3. The SLEUTH model
•Developed by Keith Clarke (UCSB),
sponsored by the USGS Urban Dynamics
Program
•Widely used, well-established
http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/
4. Input data sets
• Transportation
• Slope
• Urban time series
• 1984, 1995, 2005
• Derived from Landsat satellite images
• Development likelihood (exclusion/attraction
layer)
• Identifies lands that are:
• Completely protected from development
• Less likely to be developed
• More likely to be developed
5. In NJ, buffers of 300 ft were applied to category 1 streams, 150 ft for
trout maintenance streams, and 50 ft buffers on all other streams.
Wetlands were buffered by 100 ft.
In NY, streams and wetlands were buffered by 100 ft.
In PA, streams and wetlands were buffered by 50 ft.
6.
7. How much growth will there be in the future?
1,000
We developed three
“reasonable” growth rate
scenarios
Area of urban land cover (km2)
900
800
700
600
Observed
500
Linear
50% Increase
400
25% Increase
300
200
100
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
8. And assumed different land use
policies…
• Scenarios were developed collaboratively with
stakeholder input (i.e. NPS, DRBC, county and
municipal planning offices)
• Baseline/business as usual
• Smart growth
• Focus growth into county-designated growth areas, around transit
stations, and strengthen protection on natural resources.
• Best for resource protection
• Start with smart growth, but expand and strengthen protection on
natural resources.
• Limited planning/limited protection
• Start with baseline, but weaken protection on natural resources
and encourage “sprawl” development.
