- North Korea has steadily developed its missile and nuclear weapons programs over 37 years despite international sanctions and pressure. It began with Scud missiles in the 1970s-80s and has since developed missiles with increasing ranges, including ICBMs that can reach the US. It conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and has continued testing and claiming more advanced weapons. The recent test was its sixth and largest to date, with a magnitude of 6.3. North Korea sees its programs as essential to its security in the face of perceived US hostility. The development poses challenges for the regional balance of power.

1. Date: 05/9/2017
Article by Dr Daniel EKONGWE
Director of Cabinet to the SG
PAID International General Secretariat
Yaoundé Cameroon
Title: Thucydides Trap, North Korean missile development and the
Fragmentation of States: Perspectives
Abstract
At the end of the Second World War in 1945, America emerged as one of the
leading World powers together with the Soviet Union. The collapse of the
Soviet Union following a brutal Cold War, open a new page of a single world
power in the US. Every historical epoch or era has a hegemonic state and like
Sparta will not tolerate the rise of another state to challenge its leadership
position or loss of status as a leading nation or number one position. In terms of
global trade, security, economic and political power, the United States of
America assumed a leadership role as the guarantor of world peace and security
after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After two wars in Iraq, fifteen years in
Afghanistan, and an exhaustive war on terrorism, America’s direction and
agenda of world peace and security, democratic rule, control of the UN security
Council and domination of trade is facing challenges from different regional
powers that have emerged since globalization created greater networks for faster
interconnectedness and the breaking down of barriers. The spectre of a world
order whose rules are determined by American prestige and armour is faced
with increasing regionalism as the way for an emerging post-Cold War World
Order. Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa have created the BRICS as
a challenge to the Western backed Bretton woods institution and specifically
Russo-Chinese partnership has wedge a gap in US global domination whether in
terms of trade in the Asian Pacific region or UN Security Council meetings. The
US feels increasingly frustrated to implement its agenda for global domination
especially as other nations in different regions of strategic interest to the US like
Russia in the Middle East, North Korea in the Korean peninsula have become
proxy players in the game of global domination through diplomatic or informal
negotiations with China or Russia. The transfer of missile technology and the
development of nuclear energy have become the pond to play around between
the US and her allies on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand.
The patter of a rising nation challenging the status quo of a leading nation
opines the importance of the historical patter propagated by the ancient historian
Thucydides. Thucydides Trap explained by the Harvard Professor Graham

2. Allison in his book ‘Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the
Thucydides Trap’ shows a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a
rising power challenges a ruling one. Picked from the Peloponnesian war
Thucydides explained that “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this
instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” China approaches an immovable
America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump have hinged their policy on
nationalism making their respective countries “great again.”
His 2013 book, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the
United States and the World (co-authored with Robert Blackwill), Nuclear
Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, was selected by the New
York Times as It presents a strategy for preventing nuclear terrorism organized
under a doctrine of "Three Nos:" no loose nukes; no new nascent nukes; and no
new nuclear weapons states.
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonChina's President Xi Jinping (front), Russia's
President Vladimir Putin (2nd row), and U.S. President Barack Obama (3rd
row) walk as they take part in an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
family photo inside the International Convention Centre at Yanqi Lake in
Beijing, November 11, 2014.
North Korea appeared to carry out a sixth nuclear test Sunday with seismic
monitors measuring an "explosion" of 6.3 magnitude near its main test site. The
reaction from its neighbors was swift; Japan's government said it confirmed a
nuclear test had been carried out, China acknowledged earth tremors at border
towns with the rogue republic. This time the story was different, the test was
claimed to be that of a Hydrogen bomb; the North Koreans if truly poses these
technology leave the entire peninsular in a state of melancholic madness with
little options in terms of diplomacy, sanctions, war or intimidation. None has

3. worked since North Korea embarked on what it thinkers see as the backup for
their existential threat from a war mongering Americans who seem determined
to keep the peninsula separated. For North Korea continuous missile test
wedges the gap between the US and China. Why? The Chinese and other states
in the Korean peninsula cannot afford to allow another war of great devastation
in their neighborhood…the Koreans know this. A Harvard Professor Graham
Allison wrote in his book titled ‘In Defiance of War: Can America and
China Avoid War.’
Using the ‘Thucydides Trap’ hypothesis and theory for that matter, I have
written in my book soon to come out titled ‘Protean Alliance: The West
Against the Rest’ like Graham that ‘it was the rise of Athens that led Sparta to
declare war on Athens. Historically, dominating powers or a leading hegemony
will enforce measures that will lead to the destruction of a rising power; this is
called in American geopolitics the sixty (60) year agenda. That is America must
lead a gap of sixty years in terms of power and domination in any field by sixty
years. The rise of China threatens this position. I wrote before about the
Western nostalgia against Putin and brought out the hypothesis of India, China
is the real threat to American Hegemony.
From the above analysis China north North Korea is the target of American
aggression; but can the US execute or dare a war against China at this point in
time in execution of the Thucydides Trap? China is aware of these position and
posturing and sees the North Korean position as a wedge against the US. It is all
diplomacy and tough talking in the game f geopolitics.
The chronology of the North Korean Game is illustrative of what each China or
America is hoping for.
Pyongyang's state media has claimed that the country has developed a
thermonuclear warhead that could be fitted onto its new intercontinental
ballistic missile, another brazen assertion of its weapons capabilities. The
official Korean Central News Agency said leader Kim Jong-Un had inspected a
miniaturized H-bomb that could be loaded onto a missile although the veracity
of this claims remains to be verified. This comes a few days after North Korea
lobbed an ICBM over Japanese territory and a few other missile tests
demonstrating the country’s highly developed skills and expertise in missile
technology. How far have they come since the Korean War.? How far have they
come over continuous western reports that the country will collapse the next day
or week because of famine or broke economy. We have seen all these and same
propaganda before.
International diplomacy and negotiations, threats and intimidation, sanctions
and isolation have not deterred North Korean action and exceptional growth of

