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Middle East Political Science Notes 3-20-02
I. Authoritarian Politics: Authoritarian elite politics is totally different from
democratically elite politics in the United States.
A. The nature of the state
i. A state is a geographically bounded entity.
ii. A state has a monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
iii. A state can borrow and tax in your name.
iv. The state is sovereign. It has sovereignty. Sovereignty means
that the state controls what happens within its boundaries.
1) Third World State: Third world states have their origins in
colonialism. When Britain, France, Spain, and Germany
took over third world regions they created boundaries to
differentiate each other’s control of those boundaries. The
second step is to create state institutions such as armies,
police force, government, etc., designed to subdue local
resistance to colonialism. The subjugation of the locals
was either done directly by the forces of the colonial power
or indirectly by co-opting local elites to do the subjugation
of the masses on behalf of the colonial power. When the
colonial powers began to weaken these colonies gained
political independence. The state because a prize that local
elites competed to control. Why did that become a prize?
i. It was the only institution that had enough control
and power to subdue the masses and eliminate other
elites.
ii. It had a significant economic control of resources
that enabled the elite to insure their continuity if
they controlled that state.
iii. Third world elites often use the state for economic
development in order to pacify the population. For
example, in most third world states health care is
free and so is education. Food necessities are
subsidized by the state. The state does that because
it is authoritarian and therefore the contract between
the state and the people is “We will provide you
with these essential services in exchange you will
shut the fuck up about democracy.”
B. Weak Authoritarian States: Contrary to popular belief authoritarian states
are weak. They are not as strong or as resilient as they appear to be.
i. In the Middle East the state system only dates back to 1920 when
states were founded by colonial powers. Because of the short
history of the state people’s loyalty is for their religious
background, tribe, ethnic group, village or region.
ii. The strength of a state is directly proportional to its ability to tax
its people. In the Middle East the state is incapable to extract
1
taxes from the population. In fact, the Middle East has one of the
lowest tax rates among the world’s regions.
1) From extractive industries and controlling the import /
export trade.
2) By taxing the employees who work for the government or
state.
If you are in the private sector more than likely you will go
untaxed in the Middle East.
C. Outright Elite Rule: In the US elite rule is masked or covered up by a
democratic process. In the Middle East elite rule is direct without the
pretense of democracy. Elite rule is often brutal and participating in
politics is reserved to the elites and most of the time politics is dangerous
to your health. If elites in their competition disagree one of them either
loses their life or is forced to leave the country.
D. Military Power: All power resides in the hands of the military. Almost all
civilian governments in the Middle East are dependent on the loyalty of
the military to stay in power.
E. Masses get involved: The masses get involved in politics during
revolutionary times. During the Iranian Revolution and the Revolution in
Iraq 1958.
F. Political Authoritarianism: Most Middle Eastern authoritarianism is
political only. While the state does own and control the large means of
production the people are allowed private ownership of the small means of
production. The authoritarianism is different than totalitarianism. In the
Middle East a lot of the states allow their citizens a significant “free”
personal realm especially in the areas of religion, marriage, and of
everyday interaction being this is not political.
G. Impact of Regional Events: Since the Middle Eastern state is weak it
cannot limit the impact of international and regional events on its territory.
I. Diverse Society
Iraq is bordered by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to the south, Iran to the east, Jordan
and Syria to the west and Turkey to the north. Before 1920 there was no such
thing as Iraq. Iraq was put together as a state by the British and the French and it
was made a British colony. The most important division within the population of
Iraq is between the Sunni and Shiites in Iraq. 60-65% are Shiites centered in
Southern Iraq, 30-32% of the population are Sunni Muslims centered in central
Iraq. Historically the governing elites of Iraq came from the Sunni population in
central Iraq. The second division is ethnic division. 75-80% of the population are
Arabs. 15% to 20% of population are Kurds who are Sunni Muslims but
ethnically they have their own language and customs. They are centered in
Northern Iraq. Moreover, there are Christian minorities in Iraq known as the
Assyrians. They form approximately 3-4% of the population. There used to be a
150,000 Jewish population in Iraq. However, after the creation of the state of
Israel in 1948 they were either forced out or left on their own.
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II. Political System 1920-1958
A. Monarchy: Iraq became a British colony. British colonial style is always
through indirect governance and indirect control. What Britain does is to
usually co-opt or recruit local elites that will do British bidding. Britain
will allow those local elites autonomy and they will give them control of
the day-to-day events of the colony as long as they do not challenge
British total control.
i. The first thing that the British needed to do was give the new
state they created legitimacy. They bring King Faysal who was
deposed from Damascus and they make him king of Iraq. Faysal
overthrew the Ottomans and became a symbol of Arab
nationalism. Faysal is a Hashimite and a descendant of the
prophet.
ii. Create a social base and economic class that will support the new
monarchy. The British took the heads of the tribes and made
them the landowners. In this way they gained their loyalty. And
the rank members of the tribe became sharecroppers.
Sharecropping is when the peasant works the land that he does
not own. He gives a share of the produce to the landowner and
keeps the rest to themselves.
iii. The British created a legislature and made the landowners
representatives of the people in the legislature.
iv. The British signed treaties with the new Iraqi entity giving it
local autonomy and creating a long-term alliance between Britain
and Iraq.
After signing the treaties with the new Iraqi entity that Britain created the Iraqi
state began extending its influence over the entire Iraqi territory. However, there
was significant resistance to the new state and its influence. The first to rebel
against the Iraqi state were the Kurds. They rebelled in 1922, 1924, 1930, 1931
and 1932. The Kurds rebel but with the blessing of Britain the Iraqi army was
allowed to crush the resistance. The second group to rebel against central
authority were the Christian Assyrians and the Iraqi army sent a punitive force led
by Bakr Sidqi who crushed the rebellion and his status within the Iraqi armed
forces grew. The final rebellion came from the Shiites in the South and that
rebellion was also put down by force. King Faysal dies in 1933 from natural
causes. After his death the legitimacy of the Iraqi monarchy deteriorates. His son
Ghazi becomes king but his son is fond of car racing and he dies in a car accident.
The son of Ghazi is too young to become king so his brother Abdul Illah becomes
king.
