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Case Surfers

Unilever: delivering ice to every
             house
                                      Fedor Chuvilkin
                                    Maksim Sofronov
                                    Victoria Susakova
                                         Yuriy Kotikov
Current distribution network of Unilever requires optimization to achieve the
                         aim of doubling the sales of ice-cream in Russia by 2015
           *See appendices for additional analysis

                      100,0
                                       According to our criteria the distributors are not
                                                      efficient enough
       Premium         25,0                                                                   Global strategy: focus on                       Objective in Russia:
                                                                                                         BRIC                                doubling sales by 2015
                                                               68,0
           CCFOT       20,0                                                         59,4
                                                               10,8
                                              56,1

Type of company        10,0                                    11,8                 15,0
                                              16,0
 Other contracts       10,0                                     9,0                  8,3
                                              10,4              7,0                  7,5
                                                                                              Optimization of
    Warehouse          20,0                   9,0                                    7,5
                                                               15,4                           distribution
                                              6,0
                                              5,7
                                                                                    11,1      •Own network                                        Analysis AS-IS
      Transport        15,0                                    14,0                           •Multiple distributors
                                              9,0                                   10,0
                                                                                              •Logistic services
                      Perfect                NWFD               CFD              SFD&NCFD


            Our analysis shows that Inmarko needs to ramp up its production                     The aim is to increase sales from € 280 mln to € 564 mln; to do that we
                 volume from 69 th tons in 2011 to 106 th tons in 2015                                 need to capture at least 19% of the market value by 2015


     110                                                                                                                                      Current value share (projected)
     100                                                                                                                                      Required value share to double the sales
                                                                                              24   24
      90                                                                                                    22   22
                                                                                                                       21   21          21               20
      80                                                                                                                           19
                                                                                                                                                   18                   19
      70                                                                                                                                                           17
      60
      50
      40
         2007                   2009                 2011         2013               2015


                    Inmarko volume projected (th tons)            Required volume (th tons)    2010          2011       2012         2013            2014           2015
To optimize the distribution network we have assessed each distributor
                                 according to the following criteria

Premium                                                                           %of         type of other
                                 #    Name                 Coverage                    CCFOT                            Stock        Fleet      Total
                                                                                 sales       company contracts
• % of sales charged by a                                                         25    20      10          10            20          15        100
  distributor
                                 1    Arktika        SPB, Novgorod, Pskov        8%     14%     5%         10%           11%         15%        63%
CCFOT                                             SPB, Novgorod, Cherepovets,
                                 2 LED company                                   12%    12%    10%          5%            6%         15%        60%
                                                           Vologda
• % of goods delivered in        3 Sever-Kholod              Komi                24%    5%     10%          5%            2%          5%        51%
  time
                                 4     Alfa               Arkhangelsk            18%    10%    10%          5%            5%          5%        53%
Type of company                  5     Beta              Severodvinsk            18%    11%    10%          5%            5%          5%        54%

• Does a company produce
  ice-cream or only                   Central
                                 1                 Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir     0%     17%    10%          5%           20%         10%        62%
  distribute the goods?              Logistics
                                                    Moscow, Yaroslavl, Tver,
                                 2 Ice Company                                   18%    5%     10%          5%           17%         15%        70%
Other contracts                                          (Kostroma)
                                 3   Snezhok       Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga     18%    10%     5%         10%           13%         15%        71%
• Does it work for our rivals?
                                 4   Logistic +         Ryazan, Tambov           18%    12%    10%          5%            8%         15%        68%
                                                     Orel, Kursk, Belgorod,
                                 5   CentralD                                    0%     15%    10%         10%           20%         15%        70%
                                                      Voronezh, Lipetsk
Warehouse

• Does it have enough stock           Santa          Krasnodar, Stavropol,
                                 1                                               20%    5%      5%          5%           12%          5%        52%
  to meet our needs?                 Company              Tcherkessk
                                 2     FDG        Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran   8%     9%     10%          5%           16%          5%        53%
Transport                                         Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan,
                                 3    Antares                                    8%     19%    10%         10%           12%         15%        74%
                                                             Elista
• Does it have its own fleet?
                                 4     Zero                Volgograd             24%    0%      5%         10%            5%         15%        59%
                                                                                               See appendix for the assessment of potential distributors
Our team has optimized the distributors to maximize the efficiency of the
                          network in each region

NWFD rank 56% :                                                                           NWFD rank 63% :
                         • more orders through Arktika (esp. to St.Petersburg )
                         • replacing Sever-Kholod by dist 4 due to better coverage
Arktika          63%     (Ukhta)
                                                                                           Arktika     67,0%
LED company      60%     • termination of contracts with Beta in favor of Alfa to cover
                         both Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk
                                                                                           LED
                         • developing cooperation with Alfa by signing exclusive           company     60,3%
Sever-Kholod     51%     agreements and granting a premium for higher CCFOT
                         •signing contracts with dist 5 to expand in Karelia               Distr4      66,0%
Alfa             53%
                                                                                           Alfa        59,5%
Beta             54%                                                                       distr5      50,5%

