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EY Price Point Q3 2022

EY
EY

The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.

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EY Price Point:
global oil and gas
market outlook
Q3 | July 2022
Q2 in review
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
abrogan@uk.ey.com
Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 2
We begin the third quarter of 2022 with a heightened sense that the era of affordable, reliable hydrocarbon
supplies might never return. Petroleum prices rose relentlessly in the face of escalating concerns about the
capacity of the industry outside of Russia to meet demand that has come back from the COVID-19 pandemic
and have not been materially impacted by electrification and the emergence of renewables. Demand continues
to climb toward pre-pandemic levels, and the most recent OPEC demand forecast puts the 2022 average at
100.3 mbpd, 100kbpd barrels above where it was in 2019. Economic growth has come into question, and it is
unclear whether those forecasts will come to pass.
The supply side of the equation is increasingly problematic. Russian production has stabilized (even increasing
slightly in May) after falling 900kbpd in April. Official sanctioning by European countries is set to begin at the
end of the year; the ability of the market to redirect more barrels will be tested. It remains to be seen how the
market will replace those barrels, let alone accommodate additional demand growth. OPEC output fell
marginally (176kbpd) in May to 28.5 mbpd, and spare capacity among members is limited. European gas
markets reacted sharply to curtailed deliveries through the Nordstream pipeline, ostensibly because of
technical issues. For Henry Hub, the market ended the quarter in a steep slide precipitated by the delayed
restart of a Gulf Coast liquefaction plant, underscoring how important the export market has become in the
North American supply-demand equation. Product markets have proven to be the most volatile segment of the
petroleum complex, with crack spreads tripling since the end of last year.
?
Q3 theme
Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 3
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG
and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below
$100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are
increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
It is inevitable that inflation, and central bank policy to combat it, will impact oil and gas markets. Pandemic-
induced fiscal and monetary expansion and supply chain interruption have conspired to put relentless upward
pressure on the price of everything. The obvious response, higher interest rates and an end to quantitative
easing, are bound to affect economic growth. Layered onto the policy risks are the potential for ongoing supply-
side issues created by the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 lockdowns in China. A growing sense of pessimism
(reflected in equity values) about how much GDP might grow, or shrink, has crept into market sentiment. Crude
began to retreat by the end of Q2 as evidenced by the Brent and WTI prices falling below their 50- and 200-day
averages.
The supply side of the equation is equally murky. The combination of tougher sanctions on Russian oil and
Russia’s use of gas supplies as leverage against countries aiding Ukraine and participating in other sanctions
brings additional uncertainty to an already volatile market. In early June, the EU approved sanctions on Russian
oil that begin in early December and cover about two-thirds of crude oil imports (currently about 2.8 mbpd) and
all refined product imports (about 1.2 mbpd). Time will tell how much of that oil will find its way into non-
sanctioning countries and how much will actually disappear from the market.
• How will central bank policies engineered to fight inflation filter through to economic growth, energy demand
and petroleum markets?
• What impact will European sanctions on Russia have on global supply-demand balance?
• At what point will elevated oil and natural gas prices get high enough to cause demand destruction?
• How will higher energy prices and reduced energy supplies affect the world economy?
Q3 trends
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 4 Q3 | July 2022
Gas shortages
looming in
Europe
Consumer
response holds
the key to oil
markets
Inflation
concerns
dominate the
economic
narrative
Refining
spreads at two
times previous
record
Increases in consumer prices are at
40-year highs in the US and Europe.
Central bank action is likely to be swift
and decisive, and it is difficult to know
whether the fallout from any economic
contraction will offset ongoing supply-
side issues.
Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russian
exports accounted for almost 10% of the
global trade in refined oil products. The
loss of much of that capacity has thrown
the markets into upheaval; the average
crack spread for June was almost
US$60/bbl.
Oil is known to be highly price-inelastic.
Substitutes are few and the value
proposition is compelling, even at
elevated prices. Supply-side relief is
unlikely in this cycle and the willingness
of consumers to continue buying, no
matter the cost, will be tested and will
set the market top.
Toward the end of the quarter, Russia
cut supplies of natural gas through the
Nordstream pipeline for what it
claimed were technical reasons.
Physical shortages are a real
possibility this winter, and the effects
on the power sector and industry are
difficult to predict.
Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 5
Market fundamentals
• Counter to intuition and conventional wisdom, oil prices rose in Q2 even as balance
moved in the direction of oversupply. Fear and uncertainty about the future supply
picture and the effect of COVID-19 restrictions in China drove the markets while the
overall balance loosened in real time.
• The demand side of the market was a non-factor in Q2. Increased demand in US, Europe
and non-OECD countries outside of Russia and China was offset by normal seasonal
demand fluctuation in Japan. Various forecasts show robust growth in Q3 as China
emerges from lockdowns and OPEC predicts that demand for all of 2022 will come in
slightly above 2019 levels.
• Crude oil supply from countries outside of Russia increased by 1.5 mbpd, led by a
750kbpd increase from OPEC and North America. Russian supply cuts (1.2 mbpd) offset
most of those increases and it appears that crude oil supply concerns will continue to
dominate the discussion. The US EIA forecasts that the global oil production will
increase by 2mbpd in 2023, with US producers accounting for a 1.4 mbpd lift in output.
Oil market balance muddied by supply uncertainty
Sources: US EIA; EY analysis.
Movement to oversupply
Movement to undersupply
• Monetary and fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented. US
government spending increased to US$9.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2020 from
US$4.9 trillion in the first quarter. The US dollar money supply increased from US$15.4
trillion to US$21.7 trillion, where it sits today. Similar policies were adopted by European
and Asian governments and central banks.
• It is no surprise that these policies, combined with global supply-chain issues and large-
scale labor market dislocation led to upward pressure on prices. The US Bureau of Labor
Statistics Consumer Price Index increased by 8.6% from May 2021 to May 2022, the
highest in 40 years.
• Policy tapering has been measured. Governments and central banks have been reluctant
to pull back on support as coronavirus waves continued to disrupt economic recovery.
Public anxiety about price increases and a universal belief in the corrosive effects of
inflation have given monetary authorities no choice but to take action. The US Federal
Reserve has responded with an increase of 75 basis points in its official lending rate and
other central banks followed suit. It remains to be seen how soft a landing can be
engineered and what the effect on economic growth and commodity prices will be.
Sources: US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
Inflationary pressures accelerate
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22
Consumer price index, annual growth rate (%)
US CPI Euro Zone CPI
Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 6
Market fundamentals
Margins boost refinery utilization
• Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia accounted for 2.1 mbpd of refined products out of a
total global trade of 22 mbpd. It is unclear how many of those barrels are off the
market and how many have been redirected to non-sanctioning countries such as China
and India. Markets reflect the expectation of extreme tightness. Since the beginning of
Q2, the 3:2:1 crack spread has nearly doubled, from US$32.36 to US$57.40.
• This market backdrop has created huge incentives for refiners to reduce downtime to
the bare minimum and run refineries at maximum capacity. Refinery utilization rates in
the US averaged 91.3% for the month of March 2022 compared to an average of 85.9%
during the same period between 2010 and 2021. Utilization was around 94% of the
operable capacity for the first week of June, the highest for a week since 2019.
• According to the US EIA, refinery utilization will reach a monthly average level of 96%
twice this summer in June and August, near the upper limits of what refiners can
consistently maintain. Notwithstanding economics, maintenance outages will be
unavoidable at some point. Supply-side pressure will increase and market volatility is
likely to ensue.
Source: EIA Source: Enverus. EY Analysis
0
20
40
60
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22
Deal
value
(US$b)
Number
of
deals
Global oil and gas deals
Upstream Downstream OFS Deal Value
• 2021 was the year of recovery in the deal market. Interrupted deal-making logistics,
uncertain valuations and financial market turmoil depressed volumes and values for the
first three quarters of 2020. Momentum was interrupted in the first quarter of 2022 by
war-related uncertainties. Deal volume declined for upstream and downstream segments
by 13% and 14%, respectively, while OFS witnessed muted growth.
• Scale-driven mergers drove activity in US shale plays. In a major deal, two US
independents merged in a deal valuing US$6 billion. In LNG, a deal worth US$1.6 billion
gave the buyer a controlling stake in a Chile terminal.
• Rising crude oil, LNG and refined product prices will make assets up and down the value
chain increasingly attractive and should drive some interest in deal-making for the
remainder of this year. We can expect companies who want to reduce their carbon
footprint to take advantage of the selling opportunity.