4. expertise in a technology the West dreamt of monopoly and a weapon of
enforcement of their dominant agenda over other countries or those that refuse
to comply with agenda or follow the trajectory of their hat they call culture or
civilization.
In over thirty seven (37) years North Korea has pursued its objectives steadily
and have proven that other paths can work. If the North Korean educational
system was pariah or archaic there is little chance they would master rocket
science and missile technology that threatens the pioneers of such advanced
knowledge.
So, let’s take a look at the math and some key dates in North Korean quest for
knowledge to develop a nuclear-tipped missile:
In the 1970s North Korea began work on a version of the Soviet Scud-B missile
with the range of 300 km or 185 miles) test-fired in 1984. Pyongyang began
developing another variant between 1987 and 92; the Scud-C whose was range
500 km), Rodong-1 (1,300 km), Taepodong-1 (2,500 km), Musudan-1 (3,000
km) and Taepodong-2 (6,700 km).
About ten years later in Aug 1998 they were able to test-fire the Taepodong-1
rocket over Japan; at the time it was described as a satellite launch but the US
and others say it was a missile test. A year later in September 1999 following
some détente and diplomatic negotiations the North Korean government
declared a moratorium on long-range missile tests amid improving ties with US.
The North Koreans have mastered the art of negotiations and whern dealing
particularly with the west they understand how badly the West led by the US
want to curtail missile technology. The negotiations provide ample chance to
reap from the US millions of dollars. Three years after the moratorium in July
2000 following a fifth round of US-North Korean missile talks in Kuala Lumpur
Pyongyang began contemplating the way forward and from the discourse and
exposure and posturing of the Americans during the meeting the North Koreans
placed missile technology and the development of nuclear energy as part of the
national security strategy of their fatherland, after all the talks in Kuala Lumpur
ended without agreement after North demanded $1 billion a year in return for
halting missile exports. On March 3, 2005 Pyongyang ended the moratorium on
long-range missile testing putting the blame on the Bush administration and
claiming hostile policy from the US. From this time on the North Korean haven
learnt from the shambles in Iraq and demise of Saddam Hussein would engage
in the development of nuclear technology night and day. On July 5 2006,
Pyongyang test-fired seven missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2 which
exploded in flight 40 seconds after takeoff. Three months later the North

5. Korean stunned observers when on Oct 9, 2006 they conducted an underground
nuclear test the very first.
April 5, 2009 Pyongyang launches long-range rocket which flies over Japan and
landed in the Pacific saying it was an attempt to put a satellite into orbit.
However, the United States, Japan and South Korea saw it as a disguised test of
a Taepodong-2. On May 25, 2009 Pyongyang conducts its second underground
nuclear test, several times more powerful than the first and on April 13, 2012
launched what it described as a long-range rocket to put a satellite into orbit; the
object disintegrates soon after it was blasted into orbit.
With greater mastery from the previous experiments and showing signs of
greater confidence Pyongyang launched a multi-stage rocket in December 2012
and successfully placed an Earth observational satellite in orbit. This was
followed by another underground nuclear test in February 2013.
The coming to power of the grandson of the founder f the North Korean
republic seemed to have galvanized the engineers and technology developers for
missile and nuclear energy. January 6, 2016: Conducts its fourth underground
nuclear test, which it says was a hydrogen bomb a claim doubted by most
experts. The grandson lives in a far dangerous world than his grandfather and
the indicators of American hate games and agenda for the fragmentation of
states have become all too exposed. From Saddam Hussein, to Muammar
Kaddafi and the Syrian debacle over Asad’s regime, the ‘little Prince’ and his
advisers are not dump to see the cards of the West as a hostile bunch.
US interest in the Far East in the face of Chinese resurgence and Russo-Chinese
partnership leave the US and its allies with little options than to create a
situation that gives them leverage in maintaining the hegemony enjoyed in the

