The Green Beret Guides to Great Disasters cover 7 disasters in each, examining the 7 cascade events that led to each and what lessons can be learned to prevent similar ones in the future.

1. THE GREEN BERET GUIDE
TO GREAT DISASTERS
WHAT CAUSED THEM
AND HOW DO WE
PREVENT FUTURE ONES

3. Every catastrophe requires seven
things to go wrong.
Six Cascade events leading to the
7th event, the Catastrophe. At least
one of the Cascade events involves
human error. Thus most
catastrophes can be avoided.
Shit Doesn’t Just Happen

4. By studying past catastrophes we
can learn to avoid future ones.
Focusing on the Cascade Events and
how they can be stopped is key!
The Gift of Failure

5. The Titanic: Systematic Failure

6. "There is no danger that Titanic will
sink. The boat is unsinkable and nothing
but inconvenience will be suffered by the
passengers."
Phillip Franklin, White Star Line vice-
president, 1912
The Titanic: Systematic Failure

7. The Kegworth Plane Crash:
Trusting Experts

8. Passenger on British Midland Flight 92
reflecting on hearing the pilot announce
he was shutting down the right engine:
“We were thinking: ‘Why is he doing
that?’ because we saw flame coming out
of the left engine. But I was only a bread
man. What did I know?”
The Kegworth Plane Crash:
Trusting Experts

9. Custer and the Little Big Horn
Leadership Failure

10. “There are not enough Indians in
the world to defeat the Seventh
Cavalry."
George Armstrong Custer
Custer and the Little Big Horn
Leadership Failure

11. New London Schoolhouse Explosion:
Lack of Focus

12. “I did nothing in my studies nor in my life to
prepare me for a story of the magnitude of
that New London tragedy, nor has any story
since that awful day equaled it.”
Walter Cronkite
New London Schoolhouse Explosion:
Lack of Focus

13. The Donner Party: Social Disintegration

14. “I wish I could cry, but I cannot. If I could
forget the tragedy, perhaps I would know
how to cry again.”
Mary Graves.
Survivor, the ‘Donner Party’
The Donner Party: Social Disintegration

15. The Housing Bubble
Greed Overwhelms Reality

16. “Monkeys in contemporary 17th century Dutch dress are
shown dealing in tulips. A satirical commentary on
speculators during the time of Tulip Mania, an economic
bubble that centered around rare tulip bulbs. Brueghel is
not only ridiculing tulip speculators as brainless
monkeys, the work is an object lesson for the folly of
speculating to such an extent in such a transient thing as
a mere bloom. In the denouement at right, a monkey
urinates on the now worthless tulips; fellow speculators
in debt are brought before the magistrate or weep in the
dock. A frustrated buyer brandishes his fists, while at the
back right a speculator is carried to his grave.” Jan
Brueghel the Younger, Satire on Tulip Manica
The Housing Bubble
Greed Overwhelms Reality

17. Apollo 13: Successful Failure

18. “From this day forward, Flight Control will be known by two
words: 'Tough' and 'Competent.' Tough means we are forever
accountable for what we do or what we fail to do. We will
never again compromise our responsibilities. Every time we
walk into Mission Control we will know what we stand for.
Competent means we will never take anything for granted. We
will never be found short in our knowledge and in our skills.
Mission Control will be perfect. When you leave this meeting
today you will go to your office and the first thing you will do
there is to write 'Tough and Competent' on your blackboards. It
will never be erased. Each day when you enter the room these
words will remind you of the price paid by Grissom, White, and
Chaffee. These words are the price of admission to the ranks of
Mission Control." Gene Kranz; the Monday morning after the
Apollo 1 disaster; flight director for Apollo 13.
Apollo 13: Successful Failure

20. The Challenger: Organizational Failure

21. “I am appalled by your
recommendation.” NASA
reference recommendation by
Thiokol engineers who designed
the boosters not to launch
Challenger
The Challenger: Organizational Failure

22. The Last Czar:
Leadership Failure

23. "I am not prepared to be a tsar. I
never wanted to become one. I
know nothing of the business of
ruling." Nicholas II, last Czar of
Russia.
The Last Czar:
Leadership Failure

24. The Sultana Explosion

25. “If we arrive safe at Cairo it would be
the greatest trip ever made on the
western waters, as there were more
people on board than were ever
carried on one boat on the Mississippi
River!” William J, Gambrel, first clerk
& part owner of the steamship
Sultana.
The Sultana Explosion

26. The St. Francis Dam: Engineering Failure

27. During the Los Angeles Coroner's Inquest
William Mulholland, chief engineer, Water
Department Los Angeles said: “The only
ones I envy about this whole thing are the
ones who are dead. Whether it is good or
bad, don't blame anyone else, you just
fasten it on me. If there was an error in
human judgment, I was the human, I won't
try to fasten it on anyone else."
The St. Francis Dam: Engineering Failure

28. The Sinking of the Kursk: Poor Training and
Maintenance

29. “It's dark here to write, but I'll try by
touch. It seems like there are no
chances, 10%-20%. Let's hope that at
least someone will read this. Hello to
everyone. There is no need to despair."
Captain Lieutenant Dmitri Kolesnikov,
commander 7th Compartment (turbine
room) Russian submarine Kursk.
The Sinking of the Kursk: Poor Training and
Maintenance

