In this Presentation, we were looking at the International aspects of Financial Management, Terminology, Foreign Exchange Markets & Exchange Rates, Exchange Rates & Interest Rates, Purchasing Power Parity, Exchange Rate Risk and Political Risk.
5. EXCHANGE RATES
• The price of one country’s currency expressed
in terms of another country’s currency
All trading of currencies is in the form of US
dollars
Exchange rates are constantly changing
6. TYPES OF TRANSACTIONS
*Spot Trade: an agreement to exchange
currency on spot, or for the exchange rate today.
*Forward Trade: an agreement to exchange
currency at some time in the future.
7. 3. PURCHASING POWER PARITY
*Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
• Adjustment of exchange of exchange rates
*2 Types of PPP:
• Absolute PPP
• Relative PPP
8. ABSOLUTE PURCHASING POWER
PARITY
• Commodity costs the same
• $1 buys same thing anywhere
Pfc=So*Pus
3 things must hold true
No transaction costs
No barriers to trading
Items must compare
9. McPRICING
• The Big Mac Index: The Economist
• Over/Under valued
Not priced equally
• Absolute PPP Example
stock on NYSE & Other countries
10. RELATIVE PURCHASING POWER PARITY
• Determine change in exchange rates over time
through inflation rates
• E(S1)=So[1+(hfc-hus)]
E(S1)-expected rate
So-current rate
Hfc-foreign country inflation rate
Hus-US inflation rate
• Appreciation VS Depreciation
11. 4. EXCHANGE RATES & INTEREST RATES
• Covered Interest Arbitrage
• Arbitrage: the simultaneous purchase and sale
of the same securities , commodities, or
foreign exchange in different markets to profit
from unequal prices
• Covered refers to the fact that we are covered
in the event of a change in exchange rates
because we lock in on the forward exchange
rate today.
12. COVERED INTEREST ARBITRAGE
• Ft=Forward exchange rate for the settlement
at time t
• Rus=US nominal risk-free interest rate
• Rfc=Foreign country nominal risk-free interest
rate
• So=spot exchange rate
13. FINDING THE RETURN ON US
INVESTMENT
• Suppose we start with $1 and invest it in a US
investment with a 10% risk-free interest
rate(RUS=0.10)
• $ Value in 1 period=$1(1+RUS)
=$1(1+0.10)
=$(1.10)
• $ value in period=$1.10
• This means that in one period (one year), your original
investment of $1 will now be worth $1.10.
• The return on this investment is 10%.
14. TO FIND THE RETURN ON A FOREIGN
INVESTMENT
• Suppose we start with $1 and invest it a Uganda
investment with a 5% risk-free interest rate (RS=0.05)
• Convert the $1 into UShs. By multiplying it by the spot
exchange rate (So=2.0);
$1(So)
$1(2.0)=2.0 Ushs
• Invest our 2.0 Ushs at an interest rate of 5%
Ugshs value in one year=Ushs3.5(1+RS)
UShs2.0(1+0.05)
Ushs2.0(1.05)
• UShs value in one year=Ushs2.10
15. TO FIND THE RETURN ON A FOREIGN
INVESTMENT
• Then , we have to convert our Ushs 2.10 back
into US currency at the previously agreed
upon forward exchange rate of Ushs1.90
$ value in one year=ushs2.10/1.90
$ value in one year=$1.1053%
• Return on this investment=10.53%, >10%
return on this US investment, meaning
arbitrage opportunity
16. TO FIND THE RETURN ON A FOREIGN
INVESTMENT
• You can sum up all of this into one big
formula;
$ value in one year=$1xSox(1+Rs)/F1
$ value in one year=$1x2.00x(1.05/1.9)
• $ value in year=$1.1053
• Parity: the equivalence in in the currency of
another country
17. INTEREST RATE PARITY
• Interest Rate Parity: states that the interest
rate differential between two countries is
equal to the % difference between the
forward exchange rate
• To prevent arbitrage, return on US investment
and foreign investment must equal
(1+Rus)=Sox(1+Rfc)/F1
18. INTEREST RATE PARITY
IRF FORMULA Ft=Sox(1+(Rfc-Rus)}
• IRP tells us that any difference in interest rates
between two countries for a period is offset by
the change in the relative value of the currencies,
thereby eliminating any arbitrage possibilities.
• F1 indicates what the forward rate must be in
order to prevent covered interest arbitrage; i.e.,
return for US investment & foreign investment
equal
20. SHORT RUN EXPOSURE
• Day-to-fluctuations create risk
• Different currencies create greater risk
• Ways to reduce short-exposure
21. LONG-RUN EXPOSURE
• The value of foreign operations can fluctuate
• Matching foreign currency inflows and
outflows
• Borrowing in a foreign country
• Automotive industry example
22. TRANSLATION EXPOSURE
• A firm must “translate” everything into
dollars
• 2 issues may arise from foreign operations
1. Determining the appropriate exchange rate
2. How gains and looses should be
determined
• Impact on an international company’s
reported EPS
23. 6. POLITICAL RISK
*Political RISK-risk related to changes in value
that arises because of political action
*Firms in riskier countries:
• May lend to higher returns on investment
• Critical operations interrupted
• Contracts abrogated
• Outright confiscation
24. NATURE OF THE BUSINESS
*Business not valuable in the hands of a
different owners are likely to be confiscated
*Examples:
• Specialized Manufacturing components-Low
Risk
• Natural Resource Developments-High Risk
25. HEDGING POLITICAL RISK
*Example: Use of local financing, perhaps from
government of thee foreign country
• Can refuse to pay debt if unfavorable political
activities