4th Industrial Revolution & learning Revolution: Korea’s Next Transformation

1. Ju-Ho Lee
KDI School of Public Policy and Management
4th Industrial Revolution & learning Revolution:
Korea’s Next Transformation
15th June, 2017 (HCM Academy)

2. Contents
1. 4th Industrial Revolution
2. From Fast-Follower to First-Mover
3. Innovation Ecosystem
4. Learning Revolution

3. 1. the Fourth Industrial Revolution
• the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is expected to
reach a tipping point around 2025,
• will clearly separate the winners from the losers among
countries.
• According to the UBS report presented in the Davos
Forum,
• not only is Korea lagging far behind in the readiness
for the Fourth Industrial Revolution among the ‘four
dragons’ of East Asia,
• but also it is assessed to be ranked at the world’s 42nd
(UBS, 2016).

4. Industrial Revolutions
Source: UBS (2016)

5. Source: Schwab (2016)

6. Source: Schwab (2016)

7. Relative Ranking from World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report
Using Fourth Industrial Revolution Categories
Source: UBS (2016)
Flexible
Labor
Skill
Level
Adoptiv
e
Educatio
n
Infra Legal
Protection
s
Overall
Impact
Singapore 2 1 9 4 9 5
Hong Kon
g
3 13 27 5 10 12
Taiwan 22 14 11 20 31 20
Korea 83 23 19 20 62 42
China 37 68 31 57 64 51
Japan 21 21 5 12 18 15
U.S. 4 6 4 14 23 10
U.K. 5 18 12 6 10 10
Germany 28 17 6 10 19 16
France 51 25 18 12 31 28

8. Disappearing Jobs?
• Within next 10 to 20 years, about 47% of all jobs in the
U.S. are threatened by automation (Frey and Osborne,
2013).
• Number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. almost halved
from 21 million to 12 million during the past 35 years.
In contrast, the number of smart labors in high-tech sector such
as Internet, Scientific R&D, Pharmaceutical, Software have
increased (Moretti, 2012).

9. Demise of an American Giant
Source: Moretti (2012)

10. Hollowing Out of the American Labor Market
Source: Moretti

11. Smart Labor in U.S.
Source: Moretti (2012)

12. Is Korea lagging behind the Fourth Industrial Revolution
• Shipbuilding, steel, petrochemical industries are unable to
secure competitiveness in the saturated market
• Although Korea still maintain competitiveness in areas of
semiconductors, displays, automobiles, machines, mobile
phones, and home appliances, it is facing market saturation
while countries such as China is rapidly catching up.

13. Is Korea lagging behind the Fourth Industrial Revolution
• In the new industries such as renewable energy, ICT
convergence, bio-health, advanced new materials, high-end
consumer goods, many Korean companies are showing
potentials.
• However, Korea has yet to secure any competitiveness in
the Fourth Industrial Revolution areas such as AI, SW, Big
Data, and Driverless Car.

14. Portfolio of Korean Industries
Source: Yoo (2016)

15. 2. From Fast-Follower To First Mover
• To achieve continuous creation of high-tech jobs and
growth, a transformation from fast-follower to first-
mover is pivotal.
 Need to take a step further from being good at
making a product developed by others to create entirely
new products, industries or platforms.
 Many companies in Korea are fast-followers with
execution capabilities but are unable to become first-
movers with conceptual design capabilities.

16. Execution & Conceptual Design Capabilities
• Capacity to interpret a given blue
print and to materialize it physica
lly using resources
• Easy to transfer as they are manu
alized in many cases, and there e
xists learning-by-doing
• Efficiency gains (speed and costs)
through repeats
• When developing countries recei
ve skill educations based on man
uals during the early developmen
t period, they absorb them easily
most of the time.
• With accumulating experience, d
eveloping countries can make eff
iciency improvements themselves
, making it possible to raise their
execution capabilities themselves.
• Capabilities to define a concept
of a product and a service firstly,
to draw a picture in a blank pape
r, and to make originals
• The core of the conceptual desig
n capabilities is the scaling up. It
is the core capability of global ch
ampion companies and is the pre
-requisite of open innovations.
• Because conceptual design capab
ilities have no manual and becau
se they are accumulated in perso
n/organizational culture as creati
ve tacit knowledge, it is impossib
le to transfer
• The only way to build conceptual
design capabilities is through lear
ning-by-building; field + learning
-by-doing and endless challenge
s are pre-requisites of generating
originals
Conceptual Design CapabilitiesExecution Capabilities
Source: Lee (2016b)

17. Transformation from Fast Follower to First Mover
• Korea can leap forward as a country leading the Fourth
Industrial Revolution only if it can achieve the transformation
from the fast-follower to the first-mover,
• To this end, first-mover innovation ecosystem is essential.
• Also, Education or Learning needs to change fundamentally.

