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Budget Perspectives 2024
DATE
15th June 2023
VENUE
The Royal College of
Physicians, No.6 Kildare
Street, Dublin 2, D02 E434
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Cliff Edges in the Irish Tax-
Benefit System
Michael Doolan
Claire Keane
Budget Perspectives 2023
15 June 2023
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3 15 June 2023
Introduction
• Trade-offs exist in protecting those on lower
incomes and ensuring an adequate incentive to
work.
• Supports that assist those on low incomes can
also disincentivise work, generally they
therefore get withdrawn as income rises.
• Cliff edges in the tax-benefit system – points
where tax or PRSI liabilities rise, or benefits are
withdrawn, sharply – can disincentivise
employment or working more.
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4 15 June 2023
Introduction
• Research has shown that individuals adjust their
behaviour when faced with such points.
• The OECD has highlighted some cliff edges in
the Irish tax-benefit system (Browne et al.,
2018)
• The Commission on Taxation and Welfare
(2022) recommends that ‘cliff edges in the
taxation and welfare system should be
removed’.
• What such cliff edges exist in the Irish system?
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5 15 June 2023
Taxation and Social
Insurance System
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6 15 June 2023
PRSI and USC
• Both PRSI and USC have a cliff edge whereby a
small increase in gross income results in a larger
drop in net income.
• Driven by the fact that both have a
‘threshold’(€352 per week PRSI; 13k p.a. USC)
below which no PRSI/USC liability exists. Once
threshold is crossed the entire income becomes
liable for the charge.
• This can distort behaviour e.g. Hargaden and
Roantree (2019), using administrative income
receipt data, find a clustering of incomes just below
the PRSI liability threshold.
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7 15 June 2023
PRSI
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000
PRSI
liability
Annual
income
after
USC
and
PRSI
Annual earnings
Income after USC and PRSI Income after PRSI/USC (no PRSI credit)
PRSI liability PRSI liability (no PRSI credit)
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8 15 June 2023
PRSI and USC Reforms
We examine two (revenue neutral) reforms in the case
of both PRSI and USC:
PRSI (weekly):
• Reform 1: €0 – €32 : 0% ; >€32: 4%
• Reform 2: €0 – €352: 0% ; >€352: 5.8%
USC (annual):
• Reform 1: €0-975: 0% ; >975: current rates
• Reform 2: €0-13k: 0% ; >13k: +.02 p.p. on
current rates
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9 15 June 2023
Distributional impact of PRSI Reforms
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10 15 June 2023
Distributional impact of USC reforms
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11 15 June 2023
Distributional impact of USC reforms
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12 15 June 2023
Income Tax
• Income tax system does not have a cliff edge, bands of
income can have a 0%/20%/40% tax liability.
• One group faces a quicker rise in taxation than others
however – secondary earners in married couples.
• Due to the fact that the tax system is only partly
individualised – partial sharing of the SRB and tax credits.
• Disincentive for 2nd earners in married couples to enter
employment. Doorley (2018) found the move in 2000 from
a joint taxation system to the current partly individualised
system led to a 5/6 p.p rise in the participation rates of
married women.
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13 15 June 2023
Additional income tax liability by earnings
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
Household
additional
income
tax
Earnings of secondary earner
Single Secondary earner (partner - 90k)
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14 15 June 2023
Social Welfare System
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15 15 June 2023
Social Welfare Cliff Edges
• Most means-tested welfare payments have a gradual withdrawal.
• ‘Four-in-seven’ rule: those working part-time can receive JSA, at
a pro-rata rate if unemployed for 4/7 consecutive days +. Two
lower-income individuals working part-time can have different
JSA entitlements depending on their workdays.
This requirement was not included in the JST payment - ‘would
allow you to work mornings only while your child or children are
in school’ (www.gov.ie)
• Working Family Payment is a weekly tax-free payment for
employees with at least one child. Only available to an individual
working at least 38 hours per fortnight. This issue of a lack of in-
work support for those on low pay is heightened by the four-in-
seven rule.
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16 15 June 2023
Other Benefits
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17 15 June 2023
National Childcare Scheme
• NCS provides hourly subsidies for Tusla-registered
childcare for children between the ages of 6 months
and 15 years.
• Means – tested and universal element.
• The scheme specifies a lower income limit, below which
the max subsidy can be received and an upper limit
whereby only the universal subsidy can be received.
• The rate of withdrawal therefore rises as the number of
children increases.