CFD rank 68% :                                                                            CFD rank 67% :
                         • existing distributors in CFD in general meet our               Central
Central Logistics 62%    requirements regarding quality
                         • they provide full coverage of the region and have              Logistics    62,0%
Ice Company       70%    opportunities for increasing their storage capacities to
                         meet the future demand
                                                                                          Snezhok      71,0%
Snezhok           71%    • to eliminate inefficient delivery in the Kostroma region       Logistic +   67,5%
                         we will cooperate with dist 8 and dist 9 instead of working      distr8       67,5%
Logistic +        68%    with Ice Company, which in the short term will decrease
                         the total ranking of the region                                  distr9       63,5%
CentralD          70%                                                                     CentralD     70,0%


SFD&NCFD rank 59%:                                                                        SFD&NCFD rank 63%:
                        • we will pay SantaCo. Extra premium for higher CCFOT and
Santa Company 52%       will encourage it to expand to                                    Santa
                        Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik due to brisk demand in
FDG           53%       summer                                                            Company      56,5%
                        • termination of cooperation with Zero due to lack of
Antares       74%       incentives to promote our products in Volgograd                   FDG          54,3%
                        • we encourage Antares to expand to Volgograd by further
Zero          59%       developing our relations                                          Antares      77,0%
Analysis shows that multiple distribution strategy does not allow us to leverage
  our strengths and therefore needs to be complemented by a series of M&As

  Why do we need our own network?                                         Benefits 1

  1.    To have better impact on market conditions and pricing
  2.    To hold dominant position on the market in the long run
  3.    To reduce costs in the long run
  4.    To eliminate dependency on distributors
  5.    To increase profitability due to elimination of premiums on sales                                     M&As
  How to go about building our own network?                                                                   Organic Growth

  On the graph, we have shown the cost/benefits analysis of the 2
  possible ways of growing: M&As and Organic Growth. Besides, the
  SWOT analysis correlates with this conclusion.                                         0
  Corollary: M&As                                                                            0         1   Costs

NWFD :         Arktika 67%                                                                       Arktika    91%
               Distr4 69%                                                                        Distr4     76%
               Alfa    70%                                •We consider these                      Alfa      75%

CFD :
                                               M          companies to be easy
                                                          targets since either they
                                                          have established business
            Snezhok 71%                                                                          Snezhok 89%
            CentralD 70%                       &          relations with us or we are
                                                          their unique suppliers
                                                          •Acquisition of these
                                                                                                 CentralD 91%


 SFD&NCFD:                                     A          companies will bring about
                                                          fewer costs of distribution.
            Antares       77%                             See appendix 1 for the SWOT analysis   Antares 86%
As a result the distribution network combining multiple distributors and acquired
         companies will be capable of meeting the future demand and helping to double the
                                              sales by 2015
        Final composition of network:
                                                  %of
                                                                     type of other                                      As a result of all the alterations the distribution
#       Name        Coverage                                   CCFOT compan contrac Stock        Fleet         Total
                                                  sales
                                                                     y       ts                                         network of Inmarko in each region will account
                                             25           20       10     10      20        15           100            for the following % according to our rating:
    1 Arktika*      SPB, Novgorod, Pskov             25%          16%    10%    10%    15%           15%          91%   NWFD 76%
                    Arkhangelsk+Severodvin                                                                              CFD 73%
    2 Alfa*                                          25%          16%     5%    10%     5%           15%          76%
                    sk                                                                                                  SFD&NCFD 73%:
    3 distr4*       Ukhta, Syktyvkar                 25%          16%     5%    10%     7%           12%          75%   While currently it is as follows:
                    Murmansk, Apatity,                                                                                  NWFD rank 56%
    4 distr5                                              8%      10%    13%    10%     5%           15%          61%
                    Severodvinsk                                                                                        CFD rank 68%
                                                                                                                        SFD&NCFD 59%

