Like it or loathe it, as SEOs we often find ourselves being asked to explain rankings, especially for highly visible head terms but I’ve noticed in the last few years that for these most competitive terms, the normal rules don’t always apply. In this session, I'll talk through new data, examples, and real world tests to explore the hypotheses that Google is increasingly going beyond our normal understanding of ranking factors.

1. The Two-Tiered SERP
SearchLove Boston 2019
Ranking for the Most Competitive Terms

2. @THCapper
The Dreaded Conversation
@THCapper

3. What are your views on
Donald Trump?

4. Why aren’t we first for
{head term}
?!
- your boss, every week

5. @THCapper@THCapper

6. @THCapper@THCapper

7. @THCapper
I was missing something
@THCapper

8. @THCapper@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-
links-searchlove-san-diego-2017

9. @THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-
links-searchlove-san-diego-2017 @THCapper
Yes,
it does

10. @THCapper
I had part of the answer
@THCapper

11. At the competitive, data-rich top
end, links mean increasingly little
Me, February 2017

12. @THCapper@THCapper
Strength of correlation:
Domain Authority & Rankings
February
2017
October 2018
0.07
0.02

13. SEO in 2018 is winning at user
testing, brand awareness, and
perception
Me, February 2017

14. @THCapper
I was still wrong
@THCapper

15. @THCapper
What if:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors
?
@THCapper

16. @THCapper@THCapper
Ranking
Factors

17. @THCapper@THCapper
Ranking
Factors
Not Ranking
Factors?

18. @THCapper
The Two-
Tiered SERP
@THCapper
Ranking
Factors
Not Ranking
Factors?

19. @THCapper
Evidence
Explanation
Implications
@THCapper
Agenda

20. Back to basics:
Why might a site rank well?

21. @THCapper
Google is changing
(it’s a cliché)
@THCapper

22. Google in 2017:
31,584 experiments
2,453 search changes
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html

23. @THCapperhttps://moz.com/blog/how-often-does-google-update-its-algorithm

24. @THCapperhttps://moz.com/blog/seo-back-to-basics

25. @THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical

26. @THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical Targeting

27. @THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical
Links
Targeting

28. @THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical
Links
Targeting
Hygiene factors

29. @THCapper
2004 Reasonable surfer
2011 Panda
2012 Penguin
2014 Pigeon
2015 Mobilegeddon
@THCapper

30. @THCapper
Building on the old model
@THCapper

31. @THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/DistilledSEO/searchlove-boston-2017-will-critchlow-
building-robot-allegiances

32. @THCapper
You sucked
@THCapper

33. @THCapper@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/DistilledSEO/searchlove-boston-2017-will-critchlow-
building-robot-allegiances

34. @THCapper
I scored 0%
@THCapper

35. @THCapper
I scored 0%
...repeatedly
@THCapper

36. I’m a frog
&
Google is a saucepan

37. @THCapper
We are asking the wrong questions
Basic technical
Links
Targeting
Hygiene factors

38. Evidence

39. @THCapper@THCapper
https://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-
links-searchlove-san-diego-2017

40. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://www.slideshare.net/THCapper/does-google-still-need-
links-searchlove-san-diego-2017

41. @THCapper
Strength of correlation:
Domain Authority & Rankings
May 2015
(Moz)
February
2017 (Me)
0.07
0.26

42. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT

43. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results

44. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone

45. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
May 2015 Feb 2017, Oct 2018, May 2019

46. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
May 2015 Feb 2017, Oct 2018, May 2019
Mean Spearman correlations Mean Spearman correlations

47. @THCapper
Moz Study My Study
17,600 queries from KWP 4,900 queries from STAT
Top 50 results Top 10 results
Desktop only (?) Desktop & Smartphone
May 2015 Feb 2017, Oct 2018, May 2019
Mean Spearman correlations Mean Spearman correlations

48. @THCapper
Links are less important
in the top 10?
@THCapper

49. @THCapper
I need a fairer comparison
@THCapper

50. @THCapper
Hypothesis:
The higher you rank,
the less “ranking factors” matter
@THCapper

51. @THCapper
Prediction:
We’ll see a weaker
LRD & ranking correlation
in positions 1-5
@THCapper

52. @THCapper@THCapper
0.036
6-10

53. @THCapper@THCapper
0.028
0.036
1-56-10

54. @THCapper@THCapper
1-5
0.028
0.036
6-10
0.067
0.053
Branded Search
Volume
Linking Root
Domains

55. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://www.stonetemple.com/link-as-a-ranking-factor/

56. @THCapper@THCapper
Top 50 vs. Top 10
0.33
0.29
DA of
linking
URLS
Links
0.32
PA of
linking
URLShttps://www.stonetemple.co
m/link-as-a-ranking-factor/

57. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://www.stonetemple.co
m/link-as-a-ranking-factor/
Top 50 vs. Top 10
0.33
0.29
DA of
linking
URLS
Links
0.32
PA of
linking
URLS
0.06
0.11
DABranded
Search
Volume
0.05
LRDs

58. @THCapper
Hypothesis:
The higher you rank,
the less “ranking factors” matter
@THCapper

59. @THCapper
Hypothesis:
The higher you rank,
the less “ranking factors” matter
@THCapper

60. @THCapper
Caveat:
We only looked
at one factor
@THCapper

61. @THCapper
Caveat:
We only looked
at one factor
@THCapper
(& one potential factor)

62. @THCapper@THCapper
Caveat:
We lack a control

63. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://moz.com/blog/seo-ranking-factors-and-correlation

64. @THCapper
Theory:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors
@THCapper

65. @THCapper@THCapper
Evidence:
1. Links less relevant in the top 5

66. @THCapper@THCapper

67. @THCapper
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day
Site
1 Interflora
2 Flying Flowers
3 M&S
4 Serenata
5 NextFlowers
6 eFlorist
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist
9 Appleyard

68. @THCapper
Ubiquitous offline brands

69. @THCapper
Lesser known, online-only brands

70. @THCapper
Fairly well recognized, primarily online

71. @THCapper
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day
Site Specialist?
1 Interflora Yes
2 Flying Flowers Yes
3 M&S No
4 Serenata Yes
5 NextFlowers Ish
6 eFlorist Yes
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist Ish
9 Appleyard Yes

72. @THCapper
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day
Site Specialist? DA
1 Interflora Yes 53
2 Flying Flowers Yes 46
3 M&S No 82
4 Serenata Yes 56
5 NextFlowers Ish 40
6 eFlorist Yes 44
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist Ish 42
9 Appleyard Yes 44

73. @THCapper
Site Specialist? DA BSV
1 Interflora Yes 53 212,000
2 Flying Flowers Yes 46 24,000
3 M&S No 82 3,060,000
4 Serenata Yes 56 5,000
5 NextFlowers Ish 40 4,850,000
6 eFlorist Yes 44 16,000
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist Ish 42 924,000
9 Appleyard Yes 44 1,700
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day

74. @THCapper
Site Specialist? DA BSV
1 Interflora Yes 53 212,000
2 Flying Flowers Yes 46 24,000
3 M&S No 82 3,060,000
4 Serenata Yes 56 5,000
5 NextFlowers Ish 40 4,850,000
6 eFlorist Yes 44 16,000
7 & 8 WaitroseFlorist Ish 42 924,000
9 Appleyard Yes 44 1,700
Rankings 2 weeks before Mother’s Day

75. @THCapper
Nice rankings...
shame if something
happened to them.
@THCapper

76. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

77. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

78. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

79. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

80. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

81. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

82. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

83. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

84. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

85. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

86. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

87. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

88. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

89. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

90. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

91. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

92. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
Offline brands:
Doing pretty well

93. @THCapper
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers
Offline brands:
Doing pretty well

94. @THCapper
Eflorist & Serenata:
Strong domains you never heard of, the “SEO” winners
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

95. @THCapper
Why is that site outranking me?
Basic technical
Links
Targeting
Hygiene factors

96. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on
Keyword: Mother’s day flowers

97. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on

98. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on

99. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on

100. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on

101. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on

102. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on

103. @THCapper
Flying Flowers & Appleyard
Small brands, small domains, clung on

104. @THCapper
Flying Flowers
Simple, price-orientated, emphasis on free delivery

105. @THCapper
Site DA BSV Specialist? Change
WaitroseFlorist 42 924,000 Ish +7
M&S 82 3,060,000 No +4
Winners

106. @THCapper
Losers
Site DA BSV Specialist? Change
eFlorist 44 16,000 Yes -5
Serenata 56 5,000 Yes -16

107. @THCapper
Hangers on
Site DA BSV Specialist? Change
Interflora 53 212,000 Yes -2
Flying Flowers 46 24,000 Yes -2
NextFlowers 40 4,850,000 Ish 0
Appleyard 44 1,700 Yes 0