6. last thirty years1
. Russia-China Axis now operates against American and
Western interests in nearly every conceivable area of geopolitics:
 massive military build-ups of conventional and nuclear forces and often
collaborate and supply each other with missile defence on which they
have signed an agreement of partnership
 Conduct aggressive and often underhanded trade and economic policies
in major gas and oil deals in collaboration with newly developed nations
and create alternative international financial institutions such as BRICS.
 Take actions to consolidate and expand territorial claims in their
spheres of influence in violation of UN norms: Russia in Central Asia and
its “near abroad”; China, toward various disputed islands in the East and
South China Seas and toward its Asian neighbours
 Facilitate regimes both economically and militarily in regard to nuclear
weaponry: China has kept the North Korean regime afloat for years with
economic aid and enabled Pyongyang’s nuclear pursuits by its refusal to
enforce UN sanctions. Russia has bankrolled Iran’s nuclear program and
also acted as Bashar al-Assad’s strongest ally; showering his regime with
weapons systems, bases, and funding. Putin played a key role in the
diplomatic agreement that saw Assad turn over his chemical weapons.
 Using energy resources and other raw materials as weapons in trade wars
 Acting as perpetrators of cyber warfare world- wide activity almost
entirely directed against US or Western targets
 Waging war of intelligence and espionage against the West epitomized in
2013, when China temporarily sheltered and then Russia accepted for
asylum, American NSA contractor and intelligence leaker Edward
Snowden.
 Facilitating indirectly terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah
 Standing together at the UN as when the Russians vetoed and the Chinese
abstained from voting on a Security Council resolution declaring the
Crimea referendum invalid.
1
In their study on leadership, Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan have argued through the
rebirth of American global leadership the growing threat from the Russian-Chinese axis can
be halted In this excerpt from The Russia-China Axis: Ron Paul, a member of Congress
(twelve term), three attempts at U.S. presidential elections and current chairman of the Ron
Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity have argued same.

7. Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images President of Russia Vladimir Putin and Chinese
President Xi Jinping toast with vodka during a signing ceremony on May 21,
2014 in Shanghai, China
The world is truly a dangerous place and the emerging new world order out of
the decaying post-Cold world order has some indicators that observers of world
politics and geo political configurations see as an end game for western global
domination. From the perspective of
demography, technological advance, control of money supply by the Fed
reserve, covert operations and Brettonwoods institutional domination in
partnership with leading TNCs, Regionalism and increasing regional powers
have put US and Western positions in jeopardy. Except in military might that
the US and its allies still have an edge over the other rising powers like China;
this gives policy makers sleepless nights. It is an existential threat to the west.
The young KIM is not a part time player in this GAME; he is in the squad
pitting against the US and its allies and his missiles and nuclear technology are
part of the game. He has made these a corner stone of his legacy; like any
grandson to visualize the dreams of their parents. George Bush completed his
father’s agenda KIM has taken a giant step from his grandfather’s page.
In March 2016 Kim Jong-Un claimed he successfully miniaturized a thermo-
nuclear warhead and a month later on April 23, 2016 test-fired a submarine-
launched ballistic missile. On July 8, 2016 haven now understood the rules of
game have changed the US and South Korea announced plans to deploy an
advanced missile defense system, the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area
Defense). August 3, 2016 North Korea fires a ballistic missile directly into
Japan's maritime economic zone and in September conducts a fifth nuclear test,
its most powerful to date. March 6, 2017 Pyongyang fires four ballistic missiles
in what it says is an exercise to hit US bases in Japan. And on March 7, 2017
US begins deploying THAAD missile defense system to South Korea.

8. Changing the range of its missiles and sending a powerful message to the US
and international community Pyongyang on May 14, 2017 fired a ballistic
missile that flies 700 kilometers before landing in the Sea of Japan. Some
analysts say it has an imputed range of 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) and
therefore puts the American base in Guam within reach; July 4, 2017 test-fired
another ballistic missile that puts Alaska within its reach. Pyongyang later says
it was a "landmark" test of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile
(ICBM).
July 28, 2017, launches an ICBM with a theoretical range of 10,000 kilometers,
meaning it could hit much of the United States and by August 26, 2017 KIM
ordered another launch of three short-range ballistic missiles. On August 29,
2017 another ballistic missile was lobbed over Japan and into the Pacific. South
Korea says it flew around 2,700 km at a maximum altitude of about 550 km
Following threats from the US and test from the South Korean military, the UN
meet to discuss the threat posed by North Korea. Russia, China and South
Korea assure the world there will not be another war on Korean peninsula. To
up its game and as a deterrent North Korean on September 3, 2017 announced
to the world that it had carried a sixth nuclear test, with seismic monitors
measuring an "explosion" of 6.3 magnitudes near its main test site. The apparent
test comes hours after Pyongyang state media shows leader Kim Jong-Un
inspecting what it professes to be an H-bomb that can be loaded onto an ICBM.
The world is watching and you and I in Africa are witnesses as the drama
unfolds. The world will never be the same not even your country.
Fragmentation of state is part of the new world order and take note
…..Alliances are PROTEAN.

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