        Central     Moscow, Ivanovo,                                                                                    So far these measures are the most effective to
    1                                                     0%      17%     5%     5%    20%           15%          62%
        Logistics   Vladimir                                                                                            double the sales by 2015
                    Smolensk, Bryansk,
    2 Snezhok*                                       25%          16%    10%    10%    13%           15%          89%
                    Kaluga
                                                                                                                        •Apart from that, we suggest paying more
    3 Logistic +    Ryazan, Tambov                   18%          12%     5%     5%     8%           15%          63%
                                                                                                                        attention to Traditional Trade (kiosks and retail
                    Orel, Kursk, Belgorod,
    4 CentralD*
                    Voronezh, Lipetsk
                                                     25%          16%     5%    10%    20%           15%          91%   chests) in SFD&NCFD region since it is the most
                                                                                                                        effective way of selling ice-cream in touristic
                    Vologda, Yaroslavl,
    5 distr8                                         20%          13%     5%    10%     7%           15%          70%   places
                    Kostroma
    6 distr9        Tver, Vladimir, Moscow                9%      13%    10%     5%    12%           15%          64%   •In NWFD ice-cream should be sold primarily
                                                                                                                        through Key accounts and Modern Trade as
        Santa       Krasnodar, Stavropol,
                                                                                                                        these means are more popular among people
    1                                                17%          13%     5%     5%    12%           15%          67%   living in severe climatic conditions
        Company     Tcherkessk
                    Nalchik, Vladikavkaz,                                                                               •In CFD regions, especially in big cities, it is
    2 FGD                                                 8%      13%    10%     5%    16%           15%          67%
                    Nazran                                                                                              preferable to use a combination of these
                    Kalmykia, Rostov,
    3 Antares*
                    Astrakhan, Elista
                                                     25%          19%     5%    10%    12%           15%          86%   methods

* Acquired company
Appendices
Appendix 1      SWOT analysis of M&A



 Strengths:                               Weaknesses:
 • Time and money savings                 • High transactional costs
 • Reduction of fixed costs (salaries)    • Difficulties in integration of acquired
 • Better control of distribution         companies in Inmarko’s structure
 network




 Opportunities:
                                          Threats:
 • Lots of potential targets to acquire
                                          • Difficulties in negotiating (some
 (small companies which lack
                                          companies may be reluctant to be
 resources for development)
                                          acquired)
 • Decrease in competition among
 distributors (favorable situation for
 distributors working for Inmarko)
Appendix 2                 Market growth and production level (projections)




                                                   2006      2007      2008      2009      2010      2011      2012     2013      2014     2015

value share projected                                         17,4      20,1      22,7     23,65     22,15 20,69861 19,34232    18,0749 16,89053

value share required                                          17,4      20,1      22,7     23,65     22,15 21,31664 20,51463 19,74279        19

projected growth rate                        -0,06553

required growth rate                        0,962376



                                                   2006      2007      2008      2009      2010      2011      2012     2013      2014     2015

volume projected, th tons                           388       412       423       381       396       404       424 444,4871 465,9641 488,4788

average volume share                               17,21

inmarko production projected th tons          66,7748      70,9052   72,7983   65,5701   68,1516   69,5284   72,9704 76,49623 80,19241   84,0672

inmarko production required, th tons          66,7748      70,9052   72,7983   65,5701   68,1516   69,5284       74       85        93      106



average price for inmarko icecream, rub for kilo                                                      163     174,41 186,6187   199,682 213,6597

inflation                                           0,07

assumptions
Appendix 3                       Analysis of current and potential distributors

