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Q1 - 2015 North American Industrial Highlights
1. North American
Research & Forecast Report
INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Q1 2015
Key Takeaways
>> The North American industrial vacancy rate declined by 15 basis
points (bps) to 6.7% in Q1 2015. In the U.S., the vacancy rate fell
for the 21st straight quarter, down 15 bps to 7.0%. In Canada, the
vacancy rate decreased by 10 bps to 3.8%.
>> Net absorption in North America was strong once again in Q1,
totaling 63.1 million square feet (MSF), among the highest levels of
quarterly absorption post-recession. U.S. absorption in the quarter
was 58.6 MSF, up 21.4% year-over-year.
>> Healthy occupier demand and the need for modern industrial space
led to an upswing in construction in both the U.S. and Canada. 52.0
MSF was added to the industrial base in the first quarter, comprising
49.7 MSF in the U.S. and 2.3 MSF in Canada. In many markets, a
growing supply is needed given the rate of expansion in the economy,
pent-up industrial demand and tightening market conditions.
>> The positive absorption and tightening market conditions in several
key markets are pushing up industrial rents. The average U.S. asking
rent for warehouse buildings rose to $5.16/SF NNN in Q1, up 2.2%
quarter-over-quarter. Currently, average asking rents are 13.9%
higher than the market bottom reached in Q3 2011.
>> Some markets are seeing outsized increases in asking rents. For
example, the average asking rent for warehouse space in Q1 was
up significantly year-over-year in the following markets: Oakland
(25.6%), San Jose – Silicon Valley (24.6%), Denver (19.2%) and
Detroit (16.9%). Bulk asking rents were up year-over-year in
Waterloo Region, Ontario (24.3%); Miami (23.6%), Denver (18.5%)
and Nashville (16.0%). Markets where flex/service asking rents were
up year-over-year in Q1 include: San Francisco Peninsula (43.3%),
Miami (20.7%), Ottawa (17.6%), Chicago (16.1%), San Diego (15.6%)
and Cincinnati (15.5%).
>> The results of Colliers’ North American Q1 survey were decidedly
optimistic, particularly in the U.S. More than three times as many
markets said they expected tenants in their markets to expand as
opposed to contract in the upcoming quarter. The U.S. results were
even more buoyant, as 39.1% expected to see expansion while
only 10.1% expected contraction in Q2. Along those lines, 66.7%
of U.S. respondents forecast declining vacancy rates and 59.4%
forecast rent increases, as opposed to 8.7% that see vacancy rates
increasing and zero percent that forecast rents to decline.
>> Led by a handful of large portfolio sales, including Blackstone’s
$8.1 billion sale of its IndCor Properties unit to the Government of
Singapore, North American transaction volume hit a record high of
$17.5 billion in Q1 2015. The bulk of the volume, $17.2 billion, came
from the U.S. while volume in Canada was $329.1 million.
Industrial Market Shrugs Off Economic
Slowdown to Post Strong Quarter
Pete Culliney Director of Research | Global Thomas Galvin Regional Research Analyst | Research Services
Summary Statistics, Q1 2015
North America Industrial Market
U.S. CANADA
NORTH
AMERICA
Vacancy Rate 7.0% 3.8% 6.7%
Change from Q4 2014
(Basis Points)
-15 -10 -15
Absorption
(Million Square Feet)
58.6 4.5 63.1
New Supply
(Million Square Feet)
49.7 2.3 52.0
Under Construction
(Million Square Feet)
147.9 18.4 166.3
ASKING RENTS (USD/CAD)
PER SQUARE FOOT PER YEAR
Average Warehouse/
Distribution Center
$5.16 $8.10 $5.61
Change from Q4 2014 2.2% 2.5% 2.2%
Market Indicators
Relative to prior period
U.S.
Q1 2015
U.S.
Q2 2015*
CANADA
Q1 2015
CANADA
Q2 2015*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE**
* Projected, relative to prior period
** Warehouse rents
2. C A N A D A
M I D W E S T
N O R T H E A S T
S O U T H
W E S T
C A N A D A
Absorption Per Market (SF)
q4 '14 - q1 '15
5,300,000
2,650,000
530,000
-530,000
-2,650,000
-5,300,000
4.5 billion
2.25 billion
450 mil.
Occupied Sq. Ft.
Vacant Sq. Ft.
Sq. Ft. By Region
U.S. Industrial Economic Indicators
GDP
Q1 2015 -0.7% (second estimate)
Q4 2014 2.2%, down from 5.0% in Q3 2014
ISM:
Apr-15 PMI® 51.5,
down 4.1 pctg. pts. from May-14
RAIL TIME INDICATORS: AAR.ORG - YTD THROUGH APRIL-15
Rail Carload Traffic - 1.4% YOY
Intermodal Traffic + 1.6% YOY
M I D W E S T
S O U T H
W E S T
Absorption Per Market (SF)
q4 '14 - q1 '15
5,300,000
2,650,000
530,000
-530,000
-2,650,000
-5,300,000
4.5 billion
2.25 billion
450 mil.
Occupied Sq. Ft.
Vacant Sq. Ft.
Sq. Ft. By Region
2 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
The North American industrial market continues to exhibit
strong performance, as economic indicators and property market
fundamentals remain positive. Despite the lower-than-expected
first-quarter GDP numbers, the U.S. economy is forecast to grow
by nearly 3% for the year and produce another 2 million jobs.
Expanding sectors include automobile sales, retail sales and
housing construction, which are all strong drivers of industrial
demand. The manufacturing sector is experiencing positive
growth, and metrics such as the Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI), new orders and production are into their third year of solid
improvement. New supply, while growing relative to absorption, is
not likely to pose a threat of overbuilding as industrial demand is
keeping pace.
Industrial Economic Indicators
The biggest boost to the industrial market has been the broad
improvement in the overall economy, led by robust job growth, a
rebound in auto sales and new housing construction. Real GDP
contracted at an annual rate of -0.7% in Q1 due to the unusually
harsh winter, the energy industry slowdown and the West Coast
port strike. A likely scenario is a repeat of 2014, when Q1 GDP
was below-trend and the economy shifted into a higher gear in the
following quarters.
Job growth remains positive: The economy created 2.6 million jobs
in 2014, and 2015 is expected to be the fourth straight year with
more than 2 million jobs created. Household formations topped 2
million in 2014, one of the highest numbers since the turn of the
century. Overall job growth, combined with the increased household
formations by the millennial 20 to 34-year-old age cohort, is leading
this surge in new household formation. Each additional household is
a driver of industrial demand as related products such as furniture
and other household items are warehoused and distributed through
the supply chain. Moody’s Analytics estimates that 1.1 million new
housing units will be built in 2015, with 1 million new jobs being
created annually through 2017. Meanwhile, auto sales have climbed
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17 million, the highest
level since the last peak. This also creates demand for warehouses in
the Midwest and in coastal port regions.
The ISM’s April 2015 manufacturing report indicates positive
movement going forward. Although there were some weaknesses
in metrics such as supplier deliveries and inventories, other parts of
the index, such as new orders, production, imports and exports, were
are all growing, leading to an improving manufacturing environment.
Other ports such as Prince Rupert in British Columbia, as well as air
freight cargo, saw an uptick in activity during this time as businesses
diversified their supply chain to avert this crisis.
According to the American Association of Railroads, railcar traffic
was down 1.4% during the first four months of 2015 compared with
the year-earlier period, restrained by weakness in commodities
shipments. However, rail traffic will likely accelerate in line with
stronger economic growth during the remainder of 2015. Also,
intermodal traffic growth continued to increase, up 1.6% year-over-
year during the first four months of 2015, despite supply chain
disruptions caused by the U.S. West Coast port strike in Q1 2015.