18. 3. Innovation Ecosystem
• Innovation ecosystem is an evolving system in which
researchers, entrepreneurs, government employees
continuously compete and cooperate from R&D to
industrial innovation
In the fast-follower innovation ecosystem of the past Korea,
companies raised their international competitiveness by relying on
input-driven process and by absorbing skills of developed countries.
However, the first-mover innovation ecosystem requires continuous
creation of new products, platforms, and industries based on high-
risk and high-return research.

19. Virtuous Cycle
Source: Jackson

20. Valley of Death
To sustain the first-mover innovation ecosystem,
• it is important to help start-ups navigate across the
Valley of Death and grow as global companies such as
Google, Facebook, and Uber.
However,
• Korean conglomerates circumvent the Valley of Death
by concentrating their investments in internal research
centers doing applied R&D and by absorbing developed
skills from overseas rather than collaborating with
domestic start-ups and research communities.

21. Valley of Death
출처: Jackson,

22. Interactions among technological stages
• In the first-mover innovation ecosystem,
• basic researches continually act the role of platform
until the last stage of innovation rather than staying afar
from applied researches or from the commercialization
stage of companies.
• Many research universities are being transformed
into central hubs of innovation ecosystem with the
promotion of use-inspired research, entrepreneurship
education, and start-up support.

23. Interacting Technology Stages
출처: PCAST,

24. Transforming the Role of Government
In the fast-follower innovation ecosystem,
• government led the introduction of developed countries’
technologies through government-funded research
institutes or through public enterprises such as POSCO.
In the first-mover innovation ecosystem,
• government should focus on nurturing the ecosystem
letting companies, universities, and government-funded
research institutes to take charge in cooperating and
innovating based on much greater autonomy and
openness.

25. the world’s largest taxi
Company, owns no vehicles
What is happening in business today…
the world’s most popular media
owner, creates no content
Emerging labor company,
does not have hired people
the world’s largest accomodation
provider, owns no real estatethe most valuable retailer,
has no inventory
출처: 이상엽, KAIST

26. 4. Learning Revolution
1. Education for Disappearing Jobs?
2. Need for Learning Revolution
3. Education Diversification Reform
4. Bottom-Up Changes
5. Project-Based Learning
6. Inclusive and Innovative University

27. 4.1. Education for Disappearing Jobs?
• Although Korea has achieved the fastest quantitative
expansion in education, Korean students lose interests in
learning, do not enjoy learning, and are most unhappiest in
the class with long hours of study and private tutoring.
Rapid expansion in higher education has been derived by increases
in enrollment of low-quality universities,
Resulting in salaries of one fourth of 4-year university graduates
that are below the average salaries of high school graduates.
Korean adults’ competencies are very rapidly declining compared to
those in OECD countries.

28. Average Years of Schooling (15-64 old) in Korea, Japan, USA, and
China
Source: Barro, R. & Lee, J. (2010). A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010, NBER WP 15902
http://www.barrolee.com/ (2013.4. 12 retrieved)
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
K 15-64 J 15-64
USA 15-64 China 15-64

29. Korean Students with High Test Scores and Low Interests in Math
[CELLRANGE]
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-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
350 400 450 500 550 600 650
InterestsinMath(higherismore)
Math Scores
Source:: PISA 20012, Lee, Jeong, and Hong (forthcoming)

30. Korean Students with High Test Scores cannot enjoy Science
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-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
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350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600
EnjoymentofScience
(higherismore)
Science Scores
Source PISA 2015, Lee, Jeong, and Hong (forthcoming)

31. Switzerland
Korea
Estonia
Poland
Germany
Japan
Finland Canada NetherlandsAustria
Slovenia
Denmark
Australia PortugalIreland
New ZealandCzech Iceland
FranceUK SpainSwedenItaly
IsraelSlovak
USAGreece
Turkey
Hungary
Chile Mexico
Shanghai-China
Singapore
Hong Kong
Taipei
Macao
Latvia
Russia
Croatia
SerbiaRomania
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
UAE Thailand
UruguayMontenegro
Albania
MalaysiaBrazil
Jordan
Argentina
Colombia
Indonesia
Peru
Qatar350
400
450
500
550
600
50 60 70 80 90 100
Korean Students are Unhappiest in the World despite High Math
Scores
Math Scores
“I feel happy at school”
Percentage of students who report being
happy at school
OECD countries
Partners
source: PISA 2012