     #            Name                               Coverage                    %of sales   CCFOT   type of company   contracts with competitors   Warehouses   transport   Total
                                                                                  25,00      20,00        10,00                  10,00                20,00       15,00      100,00
     1            distr1                        SPB, Petrozavodsk                  0,08      0,12         0,10                   0,05                  0,08        0,05       0,48
     2            distr2                Velikiy Novgorod, Cherepovets, SPB         0,03      0,10         0,10                   0,10                  0,08        0,12       0,52
     3            distr3                      Velikiy Novgorod, Pskov              0,25      0,07         0,05                   0,05                  0,04        0,13       0,59
     4            distr4                         Ukhta, Syktyvkar                  0,15      0,08         0,10                   0,10                  0,07        0,12       0,62
     5            distr5                 Murmansk, Apatity, Severodvinsk           0,08      0,10         0,10                   0,10                  0,05        0,05       0,48
     6            distr6                           Arkhangelsk                     0,18      0,09         0,10                   0,05                  0,06        0,05       0,52
     7            distr7                           Arkhangelsk                     0,08      0,08         0,10                   0,10                  0,04        0,05       0,45
     8            distr8                   Vologda, Yaroslavl, Kostroma            0,20      0,09         0,05                   0,10                  0,07        0,13       0,64
     9            distr9                      Tver, Vladimir, Moscow               0,08      0,13         0,10                   0,05                  0,12        0,15       0,62
     10          distr10                    Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Ivanovo           0,03      0,11         0,10                   0,05                  0,12        0,15       0,56
     11          distr11                    Moscow, Ryazan, Smolensk               0,05      0,13         0,10                   0,05                  0,09        0,13       0,55
     12          distr12                     Moscow, Kaluga, Bryansk               0,08      0,10         0,10                   0,10                  0,09        0,05       0,51
     13          distr13                     Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod              0,20      0,04         0,05                   0,05                  0,08        0,05       0,47
     14          distr14                           Orel, Lipetsk                   0,23      0,08         0,10                   0,10                  0,06        0,05       0,62
     15          distr15                             Voronezh                      0,20      0,10         0,10                   0,10                  0,07        0,05       0,62
     16          distr16                    Voronezh, Belgorod, Lipetsk            0,03      0,11         0,10                   0,05                  0,08        0,13       0,50
     17          distr17                             Moscow                        0,00      0,14         0,10                   0,05                  0,09        0,15       0,53
     18          distr18                       Volgograd, Astrakhan                0,08      0,08         0,10                   0,05                  0,07        0,05       0,43
     19          distr19                        Volgograd, Rostov                  0,03      0,09         0,05                   0,05                  0,07        0,05       0,34
     20          distr20                     Elista, Rostov, Astrakhan             0,03      0,14         0,10                   0,05                  0,07        0,15       0,54
     21          distr21                       Krasnodar, Stavropol                0,08      0,10         0,10                   0,05                  0,06        0,15       0,54
     22          distr22                   Grozny, Machachkala, Narzan             0,10      0,09         0,05                   0,05                  0,05        0,05       0,39
     23          distr23                 Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, Tcherkessk          0,13      0,13         0,10                   0,05                  0,07        0,15       0,62
    AS-IS                                                                                                                                                        average      0,53
   NWFD
     1           Arktika                       SPB, Novgorod, Pskov                0,08      0,14         0,05                   0,10                  0,11        0,15       0,63
     2        LED company              SPB, Novgorod, Cherepovets, Vologda         0,12      0,12         0,10                   0,05                  0,06        0,15       0,60
     3        Sever-Kholod                             Komi                        0,24      0,05         0,10                   0,05                  0,02        0,05       0,51
     4             Alfa                            Arkhangelsk                     0,18      0,10         0,10                   0,05                  0,05        0,05       0,53
     5             Beta                            Severodvinsk                    0,18      0,11         0,10                   0,05                  0,05        0,05       0,54
    CFD                                                                                                                                                          average      0,56
     1       Central Logistics              Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir              0,00      0,17         0,10                   0,05                  0,20        0,10       0,62
     2        Ice Company              Moscow, Yaroslavl, Tver, (Kostroma)         0,18      0,05         0,10                   0,05                  0,17        0,15       0,70
     3           Snezhok                    Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga              0,18      0,10         0,05                   0,10                  0,13        0,15       0,71
     4          Logistic +                       Ryazan, Tambov                    0,18      0,12         0,10                   0,05                  0,08        0,15       0,68
     5          CentralD              Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Lipetsk     0,00      0,15         0,10                   0,10                  0,20        0,15       0,70
  SFD&NCFD                                                                                                                                                       average      0,68
     1       Santa Company               Krasnodar, Stavropol, Tcherkessk          0,20      0,05         0,05                   0,05                  0,12        0,05       0,52
     2             FDG                     Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran            0,08      0,09         0,10                   0,05                  0,16        0,05       0,53
     3           Antares                Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan, Elista        0,08      0,19         0,10                   0,10                  0,12        0,15       0,74
     4             Zero                             Volgograd                      0,24      0,00         0,05                   0,10                  0,05        0,15       0,59
                                                                                                                                                                 average      0,59
Appendix 4                        Optimization of current distributors




                                                                                                                                                        wareho
 possible distr         0,1                             Coverage                       %of sales   CCFOT   type of company contracts with competitors          transport   total
                                                                                                                                                         uses
    NWFD
       1              Arktika                     SPB, Novgorod, Pskov                   0,08      0,14         0,05                  0,10               0,15    0,15      0,67
       2           LED company            SPB, Novgorod, Cherepovets, Vologda            0,12      0,12         0,10                  0,05               0,06    0,15      0,60
       3               Distr4                       Ukhta, Syktyvkar                     0,15      0,10         0,12                  0,10               0,07    0,13      0,67
       4                Alfa                          Arkhangelsk                        0,18      0,09         0,13                  0,10               0,05    0,05      0,60
       5               distr5               Murmansk, Apatity, Severodvinsk              0,08      0,10         0,13                  0,10               0,05    0,05      0,51
     CFD                                                                                                                                                                   0,61
       1          Central Logistics            Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir                 0,00      0,17         0,10                  0,05               0,20    0,10      0,62
       2              Snezhok                  Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga                 0,18      0,10         0,05                  0,10               0,13    0,15      0,71
       3             Logistic +                     Ryazan, Tambov                       0,18      0,12         0,10                  0,05               0,08    0,15      0,68
       4               distr8                 Vologda, Yaroslavl, Kostroma               0,20      0,13         0,05                  0,10               0,07    0,13      0,68
       5               distr9                    Tver, Vladimir, Moscow                  0,09      0,13         0,10                  0,05               0,12    0,15      0,64
       6             CentralD           Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Lipetsk         0,00      0,15         0,10                  0,10               0,20    0,15      0,70
  SFD&NCFD                                                                                                                                                                 0,67
       1          Santa Company             Krasnodar, Stavropol, Tcherkessk             0,20      0,10         0,05                  0,05               0,12    0,05      0,57
       2                FDG                   Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran               0,08      0,10         0,10                  0,05               0,16    0,05      0,54
       3              Antares         Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan, Elista, Volgograd     0,08      0,19         0,10                  0,10               0,15    0,15      0,77
       4                                                                                                                                                                   0,63
Appendix 5                  Optimization of current distributors taking into consideration M&As




