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North American Office Highlights Q4 2014
1. North American
Research & Forecast Report
OFFICE MARKET OUTLOOK
Q4 2014
Key Takeaways
>> The U.S. added the most jobs in 2014 since 1999 with all
employment sectors expanding for the first time since the
recession. More than half of the U.S. metro areas tracked by
Colliers have recovered all of the office-using employment
positions lost during the recession. Broader employment
growth, both by industry and geographically, is driving demand
for office space.
>> The North American vacancy rate decreased by 27 basis points
(bps) to 12.8% in Q4 2014, driven entirely by improvement in
the U.S. market. Vacancy increased in just nine of the 73 U.S.
markets reporting Q4 2014 data. The Canadian vacancy rate
increased by 40 bps to 8.7% with slower job growth and a
relatively higher amount of new supply coming online.
>> North American absorption totaled 25.2 million square feet
(MSF) during Q4, accounting for nearly one-third of the 2014
annual total of 77.7 MSF of absorption. Absorption in the U.S. CBD
and suburban markets reached their highest respective
levels since 2006.
>> Construction continued to trend upwards reaching nearly 116
MSF in Q4 2014, up from 88 MSF one year earlier. However,
development activity remains highly concentrated in a small
number of leading markets. The top 10 markets for space under
construction account for nearly 60% of total construction in the
87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers.
>> U.S. and Canadian office transaction volume reached a post-
recession high of $124 billion in 2014, although this was only
about half of the peak volume during the last cycle. Investor
interest remains highly concentrated in the major gateway cities.
However, we expect transaction volume to increase in higher-
yielding secondary and tertiary markets in 2015.
2015 Office Market Outlook the Strongest
Since the Recession
Andrea Cross National Office Research Manager | USA
Summary Statistics, Q4 2014
North America Office Market
U.S. CANADA
NORTH
AMERICA
Vacancy Rate 13.1% 8.7% 12.8%
Change From Q3 2014
(Basis Points)
-32 39 -27
Absorption
(Million Square Feet)
24.7 0.6 25.2
New Construction
(Million Square Feet)
9.4 3.2 12.6
Under Construction
(Million Square Feet)
96.2 19.5 115.7
ASKING RENTS (USD/CAD)
PER SQUARE FOOT PER YEAR
Downtown Class A $45.85 $49.58
Change From Q3 2014 0.4% -0.6%
Suburban Class A $27.78 $33.00
Change From Q3 2014 0.6% 2.1%
Market Indicators
Relative to prior period
U.S.
Q4 2014
U.S.
Q1 2015*
CANADA
Q4 2014
CANADA
Q1 2015*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE**
Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction.
*Projected
**Rental rates for current quarter are for CBD. Rent forecast is for metro-wide rents.
2. SF By Region
Absorption Per Market (SF)
q3 '14 - q4 '14
2,200,000
1,100,000
220,000
-220,000
-1,100,000
-2,200,000
2 billion
1 billion
200 mil.
Occupied SF
Vacant SF
2 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
U.S. Economic Trends
The U.S. economy fired on nearly all cylinders in 2014, adding
the most jobs since 1999. Moreover, the recovery has broadened
significantly, both geographically and by industry, compared with
earlier in the cycle. All employment sectors added jobs during
the year, even the lagging government sector. Federal payrolls
continued to shrink, but higher property taxes, sales taxes,
development fees and other cyclical forms of revenue enabled state
and local governments to add jobs, more than offsetting the federal
sector contraction. All states and most metro areas added jobs in
2014, even those without significant concentrations of the leading
tech and energy sectors.
The office-using employment recovery gained steam in 2014 as
well, with office-using employment growth accelerating to the low
3% range by year-end. The primary office-using sectors accounted
for nearly 30% of all jobs added nationally during 2014, despite
accounting for less than 22% of all jobs. The office sectors are
ahead of the recovery in total employment, having recovered about
1.4 jobs for every 1.0 lost during the recession. In all employment
sectors, less than 1.3 jobs have been recovered for each 1.0 job lost.
