Assessing the effect of Inter-governmental organisations in promoting world peace

1. Inter-Governmental
Organisation
(IGO)
ANABELLE NG | ANG DE RONG | DAVID ARDIANSYAH | NGUYEN NHI ANH TRI | NICOLE KUEK

2. ARTICLE 1
The Kantian Peace
The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International
Organizations, 1885-1992
John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett
ARTICLE 2
Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace?
Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom
ARTICLE 3
Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace
Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet

3. October
31
2013

4. October
31
1795

7. …Zum ewigen Frieden

8. ARTICLE 1
The Kantian Peace
The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and
International Organizations, 1885-1992
John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett

9. …the world has been at peace for the
past half-century.
What factor causes it?

10. …Realist
vs Liberal (Kantian)
at dyadic and systemic level.

11. Numerous
research….
…consensus on
Democratic Peace
LESS… on economic interdependence and IGOs’
theory

12. Conceptual Synthesis of Realist and Liberalist Theories
Extension of Temporal Domain on Trade and IGOs
Address Realist theory about Hegemons and Kantian Systemic Influences

13. ….to provide
empirical
support for the theory

14. Democracy…
Economic Interdependence…
Joint Membership in
IGO
…Kantian Systemic Influences
….decrease
dispute

15. Technique
Unit of Analysis
Cross sectional
time series with
logistic
dyad
year
Temporal Range
Spatial Doman
1885-1992
all dyads
globally
regression
Dependent Variable
MID Involvement
Independent Variables
Democracy
Economic Interdependence
Joint
IGOs membership
Control Variables
Capability Ratio
Alliance
Contiguity
Distance
Major Powers

18. Strong
Joint membership
and statistically significant support for
Democracy and Economic Interdependence.
only significant when….
considering relative system measure and between
politically relevant dyads.

19. ARTICLE 2
Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace?
Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom

20. IGOs…
…increase the probability of conflict,
?

21. What are the
effects
of…
IGOs
on peace?

22. Impact of IGOs are debatable and its efficacy contradictory
IGOs seem to have a non-uniform effect on state behaviour
Lack of explanation as to how IGOs influence dispute behaviour

23. Bargaining
Theory

24. membership
alone
does
not
affect the probability of MIDs
an increase in…
institutionalisation…
member cohesion…
security mandate
….decrease
dispute

25. Technique
Unit of Analysis
Logistic
non-directed
regression BTSCS
temporal range
dyad
Dependent Variable
Involvement
Onset
or
year
Temporal Range
1950-1991
Spatial Doman
all
dyads
Independent Variables
Control Variables
Joint IGO, IGO Mandate
Floor Member Contention
Major Power Contention
Difference in Floor-Major
Power Contention
Diplomatics Missions Low
Democracy Low
Interdependence Low
Allies
Major Power Dyad
Capability Ratio
Contiguity
Distance

27. membership
alone
does
not
affect the probability of MIDs

29. an increase in…
institutionalisation…
not supported
….

31. an increase in…
member cohesion…
security mandate
….decrease
dispute

32. Only
interventionist
with
significantly
security
(highly institutionalised) IGOs…
mandate…
reduce interstate conflict.

33. ARTICLE 3
Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace
Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet

34. link between…
IGO and peace
is not
robust

35. Type of
IGO…
that
promotes peace

36. Credible commitment
dispute settlement
socialisation

37. a revised interpretation that emphasises the benefits of particular
types of IGOs so as to address conflicting prior research

38. …increased in
membership of
democratic IGO
promote peace

39. Technique
Logistic
regression
Dependent Variable
Fatal MID
Unit of Analysis
dyad
year
Temporal Range
1885-2000
Independent Variables
Democratic IGO
Spatial Doman
all
dyads
Control Variables
Democracy
Economic Interdependence
Contiguity
Distance
Major Power
Cumulative MIDS
Joint IGO

41. π

44. the more joint memberships in IGOs composed of
the
(both
less
democratic
democracies,
likely it is that states in a dyad
and non democratic)
will engage in fatal MIDs.

45. Link…

47. Research Design
Article 1
Article 2
CAPRATIO, DEML, DEPENDL, ALLIES, MAJOR PWRS,
CONTIGUITY, DISTANCE
Article 3
exclude ALLIES, MAJOR
PWRS and CAPRATIO

48. META questions
?

49. ‘+’
Heuristics
Empirical support
Falsifiability
Predictions and Extrapolation
Relative correlation

50. Qualitative vs quantitative
anomalies
Isolation of factors
Tweaking
reverse causality
threat to Internal validity
‘-’

51. “It’s
democratic
IGOs, stupid!”
- U.S. President

52. …danke