Awarded Top 6 Statewide in Victoria - FMAA Victorian Asset Management Case Competition 2020

1. C A P I T A L
Page 0
Sealink Travel Group Limited (ASX: SLK)
FMAA Victoria Asset Management Case Competition 2020
OVERWEIGHT
Price Target: AUD$4.33
Current Price: AUD$2.57
Investment horizon: 1 year
Investment return: 68.4%
March 2020
School: The University of Melbourne
Team Members: Hun Yao Chong, Hwa Jin Soh, Eugene Shao, Andrew Eo

2. C A P I T A L
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3. C A P I T A L Page 2
Background
1. Global urban bus service market is projected to grow at 10% CAGR for the next three years on the back of government incentives to privatise public transportation
2. Australian tourism is expected to spike when market rebounds
3. SeaLink is one of the major players in tourism and urban bus markets
Industry
Overview
Investment
Theses
Valuation
Key Catalysts
Key Risks
Executive Summary
SeaLink Travel Group (or “SeaLink”) is an Australian company that offers national tourism transportation services. 16 January 2020 marked a pivotal inflection point
with the acquisition of Transit Systems Group, transforming the company into a premier multi-modal transport provider. The combined company has operations in
Australia, Singapore and London.
1. Merger between SeaLink and Transit Systems Group, Australia’s leading bus operator, brings significant revenue growth in their domestic segment. Furthermore,
SeaLink’s strong balance sheet allows them to persevere throughout the downturn in tourism industry, and grow alongside the steady rise in demand for public
transportation services.
2. The timely acquisition of Transit Systems places SeaLink in good defensive posture against Covid-19. Having long-term fixed revenue contracts with the
government, Transit Systems’s revenue will not be severely affected by the worsening situation and the travel ban.
3. Our camp holds the view that SeaLink has high prospects of securing future government contracts. In totality, there is A$3.56b in the tender pipeline up for
competition. SeaLink’s (a) expert leadership, (b) impeccable track record for contract wins and (c) longstanding ability to meet KPIs cement our confidence in
SeaLink’s deal origination capabilities
X Capital issues a BUY recommendation on SeaLink Travel Management Group Limited with a target price of A$ 4.33, representing a 68.4% investment return from
the closing price of A$ 2.57 per share on 23 Mar 2020. Our target price was derived using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model as our primary valuation method.
1. Successful expansion in US and NZ market: Submitting tenders for bus contracts in the United States and New Zealand being a near term target
2. Continued efforts of strategic acquisitions: Increased market exposure and ability to become a multi-modal transportation provider
1. Cancellation of contract by government due to coronavirus
2. SeaLink Group’s lost of key personnel
3. Competitive industry landscape

4. C A P I T A L
Industry Analysis – Tourism and Public Transport Industry
Australia’s public transportation market is projected to grow at 10% for the next 3 years on the back of rising incentives of government to privatise public transportation services. Tourism is expected to experience a spike in
revenue when market rebounds. SeaLink’s diversification of revenue is expected to turbo boost its resilience to macro downturns and outperform the market.
Australia’s public transportation market growth outlook remains positive Opportunity for growth in tourism market
Major Competitors in the Bus Transportation MarketGovernment incentives drive privatisation opportunity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2022E2019A 2021E2020E2017A 2018A
+2%
+10%
Urban Bus and Tramway Transport
Market Growth (USD’bn, %) Tailwinds
✓ Government continues to
outsource bus contracts
to private sector
✓ Diversified operations
makes SeaLink resilient to
exogenous shocks
✓ V-shaped recovery in
tourism segment revenue
expected when market
rebounds
✓ Potential to expand into
multi-modal transport
provider
7 7
13
12
Other failuresMechanical
Failures
Publically operatedContracted out
Failures per 100,000 miles (2011)
40%
60%
PrivateGovernment
70%
30%
Estimated growth potential in the
private transportation
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Public TransportAutomotive
Public Transport vs Non-Public
Transport Revenue Growth (%)
Public
transport
growth is
leading
Australia
London
Singapore
The distribution of market share of competitors below are similar, averaged at 10.75%. This
highlights Transit System Group’s stable market share in Australia.
Competitors below takes up 93% of market share, with it being fairly well-distributed. This
presents strong opportunity for Tower Transit (Transit System Group’s subsidiary) to grow.
Competitors below takes up 92% of market share, with 60% concentrated in SBS Transit.
Regulation on monopoly presents opportunity to Tower Transit to grow.
2019
2022
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2021E2020E2019A2018A2017A2016A
Post-COVID 19 Tourism Growth
Pre-COVID 19 Tourism Growth
International passenger
International Passengers and
Tourism Growth (% change)
128,638
131,470
138,251 141,251
135,601
136,442
-10
-5
0
5
10
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2021E2020E2019A2018A2017A2016A
Australia Tourism Market Size
($M) and growth rate (%)
Market size ($AUD)
Covid-19 adjust growth rate
Page 3
Note: 2020E is adjusted for COVID-
19 impact on tourism market
Sources: Source: IBISWorld, Capital IQ, sell-side reports, World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) report, Macquarie Research, the World Bank, SeaLink, X Capital Estimates
Note: Major competitor focused in the bus transportation market as tourism market plays a less significant role revenue-wise.

5. C A P I T A L
0
2mm
4mm
6mm
8mm
-42%
-22%
-2%
18%
38%
Mar-24-2019 Sep-24-2019 Mar-24-2020
SLK share price SLK volume ASX200 Acquisition news
Company Analysis
SeaLink Travel Group was founded in 1989 in Adelaide and has since expanded into a dominant leader in the national tourism transport scene. Despite commendable success in the tourism and freight industries, 16 January
2020 marked a pivotal inflection point with the acquisition of Transit Systems Group, transforming the company into a premier multi-modal transport provider.
Key Financials Diversified Revenue Streams
Key product offeringsResilient Balance Sheet
Key Management and Shareholders Trading Statistics(1)Share Price Performance
Page 4
201 209 251
659
1,234 1,265
FY19AFY17A FY21EFY18A FY22EFY20E
+44%
42 41
38
25
22
19
11 10 11
0%
50%
40%
10%
30%
20%
FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E FY22E
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin
FY17
177
FY19FY18FY16FY15
111
201
251
209 SA & Tasmania
Queensland & NT
CCC, NSW & WA
Corporate
Fraser Island
Eliminations
Revenue was already growing… Pre-acquisition FY20A Post-acquisition FY21ETop line expansion exceed margins contraction post acquisition of Transit Systems Group
18%
Low debtors' exposure
Name Position
Clint Feuerherdt Group Chief Executive Officer
Andrew D. Muir Chief Financial Officer & Company Secretary
Donna Gauci Chief Operating Officer
Chris Benson Chief Information Officer
Joanne H. McDonald General Counsel & Company Secretary
Richard Doyle Head of International Sales
Brooke Martlew Chief People Officer
Share Price $2.57
Enterprise Value (m) $512.60
Market Capitalisation (m) $561.30
LTM Net Debt $(48.7)
LTM EV/EBITDA 10.4x
LTM EV/EBIT 16.5x
LTM P/E 16.5x
LTM P/B 2.42x
Sources: Macquarie Research, Capital IQ, CFRA Research, SeaLink Travel Group
Notes: (1) As of 23 March 2020
51%49%
Major Shareholder (Public) %
Neil Smith 15.31
Leishman Family Trust 8.55
Bennelong Australian Equity Partners Ltd. 4.47
Cleveland Transport Trust 4.22
Perennial Value Management Ltd. 3.54
Public
Private
ASX.SLK
4%
95%
1%
Corp. TravelSeaLink
80%
20%
0%
47%
37%
16%
Flight Travel
Public Transportation Government Contracts
0
2
4
6
8
10
20121996 2004 2020
RemainingTerm(years)
WA
LN
VIC
SA
NSW
NT
SG
Long Term Debt
Cash & Equivalent
Short Term Debt
Revenue
27%
21%30%
22%
82%
Transit Systems Group
SeaLink
18%
Each bubble represents size of contract
Total: A$895m (24)
Tourism & Ferry ServicesPublic Transportation
Australia
Singapore & United Kingdom
Credit Ratios
Total Debt/EBITDA 0.4x
S.T. Debt/EBITDA 0.3x
L.T. Debt/EBITDA 0.3x
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19A
Receipts from customers (A$m)
Sales Revenue(A$m)
Uniform timing between revenue
recognized and cash received
SeaLink