The office employment recovery remains bifurcated, driven primarily
by the professional and business services sector, which includes
many technology, engineering, consulting and other knowledge-
based employment categories. This sector has added nearly two
jobs for every one lost during the recession. On the other hand, the
financial services sector remains far behind in recovery, although
growth picked up slightly during 2014. The financial activities sector
has added just over 0.5 jobs for every 1.0 lost during the recession,
remaining well below the previous peak. Many finance jobs lost
Change in Employment From Cyclical Peak
- US
Office Market | Q4 2012–Q4 2014 | US
Office Vacancy, Inventory & Absorption
Q4 2014 | North America
Note: Latest data as of December 2014; x-axis indicates number of
months elapsed since each sector’s previous cyclical employment peak;
office-using employment sectors include professional and business
services, financial activities and information services; information
services not displayed separately because sector peaked in 2001.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve of St. Louis,
Colliers International
Source: Colliers International
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.7
2.1
2.2
3.4
3.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
Victoria, BC
Waterloo Region, ON
Winnipeg, MB
Regina, SK
Halifax, NS**
Edmonton, AB
Vancouver, BC
Calgary, AB
Toronto, ON
Montreal, QC
1.0%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.5%
2.0%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
Office Transaction Volume - Q4 2014 - NA
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Months
Office-Using Employment
Financial Activities
Total Employment
Professional & Business Services
Millions SF
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q4 Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vacancy%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vac Rate (%)
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
3.5Toronto, ON
N.A. Downtown Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in
your CBD/downtown, did most tenants:
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Expand, 20.6%
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Contract,
17.6%
N.A. Downtown Markets:
What was the trend for tenant Improvement allowances
offered by CBD landlords this quarter?
Less, 9.1%
Same, 64.9%Same, 64.9%
More, 14.3%
N/A, 11.7%
14.6 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1
0.0
3. Top 20 Markets for Office-Using Jobs Recovered
December 2014 - US
MSA
JOBS
RECOVERED*
MSA
JOBS
RECOVERED*
Austin 5.1:1 Indianapolis 1.9:1
Raleigh 4.1:1 St. Louis 1.8:1
Nashville 3.4:1 Denver 1.8:1
San Francisco 3.2:1 Baltimore 1.7:1
San Jose 2.9:1 Charlotte 1.7:1
Dallas-Fort Worth 2.6:1 Jacksonville 1.6:1
Houston 2.5:1 Cincinnati 1.6:1
Pittsburgh 2.2:1 Columbus 1.5:1
Grand Rapids 2.1:1 Atlanta 1.5:1
Omaha 2.0:1 Boston 1.5:1
UNITED STATES 1.4:1
Fastest Office-Using Employment Growth
December 2013-2014 - US
MSA % CHANGE MSA % CHANGE
Raleigh 9.2% Sacramento 4.3%
San Jose 7.7% Inland Empire 4.2%
Grand Rapids 7.3% Phoenix 4.2%
Dallas-Fort Worth 6.1% Houston 4.1%
San Francisco 5.7% Austin 4.0%
Fort Lauderdale 5.1% Miami 3.9%
San Diego 5.1% Cincinnati 3.7%
Richmond 4.9% Birmingham 3.7%
Jacksonville 4.9% Indianapolis 3.6%
Nashville 4.6% Kansas City 3.5%
UNITED STATES 3.0%
Markets With Financial Activities Employment At
or Above Pre-Recession Peak December 2014 - US
MSA
JOBS
RECOVERED*
MSA
JOBS
RECOVERED*
St. Louis 4.1:1 Richmond 1.4:1
Dallas-Fort Worth 4.1:1 Cincinnati 1.4:1
Nashville 3.5:1 Birmingham 1.2:1
Omaha 3.1:1 Jacksonville 1.2:1
Austin 2.4:1 Houston 1.2:1
Pittsburgh 1.7:1 Kansas City 1.0:1
Phoenix 1.5:1 Raleigh 1.0:1
UNITED STATES 0.5:1
* Number of Jobs Recovered Per One Lost During Recession
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted as of December 2014; rankings include
markets tracked by Colliers with at least 100,000 office-using jobs or 25,000
financial activities jobs as of December 2014
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve of St. Louis, Colliers
International
3 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
during the recession were housing bubble-related positions that
will not come back during this cycle. In addition, many financial
firms have struggled with an uncertain regulatory environment and
cost constraints, resulting in their reluctance to increase lending
activities and add to payrolls. Thus, financial activities employment
is likely to remain well below peak levels through 2015. However,
significant regional variations exist. The financial activities recovery
remains weak in many traditional, higher-cost finance centers such
as Los Angeles, Chicago and San Francisco, but some lower-cost
markets in the Sunbelt, Midwest and Mountain regions already have
recovered all of the finance jobs lost during the recession.
Metro areas with large concentrations of tech, energy, education
and healthcare employment remain furthest along in the recovery
with markets such as Austin, Raleigh-Durham, Nashville, San
Francisco, Silicon Valley and Dallas-Fort Worth far outpacing
the U.S. office-using employment recovery. However, a number
of lagging Sunbelt markets hit particularly hard by the housing
market collapse were among the strongest markets for office-using
employment growth in 2014, indicating how broad the recovery has
become. Fort Lauderdale, San Diego, Jacksonville, Sacramento,
the Inland Empire and Phoenix all posted office-using employment
growth of at least 4% during the year, compared with 3% growth
nationally. More than half of the 84 metro areas tracked by Colliers
have recovered all of the office-using employment positions lost
during the recession.