B. New Political Groups 1930-1940: With the deterioration of the legitimacy
of the monarchy power devolved from the monarchy to new political groups
that were rising in the country and eventually real power devolved to the
military. Three important groups:
1) Al-`Ahd: This group was led by General Nuri Al-Saeed. It was a
pro-British group content on keeping the status quo between
Britain and Iraq.
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2) Al-Ikha’(National Brotherhood): This group opposed total British
control of Iraq and wanted more autonomy.
3) Al-Ahli: This group was created by western educated intellectuals
and they favored a socialist solution to Iraq’s problems. All three
of these groups knew that they needed the help of the military to
come into power. The Ahli group were most successful in
recruiting the military to their side. They convinced Bakr Sidqi on
their side and Bakr Sidqi carried the first coup de taut in the world.
Sidqi went to the new king and forced him to create a new
government made up of Ahli members but even though the Ahli
group officially had power in reality power was in the hands of
Bakr Sidqi and the military. Eventually Bakr Sidqi removed the
Ahli from government and established a military dictatorship. In
1937 he was assassinated by a group of his own officers.
C. Leading Up to and During WWII (1938-1943): After Sidqi Nuri Al-Saeed
who is very pro-British becomes the Prime Minister of Iraq. He is also a
general from the military. The international conflict between Britain and
Germany spilled over into Iraq. Within the Iraqi military two factions
developed. One faction was pro-British led by Nuri Al-Saeed and one
faction was anti-British and pro-German led by Rashid Ali Al-Kaylandi.
The Kaylani group wanted to use German growing influence to gain
independence for Iraq. Eventually these two groups clashed and the
Kaylani group ousted Al-Saeed and the king out of Iraq. Britain invaded
the country and immediately crushed the Kaylani group and restored Al-
Saeed as Prime Minister and the king to the throne.
D. Nuri Al-Saeed (1943-1956): During this period Nuri became Iraq and Iraq
became Nuri. He was the strong man of Iraq. He either was the direct
head of the government or controlled every government from the military.
After WWII Britain ended its direct military control of Iraq and they
resumed their previous style of indirect control. During this period three
important political groups emerged:
i. The Communists. Supported by Soviet Union and very strong
in Iraq.
ii. The Baathists.
iii. The Nasserites.
The Baath Party’s full name is the Arab Baath Socialist Party. It was
created by Michelle Aflaq and its leaders come from the middle class. It
is a pan-Arab party created in Syria in 1941. Its doctrine stresses the
following.
i. Arab Unity: Rather than have 22 Arab states have one.
ii. Reducing western colonial influence in the Arab world.
iii. Nationalization (state ownership) of large industries.
iv. Land Reform: Redistributing land from large landowners to
peasants.
v. Creating an extensive social welfare system.
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The party was so successful and was actually able to win elections that the
party was exported from Syria to Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. From 1994
until 1996 the Middle East and Iraq were preoccupied with the Baghdad
Pact. This pact was a British-American idea. Part of the American overall
strategy of containment of the Soviet Union was the American idea was to
create pro-US alliances around the Soviet Union to control its influence.
Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey were included. The pact was signed in
1956 in Baghdad. Nasser as well as the Baath Party opposed the Baghdad
Pact and saw it as a means of extending Western influence in the Arab
world.
E. Last Days of the Monarchy: Regionally Nasser, the Baath, and Arab
nationalism were growing very strong. Domestically in Iraq social and
economic conditions were abysmal. The living standard for the average
Iraqi has not improved since WWI. Two percent of the landowners
controlled 75% of agricultural land. 90% of peasants were landless and
worked as sharecroppers. Peasants were leaving the country and going to
Baghdad and living in shantytowns that ringed the capitol. Infant
mortality rate was 250 for every 1000 born. There was 50/50 chance of
being able to raise a child until the age of ten.
III. Social & Political Change 1958-1968
A. Iraqi Revolution 1958-1963: A revolution is a total change in the
political, economic and social structures of a society. A revolution can be
peaceful or it can be violent. In the case of Iraq it was a violent
revolution. The army with the help of the Communist and Baathist parties
led the revolution. The monarchy was eliminated, the royal family was
executed and Nuir Saeed was caught trying to escape dressed as a woman
and was executed. This revolution was a turning point in Iraqi politics.
i. The new political structure was based on the Revolutionary
Command Council. The leader of the council was Abdul Karim
Kassem. His deputy was Abdul Salam `Arif.
ii. Economy: Limited land reform was undertaken. Land was taken
away from the landlord and given to the peasants. The state began
nationalization of banks, insurance companies, steel, cement,
tobacco and food companies. Finally the foreign policy of Iraq
was reoriented from a pro-West policy to a pro-Nasser / pro-Soviet
policy. Kassem was neither a Baathist nor a Communist. He was
a general in the army who was able to play the Baath and the
Communists against each other. His biggest mistake came in 1961
when Kuwait was granted independence from Britain. Iraq
rejected Kuwati independence and invaded Kuwait. Britain along
with other Arab countries move in, defend Kuwait and evict the
Iraqi army. After this defeat Kassem’s status sinks and he was
executed by members of a clique led by his deputy.
iii. Transitional period 1963-1968: Arif was a transitional figure. He
came to power due to the support of Baathist army officers. Once
5
in power he removed all Baathist officers from the armed services.
He met his fate in 1964 in a helicopter crash. His brother Abdul
Rahman Arif took over the RCC. The biggest achievement of the
Arif brothers was the grant autonomy to the Kurds and give them
representation in government. 1967 was a major turning point in
the Arab region. It totally discredited Nasser and any other
government that was in power at the time. Iraq was not directly
involved in fighting Israel with ground forces but the Iraqi air force
was devastated by Israel. In July of 1968 Baathists army officers
carry a coup de taut that brings the Baath Party to power by itself
and keeps it in power until today.
IV. Baathist / Takriti Rule 1968 – Present
The leader of the coup was General Ahmad Hassan Al-Bakr. His second in
command was Saddam Hussein. Both of them were from Takrit and that marks
the beginning of the transition of the Baath Party into a nucleus for Takriti rule.
From 1968 until 1979 Al-Bakr was the leader of the Revolutionary Command
Council. However, during that time Saddam Hussien was slowly building his
power race and establishing connections within the armed forces and Baath Party.