                                                                                       type of   contracts with
     #           Name                     Coverage                  %of sales CCFOT                               warehouses transport   total
                                                                                      company     competitors
 NWFD
     1          Arktika             SPB, Novgorod, Pskov              0,25   0,16       0,10         0,10            0,15      0,15      0,91
     2           Alfa             Arkhangelsk+Severodvinsk            0,25   0,16       0,05         0,10            0,05      0,15      0,76
     3           distr4                Ukhta, Syktyvkar               0,25   0,16       0,05         0,10            0,07      0,12      0,75
     4           distr5       Murmansk, Apatity, Severodvinsk         0,08   0,10       0,13         0,10            0,05      0,15      0,61
    CFD                                                                                                                                          0,76
                Central
     1                           Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir            0,00   0,17       0,05         0,05            0,20      0,15      0,62
               Logistics
     2         Snezhok            Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga           0,25   0,16       0,10         0,10            0,13      0,15      0,89
     3         Logistic +              Ryazan, Tambov                 0,18   0,12       0,05         0,05            0,08      0,15      0,63
                               Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh,
     4         CentralD                                               0,25   0,16       0,05         0,10            0,20      0,15      0,91
                                             Lipetsk
     5           distr8         Vologda, Yaroslavl, Kostroma          0,20   0,13       0,05         0,10            0,07      0,15      0,70
     6           distr9            Tver, Vladimir, Moscow             0,09   0,13       0,10         0,05            0,12      0,15      0,64
  SFD&NCFD                                                                                                                                       0,73
     1       Santa Company    Krasnodar, Stavropol, Tcherkessk        0,17   0,13       0,05         0,05            0,12      0,15      0,67
     2           FGD             Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran         0,08   0,13       0,10         0,05            0,16      0,15      0,67
     3          Antares       Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan, Elista     0,25   0,19       0,05         0,10            0,12      0,15      0,86
                                                                                                                                                 0,73

