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Miami University 2016 Cleveland Research Company Stock Pitch Competition Winner
1. Cleveland Research Company Stock Pitch Competition | 2016
OrbitalATK, Inc.
Andrew Ames | Dan Ames | Michael Loffredo | Natalie Quintero
âThe PartnerYou Can Count Onâ
3. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
$60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00
52-Week Trading Range
Bear Case - Segmented DCF
Comparables - EV/EBITDA
Comparables - P/E
Base Case - Segmented DCF
Traditional DCF
Bull Case - Segmented DCF
InvestmentThesis
International
Military
Spending
Ramp-up in
Aircraft
Orders and
Deliveries
Innovation
in Space
Systems
Effective Use
of Capital
and FCF
v Strength in airlinerswill driveordersand backlogs
abovecurrent record levels
v Deterioration in averagelifeof wide-bodyplanes
presents opportunity forOrbital ATK to expand
within thishigh-margin vertical
v Strategic R&D hasled to revolutionaryconceptsthat
were unobtainablejust a few yearsago
v Execution of innovativecontractswith inaugural
customerswill lead to ancillary contracts
v Combined entitiesof Orbital Sciencesand ATKenable
capacity for further leverageto return capital to
shareholders
v Commencement of key contractsallowsforfavorable
working capitalconditions
v Unrest in theMiddleEast and Southeast Asia hasled to
largedefensebudget increasesby many countriesin
these regions
v Orbital ATK iswell positioned to takeadvantage
through thepresenceof internationaloffices
Valuation Range
Recommendation
v We recommend OrbitalATK as a Buy with a 12
month price target of $110.00, which
represents an upside of 27.1% from the current
share price of $86.56
3
Sources: Team Projections
4. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
AppendixGrowth Opportunities
& Drivers
Company Overview
Company Description CY 2015 Revenue End-Markets
Key Statistics Stock Performance
v Orbital ATK, Incorporated is an aerospace and defense
systems company and supplier of related products to the
U.S. Government,allied nations, and other customers
v Orbital ATK maintains 18 domestic facilities in 8 states
totaling over 17 million square feet
Ă Employs more than 12,000 people
v Based in Dulles,VA
v NYSE Listed â OA
Market Data Value
Current Price $86.56 EV/EBITDA 10.1x
Market Cap. 5,076.0M EV/Sales 1.5x
Annual Dividend $1.20 Price/Book 2.6x
Dividend Yield 1.34% Price/Earnings 17.3x
FCF per Basic Share $6.90 PEG 1.2x
Operations Capital Structure
Revenue 4,517.4M Debt 1,481M
EBITDA Margin 14.5% Cash & Equivalents 104M
Operating Margin 12.1% Quick Ratio 2.0x
Profit Margin 6.8% Current Ratio 2.2x
49%
21%
30%
National Security
NASA/Civil Government
Commercial/International
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
2/10/2015 5/10/2015 8/10/2015 11/10/2015 2/10/2016
Millions
4
Sources: Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Company 10-K
5. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
33%
41%
26%
Flight Systems Group
Defense Systems Group
Space Systems Group
Operations
Flight Systems By the Numbers
Defense Systems
CY 2015 Revenue Breakdown
v Orbital ATK focuses on Launch Systems and Propulsion
Systems for government and commercial use
Ă Main supplier for the International Space Station
v Provides Aerospace Structures for commercial customers
such as Boeing and Airbus
v Delivers small, medium, and large-caliber ammunition
through its Armaments and Small Caliber Systems
Ă Largest producer of small-caliber ammo in the U.S.
v Strong relationship with the U.S.Army through its
Defense Electronic and Missile Products
Space Systems
v Manufactures and prepares Commercial and Government
Satellites for launch into orbit
v Is a market-leading supplier of SpaceComponents and
provides a full spectrum of Technical Services to NASA
and other government agencies
$4.5B in
Revenue
Operational Activities
Rocket Propulsion Systems
Satellites & Other Subsystems
Missile Defense Interceptors and Target Systems
Medium-Caliber Gun Systems
Small Research Rockets & Scientific Balloons
Small & Medium Caliber Ammunition
Figures
Over 16,000 Motors
More than 1,000
More than 300
15,000 units installed
30 missions/year
8 Billion since2011
5
Sources: Company 10-K
6. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Orbital ATK Merger
Transaction Details Synergy Execution
v Createda leader inAerospace & Defense with an
enterprise value >$5 billion
v Deal closed in February 2015
Ă ATK paid 0.449 shares for every 1 share of Orbital
Ă ATK spun off its Sports Group business to its
shareholders viaVistaOutdoors
v Cash raised fromVista spin-off and additional debt
issuance was used to repurchase shares at an accelerated
rate and to internally invest in R&D
v Cost reductions and an expanded geographic presence
resulting from the merger continue to benefit Orbital
ATK and its customers
Ă New product offerings broaden customer relationships
Ă Larger size allows for SG&A reductions and more
efficient operations
Ă Orbital ATK can leverage its size and compete for
larger contracts
v Orbital exceeded its synergy projections in 2015
Ă Sees an additional 10% in revenue/cost synergies
46.2% 53.8%
100%
6
Sources: Merger S-4, Company Earnings Call
7. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Industry Overview
The aerospace and
defense industry is
mainly consolidated
amongst the top four
companies, together
holding over 55% of
total market share
Stable growth in global
GDP, lower commodity
prices, and the
resurgence of global
security threats will
drive revenues moving
forward
($inbillions)
Orbital ATK can succeed
in a low-growth
environment by
concentrating on high-
margin revenue segments
while gaining market
share
Orbital ATK is a niche
player within the
industry,concentrating
more on ammunition,
flight systems,and
propulsion systems
0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000
Orbital ATK
BAE Systems
General Dynamics
Lockheed Martin
United Technology
Airbus Group