Eventually Hussein was able to peacefully remove Al-Bakr from power and
become leader in 1979. The Saddam regime is what we call an authoritarian-
technocratic modernizing political system. That regime nationalized the oil
company. This regime acquired the wealth generating means of production and
started using it to improve the standard of living for the country as a whole.
However, politics remained extremely authoritarian. Politically the Saddam
regime was able to consolidate its power by using the Baath Party to infiltrate the
bureaucracy and other structures of government in order to assure loyalty of those
structures to Saddam Hussein. (For example, every school had a Baath Party cell.)
Moreover, the Saddam regime started privatizing some of the means of
production in order to create a loyal economic elite.
A. Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988: September 22, 1980 almost a year and a half
after the start of the Iranian Revolution Iraqi military forces invade Iran.
i. Territory: It all starts with the territory. When Britain and France
created the boundaries they did not give Iraq a lot of access to the
waterways. Iraq has consistently sought to enlarge its access to the
Persian Gulf and that was an opportunity to grab the Shatt Al Arab
waterway and expand access to the Persian Gulf. Moreover, this
area here had a significant number of Arab speaking people that
Iraq believed should belong under Iraqi sovereignty and control.
ii. The Shiite Revolution: Iraq had approximately 65% of population
Shiites. The Iraqi regime was afraid that the Shiite revolution in
Iran would spill over to Iraq and therefore Saddam decided to
strike first and cripple the revolution. The gulf states, especially
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia were supportive of the Iraqi invasion of
Iran. They were afraid of a radical Islamic Revolution on their
soil. Egypt and Jordan also supported Iraq while Syria and Libya
6
were the only countries imposing the Iraqi invasion.
Internationally Europe and the US did not mind the Iraqi invasion.
iii. Conduct of the War: Initially the Iraqi army was very successful in
taking over major chunks of land in Southern Iraq. However, after
the initial disorganized behavior of the Iranian military they were
able to push back the Iraqi forces to the internationally recognized
border of June 1982. Feeling defeat Iraq tried to make peace and
they launched their own attack into Iraq moving towards the
Bassar region. At that point the west was alarmed and they started
to pour money and arms into Iraq. The US gave Iraq intelligence
collected from A-wax airplanes on the movements of the Iranian
army. France sold Mirage airplanes and exosat missiles. Germany
sold Iraq mustard gas. With western support the Iraqi Army was
able to push back the Iranian forces to the internationally
recognized border. In 19988 Iran accepts the UN resolution
ending the war. Iraq made a big mistake. You never attack a
country undergoing a revolution; they could mobilize a country
against a foreign enemy.
B. Gulf War (1990): On June 2nd
1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait sparking the
Gulf Crisis from June to January 18th
1991 and from January 18th
1991
until February 1991 the Gulf War. (Gulf War: One month, 100 hours)
i. Why Invade
a. Misperceptions: The Iraqi leadership committed a number
of misperceptions of reality and that led them to invade
Kuwait. First misperception, during an April 1990 meeting
April Gillespie, the US Ambassador to Iraq, told Saddam
Hussein the following, “We have no opinion on Arab-Arab
conflicts like your disagreement with Kuwait.” Saddam
Hussein read this statement as an invitation to deal with
Kuwait’s intransigence towards Iraq. Second
misperception, the Iraqi leadership believed that if Iraq
invaded Kuwait Saudi Arabia being a theocracy would not
allow foreign troops on its soil because that will violate
Islamic teachings. Third misperception, there is a common
mistake that decision makers make in foreign policy, this is
known as a “false analogy.” The Iraqi leadership believed
that the US is risk-averse. If the Iraqi forces inflict
casualties on US forces the US will withdraw. Another
mistake, the Iraqi leadership believed that should a war
erupt between Iraq and the US, Iraq will throw missiles at
Israel into retaliation and in turn that will disrupt the Arab-
US coalition that was driving Iraq out of Kuwait.
b. US – USSR Relations: During the Cold War it was
common practice for the US to take one side of a conflict
and the USSR the opposing side. During the Gulf War this
7
did not happen, because the USSR was falling apart and
were dependent on loans from the West.
c. Iraq-Saudi Arabia-Kuwait Relation: During the Iran-Iraq
War Saudi Arabia gave Iraq 80 billion dollars in loans.
They believe that Iraq’s fight with Iran was helping protect
them from Shiite radicalism. After the war ended Kuwait
started pressuring Iraq to repay its 40 billion dollars in
loans. This upset the Iraqi leadership because they believed
the loans would be forgiven. Another source of tension,
Kuwait and Iraq share a common oilfield known as
Rumaila. 90% of the field is in Iraq and 10% is in Kuwait.
According to Iraq Kuwait was slant drilling into the Iraq
portion of the oilfield and that cost Iraq 10 billion dollars in
revenue according to Iraq in 1980 – 1990. Production of
oil in OPEC is based on quotas. According to Iraq, Kuwait
and the United Arab Emirates were exceeding their quota
and driving the oil prices downwards. Iraq was interested
in higher prices because it just came out of an eight-year
war with Iran. Finally, the issue of access to the Persian
Gulf. Iraq is a country of 170,000 square miles. However
it’s coastline is only 15 miles when the British drew the
border between Iraq and Kuwait they gave the bulk of the
water to Kuwait. After the Iran-Iraq War Iraq’s access to
the water was even narrower because the Shatt Al-Arab
waterway was heavily mined. At the mouth of the Gulf
there are two islands known as Warba and Bubdyan. Iran
asked Kuwait to leave these islands to Iraq after the Iran-
Iraq War, Kuwait refused.
ii. Why did the US marshal its forces in response to Iraq’s invasion?
The US contributed half a million trips, Britain 35,000, France
17,000, Egypt 30,000, and Syria 19,000. The entire war effort was
paid for by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
a. Feminists: George Bush had a wimp image. He had an
image of a man born with a silver spoon in his mouth.
According to sources, Margaret Thatcher played a pivotal
role in getting George Bush some backbone. She said, “Do
not go wobbly on us George.”
b. Dependence on oil: The US economy is oil dependent.
Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait gave it a control over the
pricing of oil larger than it already has. The US leadership
feared that this control of oil would lead to price hikes and
that would cause a recession in the US economy.
c. Election around the corner: There was approximately a
year and a half separating the Gulf Crisis from the
November 1992 election. George Bush Sr. had no
domestic agenda. A successful war would boost his
8
approval ratings and help him win the November 1992
election.
d. Budget of the Pentagon: At the end of the Cold War the
forecast was for drastic cuts in the Pentagon budget. If it
could be shown that the world is a dangerous place even
after the end of communism then the military procurement
budgets would not be slashed heavily. As a matter of fact,
right after the Gulf War ended US military sales to the
Middle East jumped from 12.7 billion dollars from 1987-
1990 to 21.7 billion dollars from 1991-1994.
e. Sabah ruling family: The Kuwati Sabah ruling family had
billions and billions of dollars in Western and US banks
from the oil sales they have accumulated over the years.
As a matter of fact, the Sabah ruling family made more
money from their assets overseas than from the sale of oil
before the invasion of Iraq. If the Sabah ruling family were
not reinstated in Kuwait they might draw on their financial
assets and that might destabilize the Western financial
system.
f. Restore the balance of power: At the end of the Iran-Iraq
War Iraq emerged as the second strongest country in the
region after Israel. For the US the Middle East is a vital
foreign policy area and the US needed to downsize the
power of the Iraqi military because it has served its
purpose. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait gave the US restoration
of the balance of power in the region.
V. Gulf War and Aftermath
The Gulf War was a “good” war.
i. There were little casualties on the US side.
ii. It achieved its object to liberate Kuwait, maintain US base in Gulf, and
downsize the Iraqi military.
iii. It was short, it lasted for one month.
The first part of the war was an air campaign. During the air war 88,000 tons of
explosives were dropped on Iraq. Only 6% of them were smart bombs. Recent
US government documents reveal that the air bombing campaign specifically
targeted infrastructural facilities that were not from the military. After the air war
came the ground war. The ground war lasted for 100 hours. The Iraqi army was
routed and some of the troops were allowed by the US military to go back to Iraq
proper even though they had them trapped. There is not an exact number for the
Iraqi casualties. The Defense Department estimates 60,000 killed, others estimate
between 120,000 through 300,000 killed. The war officially ended in February of
1991. However, unofficially the US and British aircrafts have continued to bomb
Iraq on an almost daily basis.
A. Sanctions After the “War”: After the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after
the war officially ended Iraq was placed under a very stringent sanctions
regime by the UN. There were numerous UN resolutions that were passed
9
by the UN Security Council. The most important was UN Resolution 687.
This requires three things from Iraq.
1) Destroy weapons of mass destruction. Weapons of mass
destruction include chemical weapons (very cheap and very
easy to produce), biological weapons (harder to produce than
chemical weapons and a bit more expensive), finally nuclear
weapons (most expensive, hardest, longest to produce).
2) Destroy the short-range ballistic missiles (1,000 miles or less,
medium 1000-5000, long-range intercontinental missiles)
known as SCUDs.
3) Refrain from the future development of such weapons.
The second resolution, Resolution 715, creates an agency known as
UNSCOM. The purpose of UNSCOM is to implement Resolution 687.
Then there is Resolution 661. This resolution authorized a very tight
embargo on anything that is imported or exported from Iraq. Iraq was not
allowed to export oil and not allowed to import anything with a dual
purpose. Four years later Resolution 986 was passed. It is commonly
known as the Oil for Food Program. Under the resolution Iraq is allowed
to sell 2.14 billion barrels of oil every six months. Part of the money from
the sale goes to war reparations and part of the money goes to UN
expenses, finally part of the money goes to buy food and medicine that
might be pre-approved by the UN Sanction Committee.
B. Official Purpose of Sanctions: In August of 2001 the sanctions on Iraq
marked their 11th
anniversary. What has been achieved so far:
 UNSCOM officials testified before congress on April 27th
1998 that they have been able to destroy 38,000 chemical
munitions, 480,000 liters of chemical warfare agents, 48
ballistic missiles, 6 missile launchers, 30 chemical and
biological weapon missile warheads.
Even though UNSCOM was very successful the UN Security Council has
been unable to lift sanctions due to US and British support. Since the
sanctions have continued Iraq started resisting sanctions and not
cooperating. They claimed the US was using UNSCOM to spy on Iraq.
Eventually in December of 1998 Iraq kicked out UNSCOM. The US and
Britain retaliate with a massive four day offensive at the height of the
Monica Lewinsky scandal. Eventually in January 6, 1999 the Boston
Globe publishes an article saying the US was spying on Iraq.
C. Continuation of the Sanctions.
i. The Capacity Argument: The US and Great Britain have
continuously maintained that Iraq still has the capacity to
produce weapons of mass destruction. Any country in the
world has the capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction
and therefore to eliminate capacity you must physically
eliminate all scientists in Iraq and chemistry sets.
ii. Getting Rid of Saddam: Analysts have argued that the US and
Great Britain’s actual aim behind the sanctions is to get rid of
10
the Saddam Hussein regime. The policy was to literally starve
the Iraqi leadership, produce divisions within the military, and
create a coup de taut against Saddam. Former US Secretary of
State Madeline Albright has said, “We do not agree that if Iraq
complies with its obligations concerning weapons of mass
destruction sanctions should be lifted.” This policy has clearly
to date has not worked. The only people who are starving are
the ordinary Iraqis.
iii. Sanctions are Profitable: According to this argument sanctions
are profitable not only for the US but also for the Gulf States.
Before the Gulf War Saudi Arabia exported less than 5 million
barrels of oil per day. Since the sanctions Iraqi oil has been
either banned or limited in the marketplace. From 1992 until
1998 Saudi Arabia has made more than two hundred billion
dollars extra in order to make up the lack or limited oil
production in Iraq. This additional money has helped increase
the purchasing of armaments from the United States. The
United States is the largest weapons exporter in the world. It
controls 50% of the world’s arms trade. From 1992 to 1999
the US delivered more than 50 billion dollars worth of arms to
the Middle East.
D. Who is Responsible?
Who is responsible for the death of the Iraqi people? The US and Britain have
presented two arguments that lay the blame squarely on the President of Iraq
Saddam Hussein.
i. Iraq is not complying with the UN resolutions regarding weapons
of mass destruction. Once Iraq complies the sanctions will be
lifted.
ii. British and American officials argue that under the Oil for Food
program there is enough food and medicine coming into the
country to prevent what is happening to the Iraqi people.