Vacancy
Driven by robust absorption in the top U.S. markets, the North
American vacancy rate fell by 15 bps to 6.7% in Q1. The U.S. vacancy
rate fell 15 bps to 7.0%, and the Canadian vacancy rate dropped 10
bps to 3.8%.
Vacancy rates declined in each U.S. region, most notably in the West,
where the rate dropped 30 bps to 5.1%. The Northeast, Midwest
and South each saw roughly a 10-bps decline in the vacancy rate.
There is a wide disparity in rates among the regions, with the West
North American Industrial Vacancy, Inventory & Absorption
Q1 2015 | NA
3. *** - Q3-14 data
displayed.
How would you characterize current
industrial rents in your market?
% of reporting markets
Source: Colliers International
ABSORPTION, UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
| SELECT MARKETS | Q1 2015
.7
8.3
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015
Vacancy%
USTRIAL MARKET Q1 2013 - Q1 2015
ption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.9
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
70.0%
60.9%
38.5%
65.2%
59.4%
25.0%
54.3%
20.0%
26.1%
53.8%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
3.7%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
8.7% 7.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents
(relative to current quarter):
70.0% 38.5% 59.4%
25.0%
60.9% 65.2%
54.3%
53.8%
20.0%
26.1%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
8.7%
7.4%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
Up Same Down N/A
10.1%
9.9%
16.7%
2.5%
5.8%
4.9%
13.0%
33.3%
16.0%
65.2%
41.7%
61.7%
5.8%
4.9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
How would you characterize current industrial rents
in your market?
N/A
Declining
Bottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
65.2%
41.7%
61.7% 4.9%
33.3%
16.0%9.9%
8.3% 16.7%
13.0% 5.8%10.1%
8.3%
3 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
remaining the lowest at 5.1%, trailed by the Midwest (6.8%), South
(7.9%) and Northeast (8.8%). Western markets that ranked among the
lowest vacancy rates include Los Angeles (1.9%), Honolulu (2.0%), San
Francisco Peninsula (2.5%), Orange County (3.3%), Denver (4.0%),
Seattle/Puget Sound (4.4%) and Los Angeles – Inland Empire (4.5%).
New Jersey markets were among the best performers in the first
quarter with Northern New Jersey’s vacancy rate dropping by 90 bps
to 7.1% and Central New Jersey falling 50 bps to 7.6%. Other markets
with sharp drops in vacancy rates include Little Rock, Ark. (-90 bps),
Cincinnati, Las Vegas and San Diego (-70 bps); Tampa, Sacramento and
Boise (-60 bps) and San Francisco Peninsula and San Jose-Silicon
Valley (-50 bps). On the other end of the spectrum, markets with the
largest increases include Indianapolis (70 bps), Hartford (60 bps) and
Louisville (50 bps).
Canada’s larger markets generally saw declining vacancy rates in the
first quarter, led by Vancouver (-40 bps) and Montreal and Toronto (-20
bps). Meanwhile, vacancies rose in Ottawa (80 bps), Calgary (40 bps)
and Edmonton (30 bps).
Manufacturing at a Glance - April 2015
INDEX
SERIES
INDEX
(APR 2015)
SERIES
INDEX
(MAR 2015)
PERCENTAGE-
POINT
CHANGE
DIRECTION
RATE OF
CHANGE
TREND*
(MONTHS)
PMI® 51.5 51.5 0.0 Growing Same 28
New Orders 53.5 51.8 1.7 Growing Faster 29
Production 56 53.8 2.2 Growing Faster 32
Employment 48.3 50 -1.7 Contracting
From
Unchanged
1
Supplier
Deliveries
50.1 50.5 -0.4 Slowing Slower 23
Inventories 49.5 51.5 -2.0 Contracting
From
Growing
1
Customers'
Inventories
44 45.5 -1.5 Too Low Faster 5
Prices 40.5 39 1.5 Decreasing Slower 6
Backlog of
Orders
49.5 49.5 0.0 Contracting Same 2
Exports 51.5 47.5 4.0 Growing
From
Contracting
1
Imports 54 52.5 1.5 Growing Faster 27
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Same 71
Manufacturing Sector Growing Same 28
U.S. Industrial Market
Q1 2013 to Q1 2015
Note: Latest data as of Q1 2015
Source: Colliers International
*Number of months moving in current direction
Source: ISM
ABSORPTION, UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
| SELECT MARKETS | Q1 2015
Rolling 4-Qtr Deal Volume Year over Year Change
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
$-
$20
$40
$60
Billions
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$-
$20
$40
$60
Billions
2007
Roll
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015
Vacancy%
U.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q1 2013 - Q1 2015
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.9
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Edmonton, AB
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
Winnipeg, MB****
Victoria, BC****
Regina, SK
Calgary, AB
Waterloo Region, ON
Montréal, QC
Toronto, ON
Vancouver, BC
Millions
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorption
**** - Q4 data displayed. These markets report semi-annually.
10.0%
26.1%
16.7% 10.1% 11.1%
46.2%
39.1%
42.0%
0%
20%
M
idw
est
Northeast
South
W
est
Canada
U.S.
N.A.
Contract Holding Steady Expand N/A
46.2%
10.0%
26.1%
39.1%
16.7%
42.0%
10.1% 11.1%
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
23.2%
50.0%
27.2%
17.4% 15.4% 8.7%
25.0%
11.1%
1.4% 1.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three-month forecast for vacancy
levels (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
50.0%
27.2%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
10.0%10.0% 17.4% 15.4%
39.1%39.1%
8.7%
23.2%
25.0%
11.1%
4. Absorption, Under Construction (SF)
Select U.S. Markets | Q1 2015
Absorption, Under Construction (SF)
Select Canada Markets | Q1 2015
ABSORPTION, UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
| SELECT MARKETS | Q1 2015
300% 300%$60
ions
10.1%
9.9%
16.7%
2.5%
5.8%
4.9%
13.0%
33.3%
16.0%
65.2%
41.7%
61.7%
5.8%
4.9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
N/A
Declining
Bottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasin
Peaking
65.2%
41.7%
61.7% 4.9%
33.3%
16.0%9.9%
8.3% 16.7%
13.0% 5.8%10.1%
8.3%
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
0
0
0
0
0
Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015
Vacancy%
U.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q1 2013 - Q1 2015
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.9
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20
Savannah, GA
Indianapolis, IN
Chicago, IL
New Jersey - Central
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Los Angeles, CA
New Jersey - Northern
Atlanta, GA
Houston, TX
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA
Million
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorption
70.0%
60.9%
38.5%
65.2%
59.4%
25.0%
54.3
20.0%
26.1%
53.8%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.
25.0%
3.7%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
8.7% 7.4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.
Provide a three month forecast for rents
(relative to current quarter):
70.0% 38.5% 59.4%
25.0%
60.9% 65.2%
54.3
53.8%
20.0%
26.1%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.