The Boeing Company
2015 Revenue Dispersion
($ in millions)
600
650
700
750
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Aerospace and Defense Industry Growth
7
Sources: Deloitte, IBIS World, PwC
8. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Industry Segments
v Produces precision weapons and
ammunition
Ă Recent developments allow for Global
Positioning System-guidedweapons
Ă Ammunitions are sold to defense
departments and recreational
customers
v Small arms ammunition commands
nearly two thirds of the total
ammunition market
Defense &Ammunitions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
($inmillions)
U.S.Ammunition Sales
v Includes research and development
of space vehicles and missiles
Ă Propulsion unit and component
manufacturing
Ă Assembles guided missiles and
space vehicles
v Provides customers with aircraft
engines, engine parts, and
auxiliary equipment
Flight Systems
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
(RPKintrillions)
Aircrafts
Aircraft Deliveries World Annual Traffic
*RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometer1
Commercial Aircraft Metrics
Space Systems
v Manufactures commercial,
scientific, and security satellites
v Supplies subsystems that provide
power,propulsion, and support
for satellites
Ă Includes spacecraft panels,
deployable structural systems,
solar arrays, and propulsion
tanks
60%
21%
5%
7%
7%
Commercial Transportation
Services (79)
Other Commercially
Launched Satellites (28)
Technology Test and
Demonstration (6)
Commercial
Telecommunications (9)
Commercial Remote
Sensing (9)
Proj. NGSO2 Launches by Payload
8
Sources: IBIS World, FAA, Boeing, Company 10-K
9. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Competitor Profile
Competitor Overview SpaceX / United Launch Alliance
Breadth of Competition SpaceVehicle& Missile Manufacturing
v Orbital ATK operates in a wide variety of sub-industries
with few direct competitors
Ă No single company competes with all three of Orbitalâs
segments
v Many competitors have significantly more resources to
deploy when competing for government contracts
v SpaceX:Aims to be the low-cost provider of LEOâs3
Ă Private valuation of $12 billion
Ă Increasing the amount of reusable parts on the rocket
leads to larger payload penalties4
v United Launch Alliance: Joint venture between
Lockheed Martin and Boeing
Ă Aerojet placed a $2.2 billion unsolicited bid in
September 2015
Ă Facing pressure to lower launch costs
32%
24%
11%
8%
6%
19%
Lockheed Martin
Raytheon
Boeing
Orbital ATK
Aerojet Rocketdyne
Other
9
Sources: IBIS World, WSJ, Bloomberg
10. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
U.S. World ex. U.S.
Conflicts AroundTheWorld
Military Spending Foreign Boom
OrbitalATK Foreign Sales PositioningAbroad
v International demand for defense and military products
is increasing as nations deal with uncertainties brought
on by regional tensions
Ă Includes Middle East, East Asia, and Eastern Europe
v Non-NATO countries are expected to grow their
defense budgets by upwards of 5% this year
Ă Largest growth is expected tobe in Southeast Asia at
7.5%
v Orbital ATK has used its post-merger structure to
compete for foreign military contracts
Ă Has opened facilities inSingapore, UnitedArab
Emirates, and Saudi Arabia in the last 12 months
Ă Closer geographic representation
v Around 20% of sales are to international customers,
including government and commercial entities
0
300
600
900
2013 2014 2015 2015*
($inmillions)
Defense Systems Space Systems Flight Systems
* 9 months ended 12/31/15
($inbillions)
10
Sources: SIPRI, IBIS World, Company 10-K
11. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Flight Systems Lift-Off
AirplaneTurnover Younger Retirement
DeliveriesTake Off Orbital Contracts Begin Delivery
v A growing number of wide-body airplanes are reaching
the age of retirement
Ă Orbital is presented withthe opportunity toprovide
newer, more efficient aircrafts tofill the demand
v Moving forward, the average retirementage of wide-
body airplanes is expected to decrease,further securing
Orbitalâs position
v Boeing and Airbus are increasing annual deliveries of
their wide-body airplanes over the next fewyears
Ă Orbital will benefit as a main supplier of composite
structures for these airplanes
v As of 2015, cumulative orders for the 787-9 and 787-10
have soared to over 700 airplanes
v Orbital has partnered with Rolls Royce, further
cementing relationships with major airplane component
suppliers
0
40
80
120
160
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
Airplanes
Boeing 787-9 Airbus A350 XWB Boeing 787-10
20
22
24
26
28
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Age
Airplanes
WBs Reaching 25 Years Average WB Retirement Age
11
Sources: Boeing, Airbus, Company 10-K, Avolon
12. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
222
385
27
197
34
7
Investments & Innovations
Antares Upgrade Satellite Servicing
Geosynchronous Satellites
v The Antaresâ5 engines have been replaced with RD-181s,
which will allow for improved payload performance and
reliability
Ă Rocket is expected to return to space in mid-2016
v Orbital ATK has entered into contracts with NASA to
provide Commercial Resupply Services to the
International Space Station
Ă NASA awarded Orbital a minimum of six additional
missions through CRS-26
, which involves servicing the
ISS into the early 2020s
v Contract with Intelsat SA allows Orbital ATK to
service off-path geosynchronous7
orbiting satellites
Ă These servicing vehicles grapple fuel-depleted
communication satellites, placing them back into orbit
v Longer operational capabilities of Intelsatâs satellites
extends their revenue streams
In Orbit Satellites vs. Out of Orbit
Total Satellites vs. Intelsat Satellites
Intelsat Satellitesin Orbit vs. Out of Orbit As of Nov.2015, there were
419 geosynchronous
satellites in space. Dozens of
these telecommunications
satellites continue to run low
on fuel each year, drifting off
orbit.