• Tightening of money and increasing interest rates will almost certainly impact deal
activity. Central banks are tapering (and even reversing) asset-buying programs put in
place to support markets during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Deal activity-commodity prices enable ESG strategies
91.3
82.0
83.0
86.8
91.1
88.2
88.9
88.5
85.8
83.7
85.6
84.4
83.2
US refinery utilization rates (%)

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EY Price Point Q3 2022

  • 1. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Q3 | July 2022
  • 2. Q2 in review Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader gdonald@uk.ey.com Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader abrogan@uk.ey.com Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 2 We begin the third quarter of 2022 with a heightened sense that the era of affordable, reliable hydrocarbon supplies might never return. Petroleum prices rose relentlessly in the face of escalating concerns about the capacity of the industry outside of Russia to meet demand that has come back from the COVID-19 pandemic and have not been materially impacted by electrification and the emergence of renewables. Demand continues to climb toward pre-pandemic levels, and the most recent OPEC demand forecast puts the 2022 average at 100.3 mbpd, 100kbpd barrels above where it was in 2019. Economic growth has come into question, and it is unclear whether those forecasts will come to pass. The supply side of the equation is increasingly problematic. Russian production has stabilized (even increasing slightly in May) after falling 900kbpd in April. Official sanctioning by European countries is set to begin at the end of the year; the ability of the market to redirect more barrels will be tested. It remains to be seen how the market will replace those barrels, let alone accommodate additional demand growth. OPEC output fell marginally (176kbpd) in May to 28.5 mbpd, and spare capacity among members is limited. European gas markets reacted sharply to curtailed deliveries through the Nordstream pipeline, ostensibly because of technical issues. For Henry Hub, the market ended the quarter in a steep slide precipitated by the delayed restart of a Gulf Coast liquefaction plant, underscoring how important the export market has become in the North American supply-demand equation. Product markets have proven to be the most volatile segment of the petroleum complex, with crack spreads tripling since the end of last year.
  • 3. ? Q3 theme Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 3 The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand. It is inevitable that inflation, and central bank policy to combat it, will impact oil and gas markets. Pandemic- induced fiscal and monetary expansion and supply chain interruption have conspired to put relentless upward pressure on the price of everything. The obvious response, higher interest rates and an end to quantitative easing, are bound to affect economic growth. Layered onto the policy risks are the potential for ongoing supply- side issues created by the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 lockdowns in China. A growing sense of pessimism (reflected in equity values) about how much GDP might grow, or shrink, has crept into market sentiment. Crude began to retreat by the end of Q2 as evidenced by the Brent and WTI prices falling below their 50- and 200-day averages. The supply side of the equation is equally murky. The combination of tougher sanctions on Russian oil and Russia’s use of gas supplies as leverage against countries aiding Ukraine and participating in other sanctions brings additional uncertainty to an already volatile market. In early June, the EU approved sanctions on Russian oil that begin in early December and cover about two-thirds of crude oil imports (currently about 2.8 mbpd) and all refined product imports (about 1.2 mbpd). Time will tell how much of that oil will find its way into non- sanctioning countries and how much will actually disappear from the market. • How will central bank policies engineered to fight inflation filter through to economic growth, energy demand and petroleum markets? • What impact will European sanctions on Russia have on global supply-demand balance? • At what point will elevated oil and natural gas prices get high enough to cause demand destruction? • How will higher energy prices and reduced energy supplies affect the world economy?
  • 4. Q3 trends EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 4 Q3 | July 2022 Gas shortages looming in Europe Consumer response holds the key to oil markets Inflation concerns dominate the economic narrative Refining spreads at two times previous record Increases in consumer prices are at 40-year highs in the US and Europe. Central bank action is likely to be swift and decisive, and it is difficult to know whether the fallout from any economic contraction will offset ongoing supply- side issues. Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russian exports accounted for almost 10% of the global trade in refined oil products. The loss of much of that capacity has thrown the markets into upheaval; the average crack spread for June was almost US$60/bbl. Oil is known to be highly price-inelastic. Substitutes are few and the value proposition is compelling, even at elevated prices. Supply-side relief is unlikely in this cycle and the willingness of consumers to continue buying, no matter the cost, will be tested and will set the market top. Toward the end of the quarter, Russia cut supplies of natural gas through the Nordstream pipeline for what it claimed were technical reasons. Physical shortages are a real possibility this winter, and the effects on the power sector and industry are difficult to predict.
