Fao modelling system for agricultural impacts of climate change
Hops Final Presentation
1. HOPS FARM SITE
SUITABILITY ANALYSIS
OF THE
NIAGARA REGION
Chris MacDonald, Project Manager
Svitlana Hrytsenko, GIS Analyst
The Beer Stein Shop. (2015). Hops [Image] Retrieved from: http://blog.thebeersteinshop.com/
4. Project Goal
Provide topographic information to local farmers
and craft breweries to determine areas in Niagara
that might be suitable for hops farms
Used to estimate hectares of suitable land and
total harvest potential overall and by municipality
5. What are Hops?
“Spice of Beer”
Hop flowers are used to add flavour to beer
Bittering agent and natural preservative
Grown between the 30th and 55th parallels
Majority imported from Germany and the Pacific
Northwest US
Harvested in the fall
Mike’s Organic Brewery. (2013). Beer and Hops [Image]. Retrieved from http://mikes.simpletix.com/Event/15533/Rhythm-Hops/#.VmNm7vlVhBc
Oran, H. (2011). How to Grow Hops. Retrieved from Canadian Organic Growers http://www.cog.ca/uploads/TCOG%20Articles/How%20to%20Grow%20Hops.PDF
6.
7. Hops in Ontario
Hop production re-emerging due to growth in the
craft beer industry
100+ craft breweries opened in Ontario in last 5
years
2012 marked first hops harvest in Ontario in 80
years
Demand for hops is currently exceeding supply
Brewers imported 500 tonnes of hops last year
At current production rates, this would require 85
additional farms to meet demand
OMAFRA. Hops. (2012, October 17). Retrieved from http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/CropOp/en/herbs/hops/hops.html
CTV Barrie. (2015, August 21). Retrieved from http://barrie.ctvnews.ca/local-farmers-happy-about-hop-crop-harvest-1.2528049
8. Local Niagara Breweries
Ontario Beer Network. (2015). Ontario Brewers Directory. Brewery Logo [Images]. Retrieved from http://www.momandhops.ca/brewery-listing/
“He Was A Wise Man
Who Invented Beer”- Plato
12. Methodology
Create Euclidean Distance around features to be
avoided
Parameters were split into ranges according to
specific suitability
e.g. Depth to bedrock: 0 – 3 m, 3 – 5 m, 5 – 7 m, > 7 m
Each parameter reclassified based on influence
Use two methods: Weighted Overlay and Fuzzy Overlay
Revised methodology to include both methods
Removed roads and highways
Suitability Reclassification
Not Suitable No Data
Low 0
Moderate 1
High 2
13. Weighted Overlay Analysis
Used pairwise method determine influence
Each parameter in pairs and rank in importance
Parameter Weight Assigned
Drainage 18%
Landuse 16%
Depth to Bedrock 15%
Aspect 13%
Hydrological Features 10%
Soil pH Level 10%
Slope 8%
Environmental Areas 4%
Wineries 2%
Golf Courses 2%
Cemeteries 2%
14. Fuzzy Overlay Analysis
Used fuzzy membership to reclassify to a
0 to 1 scale
Each parameter given membership type
based on the distribution of the data
Membership Type Parameter
Gaussian Slope
Depth to Bedrock
Large Wineries
Golf Courses
Cemeteries
Environmental Areas
Waterbodies
Linear Drainage
Landuse
Near Aspect
pH Levels
15. Calculation of Harvest Potential
Key Assumptions:
1 hectare = 2,950 plants
1 plant = 1 kilogram of wet hops
Lower suitability levels result in less flowers per
plant
Suitability Level Yield per Plant Yield per Hectare
Low 0.33 kg/plant 0.97 t/ha
Moderate 0.66 kg/plant 1.95 t/ha