12
Sources: FAA, Company 10-K, Company Earnings Call
13. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Capital Usage
Leverage Return of Capital
Free Cash Flow Debt Levels
v Orbital plans to undergo aâvigorous programâ of
capital return over the next 3-5 years
Ă Will be mainly facilitatedby share repurchases and
dividends
Ă Since recent sell-off, purchasing own stock at 15.5x
forward earnings is an effective use of cash
v Long-term commitment of returning 60-70% of free
cash flow back to shareholders
v Orbital recently issued $500 million in senior notes for
âgeneral corporate purposesâ
Ă Primarily used to fund share repurchases
Ă The combined entity of Orbital and ATK produces solid
cash flows that can support a higher leverage ratio
v Management will be cautious to issue more debt
moving forward
Ă Keen on keeping BB+ credit rating
2015* 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
* Nine months ended 12/31/15
0
75
150
225
300
375
450
($inmillions)
Free Cash Flow Share Repurchases Dividends Paid
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
FY 2014 FY 2015 CY 2015 CY
2016E
CY
2017E
CY
2018E
CY
2019E
CY
2020E
($inmillions)
Debt/EBITDA Debt
13
Sources: Team Projections, Bloomberg, Company Earnings Call
14. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Backlog and Margin Expansion
Margin Expansion Revenue vs. Backlog Breakdown
Contract Structure Future RevenueVisibility
v EBIT Margins:
Ă Defense Systems: 10.0% â 11.5%
Ă Flight Systems: 13.0% â 14.0%
Ă Space Systems: 9.0% â 10.0%
v Flight Systems Group commands a higher percentage of
backlog which will improve margins as mix of revenue
becomes favorable
v Orbitalâs book-to-bill ratio8 was 116% in 2015
Ă Continues to generate more backlog than revenue
v Backlog provides relatively certain revenue and
subsequent cash flows
Ă Current Backlog ~$8.1 Billion
Ă Option Backlog ~$5.4 Billion
v Research and Development comprises ~2.5% of sales
Ă In-line withcompetition
Ă Increasing R&D tosource new contracts viainnovative
technologies
Ă All contract-relatedR&D is passed on tocustomer
41%
33%
26%
30%
51%
19%
Defense Systems Group
Flight Systems Group
Space Systems Group
2015 Revenue: Inside
Total Backlog: Outside
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2016E 2017E 2018E
Estimated Revenue Current Backlog
($inmillions)
14
Sources: Company 10-K, Company Investors Report
15. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
$60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 $110.00 $120.00 $130.00 $140.00
52-Week Trading Range
Bear Case - Segmented DCF
Comparables - EV/EBITDA
Comparables - P/E
Base Case - Segmented DCF
Traditional DCF
Bull Case - Segmented DCF
Valuation Overview
2016E Earnings: $5.63 Forward P/E: 19.5x
2017E Earnings: $6.20 Forward P/E: 17.7x
Current Price: $86.56 PriceTarget: $110.00
15
Sources: Team Projections
16. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
FY 2015 CY 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Historical Bull Base Bear Consensus
MultiplesAnalysis
EPS Projections Unwarranted Pessimism
Multiple Premium vs. Peer Group Paying a Discount for Premium Growth
v Orbital ATK will beat consensus EPS over the
medium-term asWall Streethas become negative
Ă Recent downgrades in EPS due toweaker revenue
guidance and unfavorable mixof revenue
Ă Overlooking strengthin foreign spending and
continued execution of synergies
v Free cash flow generation greater than 100% of net
income will fund share buybacks and dividend hikes
Ă Provides a floor to any short-term weakness in equity
markets
v Orbital ATK has typically traded in-line or at a
premium multiple versus its peer group
Ă Sell-off at beginning of 2016 was due to systemic risk
Ă No major change in Orbitalâs underlying cash flows
v No one company competes with Orbital in all three
business segments
Ă Allows OA tocompete individually withcompetitors
Ă Orbital ATK should trade at a premium relative to its
peers
(20.0%)
(10.0%)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2/19/2015 5/19/2015 8/19/2015 11/19/2015 2/19/2016
P/E Ratio EV/EBITDA
16
Sources: Bloomberg, Team Projections
17. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Comparables
($ and ⏠in millions except per share data)
Company Name
Ticker &
Exchange
Share Price
% of 52-
WK. High
Market
Cap.