32. • According to PISA, Korean students study Math for 9.32 hours per
week, much longer than OECD average(6.83), Finland(5.02)
Korean students study Math at after school programs
including private tutoring for 2.28 hours per week, much longer
than OECD average(1.07), Finland(0.37)
Korean students study Math autonomously including
homework for 2.31 hours per week, much longer than
Finland(1.20 hours)

33. Source: National Business Survey by Statistics Korea, and Educational Yearly Statistics
Note: Teachers in elementary and secondary schools
Number of institutions and Employees in Private Tutoring Business
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
no.ofemployeesorteachers
(x1000)
no.ofinstituions
(x1000)
No. of institutions in private tutoring No. of employees in private tutoring No. of Teachers in Schools

34. Trend for Number of Enrolled Students in Universities Grouped
in Deciles Based on New Entrant Performance (2000-2012)
Source : Lee, Jeong, & Hong (2014)

35. Number of Top-500 Universities in the World by Countries (Shanghai
Ranking Consultancy, 2004-2014)
Note: U.S. is excluded in the above figure (169 universities in 2004 and 146 universities in 2014). China include Hong Kong. The number in
the parenthesis behind country name is changes in the ranks from 2004 to 2014 based on the number of universities in the list.
Source: Lee, Jeong, & Hong (2014)

36. Changes in the Share of 4-Year University Graduates Receiving
Lower Wages than High School Graduates0
.05
.1
.15
.2
.25
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
mean median
Among College Workers (Age<=34)
0
.02.04.06.08
.1
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
mean median
Among Workforce (Age<=34)
Source: Lee, Jeong, & Hong (2014)

37. Numeracy
Literacy Problem
Solving
Korean Adult’s Competencies
Rapidly Declining with Ages
출처: 이주호,최슬기, 2016

38. • Learn to Test Learn to Learn
• Shallow Learning Deep Learning
• Vertical Learning Horizontal Learning
4.2. Need for Learning Revolution

39. 21st Century Skills
• Creativity
• Critical Thinking
• Collaborative Ability
• Communication Skills
• Citizenship
• Character Skills

40. Lifelong Learning
• Mark Zuckerberg sets himself new personal “learning
goals” every year.
• Google’s recruitment focuses on “learning animals” (Eric
Schmidt).
출처: The Economist (2017)

41. 4.3. Education Diversification Reforms (2008-2012)

42. Reinforce Vocational Education
 Meister high schools initiatives
 Strengthen career guidance
(employ new 4,500 career counseling teachers)
 Introduce “Job-first, Diploma-Later” career path
for vocational high school graduates
 Encourage changes in 350 specialized vocational high Schools

43. Teaching and Assessment for Creativity & Character Skills
 Introduce Admission Officer Systems for universities
 Introduce Admission System for Self-directed Learning for
special-purpose high schools
 Revitalize character education to combat school violence
(school sports clubs, student orchestra, social and emotional
learning)
 Introduce smart education (digitalize textbooks)

44. Support Universities that Focus on Teaching and Cooperation
with Industry
 Introduce supporting system for universities that teach well
- University Educational Capacity Enhancement Program
- Advancement for College Education (ACE)
 Introduce supporting system to link universities and companies
- Leaders in Industry-University Cooperation (LINC)
- 2,000 I-U Partnership Professors
- Contract Majors
- World Class Colleges (WCC))

50. Strengthen the Autonomy of Schools
 High School Diversification 300 Initiatives
- autonomous private high schools
- boarding high schools
- autonomous public high schools
 Introduce a system to recruit principals through
open competition

51. Strengthen the Accountability of Schools
 Nation-wide information disclosure on schools
 Pulling students out of underachievement based
on nation-wide assessment of all students
 Evaluate teachers by students, parents, and
colleagues

52. Enhance the Quality of Research Universities
 Governance reforms for national universities
- corporatize SNU
- abolish direct election system of presidents of
national universities
 World Class University (WCU)
- invite 340 foreign scholars to 30 domestic universities
 Double government support for research of university professors
- from 16% (2008) to 32% (2013)
 Establish International Science Business Belt
- Institute of Basic Science (IBS)
- on-campus research centers at KAIST, GIST, DGIST, POSTECH
- Heavy-ion Accelerator