6. C A P I T A L
Investment Thesis 1 – Untapped value from strategic merger
Merger between SeaLink and Transit Systems Group - number 1 bus operator brings significant growth potential in both domestic and international market. This allows SeaLink to persevere with strong balance sheet throughout
downturn in tourism industry and grow through further steady rise in demand of public transportation services
Cross-pollination of management expertise Opening doors to new possibilities
Jeff Ellison
CEO and MD (retiring)
✓ Experience: 28+ years
✓ Appointed in 1997
✓ At the helm of the ferries and
tourism group for 21 years
✓ Stepping down as SeaLink CEO
✓ Agreed to remain in the board to
provide advice to Clint
✓ Promising recurrence of contract wins
offshore and retention rate history
throughout his tenure in Transit Systems
✓ Instrumental to building Transit Systems
Marine (later acquired by SeaLink)
Clint Feuerherdt
CEO of Transit Group & Incoming CEO of SeaLink Group
Neil Smith
Founding shareholder & current chairman of Transit Systems
✓ Over 30 years of commuter transport operations
experience in domestic and international markets
✓ Own approximately 15.3% of SeaLink shares on issue upon
completion of the Acquisition
✓ Clint has extensive experience
in marine transportations,
introducing new angles to the
ferry tourism market
✓ Clint is eminent in securing
contracts and will help realise
the vision of a multi-modal
transport provider
✓ Neil’s shareholding position
reflects his optimism in
SeaLink’s future prospects
✓ Merger brings in international
capabilities with experienced
personnel handling the
Singapore and UK region
✓ Potential for SeaLink to expand
its tourism business to
Singapore and UK
✓ SeaLink utilising Transit System’s buses to advertise its
Australian destinations on buses in London and Singapore,
thereby creating awareness offshore of SeaLink’s offering
✓ This was also flagged as a major opportunity for emerging
tourist destinations in SeaLink’s portfolio such as Tiwi
Islands
✓ Integration of bus and marine transportations allows SeaLink to diversify
and expand into a multi-modal transportation solutions to local
government
✓ The potential to operate trams has also been flagged by management,
with this now being realised with the announcement of the North South
region in Adelaide in March 2020
✓ In the medium to long term, the combined group has sufficient influence
and scale to look into expansion at New Zealand, US, Asia and Europe
SeaLink to benefit from diversified revenue stream
30
50
7
5
8
Europe Americas TotalAsia Other
continents
Predicted global employment loss in
the travel and tourism industry due
to the COVID-19 in 2020, by region
(in millions)
82%
18%
Tourism market
Public Transportation market
SeaLink’s Revenue Stream
Domestic
✓ Travel and tourism
market is in dire trouble
due to COVID outbreak
✓ SeaLink is in better
position compared to its
competitors in tourism
market with only 18% of
its revenue exposed
✓ Public transport remains
an essential service for
commuting
COVID-19 factor overstated on SeaLink’s share price
0.0E+00
2.0E+06
4.0E+06
6.0E+06
8.0E+06
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
Mar-22-2019 Jun-22-2019 Sep-22-2019 Dec-22-2019
SeaLink Travel Group vs. ASX 200
Share Price
Volume SeaLink Travel Group
ASX 200 Index
CBOE Volatility Index
(annual % change)
✓ A spike in uncertainty over the recent 3 months due to COVID-19 has resulted in under-pricing of SeaLink
✓ Management guidance reports estimated $9.5 million EBITDA impact in 2H20 on their tourism and marine business
due to coronavirus and bushfire, but no impact on Transit System Group business
✓ This does not justify the ~20% drop in share price in 1H20
Page 5
Sources: Company Merger Report, sell-side reports, Yahoo Finance, Statista, Macquarie Research

7. C A P I T A L
Post-SARS tourism spike
Investment Thesis 1 – Untapped value from strategic merger (cont’d)
SeaLink and Transit System Group’s to take advantage of steady revenue stream from its public transportation segment in addition to its revamped management team to penetrate the market and provide a streamlined integrated
service to the growing tourism market
Good prospects for tourism industry post COVID-19 Demonstrated ability of capturing offshore market share
Chinese
residents
visiting
Australia
Australian
residents
visiting China
Increasing number of China tourist
Sources: Company Report, Austrade, IBISWorld, Macquarie Research
Awareness of locations
by Chinese residents
78
6 20
96 106
230
125
42
0
100
200
300
400
0
500
1,000
1,500
Hong
Kong
IndiaSingaporeUK South
Korea
USA MalaysiaChina NZ Japan
000’s (2018-19)% change (2008-09 to 2018-19)
303
28
Short term visitor arrivals in Australia
19%
19%
19%
14%
14%
9%
7%
Canberra
AdelaideGold Coast
Kangaroo Island
Barossa ValleyMelbourne
Sydney ✓ Sydney and Kangaroo Island are famous amongst
growing number of Chinese tourists
✓ SeaLink in a good position to capture further
market share through Captain Cook Cruises
(Sydney) and their operations at Kangaroo Island
✓ Clint demonstrated his
capabilities through
promising recurrence
of contract wins
offshore, and high
retention rate of
domestic contracts
✓ Demonstrated history
of entering offshore
market through
strategic acquisitions,
such as FirstGroup Plc
(London penetration)
in FY13 and Sita Group
(Melbourne
penetration) in FY19
Date Settled Target Rationale Performance
16-Jan-20 Transit Systems Group
26-Mar-18 Kingfisher Bay Resort Group
2-May-16 Captain Cook Cruises WA
6-Nov-15 Transit Systems Marine
Strong top line growth achieved via new
contract wins, re-tendering success, and
targeted acquisitions
✓ TBC
✓ FY18 performance in line with expectations
✓ FY19 performance is unclear - management
speaks positively of progress and contribution
✓ FY16 performance in line with expectations
✓ FY17 performance slightly under-performed
✓ FY16 and FY17’s performance in line with
expectations
✓ Greater exposure to contracted revenue
streams
✓ Cross-selling to existing customer base,
exposure to prime tourism locations with
strong barriers to entry, add to existing tourism
hospitality and marine transport capabilities
✓ Gain exposure to Western Australia market
✓ Gain exposure to marine opportunity
SeaLink’s acquisitions have achieved expectations thus far
✓ SeaLink’s strong track record of
successful mergers is evident
through their consistency of
meeting expectations from
mergers
✓ Clint was instrumental to to
building Transit Systems Group’s
marine operations before it got
acquired by SeaLink
✓ This well positions Clint to
takeover operations in SeaLink
which was previously managed by
Jeff Ellison
✓ Clint has successfully lifted the
revenue drag of Captain Cook
Cruises
Page 6
FY00
Adelaide
East West,
SA
FY05
Adelaide
North South
& Outer
North East,
SA
FY10
Clint Graeme
join Transit
System Group
FY13
Sydney Region
3, NSW
London
acquisition
from
FirstGroup
Plc
FY15
Sold the
marine
business to
SeaLink
FY16
Singapore
entry
FY18
Sydney
Region 6,
NSW
FY19
Sita Group
acquisition
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
WA SA London NSW (R3) NT Singapore NSW (R6) Vic
FY01-FY15
Investment in marine business,
subsequently sold to SeaLink
FY01-FY19A CAGR
(excluding marine): 17%
7
-3
0
-2
11
4
6 6
3
-6
6 5 5 6
4 5
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
12/11
11/10
10/09
09/08
07/06
02/01
04/03
08/07
05/04
03/02
06/05
01/00
15/14
00/99
17/16
16/15
14/13
13/12
International tourism receipts,
change (real terms, %)
✓ A spike in the tourism industry post-SARS may be a helpful
benchmark to predict the post COVID-19 situation
✓ This increase in tourism is significant to SeaLink cash flow
stream

8. C A P I T A L
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TS revenue in WA tourism growth
QLD
Floods
2019
Bushfire
H1N1
Outbreak
Investment Thesis 2 – SeaLink is a top defensive player against COVID-19
Steady Revenue: long term government contracts minimise SeaLink exposure to tourism downturn
“Bus contracts are typically structured with Transit Systems only exposed to operating performance.”
– Macquarie Research
“The combined impact of bushfires and coronavirus… with no impact on Transit System’s business.”
– SeaLink
Major government clients
On-Time running performance
ü Public transport is considered an “essential service” as per
announcement by the government
ü Pubic transportation operations as per usual
Defensive
Low Risk
Reliable
TS revenue in WA ($M) and change in international
tourist arrival in Australia
Indexed long-term contracts
Australia
London
Singapore
✓ Typically 6-10 years
✓ Government has option to
extend contract depending
on performance
✓ Typically 5 years
✓ Government has option to
extend contract for 2 years
depending on performance
✓ Typically 5 years
✓ Government has option to
extend contract for 2 years
depending on performance
✓ TS has a good track record of meeting KPIs. This mitigates risk of failure to
contract renewal with government as per evident from their 91% contract
renewal rate to date.
Good performance increases contract renewal rate
Most revenue derived from contracts in commuter sector
ü Risks associated with uncontrollable revenue
items (e.g. fare box risk) are retained by
government.
Natural disasters and pandemics had limited impact on Transit Systems’ revenue in history
SARS
Outbreak
Cyclones
&
Droughts
GFC
Major Client Country
WA government Australia
SA government Australia
VIC government Australia
NSW government Australia
NT government Australia
Singapore government Singapore
London government United Kingdom
✓ Transit System has a strong track record of
contract renewals – with only 2 renewal
failures over a span of 24 years
✓ Government retaining external risks contributes largely to Transit Systems resilience to economic and
tourism downturns in history.
✓ Contracts with CPI and wage indexing only exposed to operating performance make Transit Systems
defensive to Covid-19
✓ Unlikely for the Government to breach long-term contracts with Transit Systems because of short term
negative impact of Covid-19
✓ This is solidified by offshore competitor, ComfortDelGro, who never experienced a transportation
authority counterparty terminating without cause
✓ There is demand for bus operation even in a severe economic downturn
✓ Transit Systems has 91% renewal rate across 24 years in the business
✓ Passing assets and liabilities onto new bus service providers is a complex process which generates heavy
inertia and high costs to the Government when it comes to switching operators
✓ This increases tendency of market share retention by Transit System in Australia
82%
18%
TourismCommuter
83%
17%
Uncontracted Revenue
Contracted Revenue
The acquisition of Transit Systems has placed SeaLink in a good defensive posture against Covid-19. Having long-term fixed revenue contracts with the government, Transit Systems’s revenue will not be severely affected by the
worsening situation and the travel ban
On-time running performance
Page 7
Sources: Macquarie Research, the World Bank, SeaLink, X Capital Estimates