The plunge in oil prices since mid-2014 remains a localized but
significant risk in some markets. Although a net positive for the
U.S. economy, the 50% drop in oil prices since mid-2014 is a
negative for metro areas and states with a large amount of related
activity, such as Houston, Oklahoma and North Dakota. In addition
to firms directly involved in energy extraction and production
activities, support services, such as legal and accounting, as well
as industries that have benefited from the robust economic growth
driven by the energy industry, such as housing and retail trade, are
poised to feel the impact as well. The outlook remains uncertain,
particularly given the global nature of the oil marketplace. However,
with oil prices currently below the breakeven price for most shale
oil plays, many of these markets already are feeling the impact in
the form of sharply lower rig counts, layoffs, slower leasing activity
and an up-tick in the amount of sublease space coming to market.
Despite the potential negative economic impact of sustained,
depressed oil prices on select areas, the overall U.S. economic
outlook for 2015 remains bright. IHS Global Insight projects 3.0%
growth in real GDP this year, which is the fastest rate since 2005.
Job growth once again should reach rates last achieved during the
late 1990s with more than 3 million positions added during the year.
These favorable demand trends contribute to our positive outlook
for the overall U.S. office market in 2015.
4. In Brief:
Office Outlook 2015 | Behind The
Statistics & Beyond The Basics
Scope of Colliers’ Office Outlook Report: Colliers’ office
space universe encompasses 87 markets in the U.S. and
Canada with a combined total of more than 6.4 billion
square feet (BSF). The 75 U.S. markets account for most
of this space, with nearly 6.0 BSF of tracked inventory
and the remaining 452 MSF in Canada. Our coverage
includes 21 markets with more than 100 MSF of space with
a combined total of 3.8 BSF or nearly 60% of our office
market inventory. The largest U.S. markets are New York,
Washington, D.C., Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta. Toronto is the
only Canadian market with more than 100 MSF of space.
Vacancy
The North American vacancy rate decreased by 27 bps in Q4 2014
to 12.8%, driven by stronger office-using employment growth and
still-low levels of new supply in the U.S. The U.S. vacancy rate
decreased by 32 bps to 13.1% as all U.S. regions posted vacancy
rate declines, led by the West with a 46 bps decrease to 13.3%.
The Northeast remained the tightest U.S. region and was the only
region with a sub-13% vacancy rate at 12.9%. The U.S. vacancy
rate is now at the lowest level since Q1 2008 and should drop
below 13% this year.
Of the 73 U.S. markets reporting both Q3 2014 and Q4 2014 data,
just nine posted quarterly increases in vacancy, reflecting how
broad the office market recovery has become. In addition, a wide
range of markets in terms of size, geography and economic drivers
led the list of metro areas with the largest vacancy decreases in
Q4 2014. Knowledge-driven economies including Raleigh-Durham
and Silicon Valley ranked high, as did markets benefiting from
spillover tenant demand such as the Oakland and Pleasanton/Tri-
Valley markets located east of the pricier San Francisco and Silicon
Valley markets. Tech tenant demand in high-cost cities like San
Francisco, New York and Boston has driven up rents to levels that
other occupiers such as financial services firms and non-profits are
unwilling or unable to pay, benefiting lower-cost office markets in
adjacent metro areas or other states. Former housing bust markets
including the Inland Empire, Orange County, Jacksonville and Los
Angeles also are starting to benefit from stronger office-using
employment growth, resulting in substantial vacancy declines in
those markets as well.
Canada’s vacancy rate increased modestly during Q4 2014 but
remained well below the U.S. vacancy rate at 8.7%. Weaker job
growth and a growing amount of new supply coming online have
contributed to vacancy increases in recent quarters. Of the 11
Canadian markets reporting both Q3 2014 and Q4 2014 data,
six posted vacancy rate increases during the quarter. The small
4 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International4
Canada Economic Trends
The Canadian economic outlook weakened in recent months
with downward revisions to employment numbers and the
negative impact of falling oil prices. Statistics Canada, the federal
government’s statistical agency, recently announced that one-third
fewer jobs were added during 2014 than were originally reported,
contributing to the Bank of Canada’s decision to lower interest
rates for the first time since 2010. Job growth has slowed sharply
during the last few years, from about 312,000 jobs gained in 2012
to roughly 121,000 positions added in 2014. Also, unlike in the U.S.,
the decline in oil prices is generally considered a net negative for
the Canadian economy and already has started to impact energy-
producing regions, particularly Alberta. Federal government cutbacks
also are negatively affecting the economy, especially Ottawa, a trend
that likely will be exacerbated by further declines in oil production.
