This document describes the development of DREAM (Delaware River Ecosystem Assessment Model), a new technique for analyzing individual stream reaches and archiving stream data across the entire Delaware River basin. DREAM will use a web-based geodatabase to store baseline data, modeling results, and metadata. It will estimate environmental indicators like forest cover, water temperature, and phosphorus levels for over 29,000 km of streams by splitting them into 120m reaches. Field measurements show 30m maps under-estimate forest cover while 1m maps over-estimate it, so DREAM will use 1m resolution. It will include models of factors like carbon storage, fish growth, and climate change impacts. Watershed groups will help develop and test

1. Developing Delaware River Ecosystem Assessment
Model
DREAM
A new technique for analyzing stream reaches
and archiving stream data for an entire river basin.
Jerry V. Mead, Ph.D.
Assistant professor and Leader of Watershed and Systems Ecology Section
Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University

2. Planning and Science

3. Draft web interface

5. Web-served geodatabase
Archive baseline and project data;
Archive modeling and associated
metadata;
Allow users to access and assess
information quickly.

6. Evaluating multiple-environmental targets
Atrazine
Water
temperature
Storm
water
Stream order
7-9
4-6
1:2 (worst than reference)
1:1 (no change)
1-3
Carbon
storage
Total
phosphorus

7. How will the tool work?

8. Problem! So many streams!
~29,000 km2
?
+

9. Split into 120 m
long reaches
Generalized stream reach
NHD data base
Channel width
30 m riparian zone

11. %Forest cover
(30 meter resolution)
®
%Forest cover
(1 meter resolution)
1:1,966,745
% Forest cover
0
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
impervious
grass/herb
forest

12. Field measurements of forest cover
= point survey of land cover = 120 per reach X 33 reaches
120 meter
reach
30 meters
30 meters

13. # Cases
% Forest cover (measured)

14. Error in model estimates of riparian forest cover
Resolution of forest map
1 meter
30 meter

15. 100
75
50
25

16. Models or environmental indicators included
Indicator
Total PhosphorusE
Description
Total Suspended Solids E
Land use in the watershed
Source
McNair unpublished;
Fischer et al. 2008
McNair unpublished;
Fischer et al. 2008
Land use in the watershed
Carbon stocksX
Forest litter inputsX
Stream channel widthX
Water temperatureX
Richness of MacroinvertbratesX
Stream fish growth potentialX
Intolerant stream fish diversity
Based on forest inventory (good for climate-change mgt.)
Riparian vegetation and litter inputs to stream
Developed using 190 locations in the basin
Developed using 101 gages in basin
# of mayfly (E), stonefly (P) , caddisfly (T) taxa in a stream reach
Non-native/native X (cold, cool, and warm water species)
Major determinant of native fish biodiversity; sensitive to variety
of disturbances,
Sensitive to variety of disturbances.
Murdoch et al. 2007
Mead et al. 2009
Mead et al. 2009
Mead et al. 2009
Fischer et al. 2008
Mead et al. 2009
Horwitz et al. 2008
Louisiana Waterthrush (Seiurus
motacilla) habitat
Riparian quality indicator and areas at risk (Figure 3)
Prosser and Brooks 1998
Known sites of Species of special
concern
Factor in site prioritization
Natural Heritage
Programs & unpub. data
Stream salamander abundance and
diversity
Horwitz et al 2009;
NJ Fish IBI program
Flinders et al. 2008

17. Fish bioenergetics models
• Brook trout
Native fishes
• Yellow perch
Hartman et al. 2008
Kitchell et al. 1977
• Juvenile American shad
Limburg 1995
Non-native fishes
• Brown trout
Dieterman et al. 2004
• Smallmouth bass
Shuter and Post 1990
• Common carp
Opuszynski et al. 1989,
Specziar 2002, Stecyk

18. Climate change

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(A
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ou fon
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k nu
oo eli
Br av
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% Change in growth from current condition
With high carbon emissions scenario

20. Conclusions
• Technique assessed riparian zones rapidly. ~3hrs for
~340,000 stream reaches;
• 30 meter maps not accurate enough for riparian
assessment (under-estimated). 1 meter resolution maps
over estimated forest cover by 15%;
• Delaware has heavily deforested coastal zone (average
28% forest cover). Increasing forest cover from south to
north.
• The Environmental Planning Tool approach is extremely
effective at estimating riparian forest cover for an entire
river basin at the reach (120 m long) scale.

21. Developing the Tool
•Watershed groups help develop tool;
•Watershed groups use tool as demo;
•Tool disseminated and put online;
•Form a review board for tool expansion.

22. Thank you!