108. @THCapper@THCapper
Evidence:
1. Links less relevant in the top 5
2. SERPs change when they become
high volume

109. @THCapper
Money where my
mouth is
@THCapper

110. @THCapper
Valentine’s Day strategy
1. Free delivery
2. Same day / free delivery
focus in meta data
3. Push cheaper, postable
products

111. @THCapper
Valentine’s Day results: Top keywords
Keyword Change in 14-day run-up
Flower delivery +2
Flowers +2
Spring flowers -
Valentine’s card messages +2
Flower delivery UK +2
Send flowers UK -
Roses +1

112. @THCapper
Mother’s Day 2019 pushback
1. No more free delivery
2. No more letterbox flowers
3. Otherwise identical

113. @THCapper
Mother’s Day 2019 results: Top keywords
Keyword Change in 14-day run-up
Flower delivery -2
Send flowers UK +1
Flower delivery UK -4
Flowers -5
Send flowers -3
Order flowers online -2
Flowers UK -1

114. @THCapper@THCapper
Theory:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors

115. @THCapper@THCapper
Evidence:
1. Links less relevant in the top 5
2. SERPs change when they become
high volume
3. Pricing affects rankings

116. @THCapper
Intent
@THCapper

117. @THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%

118. @THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%

119. @THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%

120. @THCapper
Medic update: Winners
Site Visibility
NHS +4.6%
WebMB +6.5%
Healthline +3.5%
Bupa +4.9%
Cosmopolitan +4.6%
Elle +3.6%

121. @THCapper
-20% traffic
@THCapper

122. Revenue impact?

123. @THCapper

124. @THCapper

125. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://www.distilled.net/resources/john-mueller-at-brightonseo/

126. @THCapper@THCapper
Theory:
Head terms are no longer
about ranking factors

127. @THCapper@THCapper
Evidence:
1. Links less relevant in the top 5
2. SERPs change when they become
high volume
3. Pricing affects rankings
4. Google is re-assessing intents for
established keywords

128. Explanation

129. @THCapper
Why is this
happening?
@THCapper

130. @THCapper
Let’s practice
some empathy
@THCapper

131. “what percent of users clicked
through a picture-link and then
quickly clicked back”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html

132. @THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1: Pogo-stick rate

133. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://moz.com/blog/misuses-4-google-analytics-metrics-debunked

134. “whether there was a significant
increase in the time until they made
their first interaction”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html

135. @THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction

136. @THCapper@THCapper
Do links get you this?
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction

137. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://www.distilled.net/resources/john-mueller-at-brightonseo/

138. @THCapper
Reminder: Links are a proxy
for popularity & trust
@THCapper

139. @THCapper
Potential factors:
- Price
- Aesthetics
- Short-sighted interstitials
@THCapper

140. What should you do about it?

141. Don’t tweet this:
@THCapper

142. The fundamentals still work

143. @THCapper
“Online”
@THCapper

144. @THCapper@THCapper
Removed “online”
Added back
“online”

145. @THCapper
Optimize for
Google’s metrics
@THCapper

146. @THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction

147. @THCapper
What impacts
pogo sticking?
@THCapper

148. @THCapper
https://youtu.be/At51X-aZ4Y4
First Impressions

149. @THCapper
Price

150. @THCapper
Pop-ups

151. @THCapper
Pagespeed
https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/feature/mobile/

152. @THCapper@THCapper
KPI 1:
KPI 2:
Pogo-stick rate
Time to SERP interaction

153. @THCapper
What impacts SERP
behaviour?
@THCapper

154. @THCapper
MetaData

155. @THCapper@THCapperhttps://www.distilled.net/resources/ppc-seo-synergy-how-to-find-efficiencies-between-the-two-channels/

156. @THCapper
Brand

157. @THCapper
“But I can’t do anything
about brand”
@THCapper

158. @THCapper

159. @THCapper

160. @THCapper
Or just run ads!
@THCapper

161. @THCapper
What about existing
customers?
@THCapper

162. @THCapper
Don’t piss people off
@THCapper

163. @THCapper
How can I measure this?
● Branded search
● Social following
● Survey data
https://www.distilled.net/resources/measuring-brand-awareness/

164. @THCapper
What about intent?
@THCapper

165. @THCapper
Be ready
@THCapper

166. @THCapper@THCapper

167. Final Takeaways

168. @THCapper@THCapper
Takeaways:
1. Traditional ranking factors
are not enough
2. Inherit Google’s KPIs
3. But don’t abandon the
foundations just yet

169. Thank You