Sources: OECD, Federal Reserve of St. Louis, Colliers International
Canada Employed Population - Annual % Change
-332.7
-159.7
-78.0
-57.2
-41.7
-38.9
-15.8
9.6
10.1
30.9
87.3
327.5
-400.0-300.0-20
0.0-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0300.0400.0
Thousands SF
Calgary, AB
Halifax, NS**
Saskatoon, SK
Edmonton, AB
Ottawa, ON
Victoria, BC
Regina, SK
Waterloo Region, ON
Vancouver, BC
Winnipeg, MB
Toronto, ON
Montreal, QC
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Canada Employed Population - Annual % Change
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Bil.
Cross-Border Investment - North America
United States Canada
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices
Non-Major Market-Suburban
Major Market-CBD Non-Major Market-CBD
Major Market-Suburban
Pricing recovery from recession:
Major Market-CBD 144.7%
Non-Major Market-CBD 101.1%
Major Market-Suburban 64.0%
Non-Major Market-Suburban 45.8%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
As a result of these trends, the Conference Board of Canada has
lowered its GDP forecast by one-half percentage point since the
fall of 2014 to 1.9% in 2015, a deceleration from 2.4% growth in
2014. Economic output in the Alberta and the Newfoundland and
Labrador provinces, both of which contain a significant amount
of natural resource production, is projected to shrink this year
with Alberta posting the larger decrease of about 1.5%. However,
while the provinces and cities with large concentrations of energy
employment and the federal government face significant challenges
this year, other markets such as Toronto and Vancouver should fare
better due to steady demand from technology companies, as well
as international firms opening offices or expanding in these cities.
The Conference Board projects that economic growth in British
Columbia, Manitoba and Ontario will approach 3% this year.
5. Top Markets for Absorption
Q4 2014 - North America
MARKET ABSORPTION (MSF)
Houston, TX 2.18
St. Louis, MO 1.32
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC 1.18
Los Angeles, CA 1.05
Phoenix, AZ 1.03
Boston, MA 0.97
Atlanta, GA 0.94
NYC - Midtown South 0.93
Philadelphia, PA 0.91
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 0.88
Largest Q-o-Q Decrease in Overall Vacancy Rate
Q4 2014 - North America
MARKET
VACANCY RATE
Q3 2014
VACANCY RATE
Q4 2014
BASIS-POINT
CHANGE
Stamford, CT 20.0% 18.1% -189
Oakland, CA 14.3% 12.4% -187
St. Louis, MO 12.5% 10.7% -175
Savannah, GA 19.3% 17.7% -155
Los Angeles -
Inland Empire, CA
18.4% 17.0% -137
Raleigh/Durham/
Chapel Hill, NC
11.0% 9.9% -116
Bakersfield, CA 7.4% 6.2% -116
Orange County, CA 15.2% 14.1% -107
Jacksonville, FL 12.3% 11.3% -105
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 9.8% 8.8% -96
North America 13.1% 12.8% -27
Lowest Overall Vacancy Rates
Q4 2014 - North America
MARKET VACANCY MARKET VACANCY
Bakersfield, CA 6.2% NYC - Midtown South 7.9%
Toronto, ON 7.3% Pittsburgh, PA 8.1%
Winnipeg, MB 7.4% Nashville, TN 8.4%
Montréal, QC 7.4% Portland, OR 8.5%
San Francisco, CA 7.5% San Jose - Silicon Valley 8.8%
North America 12.8%
Source: Colliers International
5 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
Saskatoon market posted nearly a four percentage-point increase in
vacancy during the quarter, impacted by a slowdown in demand from
tenants engaged in natural resource production. The next-largest
increases in vacancy occurred in Ottawa and Toronto, the Canadian
metro areas with the most new supply delivered in Q4 2014.
Absorption & Tenant Demand
Like the overall U.S. economy, office absorption finished 2014 on
a high note. The U.S. and Canada recorded a combined 25.2 MSF
of absorption during Q4, accounting for nearly one-third of the
2014 North American annual total of 77.7 MSF of absorption. The
U.S. accounted for a disproportionately large share of absorption,
representing 98% of combined U.S. and Canadian absorption in both
Q4 and 2014 despite accounting for only 93% of inventory. Within
the U.S., the South and the West accounted for an outsized share of
absorption relative to their respective shares of total inventory.
Absorption in the overall U.S. office market hit the highest level
since 2006. Although urban gateway cities have garnered the most
attention thus far in the cycle, both CBD and suburban markets
posted significant absorption during the year with both reaching
their highest respective levels since 2006 as well. Top markets for
absorption generally were tech- and energy-driven metro areas
including Houston, Boston, Midtown South Manhattan and San
Francisco. However, recovering Sunbelt markets including Atlanta
and Phoenix also ranked high for absorption in 2014, reflecting
positive economic trends and the migration to and expansions by
firms in these markets.