However, Saddam Hussein is hoarding that food and medicine to
the people closest to him. Denis Halliday is or was the man in
charge of operating the Oil for Food program in Iraq. In 1998 he
resigned and hw as interviewed about the assertion just mentioned.
Hans Von Sponek replaced Denis Halliday and administered the
program for 2 years. He resigned in two years.
11

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Middle east political science notes for test 2

  • 1. Middle East Political Science Notes 3-20-02 I. Authoritarian Politics: Authoritarian elite politics is totally different from democratically elite politics in the United States. A. The nature of the state i. A state is a geographically bounded entity. ii. A state has a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. iii. A state can borrow and tax in your name. iv. The state is sovereign. It has sovereignty. Sovereignty means that the state controls what happens within its boundaries. 1) Third World State: Third world states have their origins in colonialism. When Britain, France, Spain, and Germany took over third world regions they created boundaries to differentiate each other’s control of those boundaries. The second step is to create state institutions such as armies, police force, government, etc., designed to subdue local resistance to colonialism. The subjugation of the locals was either done directly by the forces of the colonial power or indirectly by co-opting local elites to do the subjugation of the masses on behalf of the colonial power. When the colonial powers began to weaken these colonies gained political independence. The state because a prize that local elites competed to control. Why did that become a prize? i. It was the only institution that had enough control and power to subdue the masses and eliminate other elites. ii. It had a significant economic control of resources that enabled the elite to insure their continuity if they controlled that state. iii. Third world elites often use the state for economic development in order to pacify the population. For example, in most third world states health care is free and so is education. Food necessities are subsidized by the state. The state does that because it is authoritarian and therefore the contract between the state and the people is “We will provide you with these essential services in exchange you will shut the fuck up about democracy.” B. Weak Authoritarian States: Contrary to popular belief authoritarian states are weak. They are not as strong or as resilient as they appear to be. i. In the Middle East the state system only dates back to 1920 when states were founded by colonial powers. Because of the short history of the state people’s loyalty is for their religious background, tribe, ethnic group, village or region. ii. The strength of a state is directly proportional to its ability to tax its people. In the Middle East the state is incapable to extract 1
  • 2. taxes from the population. In fact, the Middle East has one of the lowest tax rates among the world’s regions. 1) From extractive industries and controlling the import / export trade. 2) By taxing the employees who work for the government or state. If you are in the private sector more than likely you will go untaxed in the Middle East. C. Outright Elite Rule: In the US elite rule is masked or covered up by a democratic process. In the Middle East elite rule is direct without the pretense of democracy. Elite rule is often brutal and participating in politics is reserved to the elites and most of the time politics is dangerous to your health. If elites in their competition disagree one of them either loses their life or is forced to leave the country. D. Military Power: All power resides in the hands of the military. Almost all civilian governments in the Middle East are dependent on the loyalty of the military to stay in power. E. Masses get involved: The masses get involved in politics during revolutionary times. During the Iranian Revolution and the Revolution in Iraq 1958. F. Political Authoritarianism: Most Middle Eastern authoritarianism is political only. While the state does own and control the large means of production the people are allowed private ownership of the small means of production. The authoritarianism is different than totalitarianism. In the Middle East a lot of the states allow their citizens a significant “free” personal realm especially in the areas of religion, marriage, and of everyday interaction being this is not political. G. Impact of Regional Events: Since the Middle Eastern state is weak it cannot limit the impact of international and regional events on its territory. I. Diverse Society Iraq is bordered by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to the south, Iran to the east, Jordan and Syria to the west and Turkey to the north. Before 1920 there was no such thing as Iraq. Iraq was put together as a state by the British and the French and it was made a British colony. The most important division within the population of Iraq is between the Sunni and Shiites in Iraq. 60-65% are Shiites centered in Southern Iraq, 30-32% of the population are Sunni Muslims centered in central Iraq. Historically the governing elites of Iraq came from the Sunni population in central Iraq. The second division is ethnic division. 75-80% of the population are Arabs. 15% to 20% of population are Kurds who are Sunni Muslims but ethnically they have their own language and customs. They are centered in Northern Iraq. Moreover, there are Christian minorities in Iraq known as the Assyrians. They form approximately 3-4% of the population. There used to be a 150,000 Jewish population in Iraq. However, after the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 they were either forced out or left on their own. 2
  • 3. II. Political System 1920-1958 A. Monarchy: Iraq became a British colony. British colonial style is always through indirect governance and indirect control. What Britain does is to usually co-opt or recruit local elites that will do British bidding. Britain will allow those local elites autonomy and they will give them control of the day-to-day events of the colony as long as they do not challenge British total control. i. The first thing that the British needed to do was give the new state they created legitimacy. They bring King Faysal who was deposed from Damascus and they make him king of Iraq. Faysal overthrew the Ottomans and became a symbol of Arab nationalism. Faysal is a Hashimite and a descendant of the prophet. ii. Create a social base and economic class that will support the new monarchy. The British took the heads of the tribes and made them the landowners. In this way they gained their loyalty. And the rank members of the tribe became sharecroppers. Sharecropping is when the peasant works the land that he does not own. He gives a share of the produce to the landowner and keeps the rest to themselves. iii. The British created a legislature and made the landowners representatives of the people in the legislature. iv. The British signed treaties with the new Iraqi entity giving it local autonomy and creating a long-term alliance between Britain and Iraq. After signing the treaties with the new Iraqi entity that Britain created the Iraqi state began extending its influence over the entire Iraqi territory. However, there was significant resistance to the new state and its influence. The first to rebel against the Iraqi state were the Kurds. They rebelled in 1922, 1924, 1930, 1931 and 1932. The Kurds rebel but with the blessing of Britain the Iraqi army was allowed to crush the resistance. The second group to rebel against central authority were the Christian Assyrians and the Iraqi army sent a punitive force led by Bakr Sidqi who crushed the rebellion and his status within the Iraqi armed forces grew. The final rebellion came from the Shiites in the South and that rebellion was also put down by force. King Faysal dies in 1933 from natural causes. After his death the legitimacy of the Iraqi monarchy deteriorates. His son Ghazi becomes king but his son is fond of car racing and he dies in a car accident. The son of Ghazi is too young to become king so his brother Abdul Illah becomes king. B. New Political Groups 1930-1940: With the deterioration of the legitimacy of the monarchy power devolved from the monarchy to new political groups that were rising in the country and eventually real power devolved to the military. Three important groups: 1) Al-`Ahd: This group was led by General Nuri Al-Saeed. It was a pro-British group content on keeping the status quo between Britain and Iraq. 3