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Case surfers

  • 1. Case Surfers Unilever: delivering ice to every house Fedor Chuvilkin Maksim Sofronov Victoria Susakova Yuriy Kotikov
  • 2. Current distribution network of Unilever requires optimization to achieve the aim of doubling the sales of ice-cream in Russia by 2015 *See appendices for additional analysis 100,0 According to our criteria the distributors are not efficient enough Premium 25,0 Global strategy: focus on Objective in Russia: BRIC doubling sales by 2015 68,0 CCFOT 20,0 59,4 10,8 56,1 Type of company 10,0 11,8 15,0 16,0 Other contracts 10,0 9,0 8,3 10,4 7,0 7,5 Optimization of Warehouse 20,0 9,0 7,5 15,4 distribution 6,0 5,7 11,1 •Own network Analysis AS-IS Transport 15,0 14,0 •Multiple distributors 9,0 10,0 •Logistic services Perfect NWFD CFD SFD&NCFD Our analysis shows that Inmarko needs to ramp up its production The aim is to increase sales from € 280 mln to € 564 mln; to do that we volume from 69 th tons in 2011 to 106 th tons in 2015 need to capture at least 19% of the market value by 2015 110 Current value share (projected) 100 Required value share to double the sales 24 24 90 22 22 21 21 21 20 80 19 18 19 70 17 60 50 40 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Inmarko volume projected (th tons) Required volume (th tons) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 3. To optimize the distribution network we have assessed each distributor according to the following criteria Premium %of type of other # Name Coverage CCFOT Stock Fleet Total sales company contracts • % of sales charged by a 25 20 10 10 20 15 100 distributor 1 Arktika SPB, Novgorod, Pskov 8% 14% 5% 10% 11% 15% 63% CCFOT SPB, Novgorod, Cherepovets, 2 LED company 12% 12% 10% 5% 6% 15% 60% Vologda • % of goods delivered in 3 Sever-Kholod Komi 24% 5% 10% 5% 2% 5% 51% time 4 Alfa Arkhangelsk 18% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 53% Type of company 5 Beta Severodvinsk 18% 11% 10% 5% 5% 5% 54% • Does a company produce ice-cream or only Central 1 Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir 0% 17% 10% 5% 20% 10% 62% distribute the goods? Logistics Moscow, Yaroslavl, Tver, 2 Ice Company 18% 5% 10% 5% 17% 15% 70% Other contracts (Kostroma) 3 Snezhok Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga 18% 10% 5% 10% 13% 15% 71% • Does it work for our rivals? 4 Logistic + Ryazan, Tambov 18% 12% 10% 5% 8% 15% 68% Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, 5 CentralD 0% 15% 10% 10% 20% 15% 70% Voronezh, Lipetsk Warehouse • Does it have enough stock Santa Krasnodar, Stavropol, 1 20% 5% 5% 5% 12% 5% 52% to meet our needs? Company Tcherkessk 2 FDG Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran 8% 9% 10% 5% 16% 5% 53% Transport Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan, 3 Antares 8% 19% 10% 10% 12% 15% 74% Elista • Does it have its own fleet? 4 Zero Volgograd 24% 0% 5% 10% 5% 15% 59% See appendix for the assessment of potential distributors
  • 4. Our team has optimized the distributors to maximize the efficiency of the network in each region NWFD rank 56% : NWFD rank 63% : • more orders through Arktika (esp. to St.Petersburg ) • replacing Sever-Kholod by dist 4 due to better coverage Arktika 63% (Ukhta) Arktika 67,0% LED company 60% • termination of contracts with Beta in favor of Alfa to cover both Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk LED • developing cooperation with Alfa by signing exclusive company 60,3% Sever-Kholod 51% agreements and granting a premium for higher CCFOT •signing contracts with dist 5 to expand in Karelia Distr4 66,0% Alfa 53% Alfa 59,5% Beta 54% distr5 50,5% CFD rank 68% : CFD rank 67% : • existing distributors in CFD in general meet our Central Central Logistics 62% requirements regarding quality • they provide full coverage of the region and have Logistics 62,0% Ice Company 70% opportunities for increasing their storage capacities to meet the future demand Snezhok 71,0% Snezhok 71% • to eliminate inefficient delivery in the Kostroma region Logistic + 67,5% we will cooperate with dist 8 and dist 9 instead of working distr8 67,5% Logistic + 68% with Ice Company, which in the short term will decrease the total ranking of the region distr9 63,5% CentralD 70% CentralD 70,0% SFD&NCFD rank 59%: SFD&NCFD rank 63%: • we will pay SantaCo. Extra premium for higher CCFOT and Santa Company 52% will encourage it to expand to Santa Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik due to brisk demand in FDG 53% summer Company 56,5% • termination of cooperation with Zero due to lack of Antares 74% incentives to promote our products in Volgograd FDG 54,3% • we encourage Antares to expand to Volgograd by further Zero 59% developing our relations Antares 77,0%