25.0%
8.7% 7.4
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
Up Same Down N/A
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Edmonton, AB
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
Winnipeg, MB****
Victoria, BC****
Regina, SK
Calgary, AB
Waterloo Region, ON
Montréal, QC
Toronto, ON
Vancouver, BC
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorp
10.0%
26.1%
16.7% 10.1% 11.1%
46.2%
50.0%
39.1%
39.1%
66.7%
42.0%
45.7%
30.0%
21.7%
56.5%
8.3%
39.1%
34.6%
7.7%
13.0%
4.3%
8.3%
8.7% 8.6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
M
idw
est
Northeast
South
W
est
Canada
U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter, did
most tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
Contract Holding Steady Expand N/A
46.2%
46.2%46.2%
7.7%
10.0%
50.0%
30.0%
10.0%10.0%
13.0%
4.3%
21.7%
39.1%
26.1%
56.5%
39.1%
16.7%
66.7%
8.3%8.3% 8.7%
39.1%
42.0%
10.1%
8.6%
34.6%
45.7%
11.1%
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
23.2%
50.0%
27.2%
17.4% 15.4% 8.7%
25.0%
11.1%
1.4% 1.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three-month forecast for vacancy
levels (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
50.0%
27.2%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
10.0%10.0% 17.4% 15.4%
39.1%39.1%
8.7%
23.2%
25.0%
11.1%
ABSORPTION, UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
| SELECT MARKETS | Q1 2015
300%$60
illions
$60
illions
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015
Vacancy%
U.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q1 2013 - Q1 2015
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.9
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Edmonton, AB
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
Winnipeg, MB****
Victoria, BC****
Regina, SK
Calgary, AB
Waterloo Region, ON
Montréal, QC
Toronto, ON
Vancouver, BC
Millions
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorption
**** - Q4 data displayed. These markets report semi-annually.
10.0%
26.1%
16.7% 10.1% 11.1%
46.2%
50.0%
39.1%
39.1%
66.7%
42.0%
45.7%
30.0%
21.7%
56.5%
8.3%
39.1%
34.6%
7.7%
13.0%
4.3%
8.3%
8.7% 8.6%
M
idw
est
Northeast
South
W
est
Canada
U.S.
N.A.
Contract Holding Steady Expand N/A
46.2%
46.2%46.2%
7.7%
10.0%
50.0%
30.0%
10.0%10.0%
13.0%
4.3%
21.7%
39.1%
26.1%
56.5%
39.1%
16.7%
66.7%
8.3%8.3% 8.7%
39.1%
42.0%
10.1%
8.6%
34.6%
45.7%
11.1%
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
23.2%
50.0%
27.2%
17.4% 15.4% 8.7%
25.0%
11.1%
1.4% 1.2%
theast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
rovide a three-month forecast for vacancy
vels (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
50.0%
27.2%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
10.0%10.0% 17.4% 15.4%
39.1%39.1%
8.7%
23.2%
25.0%
11.1%
ABSORPTION, UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
| SELECT MARKETS | Q1 2015
200%
300%
$40
$60
Billions
$40
$60
Billions
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015
Vacancy%
U.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q1 2013 - Q1 2015
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.9
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Edmonton, AB
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
Winnipeg, MB****
Victoria, BC****
Regina, SK
Calgary, AB
Waterloo Region, ON
Montréal, QC
Toronto, ON
Vancouver, BC
Millions
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorption
**** - Q4 data displayed. These markets report semi-annually.
10.0%
26.1%
16.7% 10.1% 11.1%
46.2%
50.0%
39.1%
39.1%
66.7%
42.0%
45.7%
30.0%
21.7%
56.5%
8.3%
39.1%
34.6%
7.7%
13.0%
4.3%
8.3%
8.7% 8.6%
%
%
%
%
%
%
M
idw
est
Northeast
South
W
est
Canada
U.S.
N.A.
Contract Holding Steady Expand N/A
46.2%
46.2%46.2%
7.7%
10.0%
50.0%
30.0%
10.0%10.0%
13.0%
4.3%
21.7%
39.1%
26.1%
56.5%
39.1%
16.7%
66.7%
8.3%8.3% 8.7%
39.1%
42.0%
10.1%
8.6%
34.6%
45.7%
11.1%
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
23.2%
50.0%
27.2%
17.4% 15.4% 8.7%
25.0%
11.1%
1.4% 1.2%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three-month forecast for vacancy
levels (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
50.0%
27.2%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
10.0%10.0% 17.4% 15.4%
39.1%39.1%
8.7%
23.2%
25.0%
11.1%
ABSORPTION, UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
| SELECT MARKETS | Q1 2015
300%
200%
300%$60
illions
10.1%
9.9%
16.7%
2.5%
5.8%
4.9%
13.0%
33.3%
16.0%
65.2%
41.7%
61.7%
5.8%
4.9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
N/A
Declining
Bottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
65.2%
41.7%
61.7% 4.9%
33.3%
16.0%9.9%
8.3% 16.7%
13.0% 5.8%10.1%
8.3%
8.7
8.3
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
13
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015
Vacancy%
. INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q1 2013 - Q1 2015
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
8.1 7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.9
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Savannah, GA
Indianapolis, IN
Chicago, IL
New Jersey - Central
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Los Angeles, CA
New Jersey - Northern
Atlanta, GA
Houston, TX
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA
Millions
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorption
70.0%
60.9%
38.5%
65.2%
59.4%
25.0%
54.3%
20.0%
26.1%
53.8%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
3.7%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
8.7% 7.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents
(relative to current quarter):
70.0% 38.5% 59.4%
25.0%
60.9% 65.2%
54.3%
53.8%
20.0%
26.1%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
8.7%
7.4%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
Up Same Down N/A
4 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Absorption
Net absorption was strong in Q1 at 63.1 MSF, broken out into
58.6 MSF in the U.S. and 4.5 MSF in Canada. We expect positive
absorption to continue this year in the vast majority of markets.
In fact, of the 81 markets in North America, we forecast negative
absorption in only one: Calgary.
U.S. Q1 absorption was concentrated in a handful of markets, such
as Los Angeles – Inland Empire, which saw absorption of 5.3 MSF,
followed by Houston (3.8 MSF), Atlanta (3.7 MSF), Northern New
Jersey (3.5 MSF), Los Angeles (3.5 MSF) and Dallas-Ft. Worth (3.0
MSF). Top Canadian markets for absorption were Vancouver (1.8
MSF) and Toronto (1.7 MSF).
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this
quarter, did most tenants expand, hold steady
or contract?
Provide a three month forecast for rents
(relative to current quarter):
**** Q4 data displayed. These markets report semi-annually.
Source: Colliers International
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy
(relative to current quarter):
% of reporting markets
Source: Colliers International
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Toronto, ON
Vancouver, BC
10.0%
26.1%
16.7% 10.1% 11.1%
46.2%
50.0%
39.1%
39.1%
66.7%
42.0%
45.7%
30.0%
21.7%
56.5%
8.3%
39.1%
34.6%
7.7%
13.0%
4.3%
8.3%
8.7% 8.6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
M
idw
est
Northeast
South
W
est
Canada
U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter, did
most tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
Contract Holding Steady Expand N/A
46.2%
46.2%46.2%
7.7%
10.0%
50.0%
30.0%
10.0%10.0%
13.0%
4.3%
21.7%
39.1%
26.1%
56.5%
39.1%
16.7%
66.7%
8.3%8.3% 8.7%
39.1%
42.0%
10.1%
8.6%
34.6%
45.7%
11.1%
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
23.2%
50.0%
27.2%
17.4% 15.4% 8.7%
25.0%
11.1%
1.4% 1.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three-month forecast for vacancy
levels (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
80.0%
78.3%
46.2%
60.9%
66.7%
25.0%
60.5%
50.0%
27.2%
10.0% 4.3%
38.5%
10.0%10.0% 17.4% 15.4%
39.1%39.1%
8.7%
23.2%
25.0%
11.1%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
olume Year over Year Change
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Savannah, GA
Indianapolis, IN
Chicago, IL
New Jersey - Central
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Los Angeles, CA
New Jersey - Northern
Atlanta, GA
Houston, TX
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA
Millions
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorption
70.0%
60.9%
38.5%
65.2%
59.4%
25.0%
54.3%
20.0%
26.1%
53.8%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
3.7%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
8.7% 7.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents
(relative to current quarter):
70.0% 38.5% 59.4%
25.0%
60.9% 65.2%
54.3%
53.8%
20.0%
26.1%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
8.7%
7.4%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
Up Same Down N/A
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Year over Year Change
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Savannah, GA
Indianapolis, IN
Chicago, IL
New Jersey - Central
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Los Angeles, CA
New Jersey - Northern
Atlanta, GA
Houston, TX
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA
Millions
Currently U/C Q1-15 Absorption
70.0%
60.9%
38.5%
65.2%
59.4%
25.0%
54.3%
20.0%
26.1%
53.8%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
3.7%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
8.7% 7.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Northeast
South
M
idw
est
W
est
U.S.
