Presentation by Tineke Troost (Deltares, Netherlands) at the Delft3D User Days, during the Delft Software Days - Edition 2023 (DSD-INT 2023). Thursday, 16 November 2023, Delft.

1. Tineke Troost, Sacha de Rijk, Luca van Duren, and many, many others!
Delft3D User Days 2023
16 November 2023
Modelling the Carbon Cycle &
Energy Transition

2. Disclaimer
2
Delft3D
User
Days
2023
|
Modelling
the
Carbon
Cycle
&
Energy
Transition

3. Energy transition: huge task
29 September 2023
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 3
Targets North Sea humongous
➢ Key issue North Sea

4. But renewable energy also has impact
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 4
29 September 2023

5. And these impacts can be big!
29 september 2023
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 5

6. Effects offshore wind stratification and mixing
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 6
Difference in SPM concentration
29 September 2023

7. Effects offshore wind primary production
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 7
➢ Local reduction mean annual net primary production up to 60%
➢ Local increase (search area 6/7) >40%
29 September 2023

8. Effects offshore wind food web
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 8
Zooplankton concentrations
29 September 2023

9. Effects offshore wind food web
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 9
Slavik e.a. Hydrobiol. 2019
29 September 2023

10. Effects offshore wind food web
Consequences of the Energy transition for the North Sea 10
Slavik e.a. Hydrobiol. 2019
➢ Competition
➢ Primary Production
29 September 2023

11. Floating Solar & geothermal
11

12. Carbon:
huge task
Paris Agreement, European and Dutch
climate law: a reduction of 95% of
the GHG emissions by 2050
(respective to GHG emissions in 1990).
The LULUCF regulation of the IPCC
aims at a net negative GHG emission
by 2036 for all LULUCF sections
combined (Land Use, Land Use Change
and Forestry).
Even more complex: dual role, system-specific, large timescales, life cycle, etc

13. Carbon-related models at (or around) Deltares
Catchment to coast spatial gradient
Delcon+Charon
Consolidation
Gas formation
in deep sediment
Sed2Soil
Ripening
D-Water Quality /
D-Particle Tracking
Carbon sequestration
Climate change impacts
Coastal and estuarine
waterbodies
Coastal wetlands
/salt marshes
Dutch
peatlands
meadows silt depots, oil sands
Dredged
sediments
Dredged waters
SOMERS
Peat decay and
GHG emissions
Delft3D-WARMER
Sediment accretion,
marsh elevation
BlueCAN
GHG Emissies
Dutch
shallow
lakes
MCS-DSW MCS-ESD
USGS
BGS-SWB IWS-EWQ
WiBO
MCS-ESD/BGS-BGK
TU
CircSed
LCA

14. General aim:
To have an overview of all relevant carbon emissions and storages
- where/when do they take place?
- how can they be quantified?
- system specific and long term!
- providing reference and a
comparison to alternatives
Modelling aim:
- more focus, coherence
- more collaboration (better interfacing)
Deltares ambitions regarding Carbon cycling
Delft3D
D-Water
Quality
D-Flow FM
DELCON
PCLake
(NIOO/WiBo)
Warmer
(USGS)
Ripening-
model
(TU)
BlueCAN

15. BlueCAN
28 november 2019 Voettekst van de presentatie 16
• Collaboration with Witteveen en Bos
• Monitoring and modelling GHG emissions from inland surface waters
Field observations city pond
(Bergen et al., 2019)
Model results
city pond
(BlueCAN)
Quickscan tool for water boards

16. Delft3D-WARMER (Brand et al., 2022)
17
habitat elevations
predicted for 2100
Soil accretion (red)
and erosion (blue)
Brand, M. W., Buffington, K., Rogers, J. B., Thorne, K., Stein, E. D., & Sanders, B. F. (2022). Multi-decadal simulation of marsh
topography under sea level rise and episodic sediment loads. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 127,
e2021JF006526. https://doi. org/10.1029/2021JF006526
WARMER: Wetland
Accretion Rate Model
for Ecosystem Resilience
(Swanson et al., 2014)
Marsh evolution = storm events + annual (non-storm) changes

17. Please take home:
18
• Huge tasks ahead!
• A lot (of modelling) is already being done, but:
• Higher food web and Biodiversity
• Overview and coherence
• Collaborations!

18. Thank you for your attention!
19
Delft3D
User
Days
2023
|
Modelling
the
Carbon
Cycle
&
Energy
Transition