The unique properties of engineered ceramics – chemical, thermal, electrical, and structural - enable clean, consistent wafer processing, front-end semiconductor chip fabrication, and back-end device packaging. The presentation will provide an overview of the critical role that ceramic materials play in meeting the stringent requirements of this cutting-edge and continuously evolving industry.
- Beyond Moore’s Law – Heresy or Reality?
- Industry and technology trends
- Citius, Altius, Fortius
- Application drivers and requirements
- What Ceramics bring to the party
- Critical properties and challenges
Speaker Bio
With over 25 years’ experience in the ceramics industry focussed primarily in the Semiconductor, Catalysis, and Oil & Gas segments, Dean has held various positions in Business/General Management, Technology, Operations, and Consulting at CoorsTek, Saint-Gobain, RJ Lee Group, and Risø National Laboratory. His career has taken him all over the globe, including living and working in both Denmark and Germany.
In addition to an M.B.A. from the University of Pittsburgh, Dean holds an M.S. in Ceramic Science and Engineering from Rutgers University and a B.S. in Ceramic Engineering from The Ohio State University.
Dean’s primary interests lie in the translation of application-related opportunities to materials solutions through cross-functional collaboration in the identification, development, industrialization, and commercialization of technology.
4. 4
“Age of Si” limited by:
• Heat (thermodynamics)
• Leakage (quantum mechanics)
Remains effective “Coordination device”
BEYOND MOORE’S LAW
“Moore’s Law is more what you’d
call a ‘guideline’ than actual rule”
Image: Intel
5. 5
GLOBAL DATA
GENERATED EVERY DAY
294 BILLION
E-mails
230 MILLION
Tweets
1+ BILLION
Google Searches
STORAGE CAPACITY
ON A SINGLE DRIVE
1956:
2 Digital Photos
2020:
12 MILLION
Digital Photos
Source: IBM
1 Zettabyte = 1 Sextillion (1021) bytes
BEYOND MOORE’S LAW
DIGITAL DATA STORED
WORLDWIDE
2018:
~4.4 zettabytes
2020:
~44 zettabytes
6. 6
A.I. + Big Data Era
Mobile + Social Media Era
PC + Internet Era
MARKET EVOLUTION
Avg. WFE
$25B
Avg. WFE
$32B
Avg. WFE
$45B
Sources: 2000 – 2009 Gartner. 2010 – 2016 Gartner.
Average WFE 2017 – 2020 based on Applied Material estimates.
2000 2010 2017 2020
Layers of Demand Drivers
7. 7
“Internet of Things” (IoT)
EXPLOSION OF DATA GENERATION
A city of 1M people will generate 200M GB of data per day by 2020
Source: Applied Materials model based on forecasts
published by Cisco, Intel, Western Digital.
SMART BUILDINGS
55M
GB/day
SMART FACTORIES
50M
GB/day
PUBLIC SAFETY
SYSTEMS
50M
GB/day
SOCIAL MEDIA +
OTHER
2M
GB/day
SMART VEHICLES
40M
GB/day
SMART AIRPLANES
4M
GB/day
8. 8
• 3D - NAND (5x ≥ x 96, 128)
• String stacking (3D - NAND)
• Multiple Patterning DRAM
(1x, 1y, 1z)
• High Aspect Ratio DRAM
• Next-Gen Memory (Cross-
point, ReRam, MRam)
MEMORY PROCESSES
• ALE
• ALD
• EUV Lithography
• Advanced EPI
CITIUS, ALTIUS, FORTIUS
LAM Research
Applied
Materials
Too Many Options?