Enterprise
Value
LTM Price Enterprise Value
EPS (TTM)
Estimated
EPS
Forward
PE
Profit
MarginEBITDA Revenue Earnings Book EBITDA Revenue
AEROJET ROCKETDYNE AJRD US $17.66 35.5% 1,107 1,548 99 1,703 -- -- 15.6x 0.9x $0.17 $0.96 16.7x 2.2%
AIRBUS GROUP SE AIR FP âŹ65.28 37.1% 50,887 38,603 5,310 71,540 22.9x 7.4x 7.2x 0.6x ⏠2.78 ⏠3.43 18.6x 3.4%
BOEING CO/THE BA US $131.97 57.5% 86,382 84,356 9,276 96,114 17.6x 13.6x 9.1x 0.9x $7.34 $9.44 13.7x 6.6%
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP GD US $136.29 45.7% 41,917 42,531 4,660 31,469 15.6x 3.9x 9.1x 1.3x $8.56 $10.09 13.2x 9.4%
L-3 COMMUNICATIONS LLL US $122.50 70.7% 9,552 13,061 1,151 11,194 16.5x 2.1x 11.4x 1.1x $7.27 $7.57 15.8x 5.7%
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP LMT US $227.14 98.1% 69,034 83,205 6,462 46,132 20.1x 22.1x 12.9x 1.8x $11.26 $13.60 16.6x 8.1%
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC US $202.79 97.9% 36,523 40,620 3,543 23,526 20.2x 6.6x 11.5x 1.7x $9.90 $11.93 16.8x 8.2%
RAYTHEON COMPANY RTN US $126.35 89.5% 37,498 40,185 3,502 23,247 18.1x 3.7x 11.5x 1.7x $6.96 $7.92 15.9x 7.4%
THALES SA HO FP âŹ87.45 94.3% 18,490 16,594 1,562 15,610 22.7x 3.5x 10.6x 1.2x âŹ3.82 âŹ4.18 20.7x 5.7%
1st Quartile 45.7% 18,490 16,594 1,562 15,610 17.7x 3.7x 9.1x 0.9x $3.82 $4.18 15.8x 5.7%
Median 70.7% 37,498 40,185 3,543 23,526 19.2x 5.2x 11.3x 1.2x $7.27 $7.92 16.6x 6.6%
Mean 69.6% 39,043 40,078 3,952 35,615 19.5x 7.9x 11.0x 1.2x $6.45 $7.68 16.5x 6.3%
3rd Quartile 94.3% 50,887 42,531 5,310 46,132 21.1x 8.9x 11.5x 1.7x $8.56 $10.09 16.8x 8.1%
ORBITAL ATK INDUSTRIES OA US $86.56 79.3% 5,076 6,422 634 4,371 17.0x 2.6x 10.2x 1.5x $5.11 $5.55 15.5x 7.1%
Valuation Commentary ImpliedValuation
v Comparable companies derive revenue from numerous
sources within the aerospace & defense industry
Ă No one company operates solely within a subsector, as
the top players are conglomerates with multiple revenue-
generating products and services
v Orbital ATK is undervalued based on backwards and
forward-looking multiples
EV/EBITDA
1st Quartile Median Mean 3rd Quartile
Implied Price $73.16 $96.44 $93.27 $98.56
Upside (15.4%) 11.5% 7.8% 13.9%
P/E
1st Quartile Median Mean 3rd Quartile
Implied Price $90.45 $98.11 $99.65 $107.82
Upside 4.6% 13.4% 15.2% 24.6%
17
Sources: Bloomberg, Team Projections
18. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
IntrinsicValuation
($ in millions) 9 months ended
Dec 31 2015
Fiscal Year Ended December 31,
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
EBITDA 458,931 691,661 720,157 764,858 778,689 796,394
Less: D&A 136,544 159,125 156,132 154,763 154,809 155,842
EBIT 322,387 532,536 564,025 610,095 623,880 640,552
Tax Effect 103,164 170,411 180,488 195,230 199,641 204,977
NOPAT 219,223 362,124 383,537 414,865 424,238 435,575
Add: D&A 136,544 159,125 156,132 154,763 154,809 155,842
Less: CapEx (104,634) (138,922) (145,868) (153,162) (159,288) (165,660)
Less: Changein NWC 3,435 (8,942) 3,146 (14,967) (1,620) (2,452)
Free Cash Flow 254,568 373,385 396,947 401,498 418,139 423,305
Traditional Discounted Cash Flow
Valuation Commentary
v Two intrinsic valuations were calculated
Ă Traditional income statement
Ă Segmented EBIT margins
v Debt issued last year for âcorporate purposesâ results in
a lower cost of capital for Orbital ATK versus peers
v Favorable draw downs in future accounts receivable
allow free cash flow to be a significant percentage of
NOPAT
WACC
Perpetuity
Growth
$115.10 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% 6.7% 6.5%
3.0% $116.97 $125.27 $134.61 $145.21 $157.34
2.8% $110.98 $118.49 $126.88 $136.33 $147.06
2.5% $105.59 $112.42 $120.02 $128.52 $138.08
2.3% $100.72 $106.97 $113.88 $121.57 $130.17
2.0% $96.30 $102.04 $108.37 $115.37 $123.15
WACC
ExitMultiple
$102.40 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% 6.7% 6.5%
11.2x $110.20 $111.63 $113.08 $114.55 $116.04
10.7x $105.46 $106.83 $108.23 $109.64 $111.08
10.2x $100.72 $102.04 $103.38 $104.74 $106.11
9.7x $95.98 $97.25 $98.53 $99.83 $101.15
9.2x $91.24 $92.45 $93.68 $94.92 $96.18
Traditional DCF Sensitivity
18
Sources: Team Projections
19. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Situation Analysis
v Competes against private companies
that do not have to be mindful of
shareholders in business decisions
W
TO
v Diversified products allow for more
growth opportunities and restrict
direct competition
v Large portion of backlog is
concentrated in high margin
segments
v Strong cash flowgeneration
S
v Strong dollar puts Orbital at a
disadvantage to international
competition
v Capitalize on trend
towards precision strikes
and guided weapons systems
in modern combat
v Execution of new programs
winning incremental contracts
v Erupting conflict among unstable
regions
v Significant reductions in
NASA/DoD spending
v Complications arising from
launching supplies and
satellites into orbit
v Lose contracts due to mission
failures or innovative competition
v Lower asset returns can disrupt
current pension funding plans
19
Sources: Team Projections, Company 10-K
20. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
FinalThoughts
$60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00