  • 5. Analysis shows that multiple distribution strategy does not allow us to leverage our strengths and therefore needs to be complemented by a series of M&As Why do we need our own network? Benefits 1 1. To have better impact on market conditions and pricing 2. To hold dominant position on the market in the long run 3. To reduce costs in the long run 4. To eliminate dependency on distributors 5. To increase profitability due to elimination of premiums on sales M&As How to go about building our own network? Organic Growth On the graph, we have shown the cost/benefits analysis of the 2 possible ways of growing: M&As and Organic Growth. Besides, the SWOT analysis correlates with this conclusion. 0 Corollary: M&As 0 1 Costs NWFD : Arktika 67% Arktika 91% Distr4 69% Distr4 76% Alfa 70% •We consider these Alfa 75% CFD : M companies to be easy targets since either they have established business Snezhok 71% Snezhok 89% CentralD 70% & relations with us or we are their unique suppliers •Acquisition of these CentralD 91% SFD&NCFD: A companies will bring about fewer costs of distribution. Antares 77% See appendix 1 for the SWOT analysis Antares 86%
  • 6. As a result the distribution network combining multiple distributors and acquired companies will be capable of meeting the future demand and helping to double the sales by 2015 Final composition of network: %of type of other As a result of all the alterations the distribution # Name Coverage CCFOT compan contrac Stock Fleet Total sales y ts network of Inmarko in each region will account 25 20 10 10 20 15 100 for the following % according to our rating: 1 Arktika* SPB, Novgorod, Pskov 25% 16% 10% 10% 15% 15% 91% NWFD 76% Arkhangelsk+Severodvin CFD 73% 2 Alfa* 25% 16% 5% 10% 5% 15% 76% sk SFD&NCFD 73%: 3 distr4* Ukhta, Syktyvkar 25% 16% 5% 10% 7% 12% 75% While currently it is as follows: Murmansk, Apatity, NWFD rank 56% 4 distr5 8% 10% 13% 10% 5% 15% 61% Severodvinsk CFD rank 68% SFD&NCFD 59% Central Moscow, Ivanovo, So far these measures are the most effective to 1 0% 17% 5% 5% 20% 15% 62% Logistics Vladimir double the sales by 2015 Smolensk, Bryansk, 2 Snezhok* 25% 16% 10% 10% 13% 15% 89% Kaluga •Apart from that, we suggest paying more 3 Logistic + Ryazan, Tambov 18% 12% 5% 5% 8% 15% 63% attention to Traditional Trade (kiosks and retail Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, 4 CentralD* Voronezh, Lipetsk 25% 16% 5% 10% 20% 15% 91% chests) in SFD&NCFD region since it is the most effective way of selling ice-cream in touristic Vologda, Yaroslavl, 5 distr8 20% 13% 5% 10% 7% 15% 70% places Kostroma 6 distr9 Tver, Vladimir, Moscow 9% 13% 10% 5% 12% 15% 64% •In NWFD ice-cream should be sold primarily through Key accounts and Modern Trade as Santa Krasnodar, Stavropol, these means are more popular among people 1 17% 13% 5% 5% 12% 15% 67% living in severe climatic conditions Company Tcherkessk Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, •In CFD regions, especially in big cities, it is 2 FGD 8% 13% 10% 5% 16% 15% 67% Nazran preferable to use a combination of these Kalmykia, Rostov, 3 Antares* Astrakhan, Elista 25% 19% 5% 10% 12% 15% 86% methods * Acquired company
  • 8. Appendix 1 SWOT analysis of M&A Strengths: Weaknesses: • Time and money savings • High transactional costs • Reduction of fixed costs (salaries) • Difficulties in integration of acquired • Better control of distribution companies in Inmarko’s structure network Opportunities: Threats: • Lots of potential targets to acquire • Difficulties in negotiating (some (small companies which lack companies may be reluctant to be resources for development) acquired) • Decrease in competition among distributors (favorable situation for distributors working for Inmarko)
  • 9. Appendix 2 Market growth and production level (projections) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 value share projected 17,4 20,1 22,7 23,65 22,15 20,69861 19,34232 18,0749 16,89053 value share required 17,4 20,1 22,7 23,65 22,15 21,31664 20,51463 19,74279 19 projected growth rate -0,06553 required growth rate 0,962376 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 volume projected, th tons 388 412 423 381 396 404 424 444,4871 465,9641 488,4788 average volume share 17,21 inmarko production projected th tons 66,7748 70,9052 72,7983 65,5701 68,1516 69,5284 72,9704 76,49623 80,19241 84,0672 inmarko production required, th tons 66,7748 70,9052 72,7983 65,5701 68,1516 69,5284 74 85 93 106 average price for inmarko icecream, rub for kilo 163 174,41 186,6187 199,682 213,6597 inflation 0,07 assumptions
  • 10. Appendix 3 Analysis of current and potential distributors # Name Coverage %of sales CCFOT type of company contracts with competitors Warehouses transport Total 25,00 20,00 10,00 10,00 20,00 15,00 100,00 1 distr1 SPB, Petrozavodsk 0,08 0,12 0,10 0,05 0,08 0,05 0,48 2 distr2 Velikiy Novgorod, Cherepovets, SPB 0,03 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,08 0,12 0,52 3 distr3 Velikiy Novgorod, Pskov 0,25 0,07 0,05 0,05 0,04 0,13 0,59 4 distr4 Ukhta, Syktyvkar 0,15 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,07 0,12 0,62 5 distr5 Murmansk, Apatity, Severodvinsk 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,05 0,05 0,48 6 distr6 Arkhangelsk 0,18 0,09 0,10 0,05 0,06 0,05 0,52 7 distr7 Arkhangelsk 0,08 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,04 0,05 0,45 8 distr8 Vologda, Yaroslavl, Kostroma 0,20 0,09 0,05 0,10 0,07 0,13 0,64 9 distr9 Tver, Vladimir, Moscow 0,08 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,12 0,15 0,62 10 distr10 Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Ivanovo 0,03 0,11 0,10 0,05 0,12 0,15 0,56 11 distr11 Moscow, Ryazan, Smolensk 0,05 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,09 