Canada
N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents
(relative to current quarter):
70.0% 38.5% 59.4%
25.0%
60.9% 65.2%
54.3%
53.8%
20.0%
26.1%
30.4%
31.9%
50.0%
34.6%
25.0%
8.7%
7.4%
10.0% 13.0%
7.7%
4.3%
Up Same Down N/A
5. Source: Colliers InternationalSource: Colliers International
5 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Construction Activity
Rising industrial demand is pushing new supply to pre-recession
levels. Some 52 MSF of space came online in North America
in Q1, including 49.7 MSF in the U.S. and 2.3 MSF in Canada.
The quarterly volume of construction activity is at the highest
level since Q4 2007 with no letup in sight. 166.3 MSF are under
construction in North America, including 147.9 MSF in the U.S. and
18.4 MSF in Canada. Markets with the most new supply in the first
quarter were Los Angeles – Inland Empire (6.5 MSF), Dallas – Ft.
Worth (6.3 MSF), Houston (3.9 MSF), Indianapolis (3.2 MSF) and
Columbus (2.5 MSF). In each of those markets virtually all of the
new supply was in modern distribution centers characterized by
higher ceilings and a larger footprint.
In Canada, almost half of new supply in Q1 was in Vancouver (1.1
MSF), while the other markets with the most new supply were
Calgary (382,000 SF) and Waterloo, Ontario (263,000 SF).
Vancouver’s growing inventory could reflect increased activity in
Prince Rupert, which has access to rail lines that run parallel to
the U.S. border and is a convenient feeder to distribution centers
in Chicago. Toronto (8.0 MSF) and Calgary (4.1 MSF) have the
most space under construction.
A sign of the times is that a large portion of the new supply (60%)
in the United States is speculative. In Canada, 13.4 MSF of the
18.4 MSF under construction is speculative. So far, supply and
demand have been in balance with enough tenant demand to fill
the development pipeline over the next 12 to 18 months.
Transaction Activity
Investor demand for all segments of U.S. real estate remains
strong, helping to lift industrial transaction volume to its highest
level since the height of the last cycle. North American first-
quarter volume reached a record $17.5 billion according to Real
Capital Analytics, fueled by the Government of Singapore’s $8.1
billion acquisition of IndCor Properties from Blackstone. This
transaction demonstrated several trends: the strong performance
of U.S. real estate, demand for industrial portfolios and foreign
capital flowing into the U.S. Commercial real estate is in the midst
of a positive fundamentals growth cycle, and expectations are
for a continued reduction in the vacancy rate and continued rent
growth. Investors are drawn to the industrial sector’s low volatility
compared to office or retail product, and institutions looking in
this sector are willing to pay a premium for portfolios in order
to allocate large chunks of capital. Compared to other options,
the United States remains an attractive investment location for
non-U.S. investors. One such example is Norges Bank, controlled
by the government of Norway, teaming up with ProLogis to buy a
$5.9 billion industrial portfolio located in the United States from
KTR Capital Partners.
Demand has kept upward pressure on asset values, as
capitalization rates fell 20 bps in Q1 to 7.0%, the lowest level since
2007 and down 130 bps since 2010, according to RCA. Cap rates
are lowest in the West, averaging 6.7%, followed by the South
(7.2%), and the East and Midwest (7.3%). The Bay Area continues
to have the lowest cap rates with Oakland at 4.9% and San
Francisco Peninsula at 5.0%. Cap rates in Canada averaged 6.7%
in Q1, with Vancouver (5.2%) and Toronto (5.5%) remaining the
lowest. Although industrial is not a high-turnover sector, it is likely
that a fair number of property owners will be tempted to sell while
prices remain inflated.
Deal flow is dominated by the U.S., which represents about 98%
of the first-quarter volume and 95% of deals over the last year.
According to RCA, the trailing 12-month average of deals $2.5
million or more was $49.5 billion, up 22% from the year-earlier
period and the most-active period since Q4 2007. U.S. investment
volume was concentrated in California, which had the top five
investment markets in Q1: Los Angeles ($1.6 billion), Orange
County ($971 million), East Bay ($703 million), San Francisco
($633 million) and San Jose ($546 million).
Industrial Real Estate Indicators
U.S.
GDP: -0.7% in Q1
Inventory 14.9 BSF
Vacancy 7.0% Nationwide (down 15 bps)
Net Absorption 58.6 MSF in Q1
New Supply 49.7 MSF in Q1, up 16.4% over Q4
New Supply to Inventory
1.3% annualized
Note: Up to 2% is considered healthy
Net Absorption to New Supply Ratio 1.2:1 Q1 2015 vs. 1.6:1 Q4 2014
• Top 10 Markets account for 49.7% of 58.6 MSF net absorption in Q1.
Top 5 MSAs
Q1 Net Absorption
1. Los Angeles - Inland Empire 5.2 MSF
2. Houston 3.8 MSF
3. Atlanta 3.7 MSF
4. New Jersey - Northern 3.5 MSF
5. Los Angeles 3.4 MSF
6. 6 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Conclusion and Outlook
Strong economic and market fundamentals continue to paint a
positive outlook for the industrial sector for the rest of 2015. This
economic strength is underpinned by our expectations for stronger
GDP and job growth during the rest of 2015, coupled with rising
consumer optimism and lower gas prices. The industrial market will
also benefit from secular trends such as the changing e-commerce
landscape and traditional retailers such as Wal-Mart looking to
occupy more modern and efficient distribution centers. Another
trend is occupiers’ desire to embrace technology, which means
consolidating facilities or outsourcing portions of their operations
to third party logistics firms. Industrial demand is exceeding supply
in select markets as companies need newer, better and larger
spaces to meet the ongoing demands of their businesses. Vacancy
rates are down to near historical lows in many markets, and there
remains upward pressure on rents. Supply is increasing rapidly as
well but is being easily absorbed due to pent-up industrial demand
following the downturn and robust occupier demand for modern
space. Transaction volume hit record highs while pushing cap rates
to cyclical lows in Q1 2015. The industrial sector is vulnerable to
a general economic slowdown or an exogenous event that affects
exports and/or imports. Beyond that, the signs are very positive for
industrial real estate in the short run.
Winnipeg, MB
Saskatoon, SK
Halifax, NS**
Victoria, BC
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C
Savannah, GA
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TX
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume
(left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change
(right-axis)
Industrial Transaction Volume
Q1 2015 - NA
Note: Latest data as of Q1 2015; all data are 12-month trailing
Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International
4-Qtr Deal Volume Year over Year Change
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
$-
$20
$40
$60
Billions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rolling 4-Qtr Deal Volume Year over Year Change
orption
mi-annually.