LOGIC
• Bulk FinFET (≤10 nm, N20/N7)
• SOI FinFET (N7/N5)
• <10 nm Line Width
• Gate-All-Around
(GAA)/Nanowire)
• GAAFETS (≤ 5 nm), (X)FETs
9. 9
DRAM
Logic
Source: Lam Research
NAND
>mid 2x
20 nm/
1x nm
<1y nm
Gen 5+
Gen 4
Gen 3
3D NAND
Gen 1/2/3
2D NAND
<10 nm
14/16 nm
>20 nm
2017 20202017 2020 2017 2020
DRAM NAND
Increasing WFE Intensity to Support BIT
Supply Growth
WFE Needed to Achieve 1% BIT Supply Growth
Storage (Memory)
Node ReductionNext-Gen Architecture
CITIUS, ALTIUS, FORTIUS
Increasing Process Complexity and Intensity
10. 10
Affordability
&
Sustainability
Process
Complexity
Output Density Product Cost Sustainability
• Wafer size
• Wafer yield, full
usage
Surface
Integrity
Selectivity Damage Killer Defects
Metal
Contamination • Particle generation
• Purity
• Robustness
Considerations
Atomic-Scale
Precision
High Aspect
Ratio Structures
Feature-Scale
Uniformity
Wafer-Scale
Uniformity
Repeatability
• Enabling processes
- ALD, ALE, EUV
• Chamber matching
CITIUS, ALTIUS, FORTIUS
Source: Lam Research
11. 11
Extreme Conditions Manufacturing Industry
Chemical
Thermal
Defects
Scale
Ceramic-
Specific
Equipment
CollaborationSkills
Metrology
Specification
Management of
Change
Key Challenges
WHAT CERAMICS BRING TO THE PARTY
16. 16 CoorsTek Confidential
The average IC design cost for a 16nm/14nm chip is $80 million,
compared to $30 million for a 28nm planar device, according to
Gartner. It costs $271 million to design a 7nm chip, according to
Gartner.
Intel is America’s largest high-technology capital expenditure investor
($5.1 billion in the U.S. 2015) and its third largest investor in global
R&D ($12.1 billion in 20151).
Chipmakers want EUV for 7nm and/or 5nm
Others agree. “7nm will be a big node,” said Rick Gottscho,
executive vice president and chief technology officer at Lam
Research. “The industry cadence seems to be that every other
node is bigger.
Samsung will invest $7 billion over a three-year period to ramp
up a Chinese fab to expand production of NAND flash memory
that’s in strong demand for smartphones and other mobile
devices. 08-17
At $99.6 billion, the DRAM market is forecast to be by
far the largest single product category in the IC industry
in 2018, exceeding the expected NAND flash market
($62.1 billion) by $37.5 billion. (IC Industry)
The '22nm,' '32nm' etc. number you refer to is the device half-
pitch. This number is half of the distance between a feature on
one transistor and an identical feature on the next transistor
over.
17. 17 CoorsTek Confidential
3D NAND will continue to be a big driver for equipment in 2018. In 3D
NAND alone, Samsung’s capital spending outlays will reach a
staggering $14 billion in 2017, according to IC Insights. In total,
Samsung’s capital outlays are $26 billion in 2017, including 3D NAND,
DRAM ($7 billion) and foundry ($5 billion). (SemiEngineering)
In 2017, memory has been the big driver for fab equipment.
2018 is expected to follow a similar pattern. “The tremendous
demand for memory technology has produced record shipment
levels,” Applied’s Sherman said. “DRAM and NAND content in
smartphones continues to grow. The average NAND content in
smartphones has been growing by roughly 50% recently, going
from approximately 24 gigabytes in 2016 to approximately 38
gigabytes today. (SemiEngineering)
SSDs also are driving demand for NAND.
Besides the conversion rate, there are questions about how far 3D NAND
will scale. In 2017, 3D NAND suppliers have been migrating from 48 layer
to 64 layer devices with 96 layer products in R&D. “We will see 96 layer
devices (in 2018),” Lam’s Gottscho said. “The new generation will double
the density every year.”
The development of a 96-layer NAND device is challenging, however.
Today’s etch tools and hard masks could run out of steam for this
technology. As a result, the industry is migrating towards a manufacturing
technique called string stacking. For this, vendors will develop two 48-
layer 3D NAND devices and connect them, thereby forming a 96-layer 3D
device. “So we’ll have two-tier 3D NAND—48 plus 48 layers. That will be
done out of necessity,” Gottscho said.
With string stacking, 3D NAND could scale up to 512 or more layers.
String stacking, however, adds more manufacturing costs to the equation,
presenting some new and difficult challenges for the industry
German engineering company Bosch has placed a
big bet on the future value of the IoT, with a €1 billion
investment to build a wafer fabrication centre in
Dresden, Germany. 06-17
3D NAND will lead product sector spending, growing 3
percent each in 2018 and 2019, to US$16 billion and
US$17 billion, respectively. DRAM will see robust growth
of 26 percent in 2018, to US$14 billion, but is expected to
decline 14 percent to US$12 billion in 2019. Foundries will
increase equipment spending by 2 percent to US$17
billion in 2018 and by 26 percent to US$22 billion in 2019,
primarily to support 7nm investments and ramp of new
capacity (Semi 03/18)