High 1.00 kg/plant 2.95 t/ha
Freshops. (2014). Hop Variety Descriptions. Retrieved from http://www.freshops.com/hops/variety_descriptions
Nosowitz, D. (2015). Modern Farmer. Farming hops during the ultra hoppy beer craze. Retrieved from http://modernfarmer.com/2015/07/farming-hops-during-the-ultra-hoppy-beer-craze/
16. Results
Weighted Overlay Analysis
Total Suitable Land: 13,778 hectares
Potential Yield: 30,808 tonnes
Suitability Level Area (ha) Percentage of Area Potential Yield (t)
Low 0.19 ha 0.0014% 0.185 t
Moderate 9,836.10 ha 71.39% 19,180 t
High 3,941.58 ha 28.61% 11,628 t
Total 13,777.87 ha 100.00% 30,808 t
IGSC. (2016). Results [Image]. Retrieved from http://igscscholarship.org/igsc-results-2015-16/
20. Results
Fuzzy Overlay Analysis
Total Suitable Land: 11,481 hectares
Potential Yield: 14,876 tonnes
Suitability Level Area (ha) Percentage of Area Potential Yield (t)
Low 7,759.10 ha 67.58% 7,526 t
Moderate 3,630.82 ha 31.62% 7,080 t
High 91.49 ha 0.80% 270 t
Total 11,481.41 ha 100.00% 14,876 t
24. Project Budget
Project completed on schedule and under budget
Total of 189 hours to complete (versus 286 proposed hours)
*The budget is for study purposes only; the client is not required to pay the project team
Actual Proposed
Major Tasks $28,160 $41,000
Printing, Processing Costs $100 $350
Contingency Fee (10%) $0 $4,135
HST (13%) $3,673 $5,867
Total Project Cost $31,933 $51,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
Period
Planned Value (PV)
Actual Cost (AC)
25. Project Budget
Overestimated some major tasks
Major Project Task
Estimated
Hours
Actual
Hours
286 189
1.1. Project Proposal 24 24
1.2. Familiarization and Methodologies 30 21
1.3. Data Exploration and Retrieval 14 11
1.4. Data Planning and Preparation 18 5.5
1.5. Geodatabase and Base Map Creation 36 18
1.6. Project Progress 29 29
1.7. Data Analysis 46.5 12
1.8. Creation of Topographic Site Suitability 20 22
1.9. Creation of Final Output Maps 16 17.5
1.10. Final Project Report 40 25
1.11. Ongoing Meetings 12.5 4
26. Challenge Management
Data Acquisition
Difficulty locating the DEM and Depth to Bedrock
Acquired from Minecraft Project
Manual Calculation: Soil pH Levels
Green Country Challenge. (2016). Challenge [Image]. Retrieved from https://greencountrychallenge.homeschooldebate.net/
27. Challenge Management
Data Processing
Cemetery and golf course point data converted into
shapefiles
Digitizing: Golf Course and Cemetery polygons
Mosaic of Niagara Region orthoimagery could not be
completed
28. Conclusions
Maps created to illustrate low, moderate and high
suitability areas in the Niagara Region
Calculated usable hectares and estimated total harvest
potential
Proposed the best locations
Fuzzy tends to be more accurate
Included proximity to craft breweries
Created model for future planning
Weighted Overlay Fuzzy Overlay
Suitable Land 13,778 ha 11,481 ha
Potential Yield 30,808 t 14,876 t
29. Recommendations
Results are a guideline to narrow down suitable
sites and potential crop yield
Need to examine locations for:
Snow cover (ideally 60 days for insulation)
Amount of rainfall/sunlight
Local soil analysis
Land ownership information
Other factors that may influence crop production
31. References
Craig, L. (2015). Clearview Hops [Telephone Conversation]. Collingwood, Ontario.