0,13 0,55 12 distr12 Moscow, Kaluga, Bryansk 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,05 0,51 13 distr13 Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod 0,20 0,04 0,05 0,05 0,08 0,05 0,47 14 distr14 Orel, Lipetsk 0,23 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,06 0,05 0,62 15 distr15 Voronezh 0,20 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,07 0,05 0,62 16 distr16 Voronezh, Belgorod, Lipetsk 0,03 0,11 0,10 0,05 0,08 0,13 0,50 17 distr17 Moscow 0,00 0,14 0,10 0,05 0,09 0,15 0,53 18 distr18 Volgograd, Astrakhan 0,08 0,08 0,10 0,05 0,07 0,05 0,43 19 distr19 Volgograd, Rostov 0,03 0,09 0,05 0,05 0,07 0,05 0,34 20 distr20 Elista, Rostov, Astrakhan 0,03 0,14 0,10 0,05 0,07 0,15 0,54 21 distr21 Krasnodar, Stavropol 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,05 0,06 0,15 0,54 22 distr22 Grozny, Machachkala, Narzan 0,10 0,09 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,39 23 distr23 Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, Tcherkessk 0,13 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,07 0,15 0,62 AS-IS average 0,53 NWFD 1 Arktika SPB, Novgorod, Pskov 0,08 0,14 0,05 0,10 0,11 0,15 0,63 2 LED company SPB, Novgorod, Cherepovets, Vologda 0,12 0,12 0,10 0,05 0,06 0,15 0,60 3 Sever-Kholod Komi 0,24 0,05 0,10 0,05 0,02 0,05 0,51 4 Alfa Arkhangelsk 0,18 0,10 0,10 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,53 5 Beta Severodvinsk 0,18 0,11 0,10 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,54 CFD average 0,56 1 Central Logistics Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir 0,00 0,17 0,10 0,05 0,20 0,10 0,62 2 Ice Company Moscow, Yaroslavl, Tver, (Kostroma) 0,18 0,05 0,10 0,05 0,17 0,15 0,70 3 Snezhok Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga 0,18 0,10 0,05 0,10 0,13 0,15 0,71 4 Logistic + Ryazan, Tambov 0,18 0,12 0,10 0,05 0,08 0,15 0,68 5 CentralD Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Lipetsk 0,00 0,15 0,10 0,10 0,20 0,15 0,70 SFD&NCFD average 0,68 1 Santa Company Krasnodar, Stavropol, Tcherkessk 0,20 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,12 0,05 0,52 2 FDG Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran 0,08 0,09 0,10 0,05 0,16 0,05 0,53 3 Antares Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan, Elista 0,08 0,19 0,10 0,10 0,12 0,15 0,74 4 Zero Volgograd 0,24 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,05 0,15 0,59 average 0,59
  • 11. Appendix 4 Optimization of current distributors wareho possible distr 0,1 Coverage %of sales CCFOT type of company contracts with competitors transport total uses NWFD 1 Arktika SPB, Novgorod, Pskov 0,08 0,14 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,15 0,67 2 LED company SPB, Novgorod, Cherepovets, Vologda 0,12 0,12 0,10 0,05 0,06 0,15 0,60 3 Distr4 Ukhta, Syktyvkar 0,15 0,10 0,12 0,10 0,07 0,13 0,67 4 Alfa Arkhangelsk 0,18 0,09 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,05 0,60 5 distr5 Murmansk, Apatity, Severodvinsk 0,08 0,10 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,05 0,51 CFD 0,61 1 Central Logistics Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir 0,00 0,17 0,10 0,05 0,20 0,10 0,62 2 Snezhok Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga 0,18 0,10 0,05 0,10 0,13 0,15 0,71 3 Logistic + Ryazan, Tambov 0,18 0,12 0,10 0,05 0,08 0,15 0,68 4 distr8 Vologda, Yaroslavl, Kostroma 0,20 0,13 0,05 0,10 0,07 0,13 0,68 5 distr9 Tver, Vladimir, Moscow 0,09 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,12 0,15 0,64 6 CentralD Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Lipetsk 0,00 0,15 0,10 0,10 0,20 0,15 0,70 SFD&NCFD 0,67 1 Santa Company Krasnodar, Stavropol, Tcherkessk 0,20 0,10 0,05 0,05 0,12 0,05 0,57 2 FDG Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,05 0,16 0,05 0,54 3 Antares Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan, Elista, Volgograd 0,08 0,19 0,10 0,10 0,15 0,15 0,77 4 0,63
  • 12. Appendix 5 Optimization of current distributors taking into consideration M&As type of contracts with # Name Coverage %of sales CCFOT warehouses transport total company competitors NWFD 1 Arktika SPB, Novgorod, Pskov 0,25 0,16 0,10 0,10 0,15 0,15 0,91 2 Alfa Arkhangelsk+Severodvinsk 0,25 0,16 0,05 0,10 0,05 0,15 0,76 3 distr4 Ukhta, Syktyvkar 0,25 0,16 0,05 0,10 0,07 0,12 0,75 4 distr5 Murmansk, Apatity, Severodvinsk 0,08 0,10 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,15 0,61 CFD 0,76 Central 1 Moscow, Ivanovo, Vladimir 0,00 0,17 0,05 0,05 0,20 0,15 0,62 Logistics 2 Snezhok Smolensk, Bryansk, Kaluga 0,25 0,16 0,10 0,10 0,13 0,15 0,89 3 Logistic + Ryazan, Tambov 0,18 0,12 0,05 0,05 0,08 0,15 0,63 Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, 4 CentralD 0,25 0,16 0,05 0,10 0,20 0,15 0,91 Lipetsk 5 distr8 Vologda, Yaroslavl, Kostroma 0,20 0,13 0,05 0,10 0,07 0,15 0,70 6 distr9 Tver, Vladimir, Moscow 0,09 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,12 0,15 0,64 SFD&NCFD 0,73 1 Santa Company Krasnodar, Stavropol, Tcherkessk 0,17 0,13 0,05 0,05 0,12 0,15 0,67 2 FGD Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Nazran 0,08 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,16 0,15 0,67 3 Antares Kalmykia, Rostov, Astrakhan, Elista 0,25 0,19 0,05 0,10 0,12 0,15 0,86 0,73