Curr
North American Industrial Overview | Q1 2015
NORTH AMERICA CANADA UNITED STATES WEST MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST
# of Markets 81 12 69 23 13 23 10
Inventory (Millions SF) 16,700.1 1,794.1 14,906.1 3,867.9 4,261.3 4,508.3 2,268.5
% of N.A. Inventory 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 23.2% 25.5% 27.0% 13.6%
New Supply (Millions SF) 52.0 2.3 49.7 13.9 13.6 17.0 5.2
% of N.A. New Supply 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 26.7% 26.1% 32.7% 10.0%
Vacancy (%) 6.7% 3.8% 7.0% 5.1% 6.8% 7.9% 8.8%
Absorption (Millions SF) 63.1 4.5 58.6 21.4 10.8 19.1 7.4
% of N.A. Absorption 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 33.9% 17.0% 30.3% 11.7%
Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International
The Top Five MSAs in Transaction Volume
Q1 2015
1. Los Angeles $1.6 bil.
2. Orange County $971 mil.
3. East Bay $703 mil.
4. San Francisco $633 mil.
5. San Jose $546 mil.
7. 7 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | Inventory, New Supply, Under Construction
MARKET
EXISTING INVENTORY (SF)
MAR 31, 2015
SPECULATIVE NEW
SUPPLY
Q1 2015 (SF)
TOTAL NEW SUPPLY
Q1 2015 (SF)
SPECULATIVE CURRENTLY
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
TOTAL CURRENTLY UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD 228,860,908 0 1,340,886 0 0
Boston, MA 171,920,380 0 386,000 0 1,061,855
Hartford, CT 95,613,351 0 0 0 0
Long Island, NY 156,509,325 70,000 70,000 52,000 52,000
New Hampshire 61,542,042 0 0 0 0
New Jersey - Central 316,057,362 0 0 1,961,732 2,217,307
New Jersey - Northern 369,591,579 144,000 144,000 1,040,846 1,380,846
Philadelphia, PA 419,380,533 1,541,724 2,208,016 3,975,372 6,456,525
Pittsburgh, PA 176,181,726 246,522 691,522 85,000 85,000
Washington, DC 272,845,343 223,949 347,949 2,923,316 3,408,007
Northeast Total 2,268,502,549 2,226,195 5,188,373 10,038,266 14,661,540
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA 624,137,665 195,180 1,588,172 10,178,744 18,099,209
Birmingham, AL 106,954,299 0 0 0 190,000
Charleston, SC 33,369,960 273,000 273,000 500,720 500,720
Charlotte, NC 335,057,782 0 230,300 0 3,073,410
Columbia, SC 76,720,876 0 0 252,500 327,500
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 751,978,986 4,181,300 6,266,211 2,758,348 14,463,093
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 110,459,916 116,667 116,667 0 0
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 185,296,080 716,000 716,000 156,000 156,000
Houston, TX 502,022,060 3,127,949 3,970,949 5,032,858 5,982,858
Huntsville, AL 54,828,183 0 0 62,366 62,366
Jacksonville, FL 122,834,104 5,000 5,000 70,300 878,312
Little Rock, AR 45,275,910 0 0 0 0
Louisville, KY 175,967,398 0 1,095,336 0 1,437,162
Memphis, TN 227,548,638 0 342,144 1,651,956 2,951,956
Miami, FL 211,486,198 757,034 757,034 0 0
Nashville, TN 187,815,622 0 92,000 595,000 2,317,817
Norfolk, VA 100,435,468 24,300 24,300 0 605,000
Orlando, FL 134,278,233 135,675 135,675 233,720 233,720
Raleigh, NC 111,765,172 0 14,000 0 533,172
Richmond, VA 113,219,652 129,660 379,660 23,000 64,000
Savannah, GA 45,579,700 232,000 267,400 645,185 1,670,585
Tampa Bay, FL 201,000,509 0 0 0 281,000
West Palm Beach, FL 50,311,978 745,634 745,634 0 0
South Total 4,508,344,389 10,639,399 17,019,482 22,160,697 53,827,880
8. 8 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International8
United States | Industrial Survey | Inventory, New Supply, Under Construction
MARKET
EXISTING INVENTORY (SF)
MAR 31, 2015
SPECULATIVE NEW
SUPPLY
Q1 2015 (SF)
TOTAL NEW SUPPLY
Q1 2015 (SF)
SPECULATIVE CURRENTLY
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
TOTAL CURRENTLY UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL 1,323,916,290 985,780 1,841,826 3,739,008 12,593,763
Cincinnati, OH 247,757,995 0 1,203,450 2,115,000 2,480,000
Cleveland, OH 393,910,588 0 0 209,000 454,000
Columbus, OH 222,653,403 1,934,128 2,463,688 0 1,822,000
Dayton, OH 104,935,425 0 1,830,000 0 1,765,500
Detroit, MI 523,920,511 0 973,358 0 1,192,859
Grand Rapids, MI 113,836,643 55,864 55,864 95,000 337,010
Indianapolis, IN 286,926,467 2,284,844 3,182,302 1,926,310 2,258,479
Kansas City, MO-KS 236,657,808 169,498 445,058 2,700,000 4,395,453
Milwaukee, WI 224,171,500 132,000 778,263 122,000 202,089
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 244,390,992 686,500 821,500 1,495,004 2,650,068
Omaha, NE 68,321,636 0 0 133,919 274,970
St. Louis, MO 269,948,430 0 0 0 1,529,137
Midwest Total 4,261,347,688 6,248,614 13,595,309 12,535,241 31,955,328
WEST
Albuquerque, NM 37,203,914 0 0 0 0
Bakersfield, CA 35,467,111 0 1,250,000 181,200 2,238,800
Boise, ID**** 46,373,012 0 131,305 0 80,480
Denver, CO 219,699,952 392,425 488,347 1,071,277 1,120,704
Fairfield, CA 47,633,941 136,275 136,275 1,087,394 1,861,970
Fresno, CA 67,774,220 0 0 62,680 62,680
Honolulu, HI 39,259,344 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas, NV 118,191,313 0 0 464,203 1,853,728
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 446,449,500 6,520,700 6,520,700 10,829,234 13,340,800
Los Angeles, CA 891,806,800 768,300 768,300 3,153,100 3,153,100
Oakland, CA 142,563,820 0 0 1,107,634 1,107,634
Orange County, CA 184,169,900 0 0 473,600 473,600
Phoenix, AZ 284,890,635 684,420 1,089,857 1,361,131 2,311,979
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 17,391,991 0 0 0 1,298,207
Portland, OR 192,809,015 0 476,980 0 5,329,087
Reno, NV 85,207,063 0 1,227,000 0 5,724,000
Sacramento, CA 161,910,565 0 0 884,041 1,375,188
San Diego, CA 187,338,767 31,058 31,058 316,000 316,000
San Francisco Peninsula, CA 39,196,141 0 0 0 0
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 249,910,294 691,218 691,218 47,917 221,213
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 257,188,858 831,127 831,127 3,662,518 3,662,518
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 97,772,885 257,000 257,000 1,756,062 1,910,055
Walnut Creek, CA 17,649,288 0 0 54,430 54,430
West Total 3,867,858,329 10,312,523 13,899,167 26,512,421 47,496,173
U.S. TOTALS 14,906,052,955 29,426,731 49,702,331 71,246,625 147,940,921