52-Week Trading Range
Bear Case - Segmented DCF
Comparables - EV/EBITDA
Comparables - P/E
Base Case - Segmented DCF
Traditional DCF
Bull Case - Segmented DCF
International
Military
Spending
Ramp-up in
Aircraft
Orders and
Deliveries
Innovation
in Space
Systems
Effective Use
of Capital
and FCF
v Strength in airlinerswill driveordersand backlogs
abovecurrent record levels
v Deterioration in averagelifeof wide-bodyplanes
presents opportunity forOrbital ATK to expand
within thishigh-margin vertical
v Strategic R&D hasled to revolutionaryconceptsthat
were unobtainablejust a few yearsago
v Execution of innovativecontractswith inaugural
customerswill lead to ancillary contracts
v Combined entitiesof Orbital Sciencesand ATKenable
capacity for further leverageto return capital to
shareholders
v Commencement of key contractsallowsforfavorable
working capitalconditions
v Unrest in theMiddleEast and Southeast Asia hasled to
largedefensebudget increasesby many countriesin
these regions
v Orbital ATK iswell positioned to takeadvantage
through thepresenceof internationaloffices
Valuation Range
Recommendation
v We recommend OrbitalATK as a Buy with a 12
month price target of $110.00, which
represents an upside of 27.1% from the current
share price of $86.56
20
Sources: Team Projections
22. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Appendix Contents
v Pro Forma Income Statement
v Pro Forma Balance Sheet
v Pro Forma Statement of Cash Flows
v Pro Forma Merger Financials
v Further Financial Breakdown
v Case Conditions
v North American Operations
v Major International Locations
v Management
v IndustryTerminology
22
23. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Pro Forma Income Statement
Income Statement 9 months
ended Dec 31
2015
Amounts in thousands, except per share data Fiscal Year Ended March 31, Fiscal Year Ended December 31,
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales $3,206,096 $2,925,237 $3,173,967 $3,399,089 $4,630,746 $4,862,283 $5,105,397 $5,309,613 $5,521,998
Cost of sales 2,521,277 2,277,939 2,469,865 2,729,898 3,505,474 3,675,886 3,852,022 4,006,103 4,174,630
Gross profit 684,819 647,298 704,102 669,191 1,125,271 1,186,397 1,253,375 1,303,510 1,347,367
Research and development 55,958 48,536 49,349 83,209 138,922 145,868 142,951 159,288 165,660
Selling 90,219 87,554 89,941 88,177 129,661 136,144 142,951 148,669 154,616
General and administrative 200,568 209,251 298,559 225,418 324,152 340,360 357,378 371,673 386,540
Gain on settlement 0 0 0 (50,000) 0 0 0 0 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 34,300 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income from continuing operations, before interest, taxesand noncontrolling interest 338,074 301,957 231,953 322,387 532,536 564,025 610,095 623,880 640,552
Interest expense, net (65,386) (79,792) (88,676) (57,163) (55,659) (54,887) (54,096) (76,151) (105,350)
Loss on extinguishment of debt (11,773) 0 (26,626) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income from continuing operations, before income taxesand noncontrolling interest 260,915 222,165 116,651 265,224 476,876 509,138 555,999 547,729 535,202
Income taxes 73,746 62,542 39,117 83,659 152,600 162,924 177,920 175,273 171,265
Income from continuing operations, before noncontrolling interest 187,169 159,623 77,534 181,565 324,276 346,214 378,079 372,456 363,937
Less net income attributable to noncontrolling interest 436 171 99 143 0 0 0 0 0
Income from continuing operations of Orbital ATK, Inc. 186,733 159,452 77,435 181,422 324,276 346,214 378,079 372,456 363,937
Discontinued Operations:
Income from discontinued operations, net 85,072 181,463 125,049 1,008 0 0 0 0 0
Net income attributable to Orbital ATK, Inc. $271,805 $340,915 $202,484 $182,430 $324,276 $346,214 $378,079 $372,456 $363,937
Basic earnings per common share from:
Continuing operations $5.76 $5.03 $2.18 $3.06 $5.63 $6.20 $7.04 $7.21 $7.32
Discontinued operations 2.62 5.73 3.53 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Earnings attributable to Orbital ATK, Inc. $8.38 $10.76 $5.71 $3.07 $5.63 $6.20 $7.04 $7.21 $7.32
Weighted-average number of common shares outstanding 32,447 31,671 35,469 59,358 57,572 55,872 53,712 51,655 49,696
Diluted earnings per common share from:
Continuing operations $5.73 $4.87 $2.14 $3.03 $5.60 $6.17 $7.00 $7.17 $7.29
Discontinued operations 2.61 5.55 3.46 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Earnings attributable to Orbital ATK, Inc. $8.34 $10.42 $5.60 $3.04 $5.60 $6.17 $7.00 $7.17 $7.29
Weighted-average number of diluted common shares outstanding 32,608 32,723 36,140 59,915 57,860 56,151 53,981 51,914 49,945
23
Back
24. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
December
31,2015
Amounts in thousands, except per share data Fiscal Year Ended March 31, Fiscal Year Ended December 31,
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cash and cash equivalents 266,632 139,253 104,032 144,708 199,937 202,253 948,776 1,085,328
Net receivables 1,175,674 1,793,556 1,784,434 1,771,323 1,825,021 1,888,298 1,934,736 1,999,084
Net inventories 134,390 196,114 211,712 215,500 216,525 221,623 219,512 216,716