Demand from tech and other creative tenants, especially in urban
live/work/play areas and traditional tech enclaves appealing
to current and prospective employees, showed little sign of a
slowdown in 2014 and into early 2015. Several large leases were
signed by creative firms in New York in recent months, including
Amazon’s first major Manhattan office lease for 470,000 square
feet in Herald Square, an expansion by AMC Networks for 330,000
square feet at Penn Plaza and 194,000 square feet by Buzzfeed in
the robust Midtown South submarket. Reflecting strong demand for
an urban environment, GSN Games announced plans to move its
Boston office from suburban Waltham to Downtown Boston in order
to attract top talent. Also in Boston, CVS plans to open a digital
innovation office to benefit from proximity to both the medical and
tech communities, relocating some employees from the pharmacy
company’s suburban headquarters in Rhode Island and hiring
additional employees during the next few years.
Other major leases by technology firms included SpaceX’s
announcement of a planned office in Seattle’s Eastside submarket
with up to 1,000 employees focused on satellite technologies to
capitalize on the area’s deep technology and aerospace talent
base. Also in Seattle, Facebook will substantially increase its local
footprint with a recent lease at the new Dexter Station project
in tech hub South Lake Union, enabling the firm to increase its
local workforce four-fold during the next few years to up to 2,000
employees. Indicative of the strength of the Silicon Valley office
market, ServiceNow recently leased the entire 328,000 square-foot
Campus at Lawson Lane in Santa Clara, a project that commenced
6. North American Downtown Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed
this quarter in your CBD/downtown, did
most tenants:
North American Downtown Markets:
What was the trend in Free Rent (in
months) offered by CBD landlords this
quarter?
North American Downtown Markets:
What was the trend for Tenant Improvement
allowances offered by CBD landlords this
quarter?
North American Suburban Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed
this quarter in your suburban market, did
most tenants:
Source: Colliers International
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q4 Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vac Rate (%)
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.7
2.1
2.2
3.4
3.5
Saskatoon, SK
Victoria, BC
Waterloo Region, ON
Winnipeg, MB
Regina, SK
Halifax, NS**
Edmonton, AB
Vancouver, BC
Calgary, AB
Toronto, ON
Montreal, QC
N.A. Downtown Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in
your CBD/downtown, did most tenants:
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Expand, 20.6%
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Contract,
17.6%
N.A. Downtown Markets:
What was the trend for tenant Improvement allowances
offered by CBD landlords this quarter?
Less, 9.1%
Same, 64.9%Same, 64.9%
More, 14.3%
N/A, 11.7%
14.6 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1
0.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q4 Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vacancy%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vac Rate (%)
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
-332.7
-159.7
-78.0
-57.2
-41.7
-38.9
-15.8
9.6
10.1
30.9
87.3
327.5
-400.0-300.0-20
0.0-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0300.0400.0
Thousands SF
Calgary, AB
Halifax, NS**
Saskatoon, SK
Edmonton, AB
Ottawa, ON
Victoria, BC
Regina, SK
Waterloo Region, ON
Vancouver, BC
Winnipeg, MB
Toronto, ON
Montreal, QC
N.A. Downtown Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in
your CBD/downtown, did most tenants:
N.A. Downtown Markets:
What was the trend in Free Rent (in months) offered by
CBD landlords this quarter?
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Expand, 20.6%
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Contract,
17.6%
Less, 15.6%
More, 10.4%
N/A, 11.7%
Same, 62.3%Same, 62.3%
N.A. Downtown Markets:
What was the trend for tenant Improvement allowances
offered by CBD landlords this quarter?
N.A. Suburban Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in
your suburban market, did most tenants:
Expand, 26.0%
Holding
Steady, 50.6%
Holding
Steady, 50.6%
Contract, 14.3%
N/A, 9.1%
Less, 9.1%
Same, 64.9%Same, 64.9%
More, 14.3%
N/A, 11.7%
14.6 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1
0.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q4 Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vacancy%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vac Rate (%)
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
N.A. Downtown Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in
your CBD/downtown, did most tenants:
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Expand, 20.6%
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Contract,
17.6%
N.A. Downtown Markets:
What was the trend for tenant Improvement allowances
offered by CBD landlords this quarter?
Less, 9.1%
Same, 64.9%Same, 64.9%
More, 14.3%
N/A, 11.7%
14.6 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1
0.0
327.5Toronto, ON
N.A. Downtown Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in
your CBD/downtown, did most tenants:
N.A. Downtown Markets:
What was the trend in Free Rent (in months) offered by
CBD landlords this quarter?
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Expand, 20.6%
Holding
Steady, 61.8%
Contract,
17.6%
Less, 15.6%
More, 10.4%
N/A, 11.7%
Same, 62.3%Same, 62.3%
N.A. Downtown Markets:
What was the trend for tenant Improvement allowances
offered by CBD landlords this quarter?
