On 17 May, ESRI researcher Gianluca Grilli presented Home heating fuels: spatial, socio-demographic and building determinants' at the ESRI-UCC-MaREI energy research: climate action conference. View all slides from the conference here: https://www.esri.ie/events/esri-ucc-marei-energy-research-climate-action-conference

1. Home heating fuels: spatial, socio-demographic
and building determinants
Grilli G., Tovar Reaños M., Curtis J.
gianluca.grilli@esri.ie
ESRI-UCC-MaREI energy research: climate action conference
17th May 2019, Dublin

2. Background Methods Results
Acknowledgements
This research is part of the ESRI - EPRC reserach program
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 2 / 15

3. Background Methods Results
Background
Climate targets: -80% emissions by 2050
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 3 / 15

4. Background Methods Results
Background
Climate targets: -80% emissions by 2050
Investigate factor affecting gas connection
Investigate factor affecting consumption
Provide a profile of connected vs non-connected buildings
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 3 / 15

5. Background Methods Results
Data
Source: CSO + GNI
domestic premises (exc. apartments)
Subset of all existing buildings:
Distance from network ≤ 30m
Only Buildings available in both 2011 and 2016
Property-specific variables
Socio-demographics
Approx. 556,000 Obs
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 4 / 15

6. Background Methods Results
Data
Table: Main fuel type
Mean st. dev Min Max
Gas 0.766 0.424 0 1
Oil 0.170 0.376 0 1
Solid fuels 0.038 0.190 0 1
Electricity 0.027 0.161 0 1
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 5 / 15

7. Background Methods Results
Data
Table: Distance from Network
Mean st. dev Min Max
≤ 15m 0.548 0.498 0 1
15 − 20m 0.311 0.463 0 1
20 − 30m 0.141 0.348 0 1
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 6 / 15

8. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 7 / 15

9. Background Methods Results
Estimation methods
Gas connection:
Multinomial logit model
Connection as a function of:
distance
house characteristics
personal variables
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 8 / 15

10. Background Methods Results
Estimation methods
Gas connection:
Multinomial logit model
Connection as a function of:
distance
house characteristics
personal variables
Consumption:
Ordered probit model
Heckman Correction:
first stage: Binary probit
for connection
Second stage: ordered
probit model
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 8 / 15

11. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas connection
Table: Probability of Gas connection related to network distance
Distance Prob. Of gas connection
≤ 15m (ref. level)
15 − 20m -6%
20 − 30m -12.70%
The cost of connection increases with distance
Table: Probability of Oil connection
Distance Prob. Of oil connection
≤ 15m (ref. level)
15 − 20m 5.60%
20 − 30m 10.40%
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 9 / 15

12. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas connection
Table: House Ownership and house type
Owneship Prob. Of gas connection
owner with mortgage (ref.level)
outright owner 7.50%
Rent (from private) -3.70%
Rent (from public) 7%
House type:
Detached houses (ref. level)
Semi-detached 4%
Terraced houses 5.70%
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 10 / 15

13. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 11 / 15

14. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 12 / 15

15. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 13 / 15

16. Background Methods Results
Concluding Remarks
Gas connection affected by:
Distance (at increasing rates)
Peak for 2001–2010 buildings
after 2010: electricity
Owners: with mortgage and
social housing
House type: Semi-detached
houses and terraced houses
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 14 / 15

17. Background Methods Results
Concluding Remarks
Gas connection affected by:
Distance (at increasing rates)
Peak for 2001–2010 buildings
after 2010: electricity
Owners: with mortgage and
social housing
House type: Semi-detached
houses and terraced houses
Consumption affected by:
Age of buildings (≈ Energy
efficiency)
The house type
Private owners consume
more
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 14 / 15

18. Background Methods Results
Thank you for your attention
Questions?
gianluca.grilli@esri.ie
www.esri.ie | @ESRIDublin | #ESRIpublications Grilli Climate Action ESRI-UCC-MaREI 15 / 15