Income taxes receivable 0 31,415 50,769 50,769 50,769 50,769 50,769 50,769
Deferred income taxes 28,802 107,484 0 0 0 0 0 0
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 43,331 121,084 89,495 127,346 121,557 127,635 132,740 124,245
Current assets of discontinued operations 798,253 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total current assets 2,447,082 2,388,906 2,240,442 2,309,646 2,413,809 2,490,578 3,286,533 3,476,142
Net property, plant, and equipment 508,455 807,057 806,187 808,058 816,556 830,904 848,938 870,279
Goodwill 1,043,463 1,875,269 1,832,066 1,832,066 1,832,066 1,832,066 1,832,066 1,832,066
Net intangibles 10,470 165,207 147,156 125,083 106,320 90,372 76,816 65,294
Deferred income taxes 101,147 140,321 209,861 209,861 209,861 209,861 209,861 209,861
Deferred charges and other noncurrent assets 111,157 127,642 117,844 127,346 133,713 140,398 146,014 151,855
Noncurrent assets of discontinued operations 1,636,003 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total assets 5,857,777 5,504,402 5,353,556 5,412,059 5,512,325 5,594,179 6,400,229 6,605,496
Liabilities
Current portion of long-term debt 249,228 59,997 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 630,000 0
Accounts payable 64,804 158,137 129,312 119,722 130,922 147,749 159,147 171,091
Contract-related liabilities 69,241 357,296 340,888 333,020 349,209 365,942 380,580 396,590
Contract advances and allowances 105,787 173,198 172,046 185,230 194,491 204,216 212,385 220,880
Accrued compensation 98,412 135,528 125,278 136,144 142,951 150,099 156,103 162,347
Other current liabilities 215,790 212,628 159,455 172,449 181,071 190,125 197,730 205,639
Current liabilities of discontinued operations 326,888 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total current liabilities 1,130,150 1,096,784 966,979 986,565 1,038,645 1,098,130 1,735,943 1,156,547
Long-term debt 1,843,750 1,528,504 1,450,000 $1,410,000 $1,370,000 $1,330,000 $1,450,000 $2,200,000
Postretirement and postemployment benefits 72,116 74,658 59,202 59,202 59,202 59,202 59,202 59,202
Pension 525,775 851,001 761,632 721,632 681,632 641,632 601,632 561,632
Other noncurrent liabilities 103,730 165,795 167,798 181,525 190,601 200,132 208,137 216,462
Noncurrent liabilities of discontinued operations 260,118 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities 3,935,639 3,716,742 3,405,611 3,358,925 3,340,080 3,329,096 4,054,914 4,193,843
Commitments and contingencies
Common stock 318 594 587 587 587 587 587 587
Additionalpaid-in-capital 534,015 2,182,814 2,187,940 2,187,940 2,187,940 2,187,940 2,187,940 2,187,940
Retained earnings 2,789,264 1,160,272 1,305,550 1,560,739 1,829,850 2,122,688 2,402,920 2,669,258
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (680,809) (847,648) (785,908) (785,908) (785,908) (785,908) (785,908) (785,908)
Common stock in treasury, at cost (731,213) (719,034) (771,029) (921,029) (1,071,029) (1,271,029) (1,471,029) (1,671,029)
Total Orbital ATK, Inc. stockholders' equity 1,911,575 1,776,998 1,937,140 2,042,329 2,161,440 2,254,278 2,334,510 2,400,848
Noncontrolling interest 10,563 10,662 10,805 10,805 10,805 10,805 10,805 10,805
Total equity 1,922,138 1,787,660 1,947,945 2,053,134 2,172,245 2,265,083 2,345,315 2,411,653
Total liabilities and equity 5,857,777 5,504,402 5,353,556 5,412,059 5,512,325 5,594,179 6,400,229 6,605,496
24
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25. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow Statement
9 months ended
Dec 31 2015
Amounts in thousands, except per sharedata Fiscal YearEnded March 31, Fiscal YearEnded December 31,
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Operating Activities
Net income 272,241 341,086 202,583 182,573 324,276 346,214 378,079 372,456 363,937
Net income fromdiscontinued operations (85,072) (181,463) (125,049) (1,008) 0 0 0 0 0
Incomefrom continuing operations 187,169 159,623 77,534 181,565 324,276 346,214 378,079 372,456 363,937
Adjustments toreconcile income from continuing operations to cashprovided by operating activities:
Depreciation 77,605 69,192 75,764 90,507 137,052 137,370 138,815 141,254 144,320
Amortization of intangibleassets 3,330 3,112 9,263 33,371 22,073 18,762 15,948 13,556 11,522
Amortization of debt discount 6,875 7,364 3,212 0 0 0 0 0 0
Amortization of deferred financing costs 3,847 10,222 5,157 12,666 0 0 0 0 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 34,300 0 0 0 0 0 0
Loss on theextinguishment of debt 11,773 0 26,626 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred income taxes (11,717) 6,828 (6,119) 51,295 0 0 0 0 0
(Gain) loss on disposalof property (1,542) 594 2,114 11,197 0 0 0 0 0
Share-based plans expense 12,025 12,701 25,325 19,589 0 0 0 0 0
Excess tax benefits fromshare-based plans (2) (833) (7,004) (4,997) 0 0 0 0 0
Changes inassets and liabilities:
Net receivables 38,608 5,533 (55,243) 5,122 13,111 (53,698) (63,276) (46,438) (64,348)
Net inventories (12,892) (63,437) 13,570 (15,598) (3,788) (1,024) (5,098) 2,111 2,797
Accounts payable (30,851) (71,314) 55,710 (29,276) (9,590) 11,199 16,827 11,398 11,945
Contract advances and allowances 1,718 (39,465) 27,123 (1,152) 13,184 9,261 9,725 8,169 8,495