(continued)
**** Q4-14 data displayed
9. 9 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | Absorption, Vacancy
MARKET
ABSORPTION
Q1 2015 (SF)
VACANCY RATE
DEC 31, 2014
VACANCY RATE
MAR 31, 2015
QUARTERLY CHANGE
IN VACANCY
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD 1,168,895 9.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Boston, MA -26,972 17.8% 18.0% 0.2%
Hartford, CT -552,006 8.4% 8.9% 0.6%
Long Island, NY 43,189 4.8% 4.8% 0.0%
New Hampshire -263,432 8.4% 8.8% 0.4%
New Jersey - Central 1,438,368 8.1% 7.6% -0.5%
New Jersey - Northern 3,461,022 8.0% 7.1% -0.9%
Philadelphia, PA 1,260,623 8.6% 8.8% 0.2%
Pittsburgh, PA 755,183 7.5% 7.4% -0.1%
Washington, DC 68,462 9.8% 9.8% 0.0%
Northeast Total 7,353,332 8.9% 8.8% -0.1%
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA 3,731,664 9.0% 8.6% -0.4%
Birmingham, AL 275,423 10.2% 10.0% -0.3%
Charleston, SC 601,627 7.3% 6.2% -1.0%
Charlotte, NC 970,950 10.6% 10.4% -0.2%
Columbia, SC 214,010 9.1% 8.9% -0.3%
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 3,027,905 7.8% 8.0% 0.2%
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 297,181 7.4% 7.2% -0.2%
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC -353,063 7.3% 7.8% 0.5%
Houston, TX 3,773,225 4.9% 4.8% -0.1%
Huntsville, AL -258,250 8.0% 8.5% 0.5%
Jacksonville, FL -281,551 7.8% 8.1% 0.2%
Little Rock, AR 393,161 11.8% 10.8% -0.9%
Louisville, KY -289,517 6.3% 6.8% 0.5%
Memphis, TN 602,115 12.1% 11.8% -0.3%
Miami, FL 1,551,039 5.7% 5.4% -0.3%
Nashville, TN 1,097,009 7.3% 6.8% -0.5%
Norfolk, VA 347,547 8.2% 7.8% -0.3%
Orlando, FL 939,440 8.9% 8.4% -0.5%
Raleigh, NC 273,319 8.4% 8.2% -0.2%
Richmond, VA 407,395 8.0% 7.9% -0.1%
Savannah, GA 355,762 5.5% 5.2% -0.2%
Tampa Bay, FL 1,027,398 8.6% 8.0% -0.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 445,908 5.4% 5.9% 0.5%
South Total 19,149,697 8.0% 7.9% -0.1%
10. 10 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International10
United States | Industrial Survey | Absorption, Vacancy
MARKET
ABSORPTION
Q1 2015 (SF)
VACANCY RATE
DEC 31, 2014
VACANCY RATE
MAR 31, 2015
QUARTERLY CHANGE
IN VACANCY
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL 1,181,377 7.7% 7.6% -0.1%
Cincinnati, OH 1,580,430 5.5% 4.8% -0.7%
Cleveland, OH 781,187 5.7% 5.5% -0.2%
Columbus, OH 1,590,452 5.4% 5.7% 0.3%
Dayton, OH 1,628,842 10.1% 10.4% 0.3%
Detroit, MI 932,851 7.9% 7.7% -0.3%
Grand Rapids, MI 37,814 6.2% 6.1% 0.0%
Indianapolis, IN 877,336 6.5% 7.3% 0.7%
Kansas City, MO-KS 455,913 6.3% 6.3% 0.0%
Milwaukee, WI 1,032,069 5.7% 5.3% -0.4%
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 682,925 7.0% 7.0% 0.0%
Omaha, NE 112,947 2.9% 2.7% -0.2%
St. Louis, MO -141,988 7.0% 7.1% 0.1%
Midwest Total 10,752,155 6.9% 6.8% -0.1%
WEST
Albuquerque, NM -104,083 6.9% 7.1% 0.3%
Bakersfield, CA 800,027 2.2% 3.4% 1.2%
Boise, ID**** 382,442 4.2% 3.7% -0.6%
Denver, CO 915,032 4.2% 4.0% -0.2%
Fairfield, CA -40,249 5.8% 6.1% 0.4%
Fresno, CA 27,819 5.6% 5.6% 0.0%
Honolulu, HI 26,441 2.1% 2.0% -0.1%
Las Vegas, NV 881,332 8.9% 8.2% -0.7%
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 5,256,200 4.5% 4.5% 0.0%
Los Angeles, CA 3,457,400 2.3% 1.9% -0.4%
Oakland, CA 42,088 3.9% 3.9% 0.0%
Orange County, CA -272,500 3.1% 3.3% 0.1%
Phoenix, AZ 1,539,476 12.0% 11.8% -0.2%
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA -122,394 6.4% 6.4% 0.1%
Portland, OR 1,029,599 5.7% 5.4% -0.3%
Reno, NV 892,227 8.0% 8.3% 0.3%
Sacramento, CA 1,026,455 11.2% 10.6% -0.6%
San Diego, CA 1,351,506 6.8% 6.1% -0.7%
San Francisco Peninsula, CA 180,024 3.0% 2.5% -0.5%
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 1,371,033 7.3% 6.8% -0.5%
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 1,632,426 4.8% 4.4% -0.3%
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 1,189,179 8.3% 7.3% -1.0%
Walnut Creek, CA -87,484 6.9% 7.4% 0.4%
West Total 21,373,996 5.4% 5.1% -0.3%
U.S. TOTALS 58,629,180 7.2% 7.0% -0.2%
(continued)
**** Q4-14 data displayed
11. 11 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | 3-Month Forecasts, Sales Price, Cap Rates
MARKET
VACANCY FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
RENT FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
ABSORPTION FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
SALES PRICE
(USD/SF)
CAP RATE
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD Down Up Positive $71.96 7.3%
Boston, MA Same Up Close to zero $81.00 7.8%
Hartford, CT Down Same Positive $38.00 8.5%
Long Island, NY Down Up Positive $88.00 8.0%
New Hampshire N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
New Jersey - Central Down Up Positive $105.76 N/A
New Jersey - Northern Down Up Positive $103.27 6.6%
Philadelphia, PA Down Up Positive $63.46 6.7%
Pittsburgh, PA Down Up Positive $55.00 7.5%
Washington, DC Down Same Positive $100.00 6.0%
Northeast Average* $78.49 7.3%
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA Down Up Positive $45.00 7.8%
Birmingham, AL Down Up Positive N/A N/A
Charleston, SC Down Up Positive N/A N/A
Charlotte, NC Down N/A Positive N/A N/A
Columbia, SC Down Up Positive $22.00 N/A
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Up Same Positive N/A N/A
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Down Up Positive $79.01 7.2%
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Down Up Positive N/A N/A
Houston, TX Up Same Positive $67.00 6.2%
Huntsville, AL Down Up Positive N/A N/A
Jacksonville, FL Up Same Positive $58.00 7.5%
Little Rock, AR Same Same Close to zero $65.45 9.0%
Louisville, KY Up N/A Positive N/A N/A
Memphis, TN Down Up Positive $35.00 7.5%
Miami, FL Down Up Positive $67.89 6.2%
Nashville, TN Down Up Positive $47.00 8.4%
Norfolk, VA Down Same Positive N/A N/A
Orlando, FL Down Same Positive $60.00 7.0%
Raleigh, NC Down N/A Positive N/A N/A
Richmond, VA Down Up Positive N/A N/A
Savannah, GA Down Up Positive $36.00 7.5%
Tampa Bay, FL Down Up Positive $42.00 5.0%
West Palm Beach, FL Down Up Positive $81.66 N/A
South Average* $54.31 7.2%
* Straight averages used