CTV Barrie. (2015, August 21). Retrieved from: http://barrie.ctvnews.ca/local-farmers-happy-about-hop-crop-harvest-1.2528049
Freshops. (2014). Hop Variety Descriptions. Retrieved from Freshops: http://www.freshops.com/hops/variety_descriptions
Green Country Challenge. (2016). Challenge [Image]. Retrieved from https://greencountrychallenge.homeschooldebate.net/
IGSC. (2016). Results [Image]. Retrieved from http://igscscholarship.org/igsc-results-2015-16/
Mendocino Brewing. (2013). Modern Hop Yard [Image]. Retrieved from: http://mendobrew.com/blog/724_cascade-hops-americas-own/
Mike’s Organic Brewery. (2013). Beer and Hops [Image]. Retrieved from: http://mikes.simpletix.com/Event/15533/Rhythm-Hops/#.VmNm7vlVhBc
Nosowitz, D. (2015). Farming hops during the ultra hoppy beer craze. Retrieved from Modern Farmer: http://modernfarmer.com/2015/07/farming-hops-during-
the-ultra-hoppy-beer-craze/
OMAFRA. Hops. (2012, October 17). Retrieved from: http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/CropOp/en/herbs/hops/hops.html
Ontario Beer Network. (2015). Ontario Brewers Directory. Brewery Logo [Images]. Retrieved from http://www.momandhops.ca/brewery-listing/
Oran, H. (2011). How to Grow Hops. Retrieved from Canadian Organic Growers: http://www.cog.ca/uploads/TCOG%20Articles/How%20to%20Grow%20Hops.PDF
The Beer Stein Shop. (2015). Hops [Image] Retrieved from: http://blog.thebeersteinshop.com/
Thirst for US craft beers boosts demand for British hops. (2014). Hops and beer [Image]. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29456440
Editor's Notes
My name is Chris MacDonald, Project Manager for M&H Geomatics. To my left is Lana Hrytsenko, GIS Analyst.
Today we are we are presenting our thesis project: The “Hops Farm Site Suitability Analysis of the Niagara Region”.
First off, we want to recognize a few people who have helped us along the way. Special thanks to Darren Platakis of Geospatial Niagara for giving us the opportunity to work on this very interesting project. We would also like to recognize Janet Finlay as our advisor on this project thank her for her guidance and support.
Thank everyone else (peers, family and friends) for their support and encouragement
Our agenda today is outlined here, there are 8 topics of discussion we will be discussing:
An overview of the project, it’s goal and objectives
Methodology of what we did
Get right into the Results and findings of what we uncovered
Project management on the final budget and schedule
Outline challenges we have encountered and how we managed those challenges
Our recommendations
Answer questions you may have with regards to the findings or methods
The goal of the project is to execute a topographic site suitability analysis to determine appropriate areas in Niagara region for growing hops
This will be used to estimate hectares of usable land and total harvest potential
As an extra step, a map of Niagara craft breweries will be superimposed on the suitability map to determine if the high suitable areas are within the breweries’ proximity
What exactly are hops?
Give beer the key of taste and smell characteristics that beer is known for.
It acts as a natural preservative.
Hops give beer the foam retention, contributing to that nice lacing effect that implies a good quality beer.
Many varieties of hops grown throughout the world, some are only grown in certain locations, they are introducing new varieties all the time.
Mention samples on brochure – there are aroma, bittering, and dual purpose
Hops used to be a popular crop growing in Ontario but died out ago due to market demand, production moving to Pacific Northwest US and mass production of beer industry.
2012 marked the first time hops were harvested in Ontario since the 1930’s (http://www.tapsmagazine.com/in-this-issue/hop-harvest). There is currently a push see the return of hops as a commercially grown crop in Ontario.
There are over 30 commercial hop growers in Ontario represents 23% of Canada’s commercial hop growing industry. There are about 32 hectares.
The growth of craft beer industry has seen demand for hops greatly exceed supply
Like the Niagara wine industry was 20 years ago, Niagara is on the cusp of becoming a craft beer destination.
To help , a topographic site suitability analysis is necessary.
Canadian hops farm size approx. 105 hectares
32 commercial hop growers currently in Ontario
Ontario total is 32 hectares, a 300% increase since 2009
Niagara College has 1.6 hectares, and there are multiple breweries in Niagara growing hops
Although no statistics could be uncovered on the number hectares of hop farms in Niagara we know from personal research that Niagara College has 1.6 hectares, and there are multiple breweries that grow their own hops such as Oast and Brimstone Breweries.
Challenge for hop producers is that there is no infrastructure to help harvest and process the crop, so getting into the hop growing business is expensive. BUT Potential to be rewarding with the booming craft beer industry.