30. Pearl Harbor

31. “Should hostilities once break out between Japan and the
United States, it would not be enough that we take Guam
and the Philippines, nor even Hawaii and San Francisco. To
make victory certain, we would have to march into
Washington and dictate the terms of peace in the White
House. I wonder if our politicians (who speak so lightly of a
Japanese-American war) have confidence as to the final
outcome and are prepared to make the necessary
sacrifices.” Admiral Yamamoto, Commander Japanese
Navy. (Note that this quote was used extensively for
propaganda purposes by the United States by leaving out
the last sentence)
Pearl Harbor

32. ALIVE! Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571

33. “It was repugnant. Through the eyes of our
civilized society it was a disgusting
decision. My dignity was on the floor
having to grab a piece of my dead friend
and eat it in order to survive. But then I
thought of my mother and wanted to do
my best to get back to see her. I swallowed
a piece and it was a huge step - after which
nothing happened.” Dr. Robert Canessa
ALIVE! Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571

35. Air France 447:
Human-Machine Interface Failure

36. Last warning from the flight computer:
“Pull up.”
Co-pilot yells: “We’re going to crash. I
don’t believe it. But what’s happening?”
Seconds later one of the co-pilots
exclaims “Fuck! We’re dead.”
Air France 447:
Human-Machine Interface Failure

37. The Fetterman Massacre:
A Failure to Communicate

38. "Give me 80 men and I can ride through
the whole Sioux nation.”
Boast allegedly made by Captain
Fetterman
The Fetterman Massacre:
A Failure to Communicate

39. Hillsborough Soccer Crush
Unintended Consequences

40. “There was no organised response
there at all... There was nobody in
charge, no plan, no organisation at
all... There was no resuscitation
equipment there... The scene was
just absolute chaos.”
BBC Commentator Des Lynam
Hillsborough Soccer Crush
Unintended Consequences

41. Operation Market Garden:
Strategic Blindness

42. “Many historians, with an ‘if only’ approach to the
British defeat, have focused so much on different
aspects of Operation Market Garden which went
wrong that they have tended to overlook the
central element. It was quite simply a very bad
plan right from the start and right from the top.
Every other problem stemmed from that.”
― Antony Beevor, Arnhem: The Battle for the
Bridges
Operation Market Garden:
Strategic Blindness

43. The Tenerife Airport Crash:
The Danger of Haste

44. “I knew what I had to do. I went back and
started pulling people away from the
airplane.”
Flight Attendant Dorothy Kelly
The Tenerife Airport Crash:
The Danger of Haste

45. Son of Sam:
The Explosion of Tabloid Journalism

46. “Hello from the gutters of NYC, which is filled with dog
manure, vomit, stale wine, urine, and blood. Hello from the
sewers of NYC which swallow up these delicacies when
they are washed away by the sweeper trucks.”
David Berkowitz
Son of Sam:
The Explosion of Tabloid Journalism

47. Deepwater Horizon:
Safety Lapses

48. “This company (BP) is - actually, has a
better balance sheet today than it had
before the spill.”
U.S. witness at the trial penalty phase.
Deepwater Horizon:
Safety Lapses

49. EACH BOOK COVERS SEVEN DISASTERS AND
THE SEVEN CASCADE EVENTS THAT LED TO
EACH AND THE LESSONS WE CAN LEARN.

50. Seven Ways to Prevent Catastrophes
1. Have a Special Ops preparation mindset
2. Focus by utilizing both big picture & detail
thinkers
3. Conduct Special Forces Area Studies
4. Use the Special Forces CARVER formula
5. Have a “10th man”
6. Conduct After Action Reviews
7. Write and USE Standing Operating Procedures
(SOPs)

51. Are you interested in a presentation about various
catastrophes and how the cascade events could have been
prevented?
Events covered range from human-machine interface, to
leadership, to communication, cost-cutting, engineering,
group think, perseverance, systematic failure, and more?
Catastrophes are cascade events culminating in disastrous
chaos. War is chaos. Special Forces is the most elite unit
trained for a variety of combat situations.
What makes Special Forces elite is our mindset and
preparation.
Summary

52. The Book
"The best preparation guide available, bar
none. A must have for anyone concerned
about man-made and natural disasters.
Mayer points out that preparation is key
and he walks the reader through it, each
section building on the one before. From
page one, I felt more prepared. Get it!"
Assembly Magazine.

53. More Free Information
I constantly update free, downloadable
slideshows like this on my web site for
preparation and survival and other
topics.
FREE SLIDESHOWS
Also, I conduct Area Study workshops
for those interested in properly
preparing for their specific
circumstances.

54. The guide on the left is the complete preparation and
survival guide. The one on the right is a pocket-size
manual with just the survival portion. Useful in your Grab-
n-Go bag, car and kitchen drawer.
SURVIVAL GUIDES

55. New York Times bestselling author, is a graduate of West
Point and former Green Beret. He’s had over 80 books
published, including the #1 bestselling series Green Berets,
Time Patrol, Area 51, and Atlantis. He’s sold over 5 million
books. He was born in the Bronx and has traveled the world.
He’s lived on an island off the east coast, an island off the
west coast, in the Rocky Mountains, the Smoky Mountains
and other places, including time in East Asia studying martial
arts.
He was an instructor and course developer/writer for years
at the JFK Special Warfare Center and School which trains
Green Berets and also runs the SERE school:
Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape.
www.bobmayer.com