9. C A P I T A L
Domestic Operations
Investment Thesis 2 – SeaLink is a top defensive player against COVID-19 (cont’d)
Ferry business less affected by Covid-19
SeaLink Group’s marine business which comprises 17% of total revenue is more likely to be affected by Covid-19 pandemic. Negative impacts of Covid-19 can be minimised through (a) cost-reduction strategies and (b) government
support. SeaLink estimated a reduction of $9.5million on EBITDA of its ferry business, 13.11% of its estimated total EBITDA prior to the pandemic, compared to the 40% drop in share price, indicating undervaluation
Government supportCost reduction strategies
ü Yet long-distance water freight is severely impacted by restrictions on export and import, there is a spike in
demand from within-country logistics and freight service due to the increasing demand from online orders.
Short-distance water freight industry has a positive outlook
Suspend Tourism
Operation
Defer
expenditure
✓ Suspending tourism dining and sightseeing
operations on Sydney Harbour and cruises
in South Australia
Scale back
discretionary
business
✓ Targeted scaling back of some discretionary
touring and marine services in Australia
✓ Deferring all non-essential projects and capital
expenditure
Work with
government
✓ Working closely with government to keep
cities moving in a safe and reliable manner
In response to Covid-19 pandemic
Cost cut – Key Operating Expenses
QLD NT SA NSW WA TAS
Waiver of
utility or
other fees
Concessional
loan
Payroll tax
refund
Direct
financial
support
ü
ü
ü
ü SeaLink is eligible to various kinds of supports
from governments
Summary
ü
ü ü ü
ü
ü
ü
ü SeaLink owns many
brands across regions in
Australia
ü ü ü
ü
ü Covid-19 impact
on water freight
is expected to be
smaller than on
tourism
ü The water
freight industry
is capital
intensive with
high barriers to
entry
ü 16 vehicles and freight ferries
ü 50 passenger ferries
ü 12 accommodation and dining
vessels
ü SeaLink owns freight ferries in key
ports in Australia, enabling the
company to expand capacity in
response to the increasing demand.
ü In-country water freight is considered
an essential service and will continue
operation during the pandemic.
52%
25%
16%
5%
2%
SeaLink Revenue by
Geographic Region
WA
NSW
SA
TASQLD&NT
19%
17%
16%
19%
16%
19%
16%
1%
SeaLink Ferry Business
Cost Structure
Meals & Beverage Depreciation
Others
Repairs & Maintenance
Commission Tour Cost
AccommodationFuel
ü 25% estimated cost reduction
ü Suspension of tourism
operation saves 100% of tour,
meals & beverage,
accommodation costs
ü Because of the seasonal
nature of tourism, some
contracts with employees are
short-termed. It is easy to cut
wage expense
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020E
Freight Market Size Freight Growth Tourism Growth
Page 8
Ability to increase business capacity in freight service Government support varies by region
Sources: Macquarie Research, The World Back, Company Report, X Capital Analysis

10. C A P I T A L
Opportunity for additional 30% market share
New & Renewed Contracts Timeline
Investment Thesis 3 – Huge potential growth pipeline in domestic and offshore markets
Our camp holds the view that SeaLink has high prospects of securing future government contracts. In totality, there is A$3.56b in the tender pipeline up for competition. SeaLink’s (a) expert leadership, (b) impeccable track
record for contract wins and (c) longstanding ability to meet KPIs cement our confidence in SeaLink’s deal origination capabilities
Page 9
New South Wales – expanding market
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
100
150
125
Sydney (NSW)
Transperth
Melbourne
Adelaide
SEQ
Sources: Grand Thornton Corporate Finance, Macquarie Research, SeaLink and Affiliates, Australian Bureau of Statistics
Notes: (1) Sydney Morning Herald, (2) Motor Vehicle Census & Demographic Data from ABS, (3) The Age
Bus Patronage Index
8%
4%
10%
6%
7%
8%
10%
47%
NSW
VIC
Las Vegas
Denver
Singapore
West Covina
Phoenix
London
Potential Future Contracts
Sydney Region 6 Contract Win – stamp of approval
A$1.15b
Quality services ran by forward looking management
92 93
90
93
97
88
92 92 90
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Other ContractsClaremont Marmion
92
FY16
FY17
FY18
OverallSatisfaction(%)
Customer Satisfaction Ratings
Victoria – potential for further market ingress
✓ Bus patronage continues to grow in NSW, as the region’s undulating terrain indicates a secular tailwind for bus
services over tram services
✓ SeaLink strategically positioned to take advantage of growing TAM, with almost half of tender pipeline dedicated to
New South Wales
✓ SeaLink has submitted 4 contracts for tender in NSW, totalling A$1.15b. Winning 2/4 of the contracts in tender will
garner ~A$600m of revenue
Sydney Region 6 Bus Route
Transit Systems Group
ü In 2018, Transit Systems signed the largest metropolitan bus contract in
Australia, introducing 600 buses and 1,200 new staff
ü Region 6 comprises 4 of the busiest bus routes in Sydney
ü 2nd
contract win after Sydney Region 3 in 2013, and after their 2nd
successive year as the leading on-time operator in the region
ü Strong vote of confidence from the Government given the complexity of
Region 6 and relative youth in the region
ü Strong track record for closing new deals and securing renewals – 20
successful tenders in 24 years, with only 2 non-renewals
Jan-2000
25k
Jan-1980 Jan-1990 Jan-2010 Jan-2020
0
50k
WA
VIC
NSW
Change in population per quarter
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Midland Canning
East West
Claremont
Marmion
DoE Special Schools
25/N25
23/N23
328
28/N28
W15
SMBSC Region 3
Darwin
Busselton
BunburySouthern River
WA SA VIC London
NSW NT SG Bulim
Westbourne
College
13/N13
Albany
NS &
Outer NE
SMBSC Region 6
PTV
89
Demand Responsive Services utilizes
proprietary predictive technology to
enhance resource allocation
Customer-oriented work culture means Transit Systems consistently scores
higher when it comes to customer satisfaction
National Avg.
Routing and customer allocation algorithms
optimize bus service for passengers
More direct routes, higher service
frequency, shorter journey times
Reduces operational cost while improving
customer service
Experienced and progressive leadership
ensures good customer relationships
ü Urbanisation trends suggest Melbourne to become the
largest Australian city by 2026 (1)
ü Population growth exceeds passenger vehicle growth(2)
ü Need for public transportation continues to grow
Joondalup
30%
16%
49%
Transit Systems
5%
ComfortDelgro
Transdev
Others
ü Low market share base indicates
legroom for growth
ü Transdev’s contract to run 30% of
bus routes set to expire in 2021
ü Government plans to increase
competition in industry
ü Transit Systems well postured for
contract win
ü Transdev tenure in Melbourne can be characterized as
unsuccessful, plagued with defective fleets(3)
ü Failed to meet contractual punctuality obligations(3)
ü ComfortDelgro have monopoly market share if contract won
ü Unlikely as they are international firm and already has 16%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

11. C A P I T A L
Investment Thesis 3 – Huge potential growth pipeline in both domestic and offshore markets (cont’d)
Our camp holds the view that SeaLink has high prospects of securing future government contracts. In totality, there is A$3.56b in the tender pipeline up for competition. SeaLink’s (a) expert leadership, (b) impeccable track
record for contract wins and (c) longstanding ability to meet KPIs cement our confidence in SeaLink’s deal origination capabilities
Page 10
Singapore – unique opportunity
Sources: Macquarie Research, Transit Systems, US Bureau of Transportation, SMRT Corporation, SBS Transit, Our World in Data, Pew Research Center, Statistica
Notes: (1) Survey conducted May 10 – June 6, 2016 (Pew Research Centre). (2) Bus Industry Confederation, Australia
History seldom repeats, but it often rhymes
25
80~ 9%
31
+200Number of Bus Routes
ü May 2015 marked Transit System’s entry into the Singaporean market as the 1st
non-Singaporean transport operator
ü Successfully won a competitive tender for “Bulim” contract ahead of 10 other bidders including incumbent operators
ü Won despite being the 3rd cheapest bidder. Alludes to the outstanding service quality of Transit Systems
ü SG Government shift to contracts model in 2014 indicates commitment to incite competition in transportation sector
Market penetration imminent
Privatisation transformed Singapore’s taxi industry
ü Took over operations of Tower Transit from Andrew Bujtor in 2019 who had successfully
erected the business in 2015
ü Former Brigadier General in the Singapore Armed Forces, BG Winston Toh was Commander of
9th Infantry Division and Chief Infantry Officer
ü The appointment is likely to be Government influenced, and is a sign that Tower Transit is
here to stay
Army Generals as Head of Transport Divisions is a recurring pattern in Singapore
2012 – Desmond Kuek (CEO)
Former Chief of Defense
Lieutenant General
2018 – Neo Kian Hong (CEO)
Former Chief of Defense
Lieutenant General
2008 – Gan Juay Kiat (CEO)
Former Senior Commander
Lieutenant-colonel
2020 – Cheng Siak Kian(CEO)
Former Air Force Commander
Brigadier General
2015 – Andrew Butjor (MD)
Inception of Tower Transit
First contract win in SG
2019 – Winston Toh (MD)
Former Chief Infantry Officer
Brigadier General
2 contracts in the pipeline
up for tender in Singapore
Strong signal of support
towards Tower Transit
from Government
We believe Tower Transit
will win at least one if not
both contracts
United States – going green Government transit revenues and expenditures on the rise
1970-1995
2003-2007
2013-2020
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$40bn
$70bn
$60bn
15m
0
5m
10m
20m
2014 20152013 2016 20182017 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Expanding US Government Budget for Transit
Government Revenue (Transit)
Government Expenditure (Transit)
US yearly passenger vehicle purchases
75%
20%
25%
63% 13% 4%
Particularly Concerned Not Particularly
Concerned
% of U.S. adults concerned about helping the environment(1)
% of U.S. adults who say they are environmentally friendly(1)
Always Sometimes Not at allSeldom
US populace understands the pressing need to reduce carbon emissions… United States
5 contracts (~27%) in tender
pipeline
US bus transportation
underdeveloped and growing
Almost all of West Coast transit
operators are public agencies
Cost savings incentivise State
Governments to go private
ü Climate change in
the spotlight
ü Survey shows that
US individuals are
willing to take
action
ü Cars account for
more than 50% of
CO2 emissions
ü Buses account for
less than 10% of
CO2 emissions
“A full bus takes 40 cars off the road”
– BIC(2)
ü Higher proportion of the US Budget dedicated
to public transportation
ü Government Expenditure on transit has
increased 5% year on year from 2007-2016
ü Expenditure exceeds revenue, and privatisation
can reduce expenditure
ü Decelerating passenger vehicle sales despite
period of economic boom
ü Implies possible shift to alternatives such as bus
transportation
ü Opportunity for Transit Systems to participate
in growing TAM
0
50
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CO2 emissions for road transport (‘000s Gg)
Buses
Passenger Cars