N.A. Suburban Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in
your suburban market, did most tenants:
Expand, 26.0%
Holding
Steady, 50.6%
Holding
Steady, 50.6%
Contract, 14.3%
N/A, 9.1%
Less, 9.1%
Same, 64.9%Same, 64.9%
More, 14.3%
N/A, 11.7%
6 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
construction before the recession, was put on hold in 2008 and has
sat vacant since its completion in 2012.
Non-tech firms continue to open innovation offices in tech markets
across the country, such as Best Buy’s recent announcement of
a planned technology office in Seattle’s South Lake Union several
blocks from Amazon’s headquarters, Capital One’s innovation center
in San Francisco and the McDonald’s digital strategy team’s new
lease in Chicago’s tech-heavy River North submarket. Markets and
submarkets adjacent to leading tech centers continue to benefit
from a lack of available and/or affordable space in prime areas. For
example, demand has been growing for space in West Los Angeles’
Playa Vista, Culver City and El Segundo/Beach Cities submarkets due
to a shortage of space and high rents in Santa Monica to the north.
Google is poised to substantially increase its Los Angeles presence
with its recent purchase of 12 acres in Playa Vista that are zoned
for about 900,000 square feet of commercial space. Also, Yahoo
recently decided to move its Westside operations from Santa Monica
to Tishman Speyer’s The Collective at Playa Vista, which is scheduled
to deliver in mid-2015.
Lower-cost markets in the South, Midwest and Mountain regions
continue to attract firms from higher-cost areas. Mercedes-Benz
recently announced plans to relocate its U.S. headquarters from New
Jersey to Atlanta’s Central Perimeter submarket in 2017 in the latest
example of an auto manufacturer moving its corporate office from a
Northern city to the Southeast in closer proximity to its manufacturing
facilities. In a cost-savings move, coffee company Farmer Brothers
plans to sell its headquarters in Torrance, CA in Los Angeles County
and relocate to either Dallas-Fort Worth or Oklahoma City. On the
heels of Sedgwick’s 2014 announcement that it would move 275
administrative positions to Kansas City, another San Francisco-
based law firm, Littler Mendelson announced in early 2015 that it will
relocate 100 back-office positions to Kansas City, reflecting the trend
of companies dividing functions into the lowest-cost locations that also
provide access to qualified talent. This trend is occurring with tech
companies as well. Cloud-based HR service Zenefits is the latest Bay
Area-based tech company to announce an expansion into the Phoenix
market, leasing 100,000 square feet in Scottsdale with plans to add
1,300 employees in the area during the next three years.
The space efficiency trend has contributed to a slower recovery
during this cycle relative to the amount of job creation activity as
tenants across both the public and private sectors are using less
space per employee. This is a long-term trend that will continue to
impact the office market through this cycle and beyond as leases
roll. In the public sector, the General Services Administration (GSA)
has focused on extending leases through short-term deals over the
last few years and now is faced with half of its leases rolling over
during the next five years. As one of the most aggressive downsizers
in terms of space usage, densification across the GSA’s portfolio
will impact the Washington, DC market as well as other markets
with a significant federal government presence. The GSA has been
consolidating employees in modern properties capable of handling
dense configurations, and thus older, less adaptable buildings could
struggle to attract and retain federal tenants.
7. Source: Colliers International
Source: Colliers International
7 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
Construction Activity
Construction activity increased further in Q4 2014 driven by
tightening market conditions and positive economic trends. At
year-end, approximately 116 MSF were under construction in the
87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers, which was up
from 110 MSF in Q3 2014 and 88 MSF in Q4 2013. The increase
is entirely due to the up-tick in activity in the U.S. as Canadian
office construction has remained relatively flat at around 20 MSF
under construction during the last year. However, the amount of
square footage under construction in the U.S. is still about 20%
less than the 121 MSF under way in Q2 2008 at the peak of the last
development cycle.
Construction remains highly concentrated in a small number of
leading markets. The top 10 markets for square footage under
way at year-end 2014 accounted for nearly 60% of all construction
activity in the 87 markets tracked by Colliers, roughly the same
proportion as one year earlier. Primarily, these markets are the
strongest tech and energy markets that are ahead of the overall
office market recovery, including Houston, Silicon Valley, Seattle,
San Francisco and Boston. Of the 84 markets reporting Q4
2014 data, 31 markets had 100,000 square feet or less of office
construction under way, including 23 markets with no construction
under way. This was on par with one year earlier, when 28 of
86 markets reporting Q4 2013 data had 100,000 square feet
of space or less under way, including 22 with no office space
under construction. Development also remains concentrated in
urban areas in response to tenant and employee preferences
for a dynamic urban environment. About 41% of space under
construction in the markets tracked by Colliers is located in CBD
markets, which account for slightly more than one-third of
existing inventory.