  • 5. Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 5 Market fundamentals • Counter to intuition and conventional wisdom, oil prices rose in Q2 even as balance moved in the direction of oversupply. Fear and uncertainty about the future supply picture and the effect of COVID-19 restrictions in China drove the markets while the overall balance loosened in real time. • The demand side of the market was a non-factor in Q2. Increased demand in US, Europe and non-OECD countries outside of Russia and China was offset by normal seasonal demand fluctuation in Japan. Various forecasts show robust growth in Q3 as China emerges from lockdowns and OPEC predicts that demand for all of 2022 will come in slightly above 2019 levels. • Crude oil supply from countries outside of Russia increased by 1.5 mbpd, led by a 750kbpd increase from OPEC and North America. Russian supply cuts (1.2 mbpd) offset most of those increases and it appears that crude oil supply concerns will continue to dominate the discussion. The US EIA forecasts that the global oil production will increase by 2mbpd in 2023, with US producers accounting for a 1.4 mbpd lift in output. Oil market balance muddied by supply uncertainty Sources: US EIA; EY analysis. Movement to oversupply Movement to undersupply • Monetary and fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented. US government spending increased to US$9.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2020 from US$4.9 trillion in the first quarter. The US dollar money supply increased from US$15.4 trillion to US$21.7 trillion, where it sits today. Similar policies were adopted by European and Asian governments and central banks. • It is no surprise that these policies, combined with global supply-chain issues and large- scale labor market dislocation led to upward pressure on prices. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index increased by 8.6% from May 2021 to May 2022, the highest in 40 years. • Policy tapering has been measured. Governments and central banks have been reluctant to pull back on support as coronavirus waves continued to disrupt economic recovery. Public anxiety about price increases and a universal belief in the corrosive effects of inflation have given monetary authorities no choice but to take action. The US Federal Reserve has responded with an increase of 75 basis points in its official lending rate and other central banks followed suit. It remains to be seen how soft a landing can be engineered and what the effect on economic growth and commodity prices will be. Sources: US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) Inflationary pressures accelerate -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Consumer price index, annual growth rate (%) US CPI Euro Zone CPI
  • 6. Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 6 Market fundamentals Margins boost refinery utilization • Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia accounted for 2.1 mbpd of refined products out of a total global trade of 22 mbpd. It is unclear how many of those barrels are off the market and how many have been redirected to non-sanctioning countries such as China and India. Markets reflect the expectation of extreme tightness. Since the beginning of Q2, the 3:2:1 crack spread has nearly doubled, from US$32.36 to US$57.40. • This market backdrop has created huge incentives for refiners to reduce downtime to the bare minimum and run refineries at maximum capacity. Refinery utilization rates in the US averaged 91.3% for the month of March 2022 compared to an average of 85.9% during the same period between 2010 and 2021. Utilization was around 94% of the operable capacity for the first week of June, the highest for a week since 2019. • According to the US EIA, refinery utilization will reach a monthly average level of 96% twice this summer in June and August, near the upper limits of what refiners can consistently maintain. Notwithstanding economics, maintenance outages will be unavoidable at some point. Supply-side pressure will increase and market volatility is likely to ensue. Source: EIA Source: Enverus. EY Analysis 0 20 40 60 80 0 100 200 300 400 500 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 Deal value (US$b) Number of deals Global oil and gas deals Upstream Downstream OFS Deal Value • 2021 was the year of recovery in the deal market. Interrupted deal-making logistics, uncertain valuations and financial market turmoil depressed volumes and values for the first three quarters of 2020. Momentum was interrupted in the first quarter of 2022 by war-related uncertainties. Deal volume declined for upstream and downstream segments by 13% and 14%, respectively, while OFS witnessed muted growth. • Scale-driven mergers drove activity in US shale plays. In a major deal, two US independents merged in a deal valuing US$6 billion. In LNG, a deal worth US$1.6 billion gave the buyer a controlling stake in a Chile terminal. • Rising crude oil, LNG and refined product prices will make assets up and down the value chain increasingly attractive and should drive some interest in deal-making for the remainder of this year. We can expect companies who want to reduce their carbon footprint to take advantage of the selling opportunity. • Tightening of money and increasing interest rates will almost certainly impact deal activity. Central banks are tapering (and even reversing) asset-buying programs put in place to support markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Deal activity-commodity prices enable ESG strategies 91.3 82.0 83.0 86.8 91.1 88.2 88.9 88.5 85.8 83.7 85.6 84.4 83.2 US refinery utilization rates (%)
