Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation
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This presentation was given at an IPCC event in Cardiff in October 2013
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Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation
- 1. Latest developments in climate modelling: Vicky Pope October 2013 © Crown copyright Met Office
- 2. Seamless prediction Climate Decadal Confidence boundary Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks Eg. Agriculture: this informs crop choice and planting date to optimise yields and minimise crop failure risk. Predicting routine and hazardous weather conditions and disseminating tailored and timely warnings. Monthly to decadal predictions informs probability of drought, cold, heat. Contingency planners, national and international humanitarian response, government and private infrastructure investment Public, emergency response, international disaster risk reduction © Crown copyright Met Office Seasonal 1-month 1-week Days Hours Now Past climate Supporting decision making Forecast lead-time Global and regional climate predictions. Informs mitigation policy and adaptation choices. Impacts on water resurces, heat stress, crops, infrastructure.
- 3. The big picture: Models for global climate change and mitigation © Crown copyright Met Office
- 4. Climate models Used in IPCC AR4 2007 Climate models Integrated Assessment Models Impact models People © Crown copyright Met Office Emissions Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Impacts
- 5. Earth System Models Used by some in IPCC AR5 2013 Feedbacks People © Crown copyright Met Office Emissions Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Impacts
- 7. The global carbon cycle... Why is it so important? © Crown copyright Met Office
- 8. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation © Crown copyright 2007 CO2
- 9. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation • The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere • “plant respiration” © Crown copyright 2007 CO2 CO2
- 10. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation CO2 CO2 • The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere • “plant respiration” • Dead matter (leaves etc) falls to soil • LARGE amounts of carbon stored in the soil © Crown copyright 2007 “litter”
- 11. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon CO2 • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation CO2 • The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere • “plant respiration” • Dead matter (leaves etc) falls to soil • LARGE amounts of carbon stored in the soil • Decomposed by bacteria/microbes and released as CO2 back to the atmosphere • “soil respiration” © Crown copyright 2007 “litter” CO2
- 12. Large scale view • Very large amounts of carbon in… • Very large amounts of carbon out • In long term, these balance © Crown copyright 2007
- 13. Ocean carbon cycle • Also absorbs carbon • Sea water dissolves carbon • Plankton photosynthesise and/or eat each other © Crown copyright 2007
- 14. Ocean carbon cycle • Large amounts of CO2 in • And out • In long term, these balance © Crown copyright 2007
- 15. Carbon cycle “protection” • Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half of our emissions CO2 emissions CO2 growth in the atmosphere © Crown copyright 2007
- 16. Carbon cycle “protection” • Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half of our emissions CO2 emissions CO2 growth in the atmosphere Warm years mean more CO2 © Crown copyright 2007
- 17. Balancing the carbon What we emit… 100
- 18. Balancing the carbon What we emit… 100 Must go somewhere = 50 25 atmosphere 25 land ocean
- 19. Balancing the carbon What we emit… 100 Must go somewhere If these go down due to climate change… = 50 25 atmosphere 25 land ocean
- 20. Balancing the carbon What we emit… Must go somewhere This must go up 100 If these go down due to climate change… = 50 25 atmosphere 25 land ocean
- 21. Balancing the carbon For given emissions, carbon cycle feedback means: 100 - More CO2 stays in atmosphere = 50 >50 atmosphere - We will see greater climate change
- 22. © Crown copyright Met Office National Academy of Science, 2011
- 23. The local picture: Models for regional detail and adaptation © Crown copyright Met Office
- 24. “I need hardly repeat, Sir, what has been so often explained, that the ‘forecasts’ are expressions of probabilities – and not dogmatic predictions.” Admiral Robert Fitzroy, 1863 “… one flap of a sea-gull’s wing may forever change the future course of the weather” Edward Lorenz, 1963 © Crown copyright Met Office
- 25. 10-year Vision: Integrated weather and climate prediction for estimating hazards and risks A number of global predictions at ~20km with lead times of days to years: Large-scale weather © Crown copyright Met Office A smaller number of regional predictions at ~1km: Local weather Probability of local hazard: Impacts
- 26. Moving from uncertainty to probabilities/likelihoods UKCP09 Single projection Summer Rainfall 2080’s UKCIP02 Very unlikely to be less than (10%) Central estimate (50%) Very unlikely to be more than (90%)
- 27. UKCP09: The first step on a long road... Significant step forwards: • First to quantify uncertainties and provide probability distribution functions • First to include feedbacks and uncertainties from carbon cycle But…… • No wind or snow variables, only limited information on extremes – but more could be extracted from the regional climate model ensembles • No account of the current state of the climate system © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office
- 28. Storm-resolving forecasts: 1800 5th – 1500 6th Sep 2008 Our 3 day forecasts are as good as our 1 day forecasts were 20 years ago. © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Frames at 10min intervals
- 29. Improved rainfall over and around mountains and hills in 1.5km forecast model gauge observations and model forecasts Rain 12 km Model orography 12km 1 km Case study: Carlisle flood, Jan 2005 © Crown copyright Met Office 4 km 1 km
- 30. Future change in the 1.5km model • First climate change experiments with a convection-permitting have now been completed • For first time we can examine future changes in heavy rainfall at the hourly timescale • 1.5km model shows large increases in heavy rain in summer, which is very different to the driving 12km model. • 12km RCM underestimates heavy rain in summer, and shows little change in the future. • Both models show similar increases in heavy rain in winter. © Crown copyright Met Office
- 31. Exploitation of the 1.5km model results Storms Water How will small-scale intense (convective) storms change? How will flooding, water resources... Change? Extremes How will the risk of risk of extreme events change? 1.5km model results Accuracy What are the strengths and weaknesses of current models? © Crown copyright Met Office Improvement How can models be improved?
- 32. Exploitation of the 1.5km model results Storms Water How will small-scale intense (convective) storms change? How will flooding, water resources... Change? Extremes How will the risk of risk of extreme events change? What else? What would help you? 1.5km model results Accuracy What are the strengths and weaknesses of current models? © Crown copyright Met Office Improvement How can models be improved?
- 33. Questions? © Crown copyright Met Office