Top Markets for Office Space Under Construction
Q4 2014 - North America
MARKET CONSTRUCTION (MSF)
Houston, TX 17.13
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 8.09
Dallas, TX 6.87
Washington DC 6.17
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 5.98
San Francisco, CA 5.16
Toronto, ON 5.09
Calgary, AB 4.95
Boston, MA 4.56
NYC - Midtown South 4.17
Construction as % of Existing Inventory
Q4 2014 - North America
MARKET
SQUARE FEET
UNDERWAY
% OF
EXISTING INVENTORY
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 8,086,492 10.8%
Edmonton, AB 2,316,868 8.7%
Houston, TX 17,134,157 8.0%
Calgary, AB 4,950,500 7.4%
Vancouver, BC 3,279,952 6.0%
San Francisco, CA 5,161,899 5.8%
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 5,983,892 5.3%
Regina, SK 224,875 5.0%
Stockton, CA 306,000 3.7%
Toronto, ON 5,088,689 3.6%
North America 115,712,234 1.8%
Beyond these leading markets, construction is focused on the
strongest markets and submarkets. For example, developers broke
ground in late 2014 on the 630,000 square-foot 300 South Tryon
office tower in the Charlotte CBD, which had an 8.2% vacancy rate
in Q4 2014, 270 bps lower than the overall Charlotte market’s
vacancy rate. In Los Angeles, nearly two-third of the space under
construction is in Hollywood and West Los Angeles, submarkets
with vacancy significantly below the market average and in which
local tech and creative demand has been concentrated. On the
heels of a string of successful redevelopment projects in Chicago’s
Fulton Market area led by the Google-anchored 1K Fulton project,
Sterling Bay recently announced plans to complete a building on a
purely speculative basis that was partially constructed during the
last tech boom. Reflecting the preference for an urban location,
Highwood Properties is building an office tower in Nashville’s CBD
for Bridgestone Americas, which will relocate from its current
headquarters near the airport.
The energy sector slowdown has ignited fears regarding the impact
of the large amount of recently completed supply and space under
construction in several markets, notably Houston and Calgary. These
two markets account for nearly 20% of construction under way in
the U.S. and Canadian markets that Colliers tracks. Although Q4
statistics indicate relative strength in both markets, we are seeing an
increase in available sublease space and concern regarding lease-up
of the significant amount of speculative space yet to hit the market,
especially in areas such as West Houston/the Energy Corridor and
Downtown Calgary that, until recently, were driven by significant
energy industry growth. The ultimate impact of this new supply in
2015 hinges on oil prices for which expert predictions vary wildly.
However, prices currently are at a level indicating further weakening
in markets with large concentrations of oil industry activity, a
significant risk as additional new supply comes online.
In addition to ground-up construction, interest in repositioning
and renovating older office and industrial properties to appeal to
modern tenants remains strong. A joint fund of PM Realty Group
8. 8 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
and Roseview Group is repositioning One CambridgePark Drive to
capitalize on strong demand for properties proximate to public transit
in the hot Cambridge, MA submarket. In Downtown Los Angeles’
Arts District, GPI Companies and Atlas Capital recently announced
plans to transform a Coca-Cola production warehouse into creative
office and retail space, the latest in a series of conversions of
industrial properties in the area. Also in the Arts District, Shorenstein
purchased a former Ford Motor factory in late 2014 for repositioning
for creative office and retail use. These types of projects not
only offer the type of space favored by many tech tenants, such
as large floorplates and windows and high ceilings, but also are
breathing new life into aging industrial areas across the country and
responding to many younger workers’ preference for an urban live/
work/play environment.
Capital Markets & Transaction Activity
Investor capital continues to target the perceived safe-haven of North
American markets, especially the U.S. Combined U.S. and Canadian
transaction volume reached $124 billion in 2014 according to Real
Capital Analytics (RCA), although this was only about half the peak
12-month trailing transaction volume of $243 billion in Q3 2007.
Capital generally has been focused on major gateway markets as
well as property types in greater favor among investors, especially
multifamily. The six U.S. “major markets” as defined by RCA
accounted for 23 of the 25 largest office transactions in 2014, as well
as nearly two-thirds of U.S. office transaction volume during the year.
Global economic weakness will likely continue to drive both domestic
and foreign investors to U.S. office properties in 2015. According to
the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate’s (AFIRE) annual
survey, the U.S. remains by far the preferred location for foreign
investors with 90% of respondents planning to maintain or increase
the size of their U.S. portfolios in 2015. The U.S. also was considered
the most stable and secure country for investment, as well as offering
the best opportunity for capital appreciation by a wide margin over
second-place Germany and Spain, respectively.
