When an industry develops exponentially it is often because it is based on Semiconductors. The next big thing will be where the T factor challenges the H factor.

1. The exponential force:
Semiconductors
Claus Aasholm

2. Moore’s LawThe number of transistors in a integrated circuit
doubles every one to two years

3. What do you like the best?
Exponential Growth
Linear Growth
No Growth
Negative Growth

4. Moore’s law equal
60-80% Growth Rate

5. Semiconductor
Manufacturing

6. Silicon Sand Ingot Crystal Silicon Wafer Semiconductor Chip

7. Moore’s 2nd Law
Fab Investments increase exponentially
=

8. “TOO DIRTY!”

9. “The Mother of all Future Industry”
“The Value Adder Industry”

11. Semi MarketSamsung
Intel
Hynix
Micron
Broadcom
Qualcomm
TI
Toshiba
Western
Digital
NXP
Infineon
Nvidia
ST
Mediatek
Sony
Renesas
OnSemi
AMD
ADI
Microchip
Skyworks
Rohm
SMIC
Xilinx
Marvell
15,558
14,763
5,922
5,566
4,190 4,121
3,639
3,149
2,366 2,202 2,034 1,937 1,923 1,874 1,841 1,785
1,338 1,222 1,148
972 901 868 751 615 579
Semiconductor Revenue Q2-17
Top 25 Companies (msud)

12. Micron
Hynix
OnSemi
Samsung
Nvidia
ADI
Sony
Globalfoun..
Huawei
Tsinghua
Toshiba
Microchip
Broadcom
Skyworks
AMD
ST
Renesas
TI
Infineon
Intel
NXP
Qualcomm
Sharp
UMC
TSMC
49,1%
33,8%
25,0%
25,0%
23,2%
10,9%
28,3%
11,2%
12,9%
92,1%
72,8%
52,4%
48,4%
47,4%
21,6%
19,9%
19,8%
19,0%
12,9%
-0,5%
2,8%
4,9%
9,1%
6,8%
6,3%
Average
Revenue Growth
Semiconductor Companies
Reported to Date Oct 30th 2017
Type
Congo
Foundry
Pureplay

13. What makes markets change?
“Market events are connected”
“Market performance is easier to predict than company performance”

14. The T factor
Right
Resourc
es
Right
Strategy
Luck
Right
Place
Time
Ability to
implement
T Factor

15. 1 1 1 1
2 1 4 5
Valuation TOP US Companies

16. 2017 October TOP 5 + 1
Cap Change
Apple 842 42%
Google 716 26%
Microsoft 645 39%
Amazon 528 35%
Facebook 516 37%
Berkshire 463 30%
Alibaba 447 72%
Johnson & Johnson 380 22%
JP Morgan Chase 359 47%
Exxon 354 -4%
T
T
The first Trillon $ Company?

17. T-Factor companies
invest heavily into R&D

18. The H-Factor
Anything human becomes more expensive

19. “The T-Factor is not Semiconductors.
Semiconductors enable the T-factor.”
Insight:
“Look for markets where
T factor will challenge H Factor”

20. Moore’s law equal 60-80% Growth Rate
Computational
Power
Memory
Capacity
Communication
Bandwidth
At similar cost

21. Communication
Semiconductors
Moore’s Law Memory
Processing
The next big thing

22. Communication
Semiconductors
Moore’s Law
Tele/Datacom
The Internet
Memory
Processing
Mobile phone
Mobile Data
Smart PhoneMobile Internet
The Platform
revolution
The next big thing
The IoT
revolution

24. Dot Com Crash
March 11th, 2000
8 Trillion $ lost
78% average drop
Silicon Valley
95% Average
The Internet

28. Couple grams of Silicon
250$ of Cost + 50$ other
849$ Retail Value

29. The next big thing in Comms
Not just 4G+1

30. “Value is not always harvested
the same place it is created.”
Insight:
“Value is moving from product to
Service and from service to platform”
“Popularity does not equal value”

31. Communication
Semiconductors
Moore’s Law
Tele/Datacom
The Internet
Memory
Processing
Mobile phone
Mobile Data
Smart PhoneMobile Internet
The Platform
revolution
The next big thing
The IoT
revolution