Accrued compensation 3,614 (16,362) (39,950) (10,243) 10,866 6,807 7,148 6,004 6,244
Contract-related liabilities 22,961 (13,725) 93,298 (16,408) (7,868) 16,189 16,733 14,638 16,010
Pension and other postretirement benefits (31,990) 70,750 (41,569) (3,736) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000)
Other assets and liabilities (95,600) 21,178 (108,256) (20,500) (20,631) 17,120 5,820 4,889 18,889
Cash provided by operating activities of continuing operations 184,931 161,961 190,855 303,402 438,685 468,201 480,719 488,035 479,812
Cash provided by operating activities of discontinued operations 88,660 226,060 120,476 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash provided by operating activities 273,591 388,021 311,331 303,402 438,685 468,201 480,719 488,035 479,812
Investing Activities
Continuing operations:
Capital expenditures (73,494) (105,730) (112,704) (104,634) (138,922) (145,868) (153,162) (159,288) (165,660)
Cash acquired in Merger with Orbital 0 0 253,734 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash dividend received from VistaOutdoor, net of cash transferred to VistaOutdoor 0 0 188,878 (6,500) 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds fromthedisposition of property plant and equipment 172 5,488 2,290 40 0 0 0 0 0
Cash provided by (used for) investing activities of continuing operations (73,322) (100,242) 332,198 (111,094) (138,922) (145,868) (153,162) (159,288) (165,660)
Cash used for investing activities of discontinued operations (23,395) (1,341,747) (30,585) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash provided by (used for) investing activities (96,717) (1,441,989) 301,613 (111,094) (138,922) (145,868) (153,162) (159,288) (165,660)
Financing Activities
Continuing operations:
Borrowings on line of credit 0 280,000 798,000 1,040,000 0 0 0 0 0
Repayments of line of credit 0 (280,000) (798,000) (1,040,000) 0 0 0 0 0
Payments made on bank debt (35,000) (38,263) (58,249) (24,999) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) 0
Payments made to extinguish debt (409,000) (510,000) (777,220) (1,273,502) 0 0 0 0 (630,000)
Proceeds fromissuance of long-termdebt 200,000 1,560,000 150,000 1,200,000 0 0 0 750,000 750,000
Payments made for debt issue costs (1,458) (21,641) (1,008) (10,262) 0 0 0 0 0
Purchase of treasury shares (58,371) (53,270) (16,788) (81,344) (150,000) (150,000) (200,000) (200,000) (200,000)
Dividends paid (30,033) (35,134) (41,056) (46,103) (69,087) (77,103) (85,241) (92,224) (97,599)
Proceeds fromemployee stock compensation plans 5,461 729 0 3,684 0 0 0 0 0
Excess tax benefits fromshare-based plans 2 833 7,004 4,997 0 0 0 0 0
Cash provided by (used for) financing activitiesof continuing operations (328,399) 903,254 (737,317) (227,529) (259,087) (267,103) (325,241) 417,776 (177,599)
Effect of foreign currency exchangerate fluctuations on cash 0 58 (3,006) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (151,525) (150,656) (127,379) (35,221) 40,676 55,229 2,316 746,522 136,553
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year 568,813 417,288 266,632 139,253 104,032 144,708 199,937 202,253 948,776
Cash andcash equivalents at end of year 417,288 266,632 139,253 104,032 144,708 199,937 202,253 948,776 1,085,328
25
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26. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Pro Forma Merger Financials
Income Statement
Amounts in thousands, except per share data
For the Year Ended March 31, 2014
ATK (As
Reported)
Bushnell and
Savage Arms
Pro Forma
Adjustments
ATK pre-
Distribution
(As Adjusted)
Vista Outdoor
Pro Forma
Combined Adjustments
ATK pre-
Merger (As
Adjusted)
Orbital (As
Reported)
December 31,
2013
Merger Pro
Forma
Adjustments
Orbital ATK
Pro Forma
Consolidated
Sales 4,775,128 405,755 5,180,883 (2,279,674) 284,832 3,186,041 1,365,271 (78,826) 4,472,486
Cost of sales 3,635,486 234,347 3,869,833 (1,640,963) 284,373 2,513,243 1,062,466 (78,826) 3,496,883
Gross profit 1,139,642 171,408 1,311,050 (638,711) 459 672,798 302,805 0 975,603
Research and development 62,520 0 62,520 (13,984) 0 48,536 89,233 0 137,769
Selling 203,976 90,098 294,074 (201,780) (4,740) 87,554 28,707 0 116,261
General and administrative 282,840 33,079 315,919 (140,909) 16,567 191,577 71,320 29,151 292,048
Income before interest, taxes, and noncontrolling interest 590,306 48,231 638,537 (282,038) (11,368) 345,131 113,545 (29,151) 429,525
Interest expense (80,044) 0 (80,044) 15,469 (15,469) (80,044) (4,556) 28,134 (56,466)
Interest income and other, net 252 0 252 0 0 252 (5,368) 0 (5,116)
Income before taxes and noncontrolling interest 510,514 48,231 558,745 (266,569) (26,837) 265,339 103,621 (1,017) 367,943
Income tax provision 169,428 17,845 187,273 (102,926) (9,930) 74,417 35,255 (376) 109,296
Net income before noncontrolling interest 341,086 30,386 371,472 (163,643) (16,907) 190,922 68,366 (641) 258,647
Less net income attributable to noncontrolling interest 171 0 171 0 0 171 0 0 171
Net income 340,915 30,386 371,301 (163,643) (16,907) 190,751 68,366 (641) 258,476
Earnings per common share:
Basic $10.76 $11.72 $6.02 $1.13 $4.39
Diluted $10.42 $11.35 $5.83 $1.13 $4.31