12. C A P I T A L
2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
Valuation – BUY recommendation by X Capital
X Capital issues a BUY recommendation on SeaLink Travel Management Group Limited with a target price of A$ 4.33, representing a 68.4% investment return from the closing price of A$ 2.57 per share on 23 Mar 2020. Our target
price was derived using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model as our primary valuation method.
Discounted cash flow model input assumptions
Weighted average cost of capital assumptions
Impact of Bushfire/Covid-19
to last until 2H20
✓ Management suspended its guidance of $5m for 2H20 EBITDA as a potential impact
from both bushfire and COVID-19
✓ EBITDA impact from estimates for COVID-19 and bush fires adjusted from an earlier
$7m to $9.5m for 2H20E
Football field analysis
Football Field – Fair Value of Equity Details
Valuation
Methodology
52 W High / Low
SOTP Valuation
Dividend Discount
Model
DCF Exit Multiple
DCF Gordon Growth
Residual Income
Model
Current Price
A$ 2.57
ü Low: A$2.57 on 23
Mar 2020
ü High: A$ 5.22 on 9
Nov 2020
ü Tourism EV/FY+1
EBITDA: 7.9x
ü Transit System EV/
FY+1 EBITDA: 8.0x
ü Dividend Payout
Ratio: 60%
ü Projection Period: 5
Years
ü Exit Multiple
(EV/EBITDA): 8.0x
ü Projection Period: 5
Years
ü Terminal Growth
Rate: 1%
Potential contract wins are not
factored into our estimates and
thus represent upside risk
✓ Transit Systems Group is targeting a tender pipeline of over A$ 3.5 billion across
existing end markets and the US before 2025
✓ This provides potential significant revenue opportunities for the group
SeaLink is expected to grow in
line/outperform the inbound
tourism industry
✓ SeaLink’s growth rate has been outperforming the industry over the last 4 years with a
CAGR of 22% from FY15 to FY19 (vs. industry growth rate: c.5%)
✓ Assumed SeaLink to grow in line with the inbound tourism industry after the recovery
of Covid-19
Established track record of re-
contracting and re-tendering
history
✓ 20 successful tenders and renewals over its 24 year history in Australia, with only 2
non-renewals
✓ Long-term relationship with governments as incumbent operator on routes
✓ Hence, we expect SeaLink to succeed in renewing all TransLink contracts
8.13% Cost of Equity
&
2.51% After–tax Cost of Debt
Sources: Capital IQ, sell-side reports, X Capital Estimates, MergerMarket, Sell-side reports, Factset
Target Price
A$ 4.33
CAPM Inputs Source
Risk Free Rate 1.50% Australia 20-Years Government Bond Rate
Market Return 7.50% Sum of equity risk premium and risk free rate
Equity Risk Premium 6.00% FMAA & Yahoo Finance
Country Risk Premium 0.04% Aswath Damodaran
Adjusted Beta 1.2 Bottom up from peers
Cost of Equity 8.74% ü Cost of Equity Used:
8.74%
Long run D/E
ratio of 0.56
WACC of 6.51%
8.74% Cost of Equity
&
2.51% After–tax Cost of Debt
Page 11

13. C A P I T A L
Investment Catalysts and Risk
X Capital’s investment recommendation presents a 1:4.2 risk to reward ratio and follows a one-year horizon due to the main catalysts being the successful expansion in US and NZ and the continued efforts of strategic acquisitions.
Key catalysts Scenario Analysis
Key investment risks
1
Cancellation of contracts
by Government due to
Covid-19
✓ Many of Transit Systems’ contracts are terminable for convenience and are non-exclusive. As a result, cessation of
government bus contracts when Transit Systems is not at default is possible. Termination of convenience clauses are
commonplace in government
✓ This is unlikely as: An offshore competitor, ComfortDelGro, who has exposure to London, Singapore and Australia has
advised that they have never experienced a transportation authority counterparty terminating without cause
SeaLink Group’s lost of key
personnel
✓ The unexpected departure of any key members of management or operating personnel may prevent or
delay completion of the Acquisition and / or may have a material adverse effect on the financial
performance of Transit Systems Group and SeaLink after completion of the Acquisition
✓ Conflict in efforts to integrate management team due to various factors such as difference in culture and
silo-ed communication
3
Competitive Industry
Landscape
✓ SLK enjoys sole operator status on a large number of the routes it operates. Entrants of new competitors or
aggressive campaigns from existing competitors could impact both SLK’s passenger numbers and/or pricing power
and could impact financial performance
✓ This is unlikely as: The public transportation industry has extremely high barriers to entry. With its extensive market
share and its potential to scale up in the tourism industry, it will be difficult for new entrants to compete
LikelihoodofOccurrence
Impact on Business
Source: Macquarie Research
1
1
2
2
3
3
Continued efforts of strategic acquisitions:
Increased market exposure and ability to become a
multi-modal transportation provider
2
Successful expansion in US and NZ markets:
Submitting tenders for bus contracts in the United
States and New Zealand being a near term target
1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Oct-01-2019Jul-01-2019Apr-01-2019 Oct-01-2020Apr-01-2020 Apr-01-2021Jul-01-2020 Jan-01-2021Jan-01-2020
AUD 4.33
Base: 68.4%
AUD 1.92
Base: -25.2%
AUD 5.28
Base: 105.4%
Risk to Reward
1 to 4.2
Page 12

14. End of main deck
C A P I T A L
March 2020
School: The University of Melbourne
Team Members: Hun Yao Chong, Hwa Jin Soh, Eugene Shao, Andrew Eo
Page 13

15. Page 14
Appendix
C A P I T A L

16. C A P I T A L
Valuation: Peers Comparison
Summary Valuation Multiples
Company name Ticker
Mkt Cap
(USD m)
EV (USD m) P/E EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA growth (%)
FY+1 FY+2 FY+1 FY+2 FY+1 FY+2 FY+1 FY+2 FY+1 FY+2
Tourism & Travel Exposed
Helloworld Travel Ltd ASX:HLO 76.9 63.3 7.3x 6.7x 4.4x 4.0x 3.1x 2.8x 23.2% 24.1% 11.0% 7.7%
Experience Co Ltd ASX: EXP 26.6 47.3 51.6x 12.1x 31.1x 10.7x 8.8x 6.0x 11.7% 15.8% -48.4% 46.5%
Event Hospitality & Entertainment Limited ASX:EVT 556.7 1,109.9 16.2x 14.1x 17.3x 15.2x 10.7x 9.7x 24.2% 25.1% 1.7% 9.9%
Flight Centre Travel Group Limited ASX:FLT 576.9 894.1 13.9x 10.9x 11.7x 9.1x 6.9x 5.9x 14.6% 16.1% 5.9% 18.0%
Webjet Limited ASX:WEB 293.5 313.3 10.1x 8.5x 9.6x 8.0x 6.7x 5.8x 37.5% 38.9% 22.7% 15.6%
Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd ASX:ATL 49.0 408.0 5.6x 4.5x 14.1x 12.6x 7.3x 6.8x 16.0% 16.5% -9.7% 7.0%
Tourism Holdings Limited NZSE:THL 377.0 648.0 15.6x 12.0x 11.3x 10.7x 5.6x 5.5x 26.2% 26.8% -3.4% 2.4%
Global Public Transport - bus (limited rall exposure)
National Express Group PLC LSE:NEX 652.3 2,164.4 9.6x 9.0x 10.9x 10.4x 6.6x 6.3x 16.9% 16.7% 0.8% 3.7%
Comfortdelgro Corporation Limited SGX:C52 2,058.3 2,507.9 14.0x 13.4x 11.2x 10.7x 5.6x 5.4x 21.6% 21.7% -2.9% 2.8%
Nobina AB OM:NOBINA 351.0 901.8 15.1x 13.7x 19.2x 18.1x 6.6x 6.4x 16.5% 16.2% 2.7% 4.2%
Global Public Transport - bus (substantial rail exposure)
Go-Ahead Group plc LSE:GOG 328.3 841.8 10.3x 9.8x 5.0x 4.7x 3.0x 2.9x 5.4% 6.3% -5.1% 3.1%
Stagecoach Group plc LSE:SGC 419.0 873.1 7.2x 8.4x 8.5x 8.9x 4.5x 4.6x 15.1% 16.4% -0.8% 1.2%
FirstGroup plc LSE:FGP 557.5 2,957.3 6.4x 6.5x 9.4x 9.4x 3.7x 3.9x 11.5% 11.1% -3.7% 0.6%
SeaLink Travel Management Group (Pro forma group) ASX:SLK 323.1 295.0 9.4x 7.0x 9.0x 7.0x 4.6x 4.6x 11.2 12.2 52.7 25.0
Tourism & Travel Exposed Weighted Average 14.4x 11.4x 13.6x 11.6x 7.9x 7.1x 23.3% 24.5% 4.5% 12.0%
Global Public Transport - bus Weighted Average 13.2x 12.5x 12.4x 11.8x 6.2x 5.9x 20.0% 20.0% -1.5% 3.2%

17. C A P I T A L
Valuation: Precedent Transaction Analysis
Precedent Transaction Analysis
Date Target Acquirer Stake (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT
Domestic Tourism Transactions and Bids Minority
Oct-03 Hamilton Island Enterprises Voyages Hotels & Resorts 100% 1.7x 8.1x 12.4x
Oct-03 Hamilton Island Enterprises 21st Century Resorts 100% 2.1x 9.8x 15.2x
Jun-10 FreightLink (Asia Pacific Transport Finance) Genesee & Wyoming 100% 8.0x
Nov-11 Captain Cook Cruises Sydney Harbour SeaLink 100% 9.0x
Dec-12 Airtrain Holdings Universities Superannuation Scheme 100% 16.6x
Nov-14 Sheraton Noosa Resort Valad Property Group (Blackstone) 100%
Mar-15 Perisher Blue Vail Resorts 100% 8.8x
Sep-15 Transit Systems (Marine business) SeaLink 100% 6.6x
Feb-16 Captain Cook Cruises WA SeaLink 100% 9.2x
Oct-17 Mantra Group AAPC Limited (Accor S.A.) 100% 11.3x
Dec-17 Big Cat Green Island Reff River Cruises and Tropical Journeys Experience Co 100% 5.6x
Feb-18 Kingfisher Bay Resort SeaLink 100% 5.4x
Feb-19 Australian Alphine Enterprises (Hotham Ski Resort and Falls Creek Ski Resort) Vail Resorts 100% 9.7x
Median 1.9x 8.9x 13.8x
Mean 1.9x 9.0x 13.8x
Australia & New Zealand Bus Transport
Dec-14 Forest Coach Lines Next Capital 75% 7.4x
Apr-18 Tullamarine Bus Lines CDC Victoria (Comfort DelGro) 100% 9.9x
Aug-18 FCL Holdings (Foerst Coach Lines) ComfortDelGro (Australia) 100% 8.1x
Aug-18 Coastal Linear Coaches ComfortDelGro (Australia) 100%
Nov-18 Buslink ComfortDelGro 100% 7.9x
Dec-18 NZ Bus Next Capital 100% 8.9x
Apr-19 B&E Branch ComfortDelGro (Australia) 100% 7.6x
Aug-19 Howick & Eastern Buses (NZ) Transdec Australasia (Voelia) 100%
Oct-19 Mana Coach Services (NZ) Transdec Australasia (Voelia) 100%
Median N.A 8.0x N.A
Mean N.A 8.3x N.A
International Bus Transport
Apr-10 Arriva Plc Deutsche Bahn AG 100% 0.7x 6.9x 13.8x
Mar-12 Hedingham & District Omnibuses Go-Ahead 100%
May-12 Coach America Inc Stagecoach Group 5.5x
Apr-13 FirstGroup Plc - London bus business Transit Systems 100%
Jul-16 SMRT Corporation Temasek Holdings 46% 2.4x 12.9x 30.9x
Jul-18 Ric-tat Travel & Coach Services ComfotyDelGro 100%
Feb-18 Student Transportation Caisse de Depot et Pleacement du Quebec and Ullico 92% 1.5x 11.3x 23.1x
Dec-18 Coach USA LLC (North American operations of Stagecoach Group) Variant Equity Advisors 100% 3.2x
Feb-19 Queens Road Bus Depot (seller FirstGroup) Go-Ahead 100%
Jul-19 A Bjorks AB Transdev 100%
Median 1.5x 6.9x 23.1x
Mean 1.5x 8.0x 22.6x

