What caused them? How can we prevent similar ones in the future. Titanic: Systematic Failure Little Big Horn: Leadership Failure The Donner Party: Social Disintegration New London Schoolhouse Explosion: Lack of Focus The Housing Bubble: Greed Overwhelms Reality The Kegworth Plane Crash: Trusting Experts Apollo 13: Successful Failure

2. Every catastrophe requires seven
things to go wrong.
Six Cascade events leading to the
7th event, the Catastrophe. At least
one of the Cascade events involves
human error. Thus most
catastrophes can be avoided.
Shit Doesn’t Just Happen

3. By studying past catastrophes we
can learn to avoid future ones.
Focusing on the Cascade Events and
how they can be stopped is key!
The Gift of Failure

4. Book I covers:
Titanic
Kegworth Plane Crash
Custer and Little Big Horn
Schoolhouse Explosion
Donner Party
The Housing Bubble
Apollo 13

5. The Titanic: Systematic Failure

6. "There is no danger that Titanic will
sink. The boat is unsinkable and nothing
but inconvenience will be suffered by the
passengers."
Phillip Franklin, White Star Line vice-
president, 1912

7. The Kegworth Plane Crash:
Trusting Experts

8. Passenger on British Midland Flight 92
reflecting on hearing the pilot announce
he was shutting down the right engine:
“We were thinking: ‘Why is he doing
that?’ because we saw flame coming out
of the left engine. But I was only a bread
man. What did I know?”

9. Custer and the Little Big Horn
Leadership Failure

10. “There are not enough Indians in
the world to defeat the Seventh
Cavalry."
George Armstrong Custer

11. New London Schoolhouse Explosion:
Lack of Focus

12. “I did nothing in my studies nor in my life to
prepare me for a story of the magnitude of
that New London tragedy, nor has any story
since that awful day equaled it.”
Walter Cronkite

13. The Donner Party: Social Disintegration

14. “I wish I could cry, but I cannot. If I could
forget the tragedy, perhaps I would know
how to cry again.”
Mary Graves.
Survivor, the ‘Donner Party’

15. The Housing Bubble
Greed Overwhelms Reality

16. “Monkeys in contemporary 17th century Dutch dress are shown
dealing in tulips. A satirical commentary on speculators during the
time of Tulip Mania, an economic bubble that centered around rare
tulip bulbs. At left, one monkey points to flowering tulips while
another holds up a tulip and a moneybag. Bulbs are weighed, money
is counted, a lavish business dinner is enjoyed. The monkey at left
has a list of rare tulips, his sword denotes upper class status. Farther
back, a monkey sits like a nobleman astride a horse. One in mid-
foreground draws up a bill of sale; the owl on his shoulder
symbolizes foolishness and ignobility. Brueghel is not only ridiculing
tulip speculators as brainless monkeys, the work is an object lesson
for the folly of speculating to such an extent in such a transient thing
as a mere bloom. In the denouement at right, a monkey urinates on
the now worthless tulips; fellow speculators in debt are brought
before the magistrate or weep in the dock. A frustrated buyer
brandishes his fists, while at the back right a speculator is carried to
his grave.”

17. Apollo 13: Successful Failure

18. “From this day forward, Flight Control will be known by two
words: 'Tough' and 'Competent.' Tough means we are forever
accountable for what we do or what we fail to do. We will
never again compromise our responsibilities. Every time we
walk into Mission Control we will know what we stand for.
Competent means we will never take anything for granted. We
will never be found short in our knowledge and in our skills.
Mission Control will be perfect. When you leave this meeting
today you will go to your office and the first thing you will do
there is to write 'Tough and Competent' on your blackboards. It
will never be erased. Each day when you enter the room these
words will remind you of the price paid by Grissom, White, and
Chaffee. These words are the price of admission to the ranks of
Mission Control." Gene Kranz; the Monday morning after the
Apollo 1 disaster; flight director for Apollo 13.

19. Seven Ways to Prevent Catastrophes
1. Have a Special Ops preparation mindset
2. Focus by utilizing both big picture & detail
thinkers
3. Conduct Special Forces Area Studies
4. Use the Special Forces CARVER formula
5. Have a “10th man”
6. Conduct After Action Reviews
7. Write and USE Standing Operating Procedures
(SOPs)

20. Are you interested in a presentation about various catastrophes
and how the cascade events could have been prevented?
Events covered range from human-machine interface, to
leadership, to communication, cost-cutting, engineering, group
think, perseverance, systematic failure, and more?
Catastrophes are cascade events culminating in disastrous
chaos. War is chaos. Special Forces is the most elite unit trained
for a variety of combat situations.
What makes Special Forces elite is our mindset and
preparation.
Are you interested in a presentation on how to use Special
Forces tactics, techniques and mental attitude to help your
organization anticipate and prevent potential catastrophes?
Please email bob@bobmayer.com
Summary

21. More Free Information
If you want to go directly to a document with live
links to all free apps, gear, library, and Jeep stuff,
use your camera on this QR Code. Or copy and
paste:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vwgilkne2vsq4jrhkp
gic/GEAR-
LINKS.docx?dl=0&rlkey=i858w1e2zd3irup2lcvhvlb
ma

22. More Free Information
Since Slideshare no longer supports links,
I’ve also put all the links to free apps, gear and web
pages on my web site at
www.bobmayer.com
Use the pop up from the following image there and
scroll through for what you want:

26. New York Times bestselling author, is a graduate of West Point and
former Green Beret. He’s had over 80 books published, including the
#1 bestselling series Green Berets, Time Patrol, Area 51, and Atlantis.
He’s sold over 5 million books. He was born in the Bronx and has
traveled the world. He’s lived on an island off the east coast, an island
off the west coast, in the Rocky Mountains, the Smoky Mountains and
other places, including time in East Asia studying martial arts.
They haven’t caught him yet.
www.bobmayer.com