32. Communication
Semiconductors
Moore’s Law
Tele/Datacom
The Internet
Memory
Processing
Hard disk
Solid State Flash
Tape
Mobile phone
Mobile Data
Smart PhoneMobile Internet
Datacenter Cloud Storage
The Platform
revolution
The Cloud
Revolution
The next big thing
The IoT
revolution

33. Memory
Capacity
“When we started Apple,
it cost a million dollars to
hold one song!”

34. Price 45$Weight 1 TonPrice 50K$ 9 KB/s

39. The Solid State Revolution

40. The Cloud Revolution
DRAM NAND
16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2
0K
1K
2K
3K
4K
5K
6K
7K
8K
9K
10K
11K
12K
13K
14K
15K
16K
17K
Musd
10,170
12,161
13,735
15,915
8,425
8,870
10,109
11,452
12,172
13,665
8,434
8,755
16-Q1 16-Q2 16-Q3 16-Q4 17-Q1 17-Q2
24,1%
22,8%
29,3%
27,2%
12,7%
25,7%
30,2%
29,9%
11,8%
26,4%
30,6%
28,2%
14,5%
21,0%
20,0%
31,8%
24,9%
10,4%
13,7%
28,9%
24,4%
31,3%
10,9%
1,3%
29,1%
1,0%1,0% 1,0%
1,5%
2,1%
2,1%
1,4% 1,3%
0,8%
2,0%
0,9%
1,4%1,4%
2,1%
2,0%
0,9%
2,1%
Memory Revenue by End Market
Data Center, % of..
Mobile, % of Tota..
PC, % of Total Da..
Industrial, % of T..
Auto Other, % of ..
Automotive, % of ..
Communication, ..
Consumer, % of T..
Other, % of Total ..

42. 192GB NAND cost
150$
0,781$ pr GB
96$ for 256G
0,375$ pr GB

43. “The Cloud is creating shortages
as it pays more”
Insights:
“Flash is going to kill the Harddisk
..at some point in time”
“The Cloud is growing dramatically”

44. Communication
Semiconductors
Moore’s Law
Tele/Datacom
The Internet
Memory
Processing
Hard disk
Solid State Flash
Tape
Mainframe
Minicomputer
Server
Datacenter
Cloud Computing
Mobile phone
Mobile Data
Smart PhoneMobile Internet
Datacenter Cloud Storage
The Platform
revolution
The Cloud
Revolution
The AI
Revolution
PC
The next big thing
The IoT
revolution

46. AI

47. Company / Date
AMD Broadcom Cavium Intel Marvell Nvidia TI
16-Q1
16-Q2
16-Q3
16-Q4
17-Q1
17-Q2
17-Q3
16-Q1
16-Q2
16-Q3
16-Q4
17-Q1
17-Q2
17-Q3
16-Q1
16-Q2
16-Q3
16-Q4
17-Q1
17-Q2
16-Q1
16-Q2
16-Q3
16-Q4
17-Q1
17-Q2
17-Q3
16-Q1
16-Q2
16-Q3
16-Q4
17-Q1
17-Q2
16-Q1
16-Q2
16-Q3
16-Q4
17-Q1
17-Q2
17-Q3
16-Q1
16-Q2
16-Q3
16-Q4
17-Q1
17-Q2
17-Q3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Data
Datacenter revenue Sheet 2
Nvidia
16-Q1 16-Q2 16-Q3 16-Q4 17-Q1 17-Q2 17-Q3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Data
237.6
102.5
143.5
417.3
277.5
296.8
71.9
Datacenter revenue Sheet 2

48. NVIDIA Nvidia
16-Q1 16-Q2 16-Q3 16-Q4 17-Q1 17-Q2 17-Q3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Data
237.6
102.5
143.5
417.3
277.5
296.8
71.9
Datacenter revenue Sheet 2

49. Insights
Data is the new Oil – AI is the new drilling Platform
Programming will be overtaken
by machine learning
Systems will not be rules based.
They will be pattern based

50. Communication
Semiconductors
Moore’s Law
Tele/Datacom
The Internet
Memory
Processing
Hard disk
Solid State Flash
Tape
Mainframe
Minicomputer
Server
Datacenter
Cloud Computing
Mobile phone
Mobile Data
Smart PhoneMobile Internet
Datacenter Cloud Storage
The Platform
revolution
The Cloud
Revolution
The Big Data
Revolution
The AI
Revolution
The AIphone
revolution
PC
The next big thing
The IoT
revolution

51. Gordon and I say thank
you for your attention