The document discusses key concepts in demography including population growth rates, fertility rates, and factors influencing population trends. It notes that world population grew slowly until 1800 but has accelerated since then. Several South Asian countries now rank among the most populous globally. Factors like education, family planning services, and changes in marriage patterns have contributed to declining fertility rates in many countries. Common metrics used to measure fertility include crude birth rate, total fertility rate, and age-specific fertility rates. India's population growth rate increased in the early 20th century as death rates fell faster than birth rates.

1. DEMOGRAPHY
Migration, Family size, Growth rate,
Fertility cycle
Presented by
Dr. Chetan Sharma

2. • DEMOGRAPHY- scientific study of human
population
• Focus on- change in population size,
composition of population, distribution of
population.
• Data source of demography-population
census, National sample surveys, Registration
of vital events, Adhoc demographic studies.

3. • DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE-
• HIGH stationary- India(till 1920)
• Early expanding-Africa
• Late expanding - India
• Low stationary- uk,denmark,sweden,belgium
• Declining - Germany, Hungry

4. • It required all human history up to year 1800
for world population to reach 1 million.
• 2nd billion by 130 years
• 3rd billion by 30 years
• 4th billion by 15 years
• 5th billion by 12 years
• It is expected to reach 8 billion by 2025

5. • 3 countries of SEAR-
India(17.56%),Indonesia(3.48%),Bangladesh(2.
38%) are the most populous ten countries of
the world.
• World’s birth rate fell below 30:1st time in
1975&had declined to 20during 2007.
• Ex-Singapore 23 per 1000 to 8 & Thailand
from 37 to 15

6. • Key factors in declining population rates-
• Government attitude toward growth
• Education
• Increased availability of contraception
• Extension of family planning services
• Change in marriage patterns

7. CRUDE BIRTH RATE
• Number of live births per 1000 estimated mid year
population, in a given year and geographical area.
Crude Birth rate =
Estimated mid year population
Total No. of live births during the year
1000×
CBR (India)= 22.1 2010
(Rajasthan) = 24.4 2012

8. Crude Death Rate (CDR)
 Number of deaths per 1000 estimated mid year
population, in a given year and geographical area.
Crude Birth rate =
Estimated mid year population
Total No. of deaths during the year
1000×
CDR (India) = 7.2 2010
(Rajasthan) = 24.4 AHS 2012
8

9. Growth Rate
Growth rate = CBR - CDR
Annual Growth Rate (India) = 1.6% 2011
9

10. • Sex ratio
• Dependency ratio
• Age structure- age pyramid, spindle shape
Dr Jai P Pankaj 10

11. FAMILY SIZE
Dr Jai P Pankaj 11

12. Family Size:
In general Total No. of persons in a family.
In Demography Total No. of children a women has
born at a point in time.
Completed Family Size:
 Total No. of children born by a women during her
child bearing age.
INTRODUCTION
12

13. • Age at marriage.
• Duration of married life & cohabitation
• Spacing of children
• Education
• Economic status
• Caste and religion
• Nutrition
• Family planning
FACTORS AFFECTING FAMILY SIZE
13

14. DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY:-
1. Age of marriage:-
-Female marriage postponed from 16 to 20-21
years – birth will decrease by 20-30 %
-Childe marriage restraint act 1978- raises the
girls legal age-18 years.
-National average of effective marriage- 21 years.
-Exception are of rural areas.
2.Duration of married life:-
-10-25 % of all births occur with in 1-5 years of
married life.
-50-55 % with in 5-15 years.

15. 3.Spacing of children:-
Significant impact on the general reduction
in fertility rate.
4.Education:-
Inversely association between education
and fertility.
No education------------------- 3.5
<5 years complete------------2.45
5-7 years complete------------2.51
8-9 years comlete--------------2.23
10-11 years compllete--------2.08
12 or more years complete-1.80

16. 5.Economic status:-
Inverse relation.
Economic development is best contraceptive.
Wealth index:-
Lowest----------------3.89
Second----------------3.17
Middle----------------2.58
Fourth-----------------2.24
Highest----------------1.78

17. 6. Caste and religion:-
Muslim--------------------------3.09,
Hindus---------------------------2.65,
Christian-------------------------2.35,
Sikh------------------------------ 1.96
Buddhist/Neo-budhist------ 1.96
Jain------------------------------- 2.02
Other---------------------------- 2.85
Scheduled caste-------------- 2.92
Schedule Tribe---------------- 3.12
Other backwards class------ 2.75
Others-------------------------- 2.35
Do not know------------------ 1.98