18. C A P I T A L
Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Upside (EMM): 19.13% Upside (GGM): 68.39%
Cost of Equity Units Terminal Value: Gordon Growth Model Units
Equity Value AUD'000 555,915 FY24 Free Cash Flow AUD'000 68,384
Risk Free Rate % 1.50% Terminal Growth Rate % 1.00%
Market Risk Premium % 6.00% Terminal Value AUD'000 1,254,514
Adjusted Beta % 1.20 Implied Exit Multiple x 11.0x
Country Risk Premium % 0.04% Present Value of Terminal Value AUD'000 944,714
Cost of Equity % 8.74%
Terminal Value: Exit Multiple Method Units
Cost of Debt Units FY24 EBITDA AUD'000 114,472
Debt Value AUD'000 311,297 Exit Multiple: EV/EBITDA x 8.0x
Pre-tax Cost of Debt % 3.47% Terminal Value AUD'000 915,777
Tax Shield % 27.6% Implied TGR % -0.9%
After-tax Cost of Debt % 2.51% Present Value of Terminal Value AUD'000 668,234
Capital Structure Units DCF Valuation (Gordon Growth)
Proportion of Equity Capital % 64.1% Present Value of Cumulative FCFF AUD'000 236,515
Proportion of Debt Capital % 35.9% Present Value of Terminal Value AUD'000 944,714
Weighted Average Cost of Capital %
6.51%
Terminal Value as a % of Total Value % 80.0%
Implied Enterprise Value AUD'000 1,181,230
DCF Valuation (Exit Multiple) Less: Debt AUD'000 (311,297)
Present Value of Cumulative FCFF AUD'000 236,515 Less: Non-controlling Interest AUD'000 -
Present Value of Terminal Value AUD'000 668,234 Add: Cash AUD'000 75,211
Terminal Value as a % of Total Value % 73.9% Add: Investments AUD'000 -
Implied Enterprise Value AUD'000 904,749 Implied Equity Value AUD'000 945,143
Implied Equity Value AUD'000 668,663
Fair Value per Share AUD 3.06 Fair Value per Share AUD 4.33
Upside % 19.1% Upside % 68.4%
Free Cash Flow to Equity Units 2018 A 2019 A 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E
Earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) AUD'000 34,774 93,000 59,326 88,177 99,662 101,363 103,107
Less: Taxes AUD'000 (10,076) (21,390) (16,360) (24,353) (27,542) (28,031) (28,532)
Net Operating Profits after Taxes (NOPAT) AUD'000 24,698 71,610 42,966 63,824 72,120 73,332 74,575
Add: Depreciation AUD'000 14,418 18,713 6,404 11,107 11,190 11,276 11,365
Add: Amortisation AUD'000 1,560 1,944 12,808 22,213 22,380 22,553 22,730
Less: Capital Expenditure AUD'000 (13,654) (17,645) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000)
Less: Changes in Net Operating Working Capital AUD'000 1,287 (31,171) 16,312 (15,162) (269) (278) (286)
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) AUD'000 28,309 43,451 38,490 41,982 65,421 66,883 68,384
Discount Factor Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Present Value of Free Cash Flows AUD'000 37,296 38,195 55,884 53,643 51,497

19. C A P I T A L
Valuation: Discounted Dividend Model Valuation & Residual Income Model Valuation
Discounted Dividend Model Valuation
Residual Income Model Valuation
Discounted Dividend Model Valuation Upside (DDM): 55.08%
Terminal Value: Gordon Growth Model Units DDM Valuation (Gordon Growth)
FY24 Dividends Paid AUD'000 42,653 Present Value of Cumulative Dividends AUD'000 145,804
Terminal Growth Rate % 4.52% Present Value of Terminal Value AUD'000 724,618
Terminal Value AUD'000 1,056,533 Terminal Value as a % of Total Value % 83.2%
Present Value of Terminal Value AUD'000 724,618 Implied Equity Value AUD'000 870,422
Fair Value per Share AUD $ 3.99
Upside % 55.08%
Dividends Units 2018 A 2019 A 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E
Net Income AUD'000 22,371 62,841 36,264 59,483 68,015 69,535 71,088
Dividend Payout Ratio AUD'000 65.6% 23.4% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Total Dividends Paid AUD'000 14,667 14,685 21,758 35,690 40,809 41,721 42,653
Dividend per Share AUD 0.0672 0.0672 0.0996 0.1634 0.1869 0.1910 0.1953
Discount Factor Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Present Value of Dividends AUD'000 20,865 31,474 33,096 31,115 29,253
Residual Income Model Valuation Upside (RIM): 6.28%
RIM Assumptions Units RIM Valuation Units
Abnormal Earnings in FY24 AUD'000 1,387 Cumulative PV of Abnormal Earnings AUD'000 (9,493)
Growth Rate % 4.52% PV of Terminal Value of Abnormal Earnings AUD'000 50,113
Terminal Value AUD'000 73,067 Current Net Asset Value AUD'000 555,915
Present Value of Terminal Value AUD'000 50,113 Implied Equity Value AUD'000 596,535
Cost of Equity Used % 8.74% Fair Value per Share AUD $ 2.73
Upside % 6.28%
Abnormal Earnings Units 2018 A 2019 A 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E
a) PAT AUD'000 22,371 62,841 36,264 59,483 68,015 69,535 71,088
Expected Earnings
Cost of Equity Assumptions % 8.74% 8.74% 8.74% 8.74% 8.74% 8.74% 8.74%
Shareholders' Book Value (T-1) AUD'000 147,683 152,222 555,915 718,007 741,890 769,322 797,384
b) Less: Expected Earnings AUD'000 (12,909) (13,306) (48,594) (62,763) (64,850) (67,248) (69,701)
c) Abnormal Earnings [a-b] AUD'000 9,462 49,535 (12,330) (3,279) 3,165 2,287 1,387
Discount Factor Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Present Value of Abnormal Earnings AUD'000 (11,824) (2,892) 2,567 1,705 951

20. C A P I T A L
Valuation: SOTP Valuation & Sensitivity Analysis
SOTP Assumptions Units
Tourism EV/FY+1 EBITDA x
7.9x
Tourism FY+1 EBITDA AUD'000 40,795
Implied Enterprise Value AUD'000 320,419
Transit Systems Group FY+1 EV/EBITDA x
8.0x
Transit Systems Group FY+1 EBITDA AUD'000 83,606
Implied Enterprise Value AUD'000 668,849
Total Implied Enterprise Value AUD'000 989,268
Less: Debt AUD'000 (311,297)
Less: Non-controlling Interest AUD'000 -
Add: Cash AUD'000 75,211
Implied Equity Value AUD'000 753,182
Fair Value per Share AUD 3.45
Upside %
34.2%
Sensitivity Analysis (SOTP Valuation)
Transit Systems Group FY+1 EV/EBITDA
$ 3.45 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 9.0x
Tourism EV/FY+1
EBITDA
5.9x 1.93 2.31 2.69 3.08 3.46
6.9x 1.74 2.12 2.51 2.89 3.27
7.9x 1.74 2.12 2.51 2.89 3.27
8.9x 1.93 2.31 2.69 3.08 3.46
9.9x 2.30 2.68 3.07 3.45 3.83
Target Price Sensitivity Analysis (Gordon Growth)
TGR
$ 4.33 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
5.5% 4.50 4.11 4.11 4.50 5.54
6.0% 5.07 4.59 4.59 5.07 6.38
WACC 6.5% 5.07 4.59 4.59 5.07 6.38
7.0% 4.50 4.11 4.11 4.50 5.54
7.5% 3.63 3.35 3.35 3.63 4.33
Target Price Sensitivity Analysis (Exit Multiple)
Exit Multiple
$ 3.06 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x
4.5% 2.58 2.16 2.16 2.58 3.42
5.5% 2.74 2.30 2.30 2.74 3.62
WACC 6.5% 2.74 2.30 2.30 2.74 3.62
7.5% 2.58 2.16 2.16 2.58 3.42
8.5% 2.30 1.91 1.91 2.30 3.06
Sensitivity Analysis (Dividend Discount Model)
TGR
$ 3.99 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5%
7.7% 4.11 3.73 3.73 4.11 5.22
8.2% 4.66 4.17 4.17 4.66 6.17
COE 8.7% 4.66 4.17 4.17 4.66 6.17
9.2% 4.11 3.73 3.73 4.11 5.22
9.7% 3.32 3.08 3.08 3.32 3.99
Sensitivity Analysis (Residual Income Model Valuation)
Growth Rate
$ 2.73 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5%
7.7% 3.65 3.50 3.50 3.65 4.18
8.2% 4.15 3.94 3.94 4.15 4.91
COE 8.7% 4.15 3.94 3.94 4.15 4.91
9.2% 3.65 3.50 3.50 3.65 4.18
9.7% 2.65 2.63 2.63 2.65 2.73