  • 4. 2) Al-Ikha’(National Brotherhood): This group opposed total British control of Iraq and wanted more autonomy. 3) Al-Ahli: This group was created by western educated intellectuals and they favored a socialist solution to Iraq’s problems. All three of these groups knew that they needed the help of the military to come into power. The Ahli group were most successful in recruiting the military to their side. They convinced Bakr Sidqi on their side and Bakr Sidqi carried the first coup de taut in the world. Sidqi went to the new king and forced him to create a new government made up of Ahli members but even though the Ahli group officially had power in reality power was in the hands of Bakr Sidqi and the military. Eventually Bakr Sidqi removed the Ahli from government and established a military dictatorship. In 1937 he was assassinated by a group of his own officers. C. Leading Up to and During WWII (1938-1943): After Sidqi Nuri Al-Saeed who is very pro-British becomes the Prime Minister of Iraq. He is also a general from the military. The international conflict between Britain and Germany spilled over into Iraq. Within the Iraqi military two factions developed. One faction was pro-British led by Nuri Al-Saeed and one faction was anti-British and pro-German led by Rashid Ali Al-Kaylandi. The Kaylani group wanted to use German growing influence to gain independence for Iraq. Eventually these two groups clashed and the Kaylani group ousted Al-Saeed and the king out of Iraq. Britain invaded the country and immediately crushed the Kaylani group and restored Al- Saeed as Prime Minister and the king to the throne. D. Nuri Al-Saeed (1943-1956): During this period Nuri became Iraq and Iraq became Nuri. He was the strong man of Iraq. He either was the direct head of the government or controlled every government from the military. After WWII Britain ended its direct military control of Iraq and they resumed their previous style of indirect control. During this period three important political groups emerged: i. The Communists. Supported by Soviet Union and very strong in Iraq. ii. The Baathists. iii. The Nasserites. The Baath Party’s full name is the Arab Baath Socialist Party. It was created by Michelle Aflaq and its leaders come from the middle class. It is a pan-Arab party created in Syria in 1941. Its doctrine stresses the following. i. Arab Unity: Rather than have 22 Arab states have one. ii. Reducing western colonial influence in the Arab world. iii. Nationalization (state ownership) of large industries. iv. Land Reform: Redistributing land from large landowners to peasants. v. Creating an extensive social welfare system. 4
  • 5. The party was so successful and was actually able to win elections that the party was exported from Syria to Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. From 1994 until 1996 the Middle East and Iraq were preoccupied with the Baghdad Pact. This pact was a British-American idea. Part of the American overall strategy of containment of the Soviet Union was the American idea was to create pro-US alliances around the Soviet Union to control its influence. Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey were included. The pact was signed in 1956 in Baghdad. Nasser as well as the Baath Party opposed the Baghdad Pact and saw it as a means of extending Western influence in the Arab world. E. Last Days of the Monarchy: Regionally Nasser, the Baath, and Arab nationalism were growing very strong. Domestically in Iraq social and economic conditions were abysmal. The living standard for the average Iraqi has not improved since WWI. Two percent of the landowners controlled 75% of agricultural land. 90% of peasants were landless and worked as sharecroppers. Peasants were leaving the country and going to Baghdad and living in shantytowns that ringed the capitol. Infant mortality rate was 250 for every 1000 born. There was 50/50 chance of being able to raise a child until the age of ten. III. Social & Political Change 1958-1968 A. Iraqi Revolution 1958-1963: A revolution is a total change in the political, economic and social structures of a society. A revolution can be peaceful or it can be violent. In the case of Iraq it was a violent revolution. The army with the help of the Communist and Baathist parties led the revolution. The monarchy was eliminated, the royal family was executed and Nuir Saeed was caught trying to escape dressed as a woman and was executed. This revolution was a turning point in Iraqi politics. i. The new political structure was based on the Revolutionary Command Council. The leader of the council was Abdul Karim Kassem. His deputy was Abdul Salam `Arif. ii. Economy: Limited land reform was undertaken. Land was taken away from the landlord and given to the peasants. The state began nationalization of banks, insurance companies, steel, cement, tobacco and food companies. Finally the foreign policy of Iraq was reoriented from a pro-West policy to a pro-Nasser / pro-Soviet policy. Kassem was neither a Baathist nor a Communist. He was a general in the army who was able to play the Baath and the Communists against each other. His biggest mistake came in 1961 when Kuwait was granted independence from Britain. Iraq rejected Kuwati independence and invaded Kuwait. Britain along with other Arab countries move in, defend Kuwait and evict the Iraqi army. After this defeat Kassem’s status sinks and he was executed by members of a clique led by his deputy. iii. Transitional period 1963-1968: Arif was a transitional figure. He came to power due to the support of Baathist army officers. Once 5