18. 7. Nutrition-
Well feed societies low fertility-An indirect
effect.
8.Family planning:-
Key factor in declining fertility.
9.Other factors:-
-Physical, biological, social and cultural factors.
-Place of women in society ,
-value of children in society,
-breast feeding custom ,
-industrialization,
-Urbanization –Urban- 2.06, Rural-2.98

19. FERTILITY
RELATED STATISTICS

20. Fertility or Natality:-
-Actual bearing of children.
-Voluntary biological process.
-Varies between individuals depending
upon their reproductive behavior.
-Fertility of a women is influenced by
various social and biological factors.
-Average woman in India can give rise
6-7 children. Total fertility rate of India-2.68
Fecundity:- Child bearing capacity.
-Inherent physiological capacity.
-Average fecundity of Indian

21. 1. Birth Rate
Number of live births during
the year
Birth Rate ------------------------------------------------ X 1000
Estimated mid- year population
The birth rate is an unsatisfactory measure of
fertility because the total population is not exposed to
child bearing.

22. 2. General Fertility Rate (GFR)
Number of live births in an area
during the year
GFR = -----------------------------------------------------X 1000
Mid-year female population age 15-44
(or 49) in the same area in same year
General fertility rate is a better measure of fertility than the
crude birth rate because the denominator is restricted to the
number of women in the child- bearing age, rather than the
whole population.

23. 3. General marital Fertility Rate (GMFR)
Number of live births in a year
GMFR = --------------------------------------------- X 1000
Mid-year Married female population in
the age- group year
4. Age- specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
Number of live births to particular
age- group of women in a year
ASFR = --------------------------------------------- X 1000
Mid-year female population of
the same age- group

24. 5. Age- specific Marital Fertility Rate (ASMFR)
Number of live births in a
particular age- group in a year
ASMFR = ----------------------------------------- X 1000
Mid-year Married female population
of the same age- group
6. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
( if 5 year age group is used )
45-49
5 X ASFR
15-19
TFR = -------------------------------
1000

25. 7. Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR)
( if 5 year age group is used )
45-49
5 X ASMFR
15-19
TMFR = -------------------------------
1000
8. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) 15-44 or 49 years
( if 5 year age group is used )
45-49
5 X ASFR for female live births
15-19
GRR = -------------------------------
1000

26. 9. Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is defined as
the number of daughters a newborn girl will
bear during her lifetime assuming fixed age-
specific fertility and mortality rates. If the NRR
is less than 1, then the reproductive
performance of the population is said to be
below replacement level.
10.Child- Women Ratio :-Number of children
0-4 years of age per 1000 women of child-
bearing age, usually defined as 15-44 or 49
years of age.

27. 11. Pregnancy Rate
Ratio of number of pregnancies in a year to
married women in the ages 15-44 (or 49)
years.
12. Abortion Rate
The annual number of all types of
abortions, usually per 1000 women of child-
bearing age (usually defined as age 15-44) (22).
13. Abortion Ratio
By dividing the number of abortions
performed during a particular time period by
the number of live births over the same period

28. 14.Marriage rates:_-
No. of marriages in the year
Crude Marriage Rate =------------------------ X 1000
Mid-year population
General Marriage Rate :-
No. marriages within one year
-------------------------------------------- X 1000
Number of unmarried persons age
15-49 years

29. Fertility Trends:-
Fertility in India is beginning to decline.
The crude birth rate about 49/1000 during 1901-11
about 25/1000 in 2002,
21.6/1000 in 2012.
The total fertility rate has declined from
3.6 in 1991 to 2.4 in 2012.
The TFR in rural areas has declined from
5.4 in 1971 to 2.6 in 2012,
decline in urban areas has been from
4.1 in 1971 to 1.8 in 2012
In bigger states it varies from 1.8 in Kerala to 3.3 in
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar .

30. HIGH BIRTH RATE :
1 Universality of marriage
2. Early marriage
3. Early puberty
4. Low standard of living
5. Low level of literacy
6. Traditional customs and habits
7. Absence of family planning habit.

31. DECLINING DEATH RATE :
1.Absence of natural checks
2.Mass control of diseases, e.g., smallpox, plague,
cholera, malaria etc.
3.Advances in medical science
4.Better health facilities
5.Impact of national health programs
6.Improvements in food supply
7.International aid in several directions
8.Development of social consciousness among the
masse
Further rapid declined in India's death rate may
not continue in future.

32. Growth Rate :
-Prior to 1921, the population of India grew at a slow rate.
Due to the operation of natural checks .
-After 1921, the “great divide”,
Death rate declined more steeply than the birth rate.
-Consequently,
There was a net gain in births over deaths,
leading to rapid growth in population, which rose from
1.25 per cent in 1951 to
1.96 in 1961,
2.20 in 1971,
2.22 in 1981,
2.14 in 1991,
1.93 in 2001 and
1.64 in 2011.