  • 7. Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 7 Market fundamentals European gas markets: how high do prices need to go? • Energy markets are unique. Consumers are slow to respond to increases in price and producers face a series of challenges that create a time lag between jumps in price and new supplies. Extreme price spikes balance the market during supply interruptions. • European gas consumption, dominated by the power sector, has remained resilient in the face of stratospheric prices. Lower nuclear and hydro production, only partially compensated for by strong wind power output, has left gas-fired generation as the only alternative in the hydro-rich southern European markets such as Spain and Italy with limited coal-fired generation. Buyers in those markets are insensitive to price. • Forecasts of average weather conditions (if realized) during the rest of the year will moderate gas demand. Eventually, analysts expect economics to take over; European natural gas demand is expected to decline by close to 6% as higher gas prices will put gas-fired power plants at a disadvantage compared to coal, and industrial gas demand will slow with a decrease in the exports of energy intensive products. None of these factors is a certainty though and no one knows how high prices will go if weather forecasts or predictions about power sector or industrial demand turn out to be wrong. 3.1% -1.8% -4.4% 7.5% -4.5% -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21 1Q22* TTF price vs corresponding q-o-q growth in European gas demand Natural Gas Consumption Growth % TTF Front Month Prices (US$/mmbtu) Source: Eurostat, Refinitiv; *1Q22 natural gas consumption data available only for month of Jan and Feb; March figures are based on average of Jan and Feb; # TTF contract prices are for last day of the quarter Capital discipline continues in spite of favorable economics • Anxieties about oil and product supply have driven the market since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Replacing Russian oil and gas will take time and will also require substantial investment in oilfields, refineries and LNG infrastructure. Petroleum investment has always been cyclical. However, the recovery from the 2014/2015 downturn was barely complete when the COVID-19 pandemic hit and we appear to be stuck in a zone where companies are allocating smaller portions of their cash flow to the business than we are used to seeing. • In 2022, IOC spending is projected to grow by 27% to US$111 billion, but will still trail the 2019 spending of US$123 billion. Core businesses will have to compete with alternative energy businesses for that capital due to growing shareholder, customer and government pressure to reduce emissions. • Consensus forecasts show the percentage of operating cash that companies reinvest in their legacy business hovering in the 20—30% range. This can be compared to the 60— 80% spent in the middle of the last decade, a period with similar production economics. The future of oil and gas remains a huge risk. Many of the projects that companies might ordinarily be attracted to require a long view of demand and returns which currently embed a great deal of volatility and uncertainty. 61% 83% 79% 49% 39% 47% 63% 28% 22% 28% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e IOC* capex as % of EBITDA Source: Capital IQ; *IOC’s include Chevron, Repsol, Total Energies, BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, Equinor, ENI and Conoco Philips
  • 8. Brent futures Q3 | July 2022 Page 8 Brent futures have increased, given the escalating concerns about the capacity of the industry outside of Russia to meet demand that has come back from the COVID-19 pandemic. Going forward, supply concerns will be highly scrutinized. Prices may continue to stay elevated, yet volatile until the market can work through the current challenges and constraints. Futures data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Source: Bloomberg. 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 US$/bbl Historical Brent Brent futures - June 2022 Brent futures - March 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 9. Q3 | July 2022 Page 9 Oil price outlook For WTI and Brent, banks and brokers (on average) forecast a wider range of oil prices throughout the forecast period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable oil price, whereas banks and brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants. Where consultant estimates are updated only annually (for example, the EIA and the IEA), such estimates are included within the range of estimates from 2024 onward (or combined with short-term estimates published by the same consultant) to prevent near-term ranges being impacted by estimates that are not considered to reflect current market dynamics. Brent price estimates derived under the IEA’s “Stated Policies” and “Sustainable Development” scenarios (inflation-adjusted to reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges from 2024 onward. This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the assessment or generation of estimates. Brent: Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants Brent Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages WTI Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports. US$75.1 WTI: US$73.2 Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per barrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per barrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 10. Q3 | July 2022 Page 10 Gas price outlook For Henry Hub and UK NBP, consultants (on average) forecast a wider range of gas prices throughout the forecast period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable gas price, whereas banks and brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants. Where consultant estimates are updated only annually (for example, the EIA and the IEA), such estimates are included within the range of estimates from 2024 onward (or combined with short-term estimates published by the same consultant) to prevent near-term ranges being impacted by estimates that are not considered to reflect current market dynamics. Henry Hub price estimates derived under the IEA’s “Stated Policies” and ”Sustainable Development” scenarios (inflation- adjusted to reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges from 2024 onward. NBP price estimates are scarce, with only five and three forecasts released by banks and brokers and consultants, respectively. This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the assessment or generation of estimates. *NBP: National Balancing Point Henry Hub: Average price per MMBtu forecast in 2026 – consultants UK NBP: Average price per therm forecast in 2026 – consultants Henry Hub Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages UK NBP Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages US$3.4 £78.4 Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports. 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per MMbtu Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 GBp per therm Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 11. Q3 | July 2022 Page 11 Gas price outlook For TTF, consultants (on average) forecast a wider range of prices throughout the forecast period. For JKM, consultant forecasts are generally narrower in the short term and wider in the long term. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable gas price, whereas banks and brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants. JKM price estimates are scarce, with only four and two forecasts released for banks and brokers and consultants, respectively. TTF price estimates are scarce, with only two and four forecasts released by banks and brokers and consultants, respectively. This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Note: The wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the assessment or generation of estimates. JKM: Average price per MMBtu forecast in 2026 — consultants TTF: Average price per MMBtu forecast in 2026 — consultants JKM Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages TTF Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages US$14.4 US$13.0 Source: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultants’ websites and reports 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per MMbtu Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per MMbtu Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 12. Appendix Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 12 Brent oil price estimates This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. * Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics. Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 118.9 116.1 110.0 110.0 90.0 Average 104.1 94.4 83.5 78.1 75.2 Median 102.0 94.5 80.9 76.3 75.0 Low 95.5 73.7 68.0 60.0 60.0 Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 107.4 97.2 82.3 81.2 82.9 Average 100.8 89.2 75.1 74.0 75.1 Median 100.2 89.5 75.5 74.3 77.0 Low 96.5 85.0 62.2 62.0 62.5 Note: Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants. Where consultant estimates are updated only annually (for example, the EIA and the IEA), such estimates are included within the range of estimates from 2024 onward (or combined with short-term estimates published by the same consultant) to prevent near-term ranges being impacted by estimates that are not considered to reflect current market dynamics. Price estimates derived under the IEA’s “Stated Policies” and “Sustainable Development” scenarios (inflation-adjusted to reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges from 2024 onward.
  • 13. Appendix Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 13 WTI oil price estimates This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 114.6 110.0 95.2 86.0 86.0 Average 101.1 89.2 79.4 73.3 71.7 Median 97.6 90.0 78.5 71.4 73.1 Low 91.7 70.7 63.5 55.0 55.0 Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. *Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 102.5 93.2 79.2 77.2 78.7 Average 96.8 85.9 74.2 72.3 73.2 Median 96.1 85.0 73.3 71.6 74.0 Low 94.0 83.0 68.0 67.4 63.5 Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics; EY analysis. Note: Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants. Where consultant estimates are updated only annually (for example, the EIA), such estimates are included within the range of estimates from 2024 onward (or combined with short-term estimates published by the same consultant) to prevent near-term ranges being impacted by estimates that are not considered to reflect current market dynamics.