  • 6. in power he removed all Baathist officers from the armed services. He met his fate in 1964 in a helicopter crash. His brother Abdul Rahman Arif took over the RCC. The biggest achievement of the Arif brothers was the grant autonomy to the Kurds and give them representation in government. 1967 was a major turning point in the Arab region. It totally discredited Nasser and any other government that was in power at the time. Iraq was not directly involved in fighting Israel with ground forces but the Iraqi air force was devastated by Israel. In July of 1968 Baathists army officers carry a coup de taut that brings the Baath Party to power by itself and keeps it in power until today. IV. Baathist / Takriti Rule 1968 – Present The leader of the coup was General Ahmad Hassan Al-Bakr. His second in command was Saddam Hussein. Both of them were from Takrit and that marks the beginning of the transition of the Baath Party into a nucleus for Takriti rule. From 1968 until 1979 Al-Bakr was the leader of the Revolutionary Command Council. However, during that time Saddam Hussien was slowly building his power race and establishing connections within the armed forces and Baath Party. Eventually Hussein was able to peacefully remove Al-Bakr from power and become leader in 1979. The Saddam regime is what we call an authoritarian- technocratic modernizing political system. That regime nationalized the oil company. This regime acquired the wealth generating means of production and started using it to improve the standard of living for the country as a whole. However, politics remained extremely authoritarian. Politically the Saddam regime was able to consolidate its power by using the Baath Party to infiltrate the bureaucracy and other structures of government in order to assure loyalty of those structures to Saddam Hussein. (For example, every school had a Baath Party cell.) Moreover, the Saddam regime started privatizing some of the means of production in order to create a loyal economic elite. A. Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988: September 22, 1980 almost a year and a half after the start of the Iranian Revolution Iraqi military forces invade Iran. i. Territory: It all starts with the territory. When Britain and France created the boundaries they did not give Iraq a lot of access to the waterways. Iraq has consistently sought to enlarge its access to the Persian Gulf and that was an opportunity to grab the Shatt Al Arab waterway and expand access to the Persian Gulf. Moreover, this area here had a significant number of Arab speaking people that Iraq believed should belong under Iraqi sovereignty and control. ii. The Shiite Revolution: Iraq had approximately 65% of population Shiites. The Iraqi regime was afraid that the Shiite revolution in Iran would spill over to Iraq and therefore Saddam decided to strike first and cripple the revolution. The gulf states, especially Kuwait and Saudi Arabia were supportive of the Iraqi invasion of Iran. They were afraid of a radical Islamic Revolution on their soil. Egypt and Jordan also supported Iraq while Syria and Libya 6
  • 7. were the only countries imposing the Iraqi invasion. Internationally Europe and the US did not mind the Iraqi invasion. iii. Conduct of the War: Initially the Iraqi army was very successful in taking over major chunks of land in Southern Iraq. However, after the initial disorganized behavior of the Iranian military they were able to push back the Iraqi forces to the internationally recognized border of June 1982. Feeling defeat Iraq tried to make peace and they launched their own attack into Iraq moving towards the Bassar region. At that point the west was alarmed and they started to pour money and arms into Iraq. The US gave Iraq intelligence collected from A-wax airplanes on the movements of the Iranian army. France sold Mirage airplanes and exosat missiles. Germany sold Iraq mustard gas. With western support the Iraqi Army was able to push back the Iranian forces to the internationally recognized border. In 19988 Iran accepts the UN resolution ending the war. Iraq made a big mistake. You never attack a country undergoing a revolution; they could mobilize a country against a foreign enemy. B. Gulf War (1990): On June 2nd 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait sparking the Gulf Crisis from June to January 18th 1991 and from January 18th 1991 until February 1991 the Gulf War. (Gulf War: One month, 100 hours) i. Why Invade a. Misperceptions: The Iraqi leadership committed a number of misperceptions of reality and that led them to invade Kuwait. First misperception, during an April 1990 meeting April Gillespie, the US Ambassador to Iraq, told Saddam Hussein the following, “We have no opinion on Arab-Arab conflicts like your disagreement with Kuwait.” Saddam Hussein read this statement as an invitation to deal with Kuwait’s intransigence towards Iraq. Second misperception, the Iraqi leadership believed that if Iraq invaded Kuwait Saudi Arabia being a theocracy would not allow foreign troops on its soil because that will violate Islamic teachings. Third misperception, there is a common mistake that decision makers make in foreign policy, this is known as a “false analogy.” The Iraqi leadership believed that the US is risk-averse. If the Iraqi forces inflict casualties on US forces the US will withdraw. Another mistake, the Iraqi leadership believed that should a war erupt between Iraq and the US, Iraq will throw missiles at Israel into retaliation and in turn that will disrupt the Arab- US coalition that was driving Iraq out of Kuwait. b. US – USSR Relations: During the Cold War it was common practice for the US to take one side of a conflict and the USSR the opposing side. During the Gulf War this 7
  • 8. did not happen, because the USSR was falling apart and were dependent on loans from the West. c. Iraq-Saudi Arabia-Kuwait Relation: During the Iran-Iraq War Saudi Arabia gave Iraq 80 billion dollars in loans. They believe that Iraq’s fight with Iran was helping protect them from Shiite radicalism. After the war ended Kuwait started pressuring Iraq to repay its 40 billion dollars in loans. This upset the Iraqi leadership because they believed the loans would be forgiven. Another source of tension, Kuwait and Iraq share a common oilfield known as Rumaila. 90% of the field is in Iraq and 10% is in Kuwait. According to Iraq Kuwait was slant drilling into the Iraq portion of the oilfield and that cost Iraq 10 billion dollars in revenue according to Iraq in 1980 – 1990. Production of oil in OPEC is based on quotas. According to Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were exceeding their quota and driving the oil prices downwards. Iraq was interested in higher prices because it just came out of an eight-year war with Iran. Finally, the issue of access to the Persian Gulf. Iraq is a country of 170,000 square miles. However it’s coastline is only 15 miles when the British drew the border between Iraq and Kuwait they gave the bulk of the water to Kuwait. After the Iran-Iraq War Iraq’s access to the water was even narrower because the Shatt Al-Arab waterway was heavily mined. At the mouth of the Gulf there are two islands known as Warba and Bubdyan. Iran asked Kuwait to leave these islands to Iraq after the Iran- Iraq War, Kuwait refused. ii. Why did the US marshal its forces in response to Iraq’s invasion? The US contributed half a million trips, Britain 35,000, France 17,000, Egypt 30,000, and Syria 19,000. The entire war effort was paid for by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. a. Feminists: George Bush had a wimp image. He had an image of a man born with a silver spoon in his mouth. According to sources, Margaret Thatcher played a pivotal role in getting George Bush some backbone. She said, “Do not go wobbly on us George.” b. Dependence on oil: The US economy is oil dependent. Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait gave it a control over the pricing of oil larger than it already has. The US leadership feared that this control of oil would lead to price hikes and that would cause a recession in the US economy. c. Election around the corner: There was approximately a year and a half separating the Gulf Crisis from the November 1992 election. George Bush Sr. had no domestic agenda. A successful war would boost his 8