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18 15 June 2023
Doorley et al (2019)
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19 15 June 2023
Medical Cards
• Most medical cards are means tested.
• Harder to tackle this cliff edge.
• 2005 introduction of GP-Visit cards; retained card;
discretionary cards.
100% social welfare rule: If an individual’s assessable income
is above the income limit and all of this income comes from
social welfare, they will receive a medical card.
• Creates a work disincentive
• Creates horizontal inequity
• Heighted by a failure to increase/index income limits –
static since 2005.
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20 15 June 2023
Medical card income limits/SW rates 2005-2023
Under 70s (net income) – 2005-2023 €
Single person living alone aged up to 65 184
Single person living alone aged 66 and over 201.50
Single person living with family aged up to 65 164
Single person living with family aged 66 and over 173.50
2005 (€) 2023 (€)
% Change 2005–
2023
Jobseeker’s Benefit (JSB) /Jobseeker’s Allowance 25+ (JSA)/ Disability
Allowance (DA)
Personal rate 148.80 220 48%
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21 15 June 2023
Student Grants and Housing Supports
3rd Level Grants:
• Bands exists so that as parental income rises by a small
amount, grant entitlement drops sharply – tapering?
• 30km rule - Indecon (2022) suggested graduated bands of
support (e.g., 0–10km, 11–20km).
Housing Supports:
• Income limits for social housing/HAP
• Retained if income grows – targeting issue (1/5 in top half of
income distribution.
• Rent contribution increases with income, but usually not to full
cost.
• Exacerbated by multi-year freezes in the income limits (e.g.
2011-2022).
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22 15 June 2023
Conclusions
• A variety of cliff edges exists in the Irish tax-
benefit system.
• Individuals may face multiple cliff edges.
• These can create work disincentives or
inequities between similar groups.
• COTW recommends removing cliff edges.
• Possible for most of the cliff edges identified,
harder for non-cash benefits such as the
medical card.
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23 15 June 2023
Additional Slides
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24 15 June 2023
Housing Supports
• Income limit exists for those wishing to apply for social housing.
• This helps to avoid work disincentives as an individual can earn more and will
not have their rental support removed entirely.
• However, the increasing contribution the individual makes is based on
paying a proportion of their income and not a proportion of the market rent.
• This generally means that the renter does not end up paying the full rental
cost of the property.
• The targeting, or lack thereof, of housing supports is highlighted in Doolan et
al. (2022) – almost one-fifth of supported renters are in the top half of the
income distribution, while many lower-income renters receive no state
support for their housing costs.
• The existence of a threshold above which individuals cannot apply for social
housing or HAP is exacerbated by multi-year freezes in the income limit.
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25 15 June 2023
PRSI CLIFF EDGE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000
PRSI
liability
Annual
income
after
USC/PRSI
Annual earnings
Income after USC and PRSI PRSI liability
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@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
26 15 June 2023
USC cliff edge
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
12,000
13,000
14,000
12,000 13,000 14,000
USC
liability
Annual
income
after
USC
Annual earnings
Income after USC USC liability
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27 15 June 2023
PRSI Reforms
Bands Rate (%)
Current PRSI
If earnings > €352 (EE) or > €96.15 (SE) per
week…
All earnings 4
Reform 1: Remove cliff edge, maintain rates and reduce 0% threshold
Applied to all weekly earnings…
€0 – €32.45 (EE or SE) 0
>€32.45 (EE or SE) 4
Reform 2: Remove cliff edge, increase rates and maintain 0% threshold
Applied to all weekly earnings…
€0 – €352 (EE) or €0 - €96.15 (SE) 0
>€352 (EE) or >€96.15 (SE) 5.79
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28 15 June 2023
USC Reforms
Bands (€) Rates (%)
Current policy
If earnings greater than €13,000…
0–12,012 0.5
12,012.01–22,920 2
22,920.01–70,044 4.5
70,044.01 + 8
SE income > €100,000 11
Reform 1: Remove cliff edge, maintain rates and reduce 0% threshold
0–975 0
975.01–12,012 0.5
12,012.01–22,920 2
22,920.01–70,044 4.5
70,044+ 8
SE income > €100,000 11
Reform 2: Remove cliff edge, increase all rates and maintain 0% threshold
0–13,000 0
13,000.01–22,920 2.2
22,920.01–70,044 4.7
70,044.01 + 8.2
SE income > €100,000 11.2

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Cliff edges in the Irish tax-benefit system

  • 1. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie Budget Perspectives 2024 DATE 15th June 2023 VENUE The Royal College of Physicians, No.6 Kildare Street, Dublin 2, D02 E434
  • 2. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie Cliff Edges in the Irish Tax- Benefit System Michael Doolan Claire Keane Budget Perspectives 2023 15 June 2023
  • 3. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 3 15 June 2023 Introduction • Trade-offs exist in protecting those on lower incomes and ensuring an adequate incentive to work. • Supports that assist those on low incomes can also disincentivise work, generally they therefore get withdrawn as income rises. • Cliff edges in the tax-benefit system – points where tax or PRSI liabilities rise, or benefits are withdrawn, sharply – can disincentivise employment or working more.