21. C A P I T A L
Accounting Analysis I
Accounting Analysis
Revenue Growth by Segment 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Transit Systems % -49.6% 100.0% 17.1% 7.1% 0.0%
Sealink South Australia & Tasmania (SA) % 3.7% -4.8% 2.7% -30.0% 10.0% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%
Captain Cook Cruises, New South Wales & Western Australia % 34.5% 8.2% -3.3% -30.0% 10.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6%
Sealink Queensland & NT % 11.6% -5.4% -0.8% -20.0% 10.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Sealink Fraser Island (Fraser Island) 369.4% -20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Profitability Metrics 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
EBITDA Margin % 26.4% 26.1% 23.5% 11.1% 12.7% 11.2% 12.2% 12.7% 12.8%
EBIT Margin % 20.5% 19.4% 16.6% 8.1% 9.3% 7.9% 9.0% 9.5% 9.6%
PBT Margin % 19.0% 17.7% 15.0% 7.7% 7.8% 7.4% 8.5% 9.1% 9.2%
PAT Margin % 13.3% 12.3% 10.7% 5.5% 5.7% 5.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8%
Efficiency Metrics 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Return on Equity % 17.2% 16.8% 14.7% 11.3% 5.1% 8.0% 10.4% 11.2% 10.9%
PAT Margin % 13.3% 12.3% 10.7% 5.5% 5.7% 5.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8%
Asset Turnover x 0.68x 0.81x 0.67x 1.01x 0.55x 0.92x 1.03x 1.07x 1.06x
Equity Multiplier x 1.90x 1.67x 2.05x 2.04x 1.62x 1.63x 1.60x 1.56x 1.52x
Return on Assets [NOPAT / TA] % 9.7% 11.0% 7.9% 6.3% 3.7% 5.3% 6.8% 7.5% 7.4%
Returns on Invested Capital [NOPAT / Total Capital] % 12.4% 13.0% 9.5% 8.4% 4.7% 6.8% 8.8% 9.6% 9.5%
Working Capital Ratios 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Receivables Turnover x 11.86x 19.53x 19.03x 12.15x 12.15x 12.15x 12.15x 12.15x 12.15x
Payables Turnover x 18.16x 23.43x 17.52x 14.97x 14.97x 14.97x 14.97x 14.97x 14.97x
Inventory Turnover x 56.20x 59.17x 44.20x 76.83x 76.83x 76.83x 76.83x 76.83x 76.83x
Days Receivables Outstanding Days 30.79 18.69 19.18 30.04 30.04 30.04 30.04 30.04 30.04
Days Payables Outstanding Days 20.10 15.58 20.83 24.38 24.38 24.38 24.38 24.38 24.38
Days Inventory Outstanding Days 6.49 6.17 8.26 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75
Cash Conversion Cycle Days 17.19 9.28 6.61 10.41 10.41 10.41 10.41 10.41 10.41
Operating Cycle Days 37.28 24.86 27.44 34.79 34.79 34.79 34.79 34.79 34.79

22. C A P I T A L
Accounting Analysis II
Short Term Liquidity Ratios 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Current Ratio x 0.57x 0.63x 0.87x 1.31x 2.24x 1.90x 2.00x 2.19x 2.52x
Quick Ratio x 0.45x 0.53x 0.56x 1.13x 0.98x 1.14x 1.17x 1.18x 1.22x
Capitalization Ratios 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Debt to Total Assets x 0.30x 0.28x 0.39x 0.27x 0.18x 0.17x 0.15x 0.14x 0.13x
Debt to Capitalization x 0.38x 0.33x 0.46x 0.37x 0.23x 0.21x 0.20x 0.18x 0.16x
Debt to Equity x 0.57x 0.47x 0.79x 0.56x 0.30x 0.27x 0.24x 0.22x 0.19x
Total Liabilities to Total Assets x 0.47x 0.40x 0.51x 0.51x 0.38x 0.38x 0.37x 0.36x 0.34x
Coverage Ratios 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Debt / EBITDA (Total Debt / EBITDA) x 1.66x 1.31x 2.44x 2.46x 2.61x 1.61x 1.21x 1.02x 0.94x
Debt / EBIT (Total Debt / EBIT) x 2.14x 1.76x 3.46x 3.35x 3.58x 2.27x 1.64x 1.37x 1.25x
EBITDA / Gross Interest Expense x 17.20x 15.10x 14.89x 25.69x 8.74x 19.52x 25.87x 30.55x 33.05x
EBIT / Gross Interest Expense x 13.35x 11.21x 10.53x 18.85x 6.37x 13.84x 19.03x 22.83x 24.74x
Supporting Calculations 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Capitalization [Debt + Shareholders Equity] AUD'000 205,052 208,815 260,759 852,694 919,007 932,840 955,673 983,192 1,011,811
Total Debt AUD'000 77,596 68,920 120,226 311,297 212,447 200,435 188,216 176,025 163,716
Interest Expense AUD'000 2,717 3,486 3,304 4,933 9,314 6,373 6,013 5,646 5,281
Interest Expense as a % of Borrowings % 3.5% 5.1% 2.7% 1.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Interest Income as a % of Beginnning Cash Balance % 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Net Operating Profits after Taxes (NOPAT) AUD'000 25,358 27,133 24,698 71,610 42,966 63,824 84,576 94,753 96,009
Total Capital Expenditure AUD'000 6,829 6,078 12,995 5,040 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000
Changes in Net Working Capital AUD'000 (1,838) 3,079 1,287 (31,171) 16,312 (15,162) (5,235) (2,696) (286)
Free Cash Flow to Firm AUD'000 27,138 37,683 27,408 54,112 25,682 19,769 52,072 65,623 69,378
Tax Rate % 30.1% 30.6% 29.0% 23.0% 27.6% 27.6% 26.1% 26.5% 26.5%
Accounting Analysis

23. C A P I T A L
SeaLink Operating Model (Income Statement)
Income Statement 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Transit Systems AUD'000 - - - 895,000 451,330 902,660 902,660 902,660 902,660
SA AUD'000 65,114 67,496 64,234 65,970 46,179 50,797 52,880 54,995 57,140
CCC AUD'000 37,962 51,052 55,213 53,375 37,363 41,099 43,071 45,096 47,170
QLD AUD'000 74,293 82,877 78,435 77,833 62,266 68,493 70,411 72,382 74,409
KBR AUD'000 - - 11,527 54,106 43,285 47,613 49,994 52,494 55,118
Other AUD'000 (113) (61) - 37 - - - - -
Revenue AUD'000 177,256 201,364 209,409 1,146,321 640,423 1,110,662 1,119,016 1,127,627 1,136,497
Opex (excl. D&A) AUD'000 (130,533) (148,745) (160,217) (1,014,479) (558,980) (986,261) (982,879) (989,531) (996,391)
EBITDA AUD'000 46,723 52,619 49,192 126,710 81,442 124,401 136,136 138,095 140,106
Depreciation & Amortisation AUD'000 (10,447) (13,549) (14,418) (34,713) (22,116) (36,224) (36,474) (36,732) (36,999)
Operating Income AUD'000 36,276 39,070 34,774 93,000 59,326 88,177 99,662 101,363 103,107
Interest income AUD'000 203 43 27 38 60 376 341 398 459
Finance costs AUD'000 (2,717) (3,486) (3,304) (4,933) (9,314) (6,373) (6,013) (5,646) (5,281)
Profit before tax AUD'000 33,762 35,627 31,498 88,105 50,072 82,180 93,990 96,114 98,286
Income tax expense AUD'000 (10,162) (10,885) (9,127) (20,264) (13,808) (22,696) (25,975) (26,579) (27,198)
Profit, net of tax AUD'000 23,600 24,742 22,371 62,841 36,264 59,483 68,015 69,535 71,088
Other comprehensive (loss) income:
Items that may be reclassified subsequently to profit or loss:
Net (loss) / gain on cash flow hedge (interest rate swap) AUD'000 (1,070) 607 (724) (2,588) - - - - -
Deferred Tax AUD'000 321 (182) 217 776 - - - - -
Net other comprehensive loss to be reclassified to Profit and Loss in subsequent financial periods (749) 425 (507) (1,812) - - - - -
Total comprehensive income AUD'000 21,600 24,257 19,058 19,731 36,264 59,483 68,015 69,535 71,088
Basic, profit for the year attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent 0.24 0.24 0.19 0.21 0.17 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.33
Diluted, profit for the year attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent 0.23 0.24 0.19 0.21 0.17 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.33