53. Restructuring Universities
 Establish data-based framework for
restructuring universities.
 Set up University Restructuring Committee (URC)
 Announce annual list of universities that are subject to
limited financial support, limited subsidies for
student loans, even to be closed down

54. World Class University (WCU) Initiative

61. Reduce the Burden of Private Tutoring
 Expand After-School Class
 Encourage local communities and industries for
active educational donation
 Education Broadcasting System (EBS) provides
quality CSAT courses
 Regulate through price ceiling and limited hours
of late-night private instruction

62. “Half Burden of Tuition” Initiatives
 Launch National Scholarship Program through
Korea Student Aid Foundation (KOSAF)
 Introduce Income Contingent Loan
 Incentivize universities to reduce student’s burden
of tuition

63. Crisis-Management Strategies
 Building on earlier failed reform efforts
 Obtaining an electoral mandate for education reforms
 Pursuing evidence-based reforms with information disclosure
and solid research
 Engaging teachers by mediating conflicting interests among
teachers
 Transforming small crises into significant reform opportunities

64. Opening-Up Strategies
 Open to industry
 Open to parents
 Open to new players
 Open to countries abroad
 Open to other ministries through “whole-of-government” approach

65. • The problems of rote learning and quantitative assessment
based on multiple choices have reached a crisis level in Korea

66. Teachers are not delivering the reform policies
Science Performance Assessment
Year 4 Class No. Name ( )
1. Write the names of the each parts of this spring balance in ( )
Weighing
Using a spring balanceActivity
Subject No. Date
Evaluator
Performance

67. Salaries and Self-efficacy of Korean Teachers

68. • Policy makers tend to have focused excessively on institutional
changes such as the college entrance system and the national
education curriculum.
• It needs to be questioned whether actual changes in the
classroom became ignored amid such fierce dispute and conflict
over institutional reforms.

69. Bottom-Up
• Establish a framework for new pedagogies into practice
• Establish a system to develop the capacity of teachers’ new
pedagogies
• Support the expansion of new pedagogies among schools
Top-Down
• Strengthen the accountability system for new pedagogies of
teachers
• Pursue gradual changes with consistency in the college
admissions system
• Pursue bold changes in teacher college system

70. • Hope can be found in face-to-face talks with teachers that have
revealed teachers’ desire for change
• Korean students and classrooms have access to an immense
amount of digital knowledge and information.
- Such technology can be a powerful partner for assisting the
changes in teaching and assessment methods.

71. • Project-Based Learning (PBL): Learning that is focused on
projects through student-centered collaboration and teamwork
to solve real problems and tasks

72. Rate of Project-Based Learning Conducted by Teachers (TALIS)
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Korea
Italy
Israel
Japan
Singapore
Croatia
Spain
Belgium(Flanders)
Latvia
CzechRepublic
Finland
France
Estona
Serbia
SlovakRepublic
Poland
Australia
Bulgaria
Sweden
Netherlands
Portugal
Int'lPooled
Romania
Malaysia
Canada(Alberta)
UK(England)
Brazil
Norway
Mexico
Chile
UAE(AbuDhabi)
Denmark
RateofProject-BasedLearning(%)
* Rate of Project-Based Learning: The share of students who take part in
project-based learning either “frequently” or “in all or almost all lessons”.

73. Rate of Project-Based Learning Conducted by Teachers vs. Self-
Efficacy of Teachers (TALIS)
73

74. 74
Project-Based Learning and Teacher Self-Efficacy: OLS Estimates
Note: Lines indicate the 95% confidence interval.

75. PBL Experiment in Daegu
Multi-Year Experiments
• 2015 Fall Semester: 2 schools (treatment) + 3 schools (control)
• 2016-2017: 6 schools (treatment) + 6 schools (control)

76. Effects of PBL on Students’ Academic Achievements and Social
Skills

77. 4.5. Inclusive and Innovative University: A Case of U.S. Arizona
State University
• “New American University” Model by Arizona State University
① In contrast to the elite universities that maintain excellence by only selecting
top performing students,
 ASU aims to enhance both student body inclusiveness and quality of
education and be “measured not by those whom we exclude, but rather by
those whom we include and how they succeed.”
② ASU president Michael Crow argues that since the 19th century, institutional
revolution of university has only been incremental, and because universities
have been constrained to the traditional structure, they have not been
producing researches that help community by addressing the changed needs
of society.
 Rather than replicating the traditional university system of Harvard or Berkley,
he asserts that universities should seek unique characters and identities