  • 4. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 4 15 June 2023 Introduction • Research has shown that individuals adjust their behaviour when faced with such points. • The OECD has highlighted some cliff edges in the Irish tax-benefit system (Browne et al., 2018) • The Commission on Taxation and Welfare (2022) recommends that ‘cliff edges in the taxation and welfare system should be removed’. • What such cliff edges exist in the Irish system?
  • 5. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 5 15 June 2023 Taxation and Social Insurance System
  • 6. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 6 15 June 2023 PRSI and USC • Both PRSI and USC have a cliff edge whereby a small increase in gross income results in a larger drop in net income. • Driven by the fact that both have a ‘threshold’(€352 per week PRSI; 13k p.a. USC) below which no PRSI/USC liability exists. Once threshold is crossed the entire income becomes liable for the charge. • This can distort behaviour e.g. Hargaden and Roantree (2019), using administrative income receipt data, find a clustering of incomes just below the PRSI liability threshold.
  • 7. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 7 15 June 2023 PRSI 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 PRSI liability Annual income after USC and PRSI Annual earnings Income after USC and PRSI Income after PRSI/USC (no PRSI credit) PRSI liability PRSI liability (no PRSI credit)
  • 8. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 8 15 June 2023 PRSI and USC Reforms We examine two (revenue neutral) reforms in the case of both PRSI and USC: PRSI (weekly): • Reform 1: €0 – €32 : 0% ; >€32: 4% • Reform 2: €0 – €352: 0% ; >€352: 5.8% USC (annual): • Reform 1: €0-975: 0% ; >975: current rates • Reform 2: €0-13k: 0% ; >13k: +.02 p.p. on current rates
  • 9. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 9 15 June 2023 Distributional impact of PRSI Reforms
  • 10. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 10 15 June 2023 Distributional impact of USC reforms
  • 11. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 11 15 June 2023 Distributional impact of USC reforms
  • 12. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 12 15 June 2023 Income Tax • Income tax system does not have a cliff edge, bands of income can have a 0%/20%/40% tax liability. • One group faces a quicker rise in taxation than others however – secondary earners in married couples. • Due to the fact that the tax system is only partly individualised – partial sharing of the SRB and tax credits. • Disincentive for 2nd earners in married couples to enter employment. Doorley (2018) found the move in 2000 from a joint taxation system to the current partly individualised system led to a 5/6 p.p rise in the participation rates of married women.
  • 13. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 13 15 June 2023 Additional income tax liability by earnings 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 Household additional income tax Earnings of secondary earner Single Secondary earner (partner - 90k)
  • 14. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 14 15 June 2023 Social Welfare System
  • 15. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 15 15 June 2023 Social Welfare Cliff Edges • Most means-tested welfare payments have a gradual withdrawal. • ‘Four-in-seven’ rule: those working part-time can receive JSA, at a pro-rata rate if unemployed for 4/7 consecutive days +. Two lower-income individuals working part-time can have different JSA entitlements depending on their workdays. This requirement was not included in the JST payment - ‘would allow you to work mornings only while your child or children are in school’ (www.gov.ie) • Working Family Payment is a weekly tax-free payment for employees with at least one child. Only available to an individual working at least 38 hours per fortnight. This issue of a lack of in- work support for those on low pay is heightened by the four-in- seven rule.
  • 16. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 16 15 June 2023 Other Benefits
  • 17. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 17 15 June 2023 National Childcare Scheme • NCS provides hourly subsidies for Tusla-registered childcare for children between the ages of 6 months and 15 years. • Means – tested and universal element. • The scheme specifies a lower income limit, below which the max subsidy can be received and an upper limit whereby only the universal subsidy can be received. • The rate of withdrawal therefore rises as the number of children increases.