Weighted-average number of common sharesoutstanding:
Basic 31,671 31,671 31,671 60,161 58,866
Diluted 32,723 32,723 32,723 60,444 59,918
26
Back
27. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
59%22%
19%
Flight SystemsGroup
Defense Systems Group
Space Systems Group
Further Financial Breakdown
39%
42%
19%
Firm Backlog Option Backlog
~$8.1 Billion ~$5.4 Billion
WACC Calculation
Total Debt 1,450,000 22.2%
Total Equity 5,076,014 77.8%
6,526,014 100.0%
Beta 0.842
Expected Market Return 9.4%
Risk Free Rate 1.8%
Cost of Equity 8.2%
Pre-Cost of Debt 3.8%
Tax Rate 32.0%
Cost of Debt 2.6%
WACC 7.0%
OPERATING SEGMENT MODEL DCF
BASE CASE 9 months
ended Dec
31 2015
($ in millions) Fiscal Year Ended December 31,
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
EBITDA 458,931 661,608 691,832 731,874 770,627 800,415
Less: D&A 136,544 159,125 156,132 154,763 154,809 155,842
EBIT 322,387 502,483 535,700 577,112 615,817 644,573
Tax Effect 103,164 160,795 171,424 184,676 197,061 206,263
NOPAT 219,223 341,689 364,276 392,436 418,756 438,310
Add: D&A 136,544 159,125 156,132 154,763 154,809 155,842
Less: CapEx (104,634) (138,922) (145,868) (153,162) (159,288) (165,660)
Less: Change in NWC 3,435 (8,942) 3,146 (14,967) (1,620) (2,452)
Free Cash Flow 254,568 352,949 377,686 379,070 412,657 426,039
Sources: Team Projections and Company 10-K Back
27
28. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Case Conditions
Bear BullBase
v Steep decline of revenue in 2020
as existing contracts run dry
v Orbital is unable to perform
initial contract successfully
v Lack of asset returns cause
Orbital to have to contribute
significant capital to pension
v Catastrophic failure of upgraded
Antares rocket inhibits Orbitalâs
return to space for a significant
amount of time
v Nominal performance of global
economy with average GDP
growth at 2.5%-3.0%
v Continued execution of
synergies and increased global
footprint
v Slight margin improvement as
costs come down and revenue
mix becomes favorable
v Sales growth tapers off in 2020
as growth opportunities become
realized
v Acceleration of global economy,
especially in developing markets
v Strong demand for space travel
from commercial and
government customers
v Continued cost-cutting
measures are fully passed along
to shareholders
v Escalation of military
involvement in terror-affected
regions
4,000
4,400
4,800
5,200
5,600
6,000
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
RevenueProjections
Bear
Base
Bull
($inmillions)
500
600
700
800
900
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
EBITDA Projections
Bear
Base
Bull
($inmillions)
Sources: Team Projections Back
28
29. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
North American Operations
Corporate Headquarters
Flight Systems
Defense Systems
Space Systems
29
Sources: Company 10-K Back
30. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Major International Locations
*Several other, undisclosed international locations
Sources: Company 10-K Back
30
31. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
Management
DavidW.Thompson Dr. Antonio L. Elias
Garrett E. Pierce Solid Education and Experience
v President and Chief Executive Officer of Orbital ATK
v Co-founded Orbital Sciences in 1982
Ă Prior to that, was special assistant to the president of
Hughes Aircraft Companyâs Missile Systems Group
Ă Has worked with NASA through JPL and the Johnson
Space Center since he was in college
v Received a B.S. inAeronautics and Astronautics from
MIT,an M.S.in Aeronautics from Caltech, and a M.B.A.
from the Harvard School of Business
v Chief Financial Officer andVice Chairman of the Board
v Joined Orbital Sciences in 2000
Ă Previously was an executive at various semiconductor
companies that were acquired
v Holds a B.A. and a M.S. in economics from Southern
Illinois University
Ă Certified Public Accountant
v Attended Stanford Universityâs Executive Financial
Management Program
v Executive VP and ChiefTechnical Officer
v Has held management roles within Orbital since 1987
Ă Led original design team of the Pegasus rocket
v Held various teaching and research roles in the
Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics at the
Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology
v Holds B.S., M.S.,E.A.A. & Ph.D. degreesfrom MIT
31
Sources: Company 10-K Back
32. Investment Thesis
& Overview
Industry Dynamics Growth Opportunities
& Drivers
Valuation Risks& Final
Thoughts
Appendix
IndustryTerminology
[1] Captures the totaldistance flown by the airlinesârevenue passengers in kilometers
[2] Orbits not in GSO (see 7)
[3] Satellites which orbit between 400 and 1,000 miles above the Earthâs surface
[4] Carrying capacity hindered due to other use offuel not related to initial propulsion of space vehicle
[5] Orbitalâs two-stagevehicle that provides LEO launch capability for payloads weighing over 7,000 kg
[6] NASAâs second commercial resupply service missions to the InternationalSpace Station
[7] An orbit around the equator following the direction of the Earthâs rotation
[8]The ratio of orders received to amount billed for specific period
32
Sources: Company website, Company 10-K, FAA Back