24. C A P I T A L
SeaLink Operating Model (Balance Sheet)
Balance Sheet 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
ASSETS
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment AUD'000 175,037 170,787 210,101 399,396 432,992 461,885 490,695 519,419 548,054
Intangible assets AUD'000 47,748 46,188 55,327 580,383 567,575 545,361 522,981 500,428 477,699
Deferred tax assets AUD'000 4,693 3,894 4,539 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936
Right of use assets AUD'000 8,220 7,788 14,963 16,155 11,615 8,711 5,807 2,904 -
Total non-current assets AUD'000 235,698 228,657 284,930 1,001,870 1,018,117 1,021,894 1,025,419 1,028,687 1,031,688
Current assets
Inventories AUD'000 3,154 3,403 4,738 14,921 8,336 14,457 14,566 14,678 14,793
Trade and other receivables AUD'000 14,951 10,310 11,004 94,355 52,714 91,420 92,107 92,816 93,546
Prepayments AUD'000 1,810 1,958 2,000 4,263 2,382 4,130 4,161 4,193 4,226
Cash and cash equivalents AUD'000 5,208 2,923 3,242 11,904 75,211 68,143 79,561 91,887 105,037
Current tax asset AUD'000 - - 6,334 5,684 5,684 5,684 5,684 5,684 5,684
Total current assets AUD'000 25,123 18,594 27,318 131,127 144,327 183,834 196,080 209,258 223,287
Total assets AUD'000 260,821 247,251 312,248 1,132,997 1,162,444 1,205,728 1,221,499 1,237,945 1,254,975
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity
Share capital AUD'000 95,557 95,557 95,557 96,057 243,644 243,644 243,644 243,644 243,644
Retained earnings AUD'000 42,234 53,533 59,631 471,452 485,958 509,751 536,957 564,771 593,206
Reserves AUD'000 (230) 322 (36) (6,510) (6,510) (6,510) (6,510) (6,510) (6,510)
Capital lease plug AUD'000 (606) (1,729) (2,930) (5,085) (5,085) (4,995) (4,769) (4,521) (4,210)
Total equity AUD'000 136,955 147,683 152,222 555,915 718,007 741,890 769,322 797,384 826,131
570,420
Non-current liabilities
Deferred tax liabilities AUD'000 5,514 4,140 9,293 9,132 9,132 9,132 9,132 9,132 9,132
Other financial liabilities, non-current AUD'000 840 340 1,050 2,832 2,832 2,832 2,832 2,832 2,832
Lease Obligations, non-current AUD'000 5,823 5,665 8,603 11,447 9,485 6,813 3,692 - -
Provisions AUD'000 989 1,017 1,649 70,813 70,813 70,813 70,813 70,813 70,813
Contract and other liabilities AUD'000 1,149 977 805 776 776 776 776 776 776
Interest bearing loans and borrowings AUD'000 65,233 58,072 107,187 295,957 201,000 190,950 181,403 172,332 163,716
Other liabilities AUD'000 86,000 86,000 86,000 86,000 86,000 86,000
Total non-current liabilities AUD'000 79,548 70,211 128,587 476,957 380,038 367,316 354,648 341,885 333,269
Current liabilities
Current tax liabilities AUD'000 14,264 2,020 - - - - - - -
Trade and other payables AUD'000 9,759 8,594 11,952 76,578 42,782 74,196 74,754 75,329 75,922
Other financial liabilities, current AUD'000 230 123 137 943 943 943 943 943 943
Lease Obligations, current AUD'000 3,676 2,123 3,085 3,071 1,962 2,671 3,121 3,692 -
Contract and other liabilities AUD'000 5,000 5,487 5,314 7,684 7,684 7,684 7,684 7,684 7,684
Interest bearing loans and borrowings AUD'000 2,864 3,060 1,350 822 - - - - -
Provisions AUD'000 8,525 7,950 9,600 11,027 11,027 11,027 11,027 11,027 11,027
Total current liabilities AUD'000 44,318 29,357 31,438 100,125 64,399 96,521 97,529 98,675 95,576
Total liabilities AUD'000 123,866 99,568 160,026 577,082 444,436 463,838 452,177 440,561 428,844
Total equity and liabilities AUD'000 260,821 247,251 312,248 1,132,997 1,162,444 1,205,728 1,221,499 1,237,945 1,254,975

25. C A P I T A L
SeaLink Operating Model (Cash Flow Statement)
Cash Flow Statement 2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Cash flows from operating activities
Profit before tax AUD'000 31,972 34,317 27,547 24,950 50,072 82,180 93,990 96,114 98,286
Adjustments for:
Depreciation of plant and equipment AUD'000 10,447 13,549 14,418 18,713 6,404 11,107 11,190 11,276 11,365
Amortisation of intangible assets AUD'000 965 1,560 1,560 1,944 12,808 22,213 22,380 22,553 22,730
Interest income AUD'000 (203) (43) (27) (38) (60) (376) (341) (398) (459)
Interest expense AUD'000 2,470 3,239 3,070 4,582 9,314 6,373 6,013 5,646 5,281
(Gain)/Loss from sale of assets AUD'000 - - - 1,637 - - - - -
(Gain)/Loss on sale of investments AUD'000 - - (100) - - - - -
Other operating activities AUD'000 (952) (3,320) (932) - - - - -
Operating cash flows before changes in working capital AUD'000 44,699 49,302 45,536 51,788 78,539 121,497 133,233 135,192 137,202
Trade and other receivables AUD'000 (939) 4,641 (694) (83,351) 41,641 (38,706) (688) (709) (730)
Prepayments AUD'000 (100) (148) (42) (2,263) 1,881 (1,749) (31) (32) (33)
Inventories AUD'000 (237) (249) (1,335) (10,183) 6,585 (6,121) (109) (112) (115)
Trade and other payables AUD'000 (562) (1,165) 3,358 64,626 (33,796) 31,414 558 575 593
Net cash flows from operations AUD'000 41,217 50,737 45,265 20,617 94,851 106,335 132,963 134,914 136,916
Income taxes paid AUD'000 (8,158) (23,485) (15,127) (3,539) (13,808) (22,696) (25,975) (26,579) (27,198)
Net cash flows from operating activities AUD'000 33,059 27,252 30,138 17,078 81,042 83,639 106,989 108,335 109,718
Cash flows from investing activities
Acquisition of subsidiaries (net of cash acquired) AUD'000 (115,273) - (44,728) - - - - - -
Proceeds from disposal of plant and equipment AUD'000 26 389 659 12,605 - - - - -
Purchase of plant and equipment AUD'000 (6,855) (6,467) (13,654) (17,645) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000)
Investment in unlisted entity AUD'000 - - (3,274) - - - - - -
Net cash flows used in investing activities AUD'000 (122,102) (6,078) (60,997) (5,040) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000)
Cash flows from financing activities
Proceeds from issue of shares AUD'000 50,299 - - 147,587 - - - -
Dividends paid to equity owners AUD'000 (7,624) (13,654) (14,667) (14,685) (21,758) (35,690) (40,809) (41,721) (42,653)
New borrowings AUD'000 50,280 (8,244) 47,405 (12,758) (95,779) (10,050) (9,548) (9,070) (8,617)
Finance Lease Repayment AUD'000 (2,397) (2,397) (2,123) (3,085) (3,071) (1,962) (2,671) (3,121) (3,692)
Other financing activities AUD'000 (4,810) (3,004) (2,542) (2,097) (1,607)
Net cash flows (used in) from financing activities AUD'000 90,558 (24,295) 30,615 (30,528) 22,169 (50,707) (55,570) (56,009) (56,568)
Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents AUD'000 1,515 (3,121) (244) (18,491) 63,211 (7,068) 11,418 12,326 13,150
Cash and cash equivalents, statement of cash flows, beginning balance AUD'000 9,884 11,399 8,277 8,033 12,000 75,211 68,143 79,561 91,887
Cash and cash equivalents, statement of cash flows, ending balance AUD'000 11,399 8,277 8,033 12,000 75,211 68,143 79,561 91,887 105,037
Credit Revolver
Minimum Cash Balance AUD'000 8,033 8,033 8,033 8,033 8,033
Surplus (Deficit) Cash before RCF AUD'000 67,178 60,110 71,528 83,854 97,004
Add: Revolving Credit Facility AUD'000 - - - - -
Less: Principal Repayment AUD'000 - - - - -
Ending Cash Balance after Credit Revolver Changes AUD'000 75,211 68,143 79,561 91,887 105,037

26. C A P I T A L
Scenario Analysis: Base Case
Base Case 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue Assumptions
SeaLink
Sealink South Australia & Tasmania (SA) AUD'000 3.7% -4.8% 2.7% -30.0% 10.0% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%
Captain Cook Cruises, New South Wales & Western Australia (CCC) AUD'000 34.5% 8.2% -3.3% -30.0% 10.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6%
Sealink Queensland & NT (QLD) AUD'000 11.6% -5.4% -0.8% -20.0% 10.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Sealink Fraser Island (Fraser Island) AUD'000 5.5% 5.8% -20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Transit Systems
Contracted Revenue AUD'000 624,000 642,000 895,000 451,330 902,660 902,660 902,660 902,660
Australia (excl. R6 & Sita Group) AUD'000 267,000 287,000 358,000 465,580 465,580 465,580 465,580 465,580
Region 6 AUD'000 - - 185,000 181,076 181,076 181,076 181,076 181,076
Sita Group AUD'000 41,000 44,000 44,000 38,356 38,356 38,356 38,356 38,356
Singapore AUD'000 121,000 127,000 137,000 125,772 125,772 125,772 125,772 125,772
UK AUD'000 195,000 184,000 171,000 91,876 91,876 91,876 91,876 91,876
Tender pipeline
Australia AUD'000 240,000 200,000 950,000
Singapore AUD'000 200,000
US AUD'000 129,000 418,000 119,000
UK AUD'000 205,000
New Contracted Revenue from tender pipeline AUD'000 - - - -
Australia AUD'000 - - - -
Singapore AUD'000 - - - -
US AUD'000 - - - -
UK AUD'000 - - - -
Total Revenue
Transit Systems AUD'000 451,330 902,660 902,660 902,660 902,660
EBITDA Assumptions
SeaLink
EBITDA Margin
SA AUD'000 24.5% 26.8% 28.7% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3%
CCC AUD'000 9.8% 11.4% 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
QLD AUD'000 34.8% 34.6% 36.5% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
KBR AUD'000 NM 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6%
EBITDA
SA AUD'000 15,929 18,107 18,453 17,358 12,150 13,366 13,914 14,470 15,034
CCC AUD'000 3,719 5,843 2,694 580 406 447 10,768 11,274 11,793
QLD AUD'000 25,858 28,702 28,613 24,922 19,938 21,931 22,545 23,177 23,826
KBR AUD'000 5,740 4,592 5,051 5,304 5,569 5,847
Transit Systems
EBITDA Margin
Australia % 10% 5% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Region 6 % 4% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Australia (excl. R6) % 13% 6% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Singapore & UK % 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%
US % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
EBITDA AUD'000 64,601 69,220 78,110 44,357 83,606 83,606 83,606 83,606
Australia (excl. R6 & Sita Group) AUD'000 38,381 43,050 44,750 27,935 58,198 58,198 58,198 58,198
Region 6 AUD'000 - - 7,400 3,622 6,338 6,338 6,338 6,338
Sita Group AUD'000 4,100 4,400 4,400 1,918 3,836 3,836 3,836 3,836
Singapore AUD'000 8,470 8,890 9,590 6,289 8,804 8,804 8,804 8,804
UK AUD'000 13,650 12,880 11,970 4,594 6,431 6,431 6,431 6,431
US AUD'000 - - - -