  • 18. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 18 15 June 2023 Doorley et al (2019)
  • 19. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 19 15 June 2023 Medical Cards • Most medical cards are means tested. • Harder to tackle this cliff edge. • 2005 introduction of GP-Visit cards; retained card; discretionary cards. 100% social welfare rule: If an individual’s assessable income is above the income limit and all of this income comes from social welfare, they will receive a medical card. • Creates a work disincentive • Creates horizontal inequity • Heighted by a failure to increase/index income limits – static since 2005.
  • 20. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 20 15 June 2023 Medical card income limits/SW rates 2005-2023 Under 70s (net income) – 2005-2023 € Single person living alone aged up to 65 184 Single person living alone aged 66 and over 201.50 Single person living with family aged up to 65 164 Single person living with family aged 66 and over 173.50 2005 (€) 2023 (€) % Change 2005– 2023 Jobseeker’s Benefit (JSB) /Jobseeker’s Allowance 25+ (JSA)/ Disability Allowance (DA) Personal rate 148.80 220 48%
  • 21. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 21 15 June 2023 Student Grants and Housing Supports 3rd Level Grants: • Bands exists so that as parental income rises by a small amount, grant entitlement drops sharply – tapering? • 30km rule - Indecon (2022) suggested graduated bands of support (e.g., 0–10km, 11–20km). Housing Supports: • Income limits for social housing/HAP • Retained if income grows – targeting issue (1/5 in top half of income distribution. • Rent contribution increases with income, but usually not to full cost. • Exacerbated by multi-year freezes in the income limits (e.g. 2011-2022).
  • 22. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 22 15 June 2023 Conclusions • A variety of cliff edges exists in the Irish tax- benefit system. • Individuals may face multiple cliff edges. • These can create work disincentives or inequities between similar groups. • COTW recommends removing cliff edges. • Possible for most of the cliff edges identified, harder for non-cash benefits such as the medical card.
  • 23. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 23 15 June 2023 Additional Slides
  • 24. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 24 15 June 2023 Housing Supports • Income limit exists for those wishing to apply for social housing. • This helps to avoid work disincentives as an individual can earn more and will not have their rental support removed entirely. • However, the increasing contribution the individual makes is based on paying a proportion of their income and not a proportion of the market rent. • This generally means that the renter does not end up paying the full rental cost of the property. • The targeting, or lack thereof, of housing supports is highlighted in Doolan et al. (2022) – almost one-fifth of supported renters are in the top half of the income distribution, while many lower-income renters receive no state support for their housing costs. • The existence of a threshold above which individuals cannot apply for social housing or HAP is exacerbated by multi-year freezes in the income limit.
  • 25. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 25 15 June 2023 PRSI CLIFF EDGE 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 PRSI liability Annual income after USC/PRSI Annual earnings Income after USC and PRSI PRSI liability
  • 26. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 26 15 June 2023 USC cliff edge 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 12,000 13,000 14,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 USC liability Annual income after USC Annual earnings Income after USC USC liability
  • 27. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 27 15 June 2023 PRSI Reforms Bands Rate (%) Current PRSI If earnings > €352 (EE) or > €96.15 (SE) per week… All earnings 4 Reform 1: Remove cliff edge, maintain rates and reduce 0% threshold Applied to all weekly earnings… €0 – €32.45 (EE or SE) 0 >€32.45 (EE or SE) 4 Reform 2: Remove cliff edge, increase rates and maintain 0% threshold Applied to all weekly earnings… €0 – €352 (EE) or €0 - €96.15 (SE) 0 >€352 (EE) or >€96.15 (SE) 5.79
  • 28. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie 28 15 June 2023 USC Reforms Bands (€) Rates (%) Current policy If earnings greater than €13,000… 0–12,012 0.5 12,012.01–22,920 2 22,920.01–70,044 4.5 70,044.01 + 8 SE income > €100,000 11 Reform 1: Remove cliff edge, maintain rates and reduce 0% threshold 0–975 0 975.01–12,012 0.5 12,012.01–22,920 2 22,920.01–70,044 4.5 70,044+ 8 SE income > €100,000 11 Reform 2: Remove cliff edge, increase all rates and maintain 0% threshold 0–13,000 0 13,000.01–22,920 2.2 22,920.01–70,044 4.7 70,044.01 + 8.2 SE income > €100,000 11.2