  • 14. Appendix Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 14 Henry Hub gas price estimates This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu. ** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics. Bank/broker 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 6.9 5.4 4.8 4.9 4.5 Average 5.3 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.7 Median 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 Low 4.2 3.3 2.7 3.0 3.0 Consultant 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 7.4 5.1 4.5 4.2 4.3 Average 5.7 4.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 Median 5.5 4.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 Low 4.4 3.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 Note: Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants. Where consultant estimates are updated only annually (for example, the EIA and the IEA), such estimates are included within the range of estimates from 2024 onward (or combined with short-term estimates published by the same consultant) to prevent near-term ranges being impacted by estimates that are not considered to reflect current market dynamics. Price estimates derived under the IEA’s “Stated Policies” and “Sustainable Development” scenarios (inflation-adjusted to reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges from 2024 onward.
  • 15. Appendix Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 15 UK NBP gas price estimates This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Bank/broker 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm) High 195.0 170.0 130.0 110.0 95.0 Average 191.8 140.6 96.6 83.6 75.3 Median 192.0 141.3 80.0 70.9 70.9 Low 189.0 110.0 79.7 70.0 60.0 Consultant 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm) High 267.4 220.0 150.0 100.0 102.0 Average 213.4 156.6 99.3 78.5 78.4 Median 246.2 163.0 86.3 86.2 86.1 Low 126.7 86.8 61.6 49.3 47.1 Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the broker’s forecasted foreign exchange rates. ** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics. * Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultant’s forecast of the foreign exchange rate for the purpose of our conversion. Note: Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants. Where consultant estimates are updated only annually, such estimates are included within the range of estimates from 2024 onward (or combined with short-term estimates published by the same consultant) to prevent near-term ranges being impacted by estimates that are not considered to reflect current market dynamics.
  • 16. Appendix Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 16 JKM gas price estimates This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Source: Bloomberg; banks/brokers reports * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu. **Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank/broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Source: Consultants’ websites and reports Bank/broker 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 34.1 25.7 15.9 10.3 Average 31.3 19.4 12.5 10.2 Median 32.9 19.9 11.3 10.2 Low 25.2 12.0 10.2 10.1 Consultant 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 34.0 23.6 21.7 18.2 15.3 Average 30.6 23.5 17.4 15.7 14.4 Median 30.6 23.5 17.4 15.7 14.4 Low 27.1 23.5 13.0 13.2 13.5 Note: Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants.
  • 17. Appendix Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 17 TTF gas price estimates This data is effective as of 13 June 2022. Source: Bloomberg; banks/brokers reports * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu. **Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank/broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Source: Consultants’ websites and reports Bank/broker 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 30.4 25.2 20.2 Average 29.8 24.1 18.6 Median 29.8 24.1 18.6 Low 29.2 23.0 17.0 Consultant 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 32.5 23.0 21.0 16.9 14.1 Average 30.4 22.3 16.1 14.1 13.0 Median 31.3 22.5 15.8 14.2 13.3 Low 26.6 21.4 12.1 11.1 11.3 Note: Consultant ranges include estimates of recognized market consultants.
  • 18. Key contacts Q3 | July 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 18 Important notice Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 13 June 2022. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the market and the views of market participants, an analysis can quickly become outdated. It should be noted that the EY analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are collating the views of market participants. Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose of any value assessment, with price forecasts assessed in the context of other key assumptions, such as resources and reserves classifications, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis. Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader +44 20 7951 7518 Derek Leith EY Global Oil & Gas Tax Leader +44 1224 653 246 Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader +44 20 7951 7009 David Johnston Americas Strategy and Transactions Energy Leader +1 713 750 1527 Gaurav Ghoge EY Global Oil & Gas Strategy Execution Leader + 1 713 750 4890 Paul Bogenrieder EY Global Lead Oil & Gas Analyst +1 813 508 1423
  • 19. EY | Building a better working world EY exists to build a better working world, helping create long-term value for clients, people and society and build trust in the capital markets. Enabled by data and technology, diverse EY teams in over 150 countries provide trust through assurance and help clients grow, transform and operate. Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing our world today. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY’s Global Oil & Gas team can help you As changing demand and pricing volatility transform the oil and gas industry, companies must reshape to thrive in this new energy world. But how do you balance the immediate cost and regulatory pressures of “now” with investment in what comes “next”? EY’s Global Oil & Gas team brings together the breadth of experience and talent needed to approach the entire transformation process. By considering four key pillars of change — structure and culture, customers, technology, and skills and capabilities — we can help you adapt for today and reap the opportunities of tomorrow. And together we can build a better working world. © 2022 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 006013-22Gbl ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, legal or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com