogramme.
42
schools and
colleges
2,342
pupils in
workshops
5,603
pupils in
assemblies
35
PlanetMark
certifications
46
Eden Project
visits
106. • Largest central London specialist REIT
• 6m sq/ft valued at over £5bn (31st Dec 2016)
• 97% in central London – 71% of portfolio in West End and 26%
in City borders
• Design led philosophy for regenerating/refurbishing buildings, creating
unique, highly desirable, efficient and affordable spaces
• Property investor, developer and manager
• Concepts of sustainability underpinning our approach and ethos
135. MISSION
Enhance and protect shareholder
value by assessing and empowering
sustainability practices in the real
asset sector
Enhance protect
assessing
sustainability practices
169. 3
The Dark Side of Big Data
not analysis
tools setup
only analyzes
structured
data
Tools can’t
make sense
of data
90%
45%
sensor data
that is never
utilised
28%
17%
USED DATA
DARK DATA
170. 4
Example – Tesco Ireland
Strong investment in montioring infrastructure of their stores to make them more energy
efficient
The collected amount of data was so big that they did not know what to do with it
IBM Research helped them to analyze their data and identify saving potential
160
Stores
110.956
Data Objects
678 TB
Data per annum
£20M savings pa
20%
reduced cooling
172. 6
Self-Learning Energy Diagnosis
Bob, Energy Manager
TASKS
Monitors and identifies abnormal enery consumption
Develops and implements strategies and policies
to reduce energy consumption
Benchmarking energy consumptions against best
practice guidelines
CHALLENGE
Identifying energy waste and diagnosing its causes
ENABLER
Smart Meter, Weather Data, Machine Learning
SOLUTION
Bob has a easy to use tool that learns normal consumption
based on weather, occupancy and and that is able to
autonomously identify and diagnose abnormal consumption.
“The energy consumption
increased by 20%. If I only could
find out why.”
173. 7
A large API stack is available to build Cognitive Buildings
Language
Vision
AnalyticsIntegration
dashDB with R
Security
Storage
Mobile
118 Development Services and API on Bluemix
Phase 1: Data Center Phase 2: Campus Phase 3: More Sites
STORE
INTEGRATE
INTERACT
REASON
INSTRUMENT
LEARN &
175. GRESB Spring Conference 2017
The Impact of Digitalisation – Achieving a 30% ROI
Keith Gunaratne, Founder & Product Architect, EP&T Global
London, 4th May 2017
176. How to achieve a minimum 30% ROI
Quantum of savings
Scalability across large portfolios
Use of data to change hearts and minds
Guaranteed ROI
Open data systems
Proprietary algorithms
What to look for:
177. Manchester Arndale Centre (Retail)
12,000 data packets per day
£1.1m gross savings achieved
33% reduction in energy consumption
38% achieved ROI
Quantum of savings
178. Manchester Arndale Centre
“...we are extremely proud of the energy
reductions achieved and thrilled that these have
won several highly acclaimed industry awards.”
David Allinson, Centre Director
Changing hearts and minds
180. Stockland portfolio
2016 GRESB Global Sector Leader
24 office buildings
28 shopping centres
£25m gross savings and avoided costs
30%+ achieved ROI
Scalability
181. Conclusions
Embrace digitalisation.
There is a serious shortage of skills and resources at building level.
Don’t wait for regulation – you move and regulation will follow.
Seek track record.
Seek guaranteed outcomes.
30% ROI is real.
Demonstrate leadership
182. Thank you
Keith Gunaratne, Founder & Product Architect
keith.g@eptglobal.com www.eptglobal.com
Australia | UK & Europe | Middle East | Asia
186. Confidential & Proprietary
BUILDING OPERATIONS TODAY (KNOWN KNOWNS)
May 2017 www.energydeck.com
Manual reads
Very few meters
Meters disconnected
Utility bills
Invoice validation
“Looks OK to me”
Manual alarms
Regression analysis
Manual only
“Let it roll” (BMS)
“Make it cold!” (aka
manual override)
4
SENSORS ANALYTICS CONTROLS
ANALYTICS OFTEN STILL SPREADSHEET AND REPORT/PDF BASED
187. Confidential & Proprietary
THERE IS HOPE - THE FUTURE IS HAPPENING NOW
May 2017 www.energydeck.com
30,000+ sensors
Fully Internet of
Things (IoT) enabled
The Edge, Amsterdam
3 meters
Minimal
configuration
300 meters
Fully
sub-metered
5
188. Confidential & Proprietary
CASE STUDY: LARGE OFFICE BLOCK
• Multi tenant, multi use
• Hundreds of data feeds,
mostly well documented
• Detailed asset & usage data
May 2017 www.energydeck.com 6
Too much data
for a human to
monitor by
hand (eye)
190. Confidential & Proprietary
CASE STUDY: LARGE AIRPORT
• Massively multi-use
• Extreme fluctuations in usage
• Thousands of meter feeds
• Metering mostly at aggregated
level (e.g. distribution boards)
• Hundreds of potential parameters
• Difficulty to justify retrofit ROIs
May 2017 www.energydeck.com 8
Impossible to
manage with
traditional
methods
194. Confidential & Proprietary
MISSION STATEMENT - UPDATED
May 2017 www.energydeck.com 12
EnergyDeck Ltd
35 Paul Street
London EC2A 4JY
www.energydeck.com
info@energydeck.com
Let’s DATA science the
sh*t out of this!
Credits: 20th Century Fox / EnergyDeck