** Forecasts for Warehouse space
12. 12 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International12
* Straight averages used
** Forecasts for Warehouse space
**** Q4-14 data displayed
United States | Industrial Survey | 3-Month Forecasts, Sales Price, Cap Rates
MARKET
VACANCY FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
RENT FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
ABSORPTION FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
SALES PRICE
(USD/SF)
CAP RATE
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL Down Same Positive $61.00 5.4%
Cincinnati, OH Same Up Positive $45.00 7.8%
Cleveland, OH Down Same Positive $31.00 N/A
Columbus, OH Down Up Positive $43.76 N/A
Dayton, OH Same Same Close to zero N/A N/A
Detroit, MI Down Same Positive $70.00 8.3%
Grand Rapids, MI Same Up Close to zero N/A N/A
Indianapolis, IN Up Same Positive $56.00 7.0%
Kansas City, MO-KS Same Same Positive N/A N/A
Milwaukee, WI Same Up Positive $55.00 8.2%
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Up Same Positive $54.00 7.2%
Omaha, NE Down Up Close to zero N/A N/A
St. Louis, MO Down N/A Positive N/A N/A
Midwest Average* $51.97 7.3%
WEST
Albuquerque, NM Same Same Close to zero $83.50 7.7%
Bakersfield, CA Same Same Positive $42.00 10.0%
Boise, ID**** Same Same Close to zero N/A N/A
Denver, CO Down Up Positive $69.45 6.2%
Fairfield, CA Down Same Positive N/A N/A
Fresno, CA Same Same Close to zero $65.02 8.2%
Honolulu, HI Down Up Positive N/A N/A
Las Vegas, NV Down Up Positive $99.57 N/A
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA Same Up Positive $80.00 6.5%
Los Angeles, CA Same Up Positive $95.00 6.3%
Oakland, CA Down Up Positive $130.00 4.9%
Orange County, CA Same Same Close to zero $115.00 6.3%
Phoenix, AZ Down Up Positive $73.00 7.7%
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA Down Up Positive $80.77 6.5%
Portland, OR Down Up Positive $72.18 6.7%
Reno, NV Down N/A Positive N/A N/A
Sacramento, CA Down Up Positive $56.08 6.0%
San Diego, CA Down Up Positive $110.95 5.6%
San Francisco Peninsula, CA Same Up Positive $180.00 5.0%
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA Down Same Positive $206.00 N/A
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA Down Up Positive $158.00 6.7%
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Down Up Positive N/A N/A
Walnut Creek, CA Same Up Close to zero N/A N/A
West Average* $100.97 6.7%
U.S. AVERAGE* $75.42 7.0%
(continued)
13. 13 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | Average Asking NNN Rents As Of Mar 2015
MARKET
WAREHOUSE / DISTRIBUTION
SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
BULK SPACE
(USD/SF/YR)
FLEX SERVICE SPACE
(USD/SF/YR)
TECH / R&D SPACE
(USD/SF/YR)
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD $4.69 $4.69 $10.59 N/A
Boston, MA $6.23 $5.90 $7.57 $12.28
Hartford, CT $3.89 $5.88 $7.89 $6.50
Long Island, NY $9.46 $9.46 $15.89 N/A
New Hampshire $5.18 N/A $5.56 $8.31
New Jersey - Central $4.95 $4.39 $11.73 N/A
New Jersey - Northern $6.06 $5.55 $9.68 N/A
Philadelphia, PA $4.35 $4.26 $7.50 $11.25
Pittsburgh, PA $4.74 $4.74 $12.21 $12.21
Washington, DC $7.08 $6.04 $11.86 $13.49
Northeast Average* $5.66 $5.66 $10.05 $10.67
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA $3.44 $3.15 $7.84 $11.04
Birmingham, AL $4.12 $3.45 $6.47 N/A
Charleston, SC $4.19 $4.53 $9.65 N/A
Charlotte, NC $3.69 $3.63 $8.06 N/A
Columbia, SC $3.16 $3.21 $8.24 N/A
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX $3.45 $2.90 $7.50 $8.95
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL $7.46 $6.40 $11.30 $6.77
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC $3.39 $3.52 $7.75 N/A
Houston, TX $6.15 $4.65 $11.57 $12.16
Huntsville, AL $4.67 $5.36 $5.71 N/A
Jacksonville, FL $3.84 $3.96 $9.20 N/A
Little Rock, AR $3.71 $3.12 $6.41 N/A
Louisville, KY $3.64 $3.68 $6.36 N/A
Memphis, TN $2.51 $2.72 $5.08 $9.75
Miami, FL $9.07 $8.23 $13.32 $14.89
Nashville, TN $4.61 $3.27 $8.13 $7.53
Norfolk, VA $4.66 $4.28 $8.09 $10.35
Orlando, FL $4.83 $4.64 $9.39 $9.10
Raleigh, NC $4.29 $4.89 $10.51 N/A
Richmond, VA $3.93 $3.81 $8.10 $9.98
Savannah, GA $3.95 $3.75 $7.00 $10.00
Tampa Bay, FL $4.33 $4.28 $8.03 $6.17
West Palm Beach, FL $8.75 $7.14 $12.02 N/A
South Average* $4.60 $4.29 $8.51 $9.72
* Straight averages used
14. 14 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International14
United States | Industrial Survey | Average Asking NNN Rents As Of Mar 2015
MARKET
WAREHOUSE / DISTRIBUTION
SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
BULK SPACE
(USD/SF/YR)
FLEX SERVICE SPACE
(USD/SF/YR)
TECH / R&D SPACE
(USD/SF/YR)
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL $4.34 $3.53 $9.50 N/A
Cincinnati, OH $3.54 $3.07 $6.84 $6.84
Cleveland, OH $3.24 $3.24 $6.30 $6.30
Columbus, OH $3.00 $3.00 $5.25 $5.25
Dayton, OH $2.45 $3.14 $4.52 $4.52
Detroit, MI $4.36 $3.50 $7.93 $7.07
Grand Rapids, MI $2.94 $3.08 $4.57 $4.57
Indianapolis, IN $3.00 $3.30 $4.00 $9.00
Kansas City, MO-KS $4.41 $3.97 $8.15 $7.40
Milwaukee, WI $4.32 $3.44 $5.35 N/A
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN $5.10 $5.00 $7.00 $7.50
Omaha, NE $3.88 $3.65 $6.65 $5.04
St. Louis, MO $3.84 $3.84 $8.24 N/A
Midwest Average* $3.72 $3.52 $6.48 $6.35
WEST
Albuquerque, NM $5.27 $4.29 $9.49 $9.49
Bakersfield, CA $4.00 $3.42 $8.00 N/A
Boise, ID*** $5.30 $5.73 $6.45 N/A
Denver, CO $6.45 $5.13 $10.14 $10.83
Fairfield, CA $5.35 $5.70 $7.36 $9.65
Fresno, CA $4.30 $3.12 $4.73 $4.65
Honolulu, HI $13.80 N/A N/A N/A
Las Vegas, NV $5.64 $5.08 $6.72 $9.84
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA $5.26 $4.93 $7.15 $7.75
Los Angeles, CA $7.04 $5.76 $9.25 $12.50
Oakland, CA $6.48 $6.20 $6.58 $10.08
Orange County, CA $8.04 $7.30 $14.50 $11.05
Phoenix, AZ $5.67 $4.54 $11.95 $11.63
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA $6.12 $6.12 N/A N/A
Portland, OR $5.36 $4.67 $11.29 $9.70
Reno, NV $4.19 $3.86 $7.18 N/A
Sacramento, CA $4.80 $3.48 $8.40 $8.52
San Diego, CA $8.28 $7.56 $12.48 $17.52
San Francisco Peninsula, CA $10.32 $10.32 $35.76 $35.76