*Ontario Hop Growers' Association. (2015, August 18). August 2015-Ontario Hop Market Update-total hops imported $10.46 million. Retrieved from: http://www.ontariohopgrowersassociation.ca/august-2015-ontario-hop-market-update-total-hops-imported-10-46-million/
Niagara is fast becoming a craft beer designation. These are most of the craft breweries in the Niagara Region
Several NC Brewing Grads are opening breweries locally and across Ontario
Niagara College, Brimstone and Oast are known to grow their own hops
Niagara region is well known as an agricultural region. It has a unique micro climate – lies between two Great Lakes which moderates the area’s temperature.
We spoke to several hop experts in Canada and US (Laurie Craig from Clearview Hops (a farm that supplied Niagara College with the Hops plants) and Daniel Germroth from Shenandoah Valley in Virginia
They gave us some pointers on the best conditions for growing Hops
Well drained, but frequent watering is needed but the plants cannot be soaked (irrigation)
Dry climate without heavy rainfall
Lots of sunlight is needed for dryness and continuous photosynthesis
Fertile soil full of nutrients (although a lot of nitrogen is also used in the first few months of growing) specific soil types will further be investigated since we received a lot of differing opinions from various sources
Air circulation is needed to keep the plants dry to avoid mildew
The pH of the soil between 6.5 and 7.5, which is close to a neutral acidity
60 days of continuous snow cover for insulation (no freeze-thaw)
Proper spacing between plants for additional air circulation (1 metre between rows and 50 cm between plants)
Each of the parameters shown on individual map prior to developing the analysis.
Weights will be assigned to each data layer depending on its importance to the analysis.
Two methods used Weighted & Fuzzy
Each parameters were weighted based on our research to determine influence by comparing them in pairs to judge which is preferred. The outcome is listed here with the top factors being Drainage, Landuse and Depth to Bedrock. Lowest were areas to avoid.
Mention the different memberships used for each parameter
There were a couple of key assumptions were made to come up with our yield numbers.
To figure out the yield numbers for the region and municipalities, we made some assumptions. Based on research, on average there are approx 3000 hop plant per hectare and 1 plant produces 1 kg of wet hop. We used this calculation for the high suitability and worked out the yield per plant and hectare for all suitability levels
So we determined that the total suitable land… and potential yield… vast majority are moderate, with 28% high suitability We did this for all municipalities as well, which have been included in our report.
Where are those suitable areas? Here is the map we created for the Weighted overlay. We highlighted areas that we felt were the best possible areas. We also included the existing breweries and hop farms to show locations that are highly suitable areas are within their proximity.
Here is an example of a municipality we focused in on that we feel, in our opinion, one of the best locations based on weighted overlay. There is existing brewery located nearby in the village of Ridgeway, which is a close to the highly suitable area.
We developed a 3D model in ArcScene to give a more realistic visual interpretation of the area
Although weighted and fuzzy have similar results in regards to the total suitable area, fuzzy comes up with less highly and moderately suitable areas
Quick overview of the budget Comparison chart showing actual vs proposed cost. From our proposed budget of $51K, we came in at just under $32,000. After removing the 10% contingency fee, we were $19,000 under budget. The line graph shows per period actual/proposed costs and indicates we have stayed under budget since the beginning of project.
Highlighting some reasons for being under budget: We overestimated several major tasks geodatabase creation, data analysis, etc
Based on the requirements of the project, we provided a series of maps….
We calculated usable hectares and harvest potential overall and by municipality
Analyzed and pin pointed the best areas of suitability
Created a model that can be used by Geospatial Niagara to determine other areas of suitability or adjust the parmeters
Data inaccuracy (Landuse from 1990)
I would like to introduce Celeste and Chris who will be presenting the exciting Minecraft Project.
![HOPS FARM SITE
SUITABILITY ANALYSIS
OF THE
NIAGARA REGION
Chris MacDonald, Project Manager
Svitlana Hrytsenko, GIS Analyst
The Beer Stein Shop. (2015). Hops [Image] Retrieved from: http://blog.thebeersteinshop.com/](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/d4426796-1c1b-4df4-a4a4-f83211505fad-161007184536/85/Hops-Final-Presentation-1-320.jpg)