27. C A P I T A L
Scenario Analysis: Bull Case
Bull Case 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue Assumptions
SeaLink
Sealink South Australia & Tasmania (SA) AUD'000 3.7% -4.8% 2.7% -30.0% 20.0% 6.1% 6.0% 4.0%
Captain Cook Cruises, New South Wales & Western Australia AUD'000 34.5% 8.2% -3.3% -30.0% 20.0% 6.8% 6.7% 6.6%
Sealink Queensland & NT AUD'000 11.6% -5.4% -0.8% -20.0% 10.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Sealink Fraser Island (Fraser Island) AUD'000 5.5% 5.8% -20.0% 10.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Transit Systems
Contracted Revenue AUD'000 624,000 642,000 895,000 451,330 902,660 902,660 902,660 902,660
Australia (excl. R6 & Sita Group) AUD'000 267,000 287,000 358,000 465,580 465,580 465,580 465,580 465,580
Region 6 AUD'000 - - 185,000 181,076 181,076 181,076 181,076 181,076
Sita Group AUD'000 41,000 44,000 44,000 38,356 38,356 38,356 38,356 38,356
Singapore AUD'000 121,000 127,000 137,000 125,772 125,772 125,772 125,772 125,772
UK AUD'000 195,000 184,000 171,000 91,876 91,876 91,876 91,876 91,876
Tender pipeline
Australia AUD'000 240,000 200,000 950,000
Singapore AUD'000 200,000
US AUD'000 129,000 418,000 119,000
UK AUD'000 205,000
New Contracted Revenue from tender pipeline AUD'000 - - - -
Australia AUD'000
Singapore AUD'000
US AUD'000
UK AUD'000
Total Revenue
Transit Systems AUD'000 451,330 902,660 902,660 902,660 902,660
EBITDA Assumptions
SeaLink
EBITDA Margin
SA AUD'000 24.5% 26.8% 28.7% 27.6% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3%
CCC AUD'000 9.8% 11.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
QLD AUD'000 34.8% 34.6% 36.5% 33.4% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
KBR AUD'000 NM 11.9% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6%
EBITDA
SA AUD'000 15,929 18,106 18,453 18,238 12,150 13,366 13,914 14,470 15,034
CCC AUD'000 3,719 5,843 2,694 1,292 406 447 10,768 11,274 11,793
QLD AUD'000 25,858 28,702 28,613 25,960 19,938 21,931 22,545 23,177 23,826
KBR AUD'000 6,462 4,592 5,051 5,304 5,569 5,847
Transcript System
EBITDA Margin
Australia % 10% 5% 12% 12% 12% 12%
Region 6 % 4% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Australia (excl. R6) % 13% 6% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Singapore & UK % 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%
US % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
EBITDA AUD'000 64,601 69,220 78,110 44,357 96,918 96,918 96,918 96,918
Australia (excl. R6 & Sita Group) AUD'000 38,381 43,050 44,750 27,935 69,837 69,837 69,837 69,837
Region 6 AUD'000 - - 7,400 3,622 7,243 7,243 7,243 7,243
Sita Group AUD'000 4,100 4,400 4,400 1,918 4,603 4,603 4,603 4,603
Singapore AUD'000 8,470 8,890 9,590 6,289 8,804 8,804 8,804 8,804
UK AUD'000 13,650 12,880 11,970 4,594 6,431 6,431 6,431 6,431
US AUD'000 - - - -

28. C A P I T A L
Scenario Analysis: Bear Case
Bear Case 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue Assumptions
SeaLink
Sealink South Australia & Tasmania (SA) AUD'000 3.7% -4.8% 2.7% -30.0% -10.0% 20.0% 4.0% 3.9%
Captain Cook Cruises, New South Wales & Western Australia AUD'000 34.5% 8.2% -3.3% -30.0% -15.0% 25.0% 4.7% 4.6%
Sealink Queensland & NT AUD'000 11.6% -5.4% -0.8% -20.0% -5.0% 10.0% 2.8% 2.8%
Sealink Fraser Island (Fraser Island) AUD'000 5.5% 5.8% -20.0% -5.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Transit Systems
Contracted Revenue AUD'000 624,000 642,000 895,000 451,330 867,874 849,499 723,727 723,727
Australia (excl. R6 & Sita Group) AUD'000 267,000 287,000 358,000 465,580 442,301 442,301 442,301 442,301
Region 6 AUD'000 - - 185,000 181,076 181,076 181,076 181,076 181,076
Sita Group AUD'000 41,000 44,000 44,000 38,356 26,849 26,849 26,849 26,849
Singapore AUD'000 121,000 127,000 137,000 125,772 125,772 125,772 - -
UK AUD'000 195,000 184,000 171,000 91,876 91,876 73,501 73,501 73,501
Tender pipeline
Australia AUD'000 240,000 200,000 950,000
Singapore AUD'000 200,000
US AUD'000 129,000 418,000 119,000
UK AUD'000 205,000
New Contracted Revenue from tender pipeline AUD'000 - - - -
Australia AUD'000 -
Singapore AUD'000 - - - -
US AUD'000 - - - -
UK AUD'000 - - - -
Total Revenue
Transit Systems AUD'000 451,330 867,874 849,499 723,727 723,727
EBITDA Assumptions
SeaLink
EBITDA Margin
SA AUD'000 24.5% 26.8% 28.7% 27.6% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9%
CCC AUD'000 9.8% 11.4% 4.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
QLD AUD'000 34.8% 34.6% 36.5% 33.4% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
KBR AUD'000 NM 11.9% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%
EBITDA
SA AUD'000 15,929 18,106 18,453 18,238 11,490 12,639 13,157 13,683 14,217
CCC AUD'000 3,719 5,843 2,694 1,292 814 896 939 983 1,028
QLD AUD'000 25,858 28,702 28,613 25,960 18,691 20,561 21,136 21,728 22,336
KBR AUD'000 6,462 4,652 5,118 5,373 5,642 5,924
Transport Transcript
EBITDA Margin
Australia % 10% 5% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Region 6 % 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 4%
Australia (excl. R6) % 13% 6% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Singapore & UK % 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%
US % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
EBITDA AUD'000 64,601 69,220 78,110 44,357 65,503 67,839 59,035 59,035
Australia (excl. R6 & Sita Group) AUD'000 38,381 43,050 44,750 27,935 44,230 44,230 44,230 44,230
Region 6 AUD'000 - - 7,400 3,622 3,622 7,243 7,243 7,243
Sita Group AUD'000 4,100 4,400 4,400 1,918 2,416 2,416 2,416 2,416
Singapore AUD'000 8,470 8,890 9,590 6,289 8,804 8,804 - -
UK AUD'000 13,650 12,880 11,970 4,594 6,431 5,145 5,145 5,145
US AUD'000 - - - -

29. C A P I T A L
SeaLink’s Global Contract Portfolio & Tender Pipeline
Overview of Transit Systems Group's Global Contract Portfolio
Route Location Country Contract first held Renewals
% of pro forma FY19A
revenue
Contracted revenue p.a.
(A$ m)
Contract delivered
(years) Remaining
Government extension option
(years)
Midland (Perth) WA Australia Jan-96 üü 1.7% 15.2 24.0 5.0
Canning (Perth) WA Australia Sep-96 ü 4.2% 37.5 23.0 0.5
Southern River (Perth) WA Australia Sep-96 ü 2.1% 18.7 23.0 0.5
East West (Adelaide) SA Australia Apr-00 üü 7.6% 67.8 19.0 8.5 2.0
Claremont (Perth)4 WA Australia Sep-02 üüü 2.0% 17.8 18.0 10.5
Marmion (Perth)4 WA Australia May-11 ü 4.4% 39.2 8.0 10.5
DoE Special Schools VIC Australia Jun-11 0.3% 2.7 8.0 0.5
25 / N25 London United Kingdom Jun-13 ü 3.4% 30.3 6.0 0.5
23 / N23 London United Kingdom Jun-13 ü 1.6% 14.3 6.0 1.0
328 London United Kingdom Jun-13 ü 1.3% 11.6 6.0 2.0
28 / N28 London United Kingdom Jun-13 ü 1.2% 10.7 6.0 2.0
W15 London United Kingdom Jun-13 ü 1.1% 9.8 6.0 3.0 2.0
SMBSC Region 3 (Sydney) NSW Australia Oct-13 7.3% 65.1 5.5 2.5 1.0
Darwin NT Australia Oct-14 1.0% 8.9 5.0 2.0
Busselton WA Australia Jan-15 0.3% 2.7 5.0 5.0
Bunbury WA Australia Jan-15 0.5% 4.5 5.0 5.0
Bulim Singapore Singapore May-15 14.1% 125.8 4.5 2.0
Westbourne College VIC Australia Jun-16 0.2% 1.8 3.0 4.0
13 / N13 London United Kingdom Apr-17 1.7% 15.2 2.5 3.0
Albany WA Australia Jul-17 0.2% 1.8 2.0 8.0
NS & Outer NE (Adelaide) SA Australia Jul-18 ü 7.8% 69.6 1.0 8.5 2.0
SMBSC Region 6 (Sydney) NSW Australia Jul-18 20.3% 181.1 1.0 4.0 3.0
Public Transport Victoria VIC Australia Jul-18 3.8% 33.9 1.0 7.0 2.0
Outer North (Adelaide) SA Australia Mar-20 33.9 0.0 8.0 2.0
Joondalup (Perth) WA Australia Nov-19 82.9 0.0 10
Tender Pipeline (A$ million)
Contract Location Start date
Approx. revenue p.a. (A$
million)
Contract 1 NSW, Australia 2022 500
Contract 2 VIC, Australia 2020 240
Contract 3 London, UK 2020-21 205
Contract 4 NSW, Australia 2021 200
Contract 5 Las Vegas, US 2021 162
Contract 6 NSW, Australia 2022 150
Contract 7 NSW, Australia 2022 150
Contract 8 NSW, Australia 2022 150
Contract 9 Denver, US 2021 148
Contract 10 Phoenix, US 2020 129
Contract 11 Tempe / Phoenix, US 2023 119
Contract 12 West Covina, US 2021 108
Contract 13 Singapore 2021 100
Contract 14 Singapore 2021 100
Total 2,461
Other Australia 705
Other rest of world 395
Tender Pipeline (A$ million) 3,561