  • 9. approval ratings and help him win the November 1992 election. d. Budget of the Pentagon: At the end of the Cold War the forecast was for drastic cuts in the Pentagon budget. If it could be shown that the world is a dangerous place even after the end of communism then the military procurement budgets would not be slashed heavily. As a matter of fact, right after the Gulf War ended US military sales to the Middle East jumped from 12.7 billion dollars from 1987- 1990 to 21.7 billion dollars from 1991-1994. e. Sabah ruling family: The Kuwati Sabah ruling family had billions and billions of dollars in Western and US banks from the oil sales they have accumulated over the years. As a matter of fact, the Sabah ruling family made more money from their assets overseas than from the sale of oil before the invasion of Iraq. If the Sabah ruling family were not reinstated in Kuwait they might draw on their financial assets and that might destabilize the Western financial system. f. Restore the balance of power: At the end of the Iran-Iraq War Iraq emerged as the second strongest country in the region after Israel. For the US the Middle East is a vital foreign policy area and the US needed to downsize the power of the Iraqi military because it has served its purpose. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait gave the US restoration of the balance of power in the region. V. Gulf War and Aftermath The Gulf War was a “good” war. i. There were little casualties on the US side. ii. It achieved its object to liberate Kuwait, maintain US base in Gulf, and downsize the Iraqi military. iii. It was short, it lasted for one month. The first part of the war was an air campaign. During the air war 88,000 tons of explosives were dropped on Iraq. Only 6% of them were smart bombs. Recent US government documents reveal that the air bombing campaign specifically targeted infrastructural facilities that were not from the military. After the air war came the ground war. The ground war lasted for 100 hours. The Iraqi army was routed and some of the troops were allowed by the US military to go back to Iraq proper even though they had them trapped. There is not an exact number for the Iraqi casualties. The Defense Department estimates 60,000 killed, others estimate between 120,000 through 300,000 killed. The war officially ended in February of 1991. However, unofficially the US and British aircrafts have continued to bomb Iraq on an almost daily basis. A. Sanctions After the “War”: After the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the war officially ended Iraq was placed under a very stringent sanctions regime by the UN. There were numerous UN resolutions that were passed 9
  • 10. by the UN Security Council. The most important was UN Resolution 687. This requires three things from Iraq. 1) Destroy weapons of mass destruction. Weapons of mass destruction include chemical weapons (very cheap and very easy to produce), biological weapons (harder to produce than chemical weapons and a bit more expensive), finally nuclear weapons (most expensive, hardest, longest to produce). 2) Destroy the short-range ballistic missiles (1,000 miles or less, medium 1000-5000, long-range intercontinental missiles) known as SCUDs. 3) Refrain from the future development of such weapons. The second resolution, Resolution 715, creates an agency known as UNSCOM. The purpose of UNSCOM is to implement Resolution 687. Then there is Resolution 661. This resolution authorized a very tight embargo on anything that is imported or exported from Iraq. Iraq was not allowed to export oil and not allowed to import anything with a dual purpose. Four years later Resolution 986 was passed. It is commonly known as the Oil for Food Program. Under the resolution Iraq is allowed to sell 2.14 billion barrels of oil every six months. Part of the money from the sale goes to war reparations and part of the money goes to UN expenses, finally part of the money goes to buy food and medicine that might be pre-approved by the UN Sanction Committee. B. Official Purpose of Sanctions: In August of 2001 the sanctions on Iraq marked their 11th anniversary. What has been achieved so far:  UNSCOM officials testified before congress on April 27th 1998 that they have been able to destroy 38,000 chemical munitions, 480,000 liters of chemical warfare agents, 48 ballistic missiles, 6 missile launchers, 30 chemical and biological weapon missile warheads. Even though UNSCOM was very successful the UN Security Council has been unable to lift sanctions due to US and British support. Since the sanctions have continued Iraq started resisting sanctions and not cooperating. They claimed the US was using UNSCOM to spy on Iraq. Eventually in December of 1998 Iraq kicked out UNSCOM. The US and Britain retaliate with a massive four day offensive at the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Eventually in January 6, 1999 the Boston Globe publishes an article saying the US was spying on Iraq. C. Continuation of the Sanctions. i. The Capacity Argument: The US and Great Britain have continuously maintained that Iraq still has the capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction. Any country in the world has the capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction and therefore to eliminate capacity you must physically eliminate all scientists in Iraq and chemistry sets. ii. Getting Rid of Saddam: Analysts have argued that the US and Great Britain’s actual aim behind the sanctions is to get rid of 10
  • 11. the Saddam Hussein regime. The policy was to literally starve the Iraqi leadership, produce divisions within the military, and create a coup de taut against Saddam. Former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright has said, “We do not agree that if Iraq complies with its obligations concerning weapons of mass destruction sanctions should be lifted.” This policy has clearly to date has not worked. The only people who are starving are the ordinary Iraqis. iii. Sanctions are Profitable: According to this argument sanctions are profitable not only for the US but also for the Gulf States. Before the Gulf War Saudi Arabia exported less than 5 million barrels of oil per day. Since the sanctions Iraqi oil has been either banned or limited in the marketplace. From 1992 until 1998 Saudi Arabia has made more than two hundred billion dollars extra in order to make up the lack or limited oil production in Iraq. This additional money has helped increase the purchasing of armaments from the United States. The United States is the largest weapons exporter in the world. It controls 50% of the world’s arms trade. From 1992 to 1999 the US delivered more than 50 billion dollars worth of arms to the Middle East. D. Who is Responsible? Who is responsible for the death of the Iraqi people? The US and Britain have presented two arguments that lay the blame squarely on the President of Iraq Saddam Hussein. i. Iraq is not complying with the UN resolutions regarding weapons of mass destruction. Once Iraq complies the sanctions will be lifted. ii. British and American officials argue that under the Oil for Food program there is enough food and medicine coming into the country to prevent what is happening to the Iraqi people. However, Saddam Hussein is hoarding that food and medicine to the people closest to him. Denis Halliday is or was the man in charge of operating the Oil for Food program in Iraq. In 1998 he resigned and hw as interviewed about the assertion just mentioned. Hans Von Sponek replaced Denis Halliday and administered the program for 2 years. He resigned in two years. 11