78. Project-Based Learning and Academic Industrial Cooperation
at Arizona State University
• The College of Technology and Innovation at Arizona State
University
① All classes are centered around projects in which students solving
problems faced by local companies or community at large
② Over the course of last 10 years, ASU has abolished 69 academic units
and created 30 new interdisciplinary units
• Partnership between Arizona State University and Starbucks
① Tuition rebate if Starbucks employee register for ASU online courses
② As of 2015, 1,500 low-income Starbucks employee registered

79. Transdisciplinary Research Enterprise of Arizona State
University
• Traditional departments and colleges were disbanded to create
interdisciplinary units that tackle social and future problems
such as water shortage and exploration of the Solar System
• Departments of Geology and Astronomy were combined to create
the School of Earth and Space Exploration, which aims to pull
together expertise in engineering, computation, and Earth and
space science
• Furthermore, with the creation of various other interdisciplinary
departments such as the School of Human Evolution and Social
Change, many traditional departments including biology,
sociology, anthropology, and geology were eliminated

81. Use of Education Technology at Arizona State University
• Adaptive Learning
① Computerized courseware provides adaptive feedback to what each
student is doing
② Computer suggests educational pathways based on performance of each
student
③ Professors adjust courseware based on their experience with students
 Online classes that utilize adoptive learning provide conceptual learning
while hands-on learning such as laboratory experiments are taught in
small groups
 Started with mathematics, it is now expand to include physics, biology,
and chemistry
 Dropout/failure/withdrawal rate of adaptive learning is at 6% in contrast
to the 20% of traditional lecture model

82. Use of Education Technology at Arizona State University
• eAdvisor
① It facilitates matching between interests of students and related-majors
by providing computerized database
② Also provides advices on most optimal choice of courses and schedules
③ For example, if a student receives a low grade on a major course,
eAdvisor suggests seeking academic support from tutors or transferring
to another major
④ It provides most optimal and appropriate pathways for students to
acquire their majors because all course related information is kept up-to-
date on a database
 Since eAdvisor operate in real-time to update student information
constantly, if students are in academic trouble at any time, the system
suggests more appropriate courses based on accumulation of prior
experiences with similar students such that they can successfully receive
their degree; moreover, it flags advisors to provide assistance when it is
necessary.

83. Use of Education Technology at Arizona State University
• Global Freshman Academy
① Partnership between edX and MOOC(Massive Open Online Course)
to launch of Global Freshman Academy
② Courses are free to attend, but to receive credits, students must pay
$45 for identity verification process and $200 per credit
③ Students can save as much as $4,000 per year
 Arizona State University currently provides 10 freshman courses
through edX and is planning to expand the list to 12.

84. Thank you for your attention.

85. 참고 문헌
• 이상엽, 제4차 산업혁명, 과총 국가발전포럼 발표자료. KAIST, 2016.
• 이정동, 한국산업계의 창조형 기술혁신생태계, 한국기업경영학회
추계학술대회, 2016.
• 이주호 외, 프로젝트학습을 통한 교육개혁, KDI, 2016.
• 이주호 ·최슬기 편, 한국인의 역량: 실증분석과 미래전략, KDI,
2016.
• 이주호, “제4차 산업혁명에 대응한 교육 대전환,” 한반도선진화재
단, 제4차 산업혁명 선도국가, 2017.
• 이주호, 최창용, “제4차 산업혁명 선도국가를 향한 정부개혁,” 한반
도선진화재단, 제4차 산업혁명 선도가, 2017.
• 유병규, “국내 산업 현황과 산업구조조정 방안,” 한반도선진화재단
국가재창조 포럼, 2016

86. 참고 문헌
• Crow, Michael and William Dabars, Designing the New American University, Johns Hopkins
University Press, 2015.
• Frey, Carl Benedikt and Michle Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are
Jobs to Computerization?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, 2013.
• Jackson, Deborah, What is Innovation Ecosystem, NSF. 2011
• Lee, Ju-Ho, et. al., Can Bureaucrats Stimulate High-Risk High-Return Research?, KDI School
Working Paper 2015-06.
• Lee, Ju-Ho, Hyeok Jeong, and Song-Chang Hong, Human Capital and Development: Lessons
and Insights from Korea’s Transformation, Edward Elgar, forthcoming.
• PCAST, Transformation and Opportunity: The Future of the US Research Enterprises, Report t
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