Although gateway assets should continue to be pursued heavily by
domestic and foreign investors alike, we expect investors to look
beyond these core investments and geographies for greater returns
in 2015, particularly as more markets participate in the economic
recovery. Markets that posted significant office-using employment
gains and absorption in 2014, such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Raleigh-
Durham, Nashville, Phoenix and San Diego, will likely increasingly
appear on the radar of investors priced out of or unwilling to
compete for trophy assets in gateway CBDs.
Office Transaction Volume
Q4 2014 - North America
Moody’s/RCA
Commercial Property Price Indices
Cross-Border Office Investment
North America
Note: Latest data as of Q4 2014; all data are 12-month trailing
Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International
Note: Latest data as of December 2014
Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International
Note: Data includes cross-border capital flows into each country
Source: Real Capital Analytics
0.0
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
1.0%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.5%
2.0%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
Office Transaction Volume - Q4 2014 - NA
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Months
Office-Using Employment
Financial Activities
Total Employment
Professional & Business Services
Millions SF
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.7
2.1
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
Victoria, BC
Waterloo Region, ON
Winnipeg, MB
Regina, SK
Halifax, NS**
Edmonton, AB
Montreal, QC
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.0%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.5%
2.0%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
Office Transaction Volume - Q4 2014 - NA
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Bil.
Cross-Border Investment - North America
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Months
United States Canada
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices
Non-Major Market-Suburban
Major Market-CBD Non-Major Market-CBD
Major Market-Suburban
Office-Using Employment
Financial Activities
Total Employment
Professional & Business Services
Millions SF
Pricing recovery from recession:
Major Market-CBD 144.7%
Non-Major Market-CBD 101.1%
Major Market-Suburban 64.0%
Non-Major Market-Suburban 45.8%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q4 Q1
2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vacancy%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vac Rate (%)
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
-332.7
-159.7
-78.0
-57.2
-41.7
-38.9
-15.8
9.6
10.1
30.9
87.3
327.5
-400.0-300.0-20
0.0-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0300.0400.0
Thousands SF
Calgary, AB
Halifax, NS**
Saskatoon, SK
Edmonton, AB
Ottawa, ON
Victoria, BC
Regina, SK
Waterloo Region, ON
Vancouver, BC
Winnipeg, MB
Toronto, ON
Montreal, QC
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.7
2.1
2.2
3.4
3.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ottawa, ON
Saskatoon, SK
Victoria, BC
Waterloo Region, ON
Winnipeg, MB
Regina, SK
Halifax, NS**
Edmonton, AB
Vancouver, BC
Calgary, AB
Toronto, ON
Montreal, QC
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Canada Employed Population - Annual % Change
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.0%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.5%
2.0%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
Office Transaction Volume - Q4 2014 - NA
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Bil.
Cross-Border Investment - North America
-4%
0%
4%
8%
United States Canada
100
150
200
250
300
Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices
Millions SF
Expand, 26.0%
Holding
Steady, 50.6%
Holding
Steady, 50.6%
Contract, 14.3%
N/A, 9.1%
Less, 9.1%
Same, 64.9%Same, 64.9%
More, 14.3%
N/A, 11.7%
14.6 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1
0.0
Pricing recovery from recession:
Major Market-CBD 144.7%
Non-Major Market-CBD 101.1%
Major Market-Suburban 64.0%
Non-Major Market-Suburban 45.8%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
9. 9 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
Outlook
The U.S. and Canadian office markets are at different points in the
office market cycle and heading in opposite directions. Whereas
the U.S. markets generally are expected to post further occupancy
and rent gains as well as positive absorption in Q1 2015, we expect
negative absorption as well as rent and occupancy declines in the
Canadian markets. Construction will likely continue to tick up in the
U.S. in line with strengthening tenant demand and a lack of either
a particular type or large block of space, or space in a specific
market or submarket. However, with the relatively slow pace of
recovery and still-elevated vacancy rate, construction financing
remains prudent at this point in the cycle, limiting supply-side risk
in most markets. The greatest risk to the outlook in 2015 is the
energy industry, which faces considerable uncertainty, as well as
a large amount of supply set to come online in the major oil-driven
markets. However, this risk is confined to a handful of markets,
with the majority of U.S. markets in the sweet spot in terms of
strengthening tenant demand and still-low levels of construction
activity.
We expect transaction volume to increase further in 2015 due to
the influx of both foreign and domestic capital sources, as well as
investors becoming increasingly confident in the broadening of
the economic and office market recoveries. Given these positive
economic trends, the Fed will likely begin raising interest rates
this year, but at a measured pace. Cap rate-to-Treasury spreads
remain wide relative to pre-recession levels, and property types
and geographies that have been in less favor up to this point in the
recovery offer particularly attractive risk-adjusted returns, which
should drive investor interest to these properties and markets as
interest rates finally begin to increase.