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA $8.52 $6.34 $9.48 $19.32
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA $6.00 $5.46 $13.76 $15.17
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA $3.96 $4.08 $5.88 $6.60
Walnut Creek, CA $4.48 N/A N/A $13.52
West Average* $6.29 $5.39 $10.33 $12.42
U.S. AVERAGE* $5.15 $4.67 $8.89 $10.17
(continued)
* Straight averages used
**** Q4-14 data displayed
15. 15 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Canada | Industrial Survey | Inventory, New Supply, Under Construction
MARKET
INVENTORY (SF)
MAR 31, 2015
SPECULATIVE
NEW SUPPLY
Q1 2015 (SF)
TOTAL NEW SUPPLY
Q1 2015 (SF)
SPECULATIVE CURRENTLY
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
TOTAL CURRENTLY
UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
Calgary, AB 132,832,729 382,303 382,303 3,365,849 4,081,449
Edmonton, AB 137,237,718 0 0 2,470,788 2,952,803
Montréal, QC 324,958,553 0 250,000 677,637 892,637
Ottawa, ON 44,287,959 191,600 191,600 0 0
Regina, SK 18,153,953 16,720 39,095 243,700 268,140
Saskatoon, SK 21,926,916 80,916 80,916 318,392 318,392
Toronto, ON 764,787,312 0 0 5,560,943 8,020,943
Vancouver, BC 193,133,536 464,503 1,107,954 776,482 1,251,510
Victoria, BC**** 9,159,327 0 0 0 0
Waterloo Region, ON 59,810,113 247,933 263,049 19,987 275,877
Winnipeg, MB**** 80,157,082 0 0 0 304,000
CANADA TOTAL 1,794,092,392 1,383,975 2,314,917 13,433,778 18,365,751
Canada | Industrial Survey | Absorption, Vacancy Rate
MARKET
ABSORPTION
Q1 2015 (SF)
VACANCY RATE
DEC 31, 2014
VACANCY RATE
MAR 31, 2015
QUARTER CHANGE
IN VACANCY
Calgary, AB 93,225 3.8% 4.2% 0.4%
Edmonton, AB -392,350 2.2% 2.5% 0.3%
Montréal, QC 1,001,483 4.0% 3.7% -0.2%
Ottawa, ON -53,786 3.8% 4.6% 0.8%
Regina, SK 34,342 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon, SK -1,464 5.6% 5.9% 0.4%
Toronto, ON 1,664,752 3.8% 3.6% -0.2%
Vancouver, BC 1,774,088 3.9% 3.6% -0.4%
Victoria, BC**** 0 4.6% 4.6% 0.0%
Waterloo Region, ON 354,499 7.0% 6.9% -0.1%
Winnipeg, MB**** 0 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
CANADA TOTAL 4,474,789 3.9% 3.8% -0.1%
Canada | Industrial Survey | 3-Month Forecasts, Sales Price, Cap Rates
MARKET
VACANCY FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
RENT FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
ABSORPTION FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)**
SALES PRICE
(CAD/SF)
CAP RATE
Calgary, AB Up Down Negative $175.00 6.5%
Edmonton, AB Up Down Positive $164.58 7.0%
Montréal, QC Same Same Close to zero $65.00 7.3%
Ottawa, ON Same Up Close to zero $125.00 6.8%
Regina, SK Same Same Positive $168.00 7.0%
Saskatoon, SK Up Down Close to zero $165.00 7.2%
Toronto, ON Same Same Positive $86.98 5.5%
Vancouver, BC Down Up Positive $188.00 5.2%
Victoria, BC**** Same Same Positive $195.00 7.5%
Waterloo Region, ON Down Up Positive $71.00 7.0%
Winnipeg, MB**** Same Same Close to zero $100.00 7.0%
CANADA AVERAGES* $136.69 6.7%
* Straight averages used.
** Forecasts are for warehouse/distribution space.
**** Q4-14 data displayed. These markets report semi-annually.
16. 16 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2015 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Canada | Industrial Survey | Average Asking Rents As Of Mar 2015
MARKET
WAREHOUSE/
DISTRIBUTION SPACE
(CAD/SF/YR)
BULK SPACE
(CAD/SF/YR)
FLEX/SERVICE SPACE
(CAD/SF/YR)
TECH/ R&D SPACE
(CAD/SF/YR)
Calgary, AB $9.50 $8.25 $12.50 $12.50
Edmonton, AB $8.30 $7.80 $10.20 $17.00
Montréal, QC $4.75 $4.25 $5.75 $8.00
Ottawa, ON $8.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00
Regina, SK $11.00 $10.00 $12.00 $13.75
Saskatoon, SK $11.00 $10.00 $9.50 $14.00
Toronto, ON $5.24 $5.64 N/A N/A
Vancouver, BC $8.19 $7.64 $8.88 $14.00
Victoria, BC**** $11.50 $10.00 $13.50 $13.50
Waterloo Region, ON $4.99 $4.90 $8.39 $8.39
Winnipeg, MB**** $6.63 $5.50 $10.95 $12.75
CANADA AVERAGES* $8.10 $7.49 $10.06 $12.81
Canada | Vacancy Rankings
MARKET
VACANCY RATE
MAR 31, 2015
Regina, SK 2.0%
Edmonton, AB 2.5%
Vancouver, BC 3.6%
Toronto, ON 3.6%
Montréal, QC 3.7%
Winnipeg, MB**** 3.8%
CANADA AVERAGE 3.8%
Calgary, AB 4.2%
Victoria, BC**** 4.6%
Ottawa, ON 4.6%
Saskatoon, SK 5.9%
Waterloo Region, ON 6.9%
MARKET
VACANCY RATE
MAR 31, 2015
Los Angeles, CA 1.9%
Honolulu, HI 2.0%
San Francisco Peninsula, CA 2.5%
Omaha, NE 2.7%
Orange County, CA 3.3%
Bakersfield, CA 3.4%
Boise, ID**** 3.7%
Oakland, CA 3.9%
Denver, CO 4.0%
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 4.4%
Los Angeles - Inland Empire,
CA
4.5%
Houston, TX 4.8%
Long Island, NY 4.8%
Cincinnati, OH 4.8%
Savannah, GA 5.2%
Milwaukee, WI 5.3%
Portland, OR 5.4%
Miami, FL 5.4%
Cleveland, OH 5.5%
Fresno, CA 5.6%
Columbus, OH 5.7%
West Palm Beach, FL 5.9%
San Diego, CA 6.1%
MARKET
VACANCY RATE
MAR 31, 2015
Grand Rapids, MI 6.1%
Fairfield, CA 6.1%
Charleston, SC 6.2%
Kansas City, MO-KS 6.3%
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 6.4%
Nashville, TN 6.8%
Louisville, KY 6.8%
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 6.8%
U.S. AVERAGE 7.0%
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 7.0%
St. Louis, MO 7.1%
New Jersey - Northern 7.1%
Albuquerque, NM 7.1%
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 7.2%
Indianapolis, IN 7.3%
Stockton/San Joaquin County,
CA
7.3%
Walnut Creek, CA 7.4%
Pittsburgh, PA 7.4%
Chicago, IL 7.6%
New Jersey - Central 7.6%
Detroit, MI 7.7%
Norfolk, VA 7.8%
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 7.8%
Richmond, VA 7.9%
MARKET
VACANCY RATE
MAR 31, 2015
Tampa Bay, FL 8.0%
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 8.0%
Jacksonville, FL 8.1%
Raleigh, NC 8.2%
Las Vegas, NV 8.2%
Reno, NV 8.3%
Orlando, FL 8.4%
Huntsville, AL 8.5%
Atlanta, GA 8.6%
New Hampshire 8.8%
Philadelphia, PA 8.8%
Columbia, SC 8.9%
Hartford, CT 8.9%
Baltimore, MD 9.1%
Washington DC 9.8%
Birmingham, AL 10.0%
Charlotte, NC 10.4%
Dayton, OH 10.4%
Sacramento, CA 10.6%
Little Rock, AR 10.8%
Phoenix, AZ 11.8%
Memphis, TN 11.8%
Boston, MA 18.0%
U.S. | Vacancy Rankings
* Straight averages used.
**** Q4-14 data displayed. These markets report semi-annually.
**** Q4-14 data displayed